Nelly
Tampa Bay Rays + over Cleveland Indians
Even in Corey Kluber's 2014 Cy Young season he had some struggles in April as Cleveland won just two of his first seven starts and he allowed 20 runs in his first six starts of the season before turning in a dominant season. The Indians incredibly lost Kluber's first seven starts of 2015 as well and his debut this season didn't live up to his billing with just five strikeouts in five+ innings, allowing four runs and nine hits in a home loss to Boston. Tampa Bay is a less formidable draw with the Rays off to a 2-4 start to the season with only 18 runs scored but the Cleveland offense has also been held to just 19 runs this season, albeit in just four games. Cleveland is 1-2 vs. left-handed starters this season after going just 24-31 vs. southpaw starters last season as the lineup draws another lefty tonight. Matt Moore has been injury plagued but he could be in line for a comeback season this year. He allowed three runs in his 2016 debut but that was a respectable showing with six strikeouts and just five hits allowed against a Blue Jays lineup known to torch left-handers. The early returns have displayed a massive bullpen edge for the Rays so far this season with a 1.45 bullpen ERA for Tampa Bay through six games compared to a 6.08 bullpen ERA for the Indians. Rainouts have really disrupted Cleveland's schedule and this is a team likely still a bit out of rhythm facing another left-hander and the Rays are catching a nice home underdog price.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Angels at Athletics
Play: Over 8
There are some 7.5's out there with added juice. LA's Hector Santiago and Oakland's Kendall Graveman are near the bottom of my list when it comes to starting pitchers. In case I was not clear, being at the bottom of the list is not good... at all. The wind is blowing out, which certainly can't hurt. The OVER is 5-0-1 in Santiago's last six starts against the Athletics. The OVER is also 4-1-2 in the last seven meetings. We also have a home plate umpire with a bit of an Over bias in Alfonso Marquez. That also does not hurt. Oakland has seen the Under cash in six straight games. I personally hate to buck streaks like that, but there's a little too much all pointing to the OVER in this one..
Scott Spreitzer
Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +123
We have yet another opportunity to go against Corey Kluber. The Cleveland righty got knocked around a bit in his first start, and while he blamed it a tad on the cold weather, the bottom line is that your bankroll has grown quite a bit playing against him in certain situations. The Indians have won just three of his last 17 starts in the first half of the last two seasons, allowing over 4 1/2 rpg in his outings. The Tribe have also lost each of his last six April starts, allowing a hefty 5.3 rpg in the half-dozen outings. The problem here is that Kluber is backed by MLB's 25th ranked bullpen in ERA (6.08). I doubt he gets enough run support from an offense that finished 26th in runs scored on the road last season; 26th in road batting average; and 21st in OBP. Tampa Bay has won four straight Matt Moore home starts. The southpaw pitched well for most of his opening start of the season against the Blue Jays, giving up all three of his runs allowed on a 3-run homer. Moore also showed a return of stamina, lasting 102 pitches. And unlike Kluber, Moore has a decent pen behind him, ranked 3rd in bullpen ERA and 5th in BAA. We'll go against Kluber and the Indians as we did quite a few times in the first half of the last two seasons. I'm backing the Tampa Bay Rays, my DogPound release on Tuesday.
The Prez
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +130
The final home opener in Hall of Fame broadcaster Vin Scully's career tales place this afternoon in an early start at Dodger Stadium when the Boys in Blue host the Arizona Diamondbacks. It will also be the first Major League home opener for LA starting pitcher Kenta Maeda.
Maeda is coming off a stellar debut, pitching six shutout innings and contributing at the plate with a home run in San Diego.
"I think it's great for him to pitch that day, great for baseball for him to pitch the home opener, and even better for the fans of Los Angeles to see Kenta Maeda pitch that home opener," first-year Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told the team's official website.
"Until you see it, you don't know what to expect, but I wasn't really too surprised [in San Diego]. He's a pitch maker; he can throw different pitches to different parts of the plate. Any time a pitcher can field his position, hold runners on, execute pitches, you've got a good chance to win a game."
Patrick Corbin, who struck out six without a walk in his first start of the 2016 season suffered a loss due to the long ball at the hands of the Colorado Rockies. All four of the runs he allowed over his seven innings came via three home runs.
Diamondbacks
Corbin may have suffered a loss in this first game of the season, all coming via home runs, but the lefty had the best spring of any D-backs pitcher, especially when measuring the starters. Despite the loss to the Roks there was plenty to like about Corbin’s first start. The southpaw didn't walk a batter and was around the plate for seven innings throwing just 88 pitches in the process. Three home runs in the 4-3 loss to Colorado also included just eight hits.
