SCOTT RICKENBACH
Brewers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Brewers +171
Anything can happen on any given day and certainly anything can happen in the short term. However, in the long term, there is no denying that money line wagering is all about value. In other words, laying big prices eventually catches up with people. That is why finding a dog with sizable line value can be very rewarding and this is a very nice underdog situation here. The Blue Jays are very nearly a 2 to 1 favorite here even though they have just 1 win in their last 6 games. Also, the Jays have been held to 7 hits or less in 4 of their last 5 games. They could struggle with Wily Peralta who is coming off of a solid outing against the Rockies and against whom Toronto has very little experience. As for the Brewers and facing J.A. Happ. The Toronto southpaw has given up 15 earned runs in the less than 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts against Milwaukee. Even though the Brewers have also been struggling at the plate early this season, they have scored 4 runs or more in 5 of their 7 games. This is much better than the Blue Jays who have been held to 2 runs or less in 4 of their 6 games! The Josh Donaldson injury (even if he plays could be hindered) also does not help Toronto's situation for Tuesday night. All in all, it's big dog value to be able to fade a 1-5 team and I'll grab that value with the road team here.
JOHN MARTIN
Pelicans vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers -3
Most think the Lakers should be tanking, but now it doesn't really matter as they will end up with the third-worst record in the league. The Lakers haven't listened, winning four straight games coming in while going 5-0 ATS in their last five games. Now they play their home finale and will want to keep this winning streak going. The New Orleans Pelicans are tanking, going 0-4 S & 0-4 ATS in their last four games. They have decided to sit their two best players in DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis down the stretch, which is the clear sign of a tank job. This is now one of the worst lineups in the NBA without these two. I'm a little surprised the Lakers aren't favored by more in all honesty.
BRANDON LEE
Braves vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins -130
Miami is worth a look here in their 2017 home opener against the Braves. The Marlins just took 2 of 3 against the Mets and are a respectable 3-3 to start out with 6 road games against Washington and New York. Atlanta is 1-5 and playing their 3rd straight series away from home to open the season. I know it wasn't a great first start for Daniel Straily, but it came against a loaded Nationals lineup that has been on fire out of the gate. Straily has a history of pitching well at home, wherever he calls home, as he is 13-3 over the last 2 seasons at home and 7-1 when facing a division opponent. Atlanta counters with the ageless Bartolo Colon, who pitched well in his first outing, but it's going to an up and down year for the 43-year-old and I'm guessing he struggles a little more on the road than at home.
DAVE PRICE
Rangers vs. Angels
Play:Rangers +106
The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Texas Rangers today with ace Cole Hamels on the mound. Hamels has been the model of consistency throughout his big league career. He has also owned the Los Angeles Angels, going 2-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.121 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them. Tyler Scaggs gave up 5 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings at Oakland in his first start this season. Skaggs sports a 5.49 ERA and 1.576 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts versus Texas. The Rangers are 16-3 in Hamels' last 19 starts vs. American League West opponents. Texas is 35-11 in Hamels' last 46 starts overall. The Angels are 2-8 in Skaggs' last 10 starts.
INFO PLAYS
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -128
I'm taking Red Sox tonight. Here are some systems backing our pick. Boston is 78-40 (+34.7 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games with no home runs since 1997. Baltimore is 40-64 (-24.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
JIMMY BOYD
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -115
I really like the value here with Boston as a short home favorite against the Orioles. The Red Sox aren't going to take this one lightly, as they just lost 3 of 4 at Detroit. They are a perfect 2-0 at home and I just don't think they are getting enough respect with the game being at Fenway. Baltimore will give the ball to Dylan Bundy, who is a promising young starter and fresh off a great first start against the Blue Jays, where he allowed 1 run on 4 hits with 8 strikeouts in 7 innings. That was at home, where Bundy had a 3.14 ERA in 19 appearances (8 starts) last season. He had a 5.21 ERA on the road and was absolutely awful in his 3 starts against the Red Sox, posting a 7.98 ERA and 1.978 WHIP, while failing to complete 6 innings in all 3 outings.
