DAVE COKIN
PIRATES VS TIGERS
PLAY: PIRATES +125
Spring stats should always be taken with a substantial grain of salt. Spring stuff can be a great barometer of things to come, however. I’m adhering to that theory today as Juan Nicasio take the mound for the Pirates.
Nicasio has been sensational from the opening of the exhibition season, and I don’t think it’s a fluke. He’s always had the big arm and dynamic stuff. But Nicasio’s command lapses have gotten him into deep water in the past, and he’d pretty much gone from prospect to just a guy in the past few years.
Getting together with Pittsburgh pitching guru Ray Searage has evidently turned the tide for the hard throwing righty. Nicasio was lights out during the spring games and his first official start as a member of the Pirates was more than impressive. The key is a killer slider that Nicasio is locating extremely well. Combine that with a fastball that averages about 95 MPH, but that Nicasio can add and subtract on seemingly at will, and this is one nasty looking pitcher right now.
Anibal Sanchez is looking to rebound from a tough 2015. I gave Sanchez a passing grade for his first 2016 start, but there were some red flags. First off, his command was shaky and that spiked his pitch count to some extent. Sanchez worked into the sixth inning but was at 89 pitches when he was removed. Perhaps more notable was the diminished velocity, though. The Sanchez fastball was a career low on average. I also didn’t like the high line drive rate on balls in play.
I’ve got to give Nicasio a decent edge on the mound today. As far as the late inning pitching is concerned, Tony Watson has worked two straight days for the Bucs, but didn’t trow that many pitches and closer Mark Melancon had a cinch nine-pitch save on Monday night. Assuming both are therefore available, Pittsburgh has an advantage down the stretch if this is close at the finish line.
I’m not suggesting this will be an easy winner, but I did think it was a relatively easy call to make, and my ticket will be on the Pirates in this game.
Sleepyj
Pirates / Tigers Over 8.5
When I looked at the Pirates I wonder how many runs this team could have scored so far this year..Tons of guys left on base, but the bats woke up yesterday...I expect them to be comfortable here against the Tigers Sanchez....Sanchez hasn't been great for the most part, but he struggles Vs. this Bucs lineup....Pirates jumped all over Verlander yesterday and they should feel good in this one..A very tough lineup for a pitcher to pitch around IMO..Sanchez at home should be better, but i'm not sold he can keep the Pirates under 4 runs...On the flip side the Pirates will send out Juan Nicasio...His first outing of the season was great...He went 6 full and only allowed 2 hits and 1 run...I find those numbers to be nothing but smoke and mirrors...He has bounced around the last 3 years and his ERA has never been strong...I expect him to regress back to his norm and get hit up here today...Tigers coming off 2 straight home losses now should be swinging away...They have hit the board in both of the last two games with 4 runs each..Again, another hard lineup to pitch around for any pitcher..Cabrera looks a bit slow to me right now and a few others as well....The game yesterday though they looked a bit better..Perhaps the Tigers are just limping out of the gate...They should have no real issues getting after Nicasio here..I would be surprised again if he held the Tigers under 4 runs...This needing 9 runs looks good to me.
Art Aronson
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Under 8½
Two teams which should be battling it out for top spot in the division at the end of the season get together for their first series of the year. Both feature explosive offensive firepower and decent starting pitching. The visitors send Masahiro Tanaka to the hill, he’d give up two runs off four this with one walk while striking out five over 5.2 innings in an unfortunate no decision vs. the Astros on Tuesday. Tanaka looked pretty good, going pitch for pitch with Dallas Keuchel and note, he was particularly effective on the road last year, going 5-3 with a respectable 3.24 ERA. The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez, who held Tampa to just one run off five hits over seven innings on Tuesday, also getting stuck with a no-decision, despite striking out eight. Sanchez would induce 16 swinging strikes and gave up just four fly balls vs. eight ground balls. Sanchez earned the fifth spot in the rotation by accumulating a 10:1 K:BB ratio over nine innings in three Grapefruit League appearances. Consider a second look at the UNDER in this matchup.
