Free Picks for Tuesday, April 18th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
JAZZ AT CLIPPERS
PLAY: JAZZ +9
Most NBA observers seem to be of the opinion that the window is closing on the Los Angeles Clippers, at least as far any serious title contention is concerned. I certainly would subscribe to that theory. More importantly, it kind of looks like the players on the Clippers might be feeling the same way.
It’s always a guess when observing from a distance as to chemistry on any team. But when I watch the Clippers, I just don’t see what I would call a winning attitude. There’s still plenty of talent on the roster, but no one can convince me this team is playing to its potential any more. I think it might be time to start an overhaul of sorts to try and get the right players on the court with Chris Paul.
The Utah Jazz look to me to be the polar opposite of the Clippers. The Jazz are okay on paper, but they’re better than that on the basketball court. I really like this team’s desire, and that’s on display on the stat sheet when peering at this team’s defensive data.
Utah was a winner in Game One at Staples Center and I don’t believe they’re just going to be satisfied with garnering home court advantage thanks to that win in the series opener. They’re have to go without Rudy Gobert thanks to a knee injury, and there’s no doubt the center’s presence will be missed. But I sure don’t envision this collection of grinders hanging their collective heads over their bad injury luck. Hell, the Jazz have been dinged up virtually the entire season, and they still managed two win 51 games.
The line on Tuesday’s game is higher than it was for the opener. The Gobert injury is contributing factor as is the thought many bettors will have that this is a put up more shut up game for the Clippers. I expect another competitive battle though, and I’d rather grab the ample points with the Jazz.
DAVE COKIN
CANADIENS AT RANGERS
PLAY: CANADIENS +100
I have a series play on Montreal, so it’s kind of pointless for me to play this game individually. A win by the Canadiens would give them a commanding 3-1 lead in the series, and that’s sure good enough for me.
But as for this game, I see the Habs will a great chance to lock up a third straight win after dropping the opener on home ice. I have no idea why the Rangers have been better on the road than at home all season, but the fact is this is a .500 entry at Madison Square Garden, and that’s not as good as Montreal has been on the road.
Beyond the win-loss ledgers, it looks to me like Montreal is simply outplaying the Rangers. New York is having a very tough time generating consistent offense and when they do the Montreal goalie wall known as Carey Price has been there to thwart them.
Maybe the Rangers find a way to crank up the attack here and get back to even in the series. But while momentum can be mighty fickle, it’s clearly with the Montreal side right now and I believe that trend will continue this evening. I’d look to back the Canadiens at roughly even money in Game Four.
Vegas Butcher
New York Yankees -180
Model has this one at -245. White Sox can’t hit, and Severino is pitching like a top-5 starter right now.
Milwaukee Brewers +156
Pure value play, as the Cubs are way over-valued here. Anderson is a top-20 pitcher in the early going and Milwaukee’s offense can score some runs. Model has this one at +138 Brewers.
Miami Marlins -102
Marlins have been simply a better team in the early going, and following a tough spot on Monday (traveling across country for that one), I expect a better showing here.
Scott Rickenbach
Jazz vs. Clippers
Play: Over 196
After losing Game 1 of this series and managing only 95 points, the Clippers know they must control the tempo in Game 2 and make sure this match-up tonight has a faster pace. At home, I expect them to be successful in achieving that. Even though the Jazz are known for their defense and playing at a slower pace, Utah has averaged 103 points per game in their last 13 games. The Clippers average 109 points per game at home on the season. The over is 4-1 this season when Utah is off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, when the Jazz enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more, the over has gone 12-5 this season. The over is 10-6 this season in Clippers games when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. Look for the over in LA games to improve to a perfect 5-0 in Tuesday games on the season. The Clips force the tempo but the Jazz continue the hot shooting that has been a key in their current 8-2 run their last 10 games. Keep in mind, the Clippers had shot at least 50% from the field in 7 straight games before the loss to the Jazz in Game One. They respond here.
Scott Spreitzer
Marlins vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -107
Seattle has apparently recovered from its unbelievable ninth inning meltdown against the Angels a little over a week ago and has won four straight after Monday's 6-1 win over the Marlins. Yovani Gallardo is off to a shaky start, but he and the Mariners have a good opportunity versus Wei-Yin Chen, who lasted only three innings in a 9-8 loss to the Mets on Thursday. Chen gave up six runs and seven hits, including two homers. The left-hander comes off a 2016 season when he was only 5-5 with a 4.96 ERA and an opponent batting average of .276 while allowing 22 home runs. Seattle has won eight of its last 11 interleague home games and Miami has lost 20 of its last 26 interleague road games.
Jim Feist
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets
Play: Over 5½
The defending champs have speed on offense and have averaged 4 goals per game in this series. The Over is 31-15-5 in the Penguins last 51 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Columbus peaked a while ago as April has been a disaster, on a 1-9 run. They have been weak on defense and the Over is 7-3-1 in the Blue Jackets last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games. And the Over is 14-5 in the last 19 meetings in Columbus.
Jesse Schule
Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -122
The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 2 of this three game series at Busch Stadium Tuesday, and it would appear that the home team has a favorable matchup on the mound.
Mike Leake (1-1, 0.60 ERA) tossed seven scoreless innings, striking out seven in a 6-1 win at Washington his last time out. He's pitched well against the Pirates, going 4-2 with a 3.51 ERA in 13 starts against Pittsburgh since 2014.