Boston counters with Drew Pomeranz, who is a big wild card for this season. Pomeranz was outstanding with the Padres early last year, but really struggled after coming over to the Red Sox in a trade. The thing is, he wasn't 100% and his numbers were going to get worse going from the NL West to the AL East. He got things squared away in the offseason and while he will be limited in his first outing, I expect him to pitch well. Even if he doesn't, still a great chance the Red Sox offense bails us out for the win.
TEDDY DAVIS
Brewers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -1½
Blue Jays are now due for a blowout win. They will get a great chance here going against Willy Peralta who I am no fan of. Sure he had a good first outing but I need to see more than one game to believe it. Jays are off to a rough start but now have had a day of rest and returning home for their first game of the season. The excitement will be there and I believe they win easily here
JACK JONES
Mariners +114
The Seattle Mariners have gotten off to a rough 2-6 start this season. They played their first seven games on the road though against the Astros and Angels, and lost three times by one run while blowing numerous leads late.
The Mariners played their home opener yesterday and won 6-0. Now I look for them to add another win Tuesday behind Ariel Miranda, who is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in two career starts against Houston.
Miranda faced Joe Musgrove in Houston in his first start this season and took him down. He was a +135 underdog in that matchup, and now he's a home underdog again in the rematch. I think the value is there to pull the trigger here.
Seattle is a sensational 14-2 (+13.8 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons. The Mariners are 6-1 in Miranda's last seven starts. Seattle is 6-0 in Miranda's last six starts vs. AL West opponents.
BLACK WIDOW
Nuggets vs. Mavericks
Play: Nuggets +2
Bets against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Dallas) ravening a loss vs opponent against an opponent that's off a loss to a division rival are 89-46 ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Mavericks are 1-8 in their last nine games overall and clearly disinterested here down the stretch as they are playing a bunch of their young guys.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +107 over BOSTON
Drew Pomeranz (LHP) shot out of the gate in the Padres rotation last year and was then dealt to Boston for a playoff push, but he limped to the finish line (6.61 Sept ERA, forearm issues). Pomeranz relied heavily on his knockout curve, which lends credence to his swing and miss gains but his poor control is still an issue and his subpar first-pitch strike rate hints it's not going away. The first half version of Pomeranz is not coming back either. Pomeranz will now make his first start of the season after being placed on the disabled list with a left flexor strain. Don't expect him to pitch deep into this game. Last season he threw up a dud in his lone start against Baltimore and he really struggled in six starts at Fenway, going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
Dylan Bundy (RHP) made first pitch strikes and swings and misses the name of his game in his first start of 2017 versus the Blue Jays, where he had a 76% first-pitch strike rate and 17% swing and miss rate. If he can keep those numbers up, a breakout season is well within his reach. We wrote about Bundy that day and suggested that the window to buy low on him is closing fast. That still applies, as his first start this year and second half of last year gives us a glimpse of his upside. Bundy’s eight K’s and no walks in his season debut against Toronto was no fluke. His strikeouts surged behind a swing and miss uptick in his final eight starts last year after getting off to a late start and making just 14 starts all season. Bundy taking back a tag is such a better option here than spotting a price with the struggling out of the gate Red Sox with a weak starter going.
Milwaukee +167 over TORONTO
It’s the Blue Jays home opener and the Rogers Center will be jam packed with 50,000+ but the Blue Jays have struggled out of the gate with just one victory in six games. During the six games on the road to open the season, the Jays suffered two walk-off losses, an eighth-inning blown save, a start by Francisco Liriano that only lasted a third of an inning, a trip to the disabled list for J.P. Howell and only five innings out of 54 in which they managed to score more than a single run. Maybe the Jays get off the mattress here but we’re not in the prediction business. We’re in the value business and Toronto is overpriced here because they’re at home and the market perception is that the Brewers are a bottom feeder while the Jays are contenders. The market also pays a lot of attention to surface stats and in that regard, J.A. Happ looks real good.