Marc Lawrence
Indians vs. Rays
Play:Rays +119
Edges - Rays: Mike Moore 3-1 last four team starts, and 2-1 home team starts, versus Cleveland; and 4-2 career team starts during April. Indians: Corey Kluber 3-10 career team starts during April, including 1-6 away . With Moore off an outstanding spring camp in which he posted a 0.96 WHIP to go with 14 K’s and 3W’s, we recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay.
Aaron Toller
Heat / Pistons Over 202.5
Free play here for Tuesday night in the NBA is on the over 202.5 in Detroit. Miami has been playing small ball lately and been scoring a ton of points. Both teams are more than capable of dropping 100 points on each other and I expect that to be the case tonight
ASA
Pittsburgh vs. Detroit
Play:Pittsburgh +120
With Pittsburgh getting the upset win over the Tigers Monday afternoon many may be inclined to back Detroit for a bounce back win here. The fact is that the Pirates are now a fantastic 14-7 in inter-league match-ups dating back to the start of last season. Also, Pittsburgh is now 34-17 in day games dating back to the beginning of last year. The Tigers have a losing record in inter-league games since April of 2015. Unlike Pittsburgh, Detroit is barely above .500 in day games since last season got underway. The Pirates are a dog here but they still aren't being given the line respect that they should be. Pittsburgh won 98 games last season while Detroit only won 74 games last year. This is nearly 20 victories below where the Tigers were just two years prior but with a poor bullpen performance last season (certainly not proven yet to be completely resolved) and some aging stars on this team, the Tigers just aren't what they use to be. Anibal Sanchez toes the rubber for Detroit in this one and he is only 2-5 in his career against the Bucs and he has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts against Pittsburgh. The Pirates will have Juan Nicasio on the mound Tuesday afternoon and he was fantastic against St Louis with just 2 hits allowed in 6 innings while striking out 7 to open the season. Considering how the Cardinals have been crushing every other pitcher they've been seeing this says an awful lot about where Nicasio is right now! We’ll grab the nice underdog odds with Pittsburgh on the road on the money line!
Bob Harvey
Grizzlies vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -7½
The Los Angeles Clippers look to extend their winning streak when they host the Memphis Grizzlies. Game time is 10:30 PM ET at Staples Center where the Clips are favored by -7.5.
The Grizzlies (42-38, 42-37 ATS) have been beset by injuries and have lost eight of their last nine games to slip behind Portland for fifth place in the Western Conference playoff race. The Grizzlies did put forth a solid effort on Saturday before falling 100-99 to the NBA-best Golden State Warriors. They’ll close out the regular season against the Warriors, who can set a record for most victories in a season.
The Clippers (52-28, 39-38 ATS) are locked in for the fourth spot and has been rock solid of late winning five straight games and nine of its last 10. The return of Blake Griffin, who missed time with injuries and a suspension, has been a major catalyst for LA. He had 17 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists in Sunday's 98-91 victory over the Dallas Mavericks. The Clippers will need to find a way to slow down Zach Randolph who posted the first triple-double of his career when he had 28 points, 11 rebounds and a career-best 10 assists in a 113-102 win over Los Angeles on March 19.
The Grizzlies are 4-0 to the OVER in their last four road games while the UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last six series meetings.
Memphis is 12-2 ATS in the past 14 meetings while Los Angeles is 7-1 vs. the number following a straight up win.
Rob Vinciletti
New York vs. Indiana
Play: Over 199.5
This is the final game for NY and they will look to score after scoring under 90 in their final home game. Home favorites of 5 or more like the Pacers have played over the total over 88% since 1995 if they scored 120 or more and covered as a 10+ point home favorite vs a team that scored 90 or less at home. The Knicks have posted overs in 7 of 9 on Tuesday and the Pacers have flown over in 4 of the last 5.
Jim Feist
Memphis at Los Angeles
Pick: Memphis
A lot more at stake in this contest for the Grizzlies than the Clippers. The Grizzlies are currently 6th in the West Playoff picture, but only 1/2 game back of Portland and 1/2 ahead of Dallas. That's important, because if they fall to seventh, that means a meeting with the Spurs in the first round. The Clippers are going to finish 4th in the West, which likely means a first round against Portland, Memphis or Dallas. The Clippers have been playing much better than Memphis lately, but with nothing to play for, expect the Clippers to not have much interest in either of these last two games. I'll take the points here with the Grizzlies.
