Dave Essler
Rangers / A's 1st Half Under 4
It looks a bit too easy to take Darvish at only -125. I guess we'd have to know whether it's the Darvish that shut down the Angels or the one that was hammered by the Indians. Since both bullpens have been terrible, let's just take them out of the equation and play the F5 under, and that would also be a game that if it started with more pitching than offense that we could look at an in-game over, simply because of those bullpens. An under-trendy umpire in Mike Everitt behind the plate, too.
Mike Lundin
Milwaukee vs. Chicago
Play: Milwaukee +1½
The Chicago Cubs (6-7) are suffering from a massive Championship hangover and they enter Tuesday's contest as losers of four straight following a 6-3 loss to Milwaukee last night. The Brew Crew meanwhile have won six of their last seven to improve to 8-6 on the season and they're 6-1 on the road.
Tonight right-hander Jimmy Nelson (1-0, 1.38 ERA) takes the ball for Milwaukee. He's just 1-6 in 13 career games (11 starts) versus Chicago, but he's posted a respectable 3.49 ERA in those contests. He's been excellent in both his starts this season, striking out 13 while allowing only two runs on nine hits and a pair of walks through 13 innings of work.
The Cubs turn to left-hander Brett Anderson (1-0, 0.84 ERA) who has had an excellent star to the season as well, allowing only eight hits and five walks in 10 2/3 innings over his two starts. We can however note that the Brewers are 6-2 in their last eight road games vs. a left-handed starter and 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with the Cubs.
Milwaukee is playing great baseball at the moment, Chicago is not. No need to overthink this; take the insurance run on the hotter team at a reasonable price.
Ray Monohan
Jazz vs. Clippers
Play: Jazz +9
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Utah Jazz got blown out in there first game of the series against the Clippers and that has opened up a lot of value for you. The Jazz have kept most of the games between these two teams close as of late and in their game Sunday it was a perfect storm that led to them getting blown out. That won't happen on Tuesday night.
I except the Jazz to come out early and really play hard, and the Clippers won't play as well as they did in game one. I expect Gordon Hayward to really have a big game in this one. Some trends to note. Jazz are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific. Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Cajun Sports
Nationals vs. Braves
Play: Nationals -174
The Washington Nationals make the trip to the ATL for a three-game series against the host Atlanta Braves at the new SunTrust Stadium. The Braves are riding a five-game winning streak after sweeping the Padres in a four-game set with the final game on Monday night. The Braves trailing in the ninth sent Dansby Swanson and his .146 batting average on the season and currently 0-4 on the night to the plate with the bases loaded and two outs. Swanson did what; he delivered an RBI single as the Braves swept the Padres with their 5 to 4 victory on Monday night in the Sun. Their streak ends today with Max Scherzer and the Nationals in town. Max Scherzer comes in with a 1-1 record and an ERA of 2.13 on the year. His lone start came in the City of Brotherly Love against the Phillies where he went 6.7 innings allowing two earned runs on four hits two walks and seven strikeouts in the win. We want to play ON MLB road favorites when their bullpen has allowed at least one run in two straight games. These road favorites are 472-339 for 58.2 percent winners and a profit of +2543. We are well above the odds we like to lay, for us this is an expensive play but a winner is just that a winner so we will lay the heavy chalk in the ATL on Tuesday night as the Nationals get the win in the Sun.