All-Star Paul Goldschmidt has driven in seven runs and continue to be the anchor of the offense. The pitching staff, has not fulfilled their expected potential over the first week. The staff has allowed 47 runs – second-most in the majors through Sunday.
Dodgers
Dodgers
LA was 13-6 against Arizona last season but it was a different, a more inexperienced and unfortunate D'Backs squad than the 2016 version. The Dodgers send rookie Maeda to the mound against what appears to be a struggling Diamondbacks club. Yes, Arizona has dropped five of seven to start the campaign but they have scored enough runs (33) to have more than just two wins. Los Angeles C Yasmani Grandal (forearm) and 2B Howie Kendrick (calf) are still not 100 percent and are question marks for today's home opener.
Dodgers 1B Adrian Gonzalez is 12-for-28 with six RBI in the team's first week of action but has never had much success against the Arizona pitching staff hitting only .227 in his career.
Bruce Marshall
Knicks +10
Indiana finally playoff-bound but now maneuvering to avoid the eight seed in East and a likely first-round date vs. LeBron and the Cavs. Holding a tiebreaker over Detroit gives the Pacers a leg up on landing in the East's 7 slot. But Paul George was due to take a rest on Tuesday vs. Knicks, but New York's 18-8 spread mark as a road dog of 4 points or more is enticing.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +150 over BOSTON
Mike Wright makes his first start of the season for the Orioles. Wright won the job in spring and could secure a long-term role with the Orioles. Wright, a tall, strong hurler, put things together in 2015 to reach the majors for the first time. He got knocked around a bit, but he offers fine skills. He has a durable frame that allows him to maintain his velocity deep into games. He generates fringe-average velocity with his 88-94 mph fastball and has a solid splitter in his arsenal. Wright’s delivery can be stiff, but he showed dramatic improvement in his control and command in 2015. Because of his 6’6” height, his arm angle can be tough to pick up, which makes his sinking fastball play up. As a fly-ball pitcher, he can be subject to HR’s but he also offers two breaking balls, a slider and curveball, with the slider being a better pitch at present. Wright burst onto scene last year with 14 scoreless innings but then his command/control went awry (16/15 K/BB, 30 ER in next 30.1 innings). Wright would subsequently lose a month to a calf strain. He does bring risk but the Orioles are feeling it and Clay Buchholz brings as much risk as Wright.
Clay Buchholz’s xERA is always much higher than his actual ERA. A larger xERA (than ERA) indicates that a pitcher’s actual performance is worse than the surface stats. The proof is in the xERA calculation that measures K%, BB%, HR/F% and GB%/FB% split. We see some of the same names on this list every season.
For example, Kyle Kendrick, Kyle Lohse and Mark Buehrle never miss the list. While they have large splits, even assuming they are projected to pitch better going forward is probably not enough. Our version of “better” is not satisfying enough for us to back these imposters but one name sticks out like a sore thumb. That would be Clay Buchholz, whose xERA was far worse than his ERA last season for the third consecutive year. We can easily establish that Clay Buchholz has had a significant ERA-xERA split for three years running that does not work in his favor. The easy gut reaction is to say Buchholz has gotten horribly unlucky, and his .401 BABIP should come down but maybe that’s not true at all. Maybe he’s mentally weak. Maybe he is throwing well two out of five pitches, but his other 60% are just meatballs down the middle of the plate. Maybe it’s terrible pitch calling/framing/sequencing. Maybe he just is a terrible pitcher, and terrible pitchers are overly buoyed when it comes to metrics. Whatever the case may be, Buchholz keeps getting hit hard. He served up batting practice to the Indians in his first start with four innings of ugly results that included 31% line-drives. Buchholz now comes in as a big favorite against the hottest team to start the year and it’s a fade we’re not going to miss.
N.Y. Yankees +110 over TORONTO
Aaron Sanchez is just 12 starts into his major league career, but his first appearance of 2016 was masterful. In seven innings versus the Rays, he struck out eight and walked none, while producing a 14% swing and miss rate. That’s nice, it really is but that was against the Rays at the Trop. This start will be in front of a packed house in a hitter’s park. Sanchez began the first half of last year in the rotation, where gilt-edged groundball% and hit% offset his poor command and hr/f spike. A strained lat shelved him in early June and Sanchez returned in the 2nd half as a reliever with a velocity rebound and better results. Starting role is still his future, and sinking mid-90s stuff speaks to both high floor and ceiling but both first-pitch strike rate and swinging strike rate urge patience. Sanchez is still a risk until he shows more consistency.