Dave Essler
Pirates / Tigers Over 8
I don't agree with the initial move down. Perhaps a reaction to the chilly weather (but the wind IS blowing out) and the fact that Nicasio had a strong outing last time out. Welp, many Tigers have seen him, and most Pirates saw Sanchez when he was with the Fish. Nicasio doesn't have a pitcher to pitch around in the AL - and the Tigers bullpen has been horrible. Reasonable umpire for "overs" - so let's do it. In the other day game - I lean under - but would like 7.5. We'll see. PERHAPS a F5 under because Corbin can be a ground ball pitcher and the D-Backs haven't seen Maeda, who was brilliant last game.
Larry Ness
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Morton went 1-5 with a 6.95 ERA in his L7 starts in 2015 (lost 10-6 to open TY) but he's 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in seven career...
Robbie Erlin was called up in mid-September of last year, going 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA in three starts. He's 9-10 with a 4.48 ERA in 28 appearances (23 starts) since making his major league debut with San Diego in 2013. Erlin pitched well in three spring starts, posting a 2.25 ERA over 12 innings before being sent to Triple-A on April 3. However, his stay in the minors was brief, as Erlin was recalled Friday when reliever Matt Thornton went on the 15-day DL. He would pitch that afternoon in relief at Colorado, allowing one hit over 3.2 scoreless innings to pick up the win. He makes his first start of 2016 tonight in Philadelphia, when he takes the mound for the second of a four-game road series against the Phillies.
The Padres won 4-3 Monday afternoon, spoiling the Phillies' home opener. Charlie Morton gets the ball for Philly, after a poor first start. The right-hander enters his 9th big league season, after being acquired from Pittsburgh in December. He gave up six runs and five hits over 3.2 innings of a 10-6 loss at Cincinnati on Thursday. "I felt like I was getting in trouble out of the stretch," Morton said. "I don't know if it was (because it was) the second time through (the lineup). I was struggling out of the stretch. I felt like I was getting ahead. Then I started getting into deep counts."
Morton went 1-5 with a 6.95 ERA in his final seven starts last season and throwing in his 10-6 loss last week against the Reds, he’s a pretty sad 45-71 with a 4.59 ERA in his career. However, Morton is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA in seven career starts vs the Padres (teams are 5-2), so I expect a pretty good game from him here. Let’s take the home team.
Oskeim Sports
Miami Marlins at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets
New York right-hander Noah Syndergaard could be the best pitcher in baseball after finishing the 2015 campaign with a 3.24 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 166 strikeouts across 150 innings. Those surface statistics were fully supported by his underlying metrics: 3.25 FIP, 2.91 xFIP and 2.95 SIERA. Syndergaard's 10.0 K/9 rate was the best among the Mets' talented rotation and led all rookie pitchers in strikeouts last season. What makes the 23-year-old even more impressive is the fact that he displayed outstanding control (1.9 BB/9) despite regularly hitting 100 mph with his fastball.
The young flame-thrower commenced the 2016 regular season with a dominant outing against Kansas City, throwing six shutout innings over which time he garnered nine strikeouts. Syndergaard's season-debut was made even more impressive by the fact that he got 16 swing-and-misses against the best contact team in baseball (Kansas City). As if that was not remarkable enough, Syndergaard threw 25 sinkers at an average of 98.5 mph according to Brooks Baseball. Syndergaard's sinker was the fourth-hardest in the majors last season (97.7 mph) and now the right-hander is topping the charts with the fastest sinker in the game (98.5 mph).
As noted by August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs.com, assuming everyone who pitched last year maintains the same level of velocity, Syndergaard's "sinker would be the hardest-thrown sinker in baseball, relievers included. His slider would be the hardest-thrown slider in baseball, relievers included. His changeup would be the hardest-thrown changeup in baseball, relievers included." Syndergaard's offseason development of the slider has made him a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2016. Indeed, Syndergaard used his slider to induce eight swinging strikes against the Royals, a remarkable number in light of the fact that he used the slider for eight swinging strikes all of last year!