Marc Lawrence
Milwaukee at Toronto
Play: Toronto -7.5
Edges - Raptors: 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS last 16 games in this series, including 4-0 SUATS off a loss; and 7-2-1 ATS Game Two in a playoff series if not a double-digit dog… Bucks: 0-6 SUATS away versus non-division foe off SU favorite loss this season; and 9-19-1 ATS playoffs wince 2003… The clincher comes from our powerful database as it notes that No. 1-3 seeds home in Game Two of opening round of the playoffs, off a Game One home loss of 4 or more points that are not favored by double digits are 22-2 SUATS since 1990.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Boston
Pick: Boston -7
It was a highly emotional Game 1 at the Garden, as Isaiah Thomas played with a heavy heart after learning his sister passed away from a car accident. There are only five instances since 2003 where a top seed lost the first round series opener, and all five of those teams came back to win Game 2 by an average of 11 points per game.The onus is certainly on Boston to step it up in Game 2, and history as a guide says they do. Boston got a great effort from Thomas, as well as Al Horford, but the rest of the team was a no-show shooting 19-55 at 34.5%. They have to do a better job off the glass, as Chicago had 20 offensive rebounds, and that was a difference maker. Despite the poor shooting from the supporting cast, and a horrible job off the glass, Boston never trailed by double-digits and was in the game all the way to the end. I think Coach Stevens gets this cleaned up, and Boston comes out for Game 2 with passion.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLUMBUS +100 over Pittsburgh
OT included. The strategy continues to be about playing into the market inefficiencies and that applies here. The Jackets were a popular market choice to win Game 3, as they went from a -115 opening line favorite to a -134 closing line favorite. Early on, the bet looked pretty sweet but the Jackets melted down and the Penguins rallied to win it in OT, 5-4. Now the Penguins come in as the chalk, which provides us with this opportunity.
What we have here is a classic zig-zag reaction. Those that wagered on the Jackets in Game 3 are going to find it very difficult to come back on them here. We can understand that because it’s so easy to get influenced by what we just saw. That’s called recency bias and it happens to everyone. Hell, we got caught playing Minnesota to beat St. Louis after watching Game 1 so we’re not immune either.
We have to look at the entire picture. We have to avoid predicting outcomes and play into these aforementioned market inefficiencies. No team wants to be embarrassed by losing four straight games in the playoff so one can expect the Jackets to leave nothing on the table here. By contrast, the Pens killer instinct may not kick in until they get back home to Pittsburgh. While no team wants to give the opposition any hope or life, Pittsburgh has not dominated this series by any stretch and it would come as no surprise if they were not at their best here with a little sense of complacency. The right play is the Jackets based solely on the market’s overreaction to the results and not the performances over the past three games.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO -7½ over Milwaukee
Milwaukee’s 14-point win over the Toronto Raptors was undoubtedly the most impressive victory when compared to the other seven results of Game One scenarios across the league. The Bucks stormed into the Great White North and secured an emphatic win but a few key things had to go right for Milwaukee.
First, Toronto’s dynamic duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan combined for just 31 points. Most notably, Kyle Lowry only scored four of those 31 points, as he had an appalling shooting night, hitting just two shots on 11 attempts. Lowry is known as a prolific marksmen (46.4% field goal percentage in regular season) and when it comes to shooting threes, he has an ability to catalyze the Raps’ downtown operations. Lowry is one the best at doing that as well (41.2% three-point field goal percentage). Lowry was the pulse of Toronto’s post-season run last year when they made it to the Conference Finals. However, he did not hit one three-pointer in the opening game and this is huge considering the domino effect this has on the rest of the Raptors’ squad in terms of boosting morale and generating fanfare from the rabid Toronto support base. Not only did Lowry fail to hit a trey, neither did his running mate DeRozan. In addition, the Raptors are known for a physical and in-your-face defense, yet they had no answer for “The Greek Freak”, Giannis Antetokounmpo who went for 28 points, eight boards, three assists, two steals and a block.
Milwaukee does not have the post-season pedigree that Toronto has of late. Milwaukee is generally known as a perpetual middling franchise that sometimes secures low seed appearances in the playoffs. What happened in the opener is that the Raptors had a horrible shooting night, which leads to several other problems, including frustration. It's easy to fix or overcome.
A year ago in the Conference Quarterfinals, Toronto hosted one of the Bucks’ Central Division pals, the Indiana Pacers. Toronto dropped the first game and lost by 10. However, it would answer the call with a 16-point win in Game Two. In other words, this is not uncharted territory for the Raps. The Raptors will not hit the panic switch. Instead, they’ll re-group and put forth a strong effort. Bad shooting nights happen but they are impossible to predict. However, the Raps are a strong shooting team so there is likely a big correction coming in their shooting % in Game 2. Last game, Toronto opened as a 7½-point choice and didn’t come close to covering in a 14-point loss. There is a reason why this number did not budge despite the impressive Bucks’ win on Saturday. That makes us buyers.