Happ was an absolute force at home last season, where in 15 starts he went 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 90 innings. He started this season strong with a nine strikeout performance in Baltimore too so what's there not to like about him? Well, for starters, his collection of base skills is more average than good. Once his fortunate hit rate goes up (was 27% last year) and his strand rate comes down (77% last year) his shiny surface stats will not look as pretty. Happ is not a bad pitcher but he’s nowhere near the dominant pitcher he was a year ago plus one start this year. There's some significant regression coming here, therefore Happ must be faded at these inflated prices.
Milwaukee is 2-5 to open the year. However, they opened with four games against the Rockies followed by three against the Cubbies. They lost by one run in two of the three losses to Colorado and lost by two runs in the other. They also defeated Chicago one out of three games and scored five runs or more in four of their seven games so far. In the last 30 games of last season, this audacious gang of power/speed, aggressive, positionally flexible nobodies (plus star Ryan Braun and top prospect Orlando Arcia) forged a 17-13 record on 132 runs scored. In those 30 games, the club’s new faces stole 34 bases (on 47 attempts), and also drew 90 walks and slugged 46 home runs. This is an undervalued team that not many know a lot about and then there’s Wily Peralta. Peralta surged down the stretch of last season, where in his last 10 starts he went 3-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. His skills during that time supported the results (3.66 xERA, 51% GB% with a strong K/BB ratio). Peralta took on the Rockies in his first start of the season and threw five shutout innings. Significant overlay here.
San Diego -1½ +265 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 11 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park and so when Colorado is at home, this will be an automatic play every time.
Incidentally, we received a good question regarding this strategy and thought we would share the question and answer here.
Q: Brian: Have you back-tested this Colorado alternate runtime angle over a large sample?
A: Good question Manny and you'll have to be the judge yourself. I bet it all of last season as a tester and profited nearly 48 units on the year. Is that a small or large sample size? I would have to say small but large enough to put it out there this year and allow readers to make their own decision. Keep in mind that one win out of every three games shows a profit.
We’ll also keep an updated record on this play throughout the year.
2017:
1-0 +5.28 units
Bruce Marshall
Chicago at Cleveland
Pick: Chicago
It's no secret that Chisox starter James Shields endured a brutal 2016. Previously, however, he was a dependable starter, and Shields' opening effort last week vs. the Tigers (one riun and 2 hits thru 5 2/3 IP, though 5 walks a concern) suggests last season might have been a one-off. The Indians are making their home debut after getting swept at Arizona, and starter Carlos Carrasco has had problems vs. the Pale Hose throughout his caree
Rocketman
Braves vs. Marlins
Play: Braves +128
The Atlanta Braves travel to Miami to take on the Marlins on Tuesday night. Atlanta is 1-5 SU overall this year while Miami comes in with a 3-3 SU overall record on the season. Bartolo Colon is 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA in his 1 start so far this season while Daniel Straily is 0-1 with a 13.51 ERA in his only start this year. Straily lasted only 3 innings where he didn't record a strike out and allowed 5 earned runs on 6 hits. Colon is 7-5 with a 3.35 ERA in his 14 starts vs Miami in his career. Straily is 0-1 with a 12.47 ERA in his one start vs Atlanta in his career. Atlanta has won 12 of 17 meetings when playing in Miami the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Atlanta tonight!
Vegas Synergy
Padres at Rockies
Play: Under 12
The Coors Field audience on Tuesday night might be expecting a high scoring affair, like the oddsmakers have positioned the event at (12o-110) but tonight's battle between San Diego's Jered Weaver and Rockies Antonio Senzatela could be much more pitcher friendly than first thought.
Tonight's event in Denver is scheduled to see first pitch at 8:40 p.m. ET and if the Padres plan on getting Weaver his first win in a San Diego uniform they will need to have Wil Myers to hit for a second straight cycle, or close to it. Myers became only the second player in San Diego history to hit for the cycle in Monday's series opener. Myers was 4-for-4 in the Padres victory and it was his fifth multi-hit scorecard in the team's last seven games.
Colorado's Mark Reynolds shares the league lead with four home runs. Reynolds' crushed a two-run bomb in Monday's loss taking the league lead in home runs for the 2017 season.