Syndergaard is also supported by a very capable New York bullpen that owns a 2.08 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season (26/5 K/BB rate). Technically speaking, the Mets are 9-2 in Syndergaard's last eleven home starts, including a perfect 6-0 versus .499 or worse opposition. In contrast, Miami is just 1-5 in starter Jose Fernandez's last six road starts and 1-4 in its last five games versus right-handed starters. Fernandez had Tommy John surgery on May 16, 2014 and will be on an innings limit this season (likely to be 180 IP). The ultra-talented 23-year-old yielded five earned runs on five hits over 5 2/3-innings in his season debut against the Tigers.
SPS Investors
Diamondbacks at Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
After spending their first 7 games on the road and compiling a 4-3 record, the Dodgers will have their home opener this afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Being at home, in front of their fans for the first game of the season immediately gives the Dodgers an edge. While they had a successful opening week despite being on the road, the same cannot be said for their opponents.
The D-Backs have struggled to put runs on the board and come into this contest with a 2-5 record despite playing each of their games at home. They now get set for a long, 10 game road trip that starts in a place where they have struggled, having dropped 15 of their last 18 meetings at Dodger Stadium. Arizona is also just 18-46 in their last 64 road games versus teams with winning records, so they will likely have their work cut out for them this afternoon.
Taking the mound in the opener for the Dodgers will be Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda. Maeda was signed in January to replace the loss of former Dodger and ace Zach Greinke and was impressive in his debut scattering 5 hits over 6 innings with no runs allowed. Not only did he pick up the win in his Major League debut but he also made his mark at the plate, smashing a solo homerun in the 4th inning to put a stamp on his outing.
The Diamondbacks will counter as Patrick Corbin takes the mound for his second start of the year. He lost his most recent start against the Rockies as he allowed four runs on eight hits over seven innings of a 4-3 Arizona loss. Corbin will make his 10th career appearance and ninth start against the Dodgers in this contest. He’s just 3-4 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP over 44 innings of work in those outings.
The Dodgers have been a team that has done extremely well against lefties, having gone 5-0 in their last 5 with southpaws on the mound. They have also been a team that bounces back extremely well after a loss having gone 6-1 in their last 7 when facing this situation. This is not an ideal situation for the D-backs and we believe the Dodgers come away with a successful home opener.
Will Rogers
Oklahoma City vs. San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio
The San Antonio Spurs are coming off three straight losses, most recently a 92-86 home loss to the Warriors. It was the Spurs first home loss of the season, and they should be highly motivated to snap this losing skid in their final home game tonight against Oklahoma City. The Thunder are expected to rest their starters, and that could lead to a one-sided game.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Thunder have lost three of their last four trips to San Antonio, scoring an average of just 88 points in those three losses. The Spurs have been a good bet coming off a loss, going 17-5 ATS in their last 22 when losing their previous game.
2. Spurs Defense - San Antonio is the best defensive team in the NBA by a country mile, allowing opponents to average just over 92 points per game. The Thunder scored just 85 points on 38.3 percent shooting in their last visit to San Antonio. They hit just 2-of-18 three-point shots in that game.
3. X-Factor - The home team is 17-7-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings.
Kevin Rogers
Yankees at Blue Jays
Play: Yankees
The Yankees have been off since beating the Tigers on Saturday, as New York heads north of the border to face Toronto. The Blue Jays snapped a four-game losing streak in Sunday's victory over the Red Sox, as Toronto faces right-hander Masahiro Tanaka in the series opener. Tanaka shut down the Blue Jays after losing the season opener in 2015 by winning the last two starts, allowing 1 ER in 16 innings of work. Aaron Sanchez makes his second start for the Blue Jays, coming off a no-decision in his season debut at Tampa Bay in spite of tossing seven innings and allowing five hits in a 3-2 loss. I'll back the Yankees to beat the Blue Jays.