The Pirates hand the ball to Chad Kuhl, and the 24 year old struggled against the Cardinals last year. He faced St. Louis twice, conceding five runs on 12 hits and four walks over seven innings. He really struggled with his control in his season debut, walking six batters in just five innings versus Atlanta.
The Pirates came into this series as losers of six of their last seven versus the Cards, losing four straight at Busch Stadium.
Marc Lawrence
Milwaukee vs. Chicago
Play: Milwaukee +162
Edges - Brewers: Nelson 0.94 WHIP this spring with 14 K’s and 2 BB’s, and 13 K’s and 2 BB’s this season… Cubs: Anderson 1.85 WHIP this spring. With Nelson 5-2 in his last seven overall team starts during the month of April, we recommend a 1* play on Milwaukee.
Teddy Davis
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Play: Detroit +105
Crazy line move here to make Fulmer the underdog who is way better here than Andriese. Fulmer has pitched 12 innings only giving up 3 runs so far in two starts. The Tigers also just took 2 of 3 from the Indians so I like the momentum they have. Fulmer is 2-0 against the Rays with a .64 ERA.
Andriese really struggled at home in his first start there facing the terrible Blue Jays, he gave up 4 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. The Rays are also in a funk losing 6 of 7.
Tigers are simply the better team with the better pitcher take the dog here!
Andrew Gold
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati +158
The Reds are worth a look at this price vs the Orioles. Baltimore is simply getting a lot of respect because of their name. While Gausman did pitch well in his last game you need to take into consideration the fact it was against the Blue Jays who are terrible right now.
The Reds counter with a vet in Arroyo who has had some success against Baltimore in 6 starts with a 3-1 record.
Chase Diamond
Jazz / Clippers Under 197½
Big time game as the 1-0 Jazz take on the 0-1 Clippers. Last game the Jazz won 97-95 so expect both teams to be playing defense one the Clippers can not go down 2 games to 0 and head back to Utah and Utah knows it must slow down the game as much as possible and limit possessions as much as possible. Tons of money here on the Over around 66% of the bets are on the Over Under is super sharp and where my money will be on this one.
TJ Masterline
Boston vs. Toronto
Play: Boston +140
So I know Stroman is pitching, and has had some success vs. the Red Sox. But that was with the lineup that could score runs. Right now, they are a weak hitting team. I love the hot Red Sox as a +140 play. Here are some other stats that back up our play: Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games on astroturf. Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Red Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Red Sox are 24-9 in their last 33 during game 1 of a series. Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Red Sox are 16-7 in their last 23 vs. American League East. Red Sox are 13-6 in their last 19 games following a win. Blue Jays are 6-18 in their last 24 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Blue Jays are 3-14 in their last 17 overall. Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. American League East. Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a loss. Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 home games. Blue Jays are 1-8 in their last 9 games on astroturf. Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 games following an off day. Blue Jays are 3-7 in Stromans last 10 starts vs. American League East. Blue Jays are 3-7 in Stromans last 10 starts. Blue Jays are 1-5 in Stromans last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Blue Jays are 1-5 in Stromans last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rob Vinciletti
Cleveland vs. Minnesota
Play: Under 9
In the series here 12 of the last 16 have stayed under. The Twins are 8 of 10 under this season and are scoring 2 runs per game on .187 hitting in night games. The Indians are hitting .224 on the road and have gone under in 21 of 30 away when the total is 9 to 9.5. Tomlin for the Tribe has pitched well here going under the last 2 and allowing 1 run in 7 innings last time he started here. He has gone under in 3 of his last 4 April road starts. Hughes for Minnesota has pitched under in his last 2 home starts vs Cleveland. Look for this game to stay under tonight.
Power Sports
White Sox vs. Yankees
Pick: Yankees
Keep riding the Yankees until further notice as they've now won eight in a row following last night's 7-4 home triumph over the White Sox. The Bronx Bombers are the only American League team that's yet to lose a home game as they've "doubled up" their visitors in terms of runs scored vs. allowed. Eventually, they'll drop one, but it won't be tonight as the White Sox are NOT the team to get the job done.
Pitching has been key to the Yanks' success thus far. They've allowed four runs or fewer in all eight wins. With the return of Aroldis Chapman, it was anticipated that the bullpen would be in fine shape, but the starting rotation has been a major surprise to this point. Getting the baseball tonight will be Luis Severino, who is off perhaps the best start of his career. He went seven innings and gave up just two runs on five hits in a 3-2 win over Tampa Bay. However, the most impressive thing about the outing was his 11-1 KW ratio. I anticipate him having little difficulty mowing through a White Sox lineup that has been held to three runs or fewer in 8 of its last 10 ballgames and is still minus Todd Frazier. It's also certainly not helping Chicago's cause that Jose Abreu is 2 for his last 27.
Starting opposite Severino will be Miguel Gonzalez. He has a 2-0 TSR, but if his current ERA and WHIP are any indication, winning will be unsustainable for the righty. Having a 1.928 WHIP is not a good sign. In his two starts, which span 10 2/3 innings, Gonzales has allowed 21 baserunners via 15 hits and six walks. Again, not good. Especially w/ the Yankees appearing to hit their stride offensively. I can't believe I'm saying this, but the guys wearing pinstripes continue to be undervalued.