What we know about the Blue Jays is that they hit lefties well and they hit fastball pitchers well too. Masahiro Tanaka is neither. When healthy, Tanaka has some of the filthiest stuff in the business. His ERA took a hit in 2015, mostly due to a freakish hr/f and we also saw a drop in his K-rate from his stellar 2014 season but his swing and miss stuff remains high, which suggests there’s a rebound coming. He issues few walks, and keeps the ball on the ground. Tanaka’s 75%/4% dominant start/disaster split in 24 starts shows his dominance. The Blue Jays usually have trouble against junk pitchers and when Tanaka is on ... oh, those skills. Tanaka as a pooch against anyone has appeal and if this one gets decided by the bullpens, our chance of winning increases.
Miami +125 over N.Y. METS
Have you see the Mets play yet? We have and all they do is keep swinging at pitches against some poor pitchers and missing by a mile. Yeah, it’s early but the Mets have two wins in six games and that includes losing two of three to the Phillies. New York’s other win came against the Royals but they scored just two runs. Overall, the Mets are batting .173 against right-handers and will face a good one here in Jose Fernandez. Fernandez struck out 13 batters in six innings in his season debut against the Tigers but he was whacked for five runs in five frames and that sticks out more than the K’s. This market does not like pitchers that give up runs and take losses while we could not care less about surface stats. Fernandez has filthy stuff, period. His skills in 11 starts last year were slightly off from 2013-14, but at his level they are little more than rounding errors.
Noah Syndergaard is also the straight goods. A highly anticipated debut from this flame-throwing phenom didn’t disappoint. Some late-season gopheritis was neutralized by his dominance and groundball tilt. Control, repertoire, poise and youth all point to sky-high ceiling but in order to win you need run support and if the Fish can squeeze out a couple of runs, they have a great chance to keep the Mets reeling. The price on Fernandez makes this wager a worthy one.
Texas +120 over SEATTLE
The AL has proven to be difficult for Wade Miley, as he spent a second straight year underperforming against his ERA indicators. Leaving Fenway for Safeco won’t hurt but Miley has mostly been a disappointment wherever he’s pitched. His career dominant start/disaster start split of 46%/31% showcase his inconsistency, and we don't foresee Miley becoming anything more than an innings eater going forward. The Mariners are now 2-5 on the young season with zero wins in four tries at home. That first home win becomes more illusive with each passing loss.
After a knee injury sidelined Derek Holland in '14, a bum shoulder did him in last year. When he pitched last season, he was either great or terrible 90% of the time (via dominant start/disaster start split). Bad health and skill inconsistency cements the risk in his profile but there are enough promising nuggets in his profile that make him interesting and undervalued. For one, Holland quietly was a very effective starter in August (2.53 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) and those marks came with nearly full skill support: 8.4 K/9, 0.4 BB/9. He was able to get ahead of hitters at an elite level (71% first pitch strike %) and his slider (27.6% swing and miss %) remains one of the best in the AL. This past spring, Holland whiffed 11 batters in eight frames too and he’ll now face a Mariners team that has more AB’s this season (111) against lefties than any team in baseball. In those 111 AB’s against southpaws, the M’s are hitting .171.
Ray Monohan
Knicks vs. Pacers
Play: Knicks +9.5
The Knicks get set to take on the Pacers Tuesday night and this will certainly be a public heavily play on the Indiana Pacers. Indiana has clinched a postseason spot, but continues to play for seeding. However, the Knicks behind Carmelo Anthony have not given up. They took the Raptors to the brink on Sunday before ultimately falling by 4 in the end. They covered the number and showed a lot of heart in the process.
Carmelo Anthony has stressed the team isn't throwing in the towel until the season is officially over. Combine his efforts with PG Jerian Grant and his stellar play, and the Knicks should compete here against Indiana.
Some trends to consider. Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central. Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Surprisingly, the Knicks haven't given up yet. Given that, look for them to do their best in the spoiler role and at the very least, keep this close.
Jack Jones
Houston Astros -129
The Houston Astros are showing great value as small home favorites over the Kansas City Royals Tuesday. I'll gladly back Mike Fiers over Kris Medlen at this price Tuesday night.
Fiers went 7-10 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.253 WHIP in 31 starts between the Brewers and Astros last season.
Kris Medlen will be making his first career start against the Astros in this contest. The Astros are 55-29 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
Houston is 50-25 (+14.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are 16-6 (+12.3 Units) against the money line after a win by 6 runs or more over the last 3 seasons.
Brian Hay
Tampa Bay +117
Matt Moore is finally healthy and looked tremendous in the spring. He had an exceptional 3.38 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He followed that up with a solid debut against a very tough Blue Jays lineup last week. He went just five innings, but only walked one batter, allowing five hits, and three runs. He'll have a much easier time today against a much softer and gentler Indians lineup.
The Indians go with Corey Kluber today. Kluber certainly did not look very good in his season debut last week versus the Red Sox. Tampa's lineup is much improved with the additions of Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Brad Miller and Steve Pearce. Dickerson has already homered three We are getting great value today with Tampa as the dog.