Padres right-hander Jered Weaver (0-1, 7.20 ERA) was anything but impressive in his San Diego debut. But it is worthwhile to offer Weaver a mulligan. He surrendered four runs on five hits, including two homers, while allowing three walks over five innings in a road loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Weaver registered a no-decision in his only career start versus the Rockies. The veteran righty allowed two runs while striking out 11 in seven innings of work.
Colorado Antonio Senzatela (0-0, 0.00) was solid in his major-league debut at Milwaukee on Thursday. The Roks right-hander allowed two hits while registering six strikeouts in five frames of work.
The schedule home plate umpire in this Coors event is pitcher-friendly Jeff Nelson. Not only will both pitchers have the luxury of a wide strike zone they both receive extra reach on low pitches which is key to keeping the score down playing on Coors Field grass.
Tony Finn
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Play: Baltimore Orioles +105
The O's enjoyed an off-day on Monday before heading to Boston for a quick two-game series against the Red Sox starting on Tuesday night While it is just April these two American League East foes are expected to battle for the division crown in September so while it is only April the head-to-head series could be important at the end of the regular campaign.
The Orioles travel to Fenway to square off against the Red Sox with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, Tuesday. Boston.
The Red Sox are struggling to find any consistency in their lineup. One day after placing Jackie Bradley Jr. (knee) on the disabled list manager John Farrell expects to return the services of Xander Bogaerts from bereavement leave. Dylan Bundy will take the mound for the Baltimore while Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz starts for Boston ins his season debut.
The Red Sox have suffered a handful of player personnel setbacks in the first week of the season and head into the first of the two game series against Baltimore with Hanley Ramirez sick but expected to be available and their starting pitcher is making his first start of the season because he is still experiencing issues with his left forearm. The same medical issue that created issues for him when he arrived from San Diego last summer.
Dylan Bundy is one of Baltimore's most highly touted pitching prospects. The hard throwing right-hander struck out eight over seven innings, and the Baltimore Orioles used home runs by Adam Jones and Chris Davis to beat the Toronto Blue Jays 3-1 in his first start of the season. Making his 15th career start, Bundy (1-0) allowed one run and four hits. Most impressive in Bundy's first outing was that the first-round draft pick did not issue a walk and retired 14 of the last 15 batters he faced. B
There are questions as to whether Drew Pomeranz (left forearm) is ready to take the mound. Entering Spring Training the Red Sox had a roster that seemed mostly set. However, injuries have tossed and turned what should be routine at Fenway into a guessing game. Five-time All-Star David Price (left elbow strain) is starting the season on the disabled list and so did Pomeranz (left forearm flexor strain).
The matchup tonight at Fenway favors the hard hitting Orioles who are healthy and send a top flight prospect that is coming off a solid 10-6 campaign in 2016. Pomearanz will not only be limited he isn't expected to be throwing at his normal velocity and he depends on command which is also hard to bank on due to the injury to this throwing forearm.
The O's bullpen, save the one outing against the Yankees on Sunday, have been outstanding. All seven of the runs Baltimore's pen has allowed this season (in 20 2/3 innings) came in Sunday's loss to the Yankees.
Carmine Bianco
Milwaukee at Toronto
Play: Toronto -181
The Blue Jays return home for tonight's home opener after a rough opening week where they went 1-5 in Baltimore and Tampa and hand the ball to last seasons 20 game winner J.A. Happ. Happ pitched in Baltimore and threw a strong 7 striking out 9 while allowing 3 earned runs (2 homers) Happ was 11-2 at home last season with a 2.90 ERA and 3-0 in April. Peralta gets the start for the Brewers who have gone an equally back 2-5 out of the gate this season and he got the win against Colorado. He went 7-11 last season and 1-3 in April and 2-6 on the road. Osuna returns to the Blue Jays line up to help a bullpen that struggled late in games to open this season. The Jay's should get off to a winning start in this 9 game home stand in front of a sold out opening day crowd with Happ on the mound and the offense being provided by Bautista, Donaldson, Morales and Tulowitzki tonight.