Jimmy Boyd
Tampa Bay +122
Tampa Bay is showing great value here as a home dog against the Indians today. We are simply seeing the Indians overvalued here due to the fact that they will be sending out former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, plus the Rays aren't getting a whole lot of respect after a 2-4 start to the season.
While Kluber is one of the better starters in the game, he took a big step back in 2015. After going 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 34 starts in 2014, he was just 9-16 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.05 WHIP last year. Kluber struggled in his first start of 2016, allowing 4 runs on 9 hits and 2 walks in just 5 1/3 innings of a 2-6 loss at home to the Red Sox. Kluber is now 3-14 in his last 17 starts in the 1st half of the season and 0-6 in his last 6 in April. Not to mention the Indians are just 4-12 in his last 16 road starts.
Tampa Bay counters with Matt Moore, who I believe is in line for a big bounce back season, after an injury plagued year in 2015. Moore didn't pitch great in his first start, but did allow just 5 hits with 6 strikeouts in 5 innings against a loaded Blue Jays lineup. Rays have won 8 of their last 11 at home and are a perfect 4-0 in Moore's last 4 starts.
Brandon Lee
Mariners -129
Seattle has gotten off to a slow start, as they are just 2- 5 over their first 7 and come in having lost 4 straight. I believe that has the Mariners showing great value here as a relatively small priced home favorite against the Rangers. Seattle has really struggled offensively of late, but are a strong 16-6 over the last 2 seasons when coming into a game hitting .200 or worse over their last 3. Texas will send out Derek Holland, who gave up 3 runs in 5 innings in his first start and has an ugly 7.13 ERA in his last 3 outings against the Mariners. Texas as a team is just 2-7 in Holland's last 9 starts away from home.
Carlo Campanella
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Orioles +147
Red Sox are 3-3 this season and opened in Vegas as -165 Favorites on Tuesday hosting Baltimore. Baltimore is an unbeaten 6-0, including a 9-7 victory over these Sox on Monday's Game #1 of a 3 game series. Baltimore's offense is full of "hot bats," as they've scored 4 Runs or more in 5 of their 6 games this season. Red Sox start Clay Buckholtz on the mound, but he's had trouble against this Baltimore crew, losing 2 of his last 3 starts against them. Backing "big dog" Baltimore knowing that they're a money making 14-6 as Dogs of -150 or more the past 2 years.
Mike Lundin
Braves vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -152
The price has dropped on the Washington Nationals and I think we're getting good value on the Nats against the Atlanta Braves at this price.
Gio Gonzalez (2015: 11-8, 3.79) will take the ball for the Nats making his first start of the season. He posted a 1.38 ERA while striking out 18 over 13 innings to win two starts against the Braves last year. The Braves Nick Markakis is swinging a hot bat with five doubles in the last two games, but he's only 2-for-12 since 2013 against Gonzalez.
The Braves will turn to Jhoulys Chacin (2015: 2-1, 3.38 ERA) who has had the last couple of seasons ruined by shoulder issues. He made just four starts with Arizona last season and will face a Washington team that has won 11 games in a row and 15 of its last 16 against Atlanta at Nationals Park.
The Nats have two hot bats in Ryan Zimmerman who is 6-for-15 with six runs and Daniel Murphy who is 8-for-17 with seven RBI so far this season. Zimmerman is 5-for-13 with a pair of homers in previous matchups against Chacin.
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians -129
Corey Kluber just won the Cy Young two years ago. It's no wonder the Cleveland Indians are favored over the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 2-4 on the season. Kluber loves facing the Rays, going 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.042 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them. Matt Moore is 2-1 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Cleveland.
Scott Rickenbach
Philadelphia at Toronto
Prediction: Under
Another stellar defensive effort from the Raptors Sunday and I don't see that changing in their home finale tonight. The under has cashed in four of Toronto's last six games overall. The Raptors are now in full 'rest' mode in terms of their starters as their playoff position is set. The Sixers season has long been "over" but they're still playing hard. After that key win (to avoid the dubious distinction of having 73 losses) last week against the Pelicans, the 76'ers battled hard with the Knicks and then took the Bucks to overtime before losing. Philly has played better defense in their last 3 games (the loss to Milwaukee was tied at 98 after 4 quarters). The Raptors should also give another solid defensive effort tonight because, even though their playoff position is set, the last thing Toronto wants is to lose its regular season home finale to the lowly Sixers. The 76'ers play this game with home loss revenge which has resulted in 18 of 29 games staying under this season and 54 of 83 staying under the past three seasons. 6 of the last 7 Raptors games have totaled 202 points or less. I look for another one to fall below that mark again tonight as Toronto rests stars and focuses on slowing the game down for home win.