L.A. CLIPPERS -9 over Utah
Despite the loss of star center Rudy Gobert on its first possession of Game 1, Utah was able to ride the emotional title wave to a 97-95 win on the back of Joe Johnson's buzzer beater. The loss of Gobert cannot be understated. Everything the Jazz do runs through him. It was incredibly impressive how this young Utah team was able to overcome his loss but at the time it was in the middle of a game and that next man up mentality set in. Now that they've been idle since Saturday, reality will set in that they lost one of the league's best defensive players. Veteran Derrick Favors stepped in admirably for Gobert but he, too, is banged up. The best thing for the Jazz would have been to get right back on the court but this two-day break is not beneficial.
The old adage is that a series doesn't really start until the home team loses. For the Clip Joint, that means “it's go time”. Since their rise to prominence, the Clippers have been perennial playoff disappointments. They've blown a 2-0 to Portland and a 3-1 lead to Houston in recent years. L.A.'s “other” team is often favored by a large margin but its inconsistency in the postseason makes it nearly impossible to lay this kind of wood. That hasn't changed this year, as the Clippers we're a -5½ point favorite and a popular market pick in Game 1. At no point did it ever look like L.A. was going to run away with that game. It was tied at halftime and the Jazz took a four-point lead into the fourth quarter. If not for Chris Paul going bananas by scoring 10 straight points in the final frame, the Clippers could have been blown out of the water.
Now, oddsmakers are asking the Clip Joint to cover a much larger number. That may seem like a tall task after the Clippers failed to take advantage of the Jazz after a major in-game injury but that failure should only serve as motivation here to leave nothing in doubt. That Game 1 loss has been called embarrassing for a Clippers team that was expected to take the next step toward title contention this season. Man for man, the Jazz cannot matchup with the Clippers, especially with the loss of Gobert but all of that is food for thought only. A key criterion to wagering successfully is being able to recognize something too enticing. In this case, the Jazz won as a 5½-point dog and now they’re getting even more points. This to us is a clear enticement by the books to take the points and that is our prompt to swallow them.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +156 over TORONTO
This is simply a must play regardless of the pitchers. Toronto has won only two games this season. Furthermore, one of those victories came in their third game of the year, meaning they’ve lost eight of their last nine. Most of the games have at least been close, but they are coming off an 11-4 drubbing at the hands of the Orioles and they’re also dealing with injuries galore. Josh Donaldson being out makes a big difference. Marcus Stroman is the best pitcher in the Blue Jays’ rotation with Aaron Sanchez on the shelf. After missing almost all of 2015 with a knee injury, he came back last year to put together a fine season. This spring, he put himself back on the map in the World Baseball Classic and he’s been better through his first two starts this year by ERA, but the groundball pitcher has also seen a decrease in strikeouts. Stroman has nine K’s in 15 frames but a very weak 6% swing and miss rate. Boston figures to put the ball in play here and if they can get some balls in the air against Stroman, they could have plenty of success.
The Blue Jays are not scoring runs and that’s the big risk here. They’ll also face a pitcher they have never seen before in Brian Johnson. Johnson is a southpaw that has a strong frame with plenty of durability. He uses his 6’4” height well and throws from a high three-quarters slot to keep the ball low in the zone. Johnson’s fastball can be relatively straight, but because of his height and angle, he is more of a groundball pitcher. He has an advanced feel for pitching with an above average repertoire. His fastball sits between 88-93 mph, but his best attributes revolve around his sequencing, changing speeds, and command. Johnson has two breaking balls at his disposal with his curveball being the better of the two. He also mixes in a good changeup that he throws with the same arm speed as his other offerings. Without a plus pitch, he’ll need to rely on his savvy and moxie in the majors but these are the type of pitchers that the Jays usually struggle against. Johnson had to leave a recent start early after being hit in the head with a line drive. Luckily, he was okay and able to make his next start. That was last week and he showed no ill effects of the incident. He had 15 strikeouts to just four walks through his first 10.2 innings at Triple AAA Pawtucket. Johnson was a hot prospect a couple years ago and had it not been for an injury (ulnar nerve issue in his elbow), he would have been called up earlier but make no mistake, this kid can pitch .Johnson owns a career 2.58 ERA, 2.8 BB’s/9, and 8.5 K’s/9 in the minors since his selection in the first round of the 2012 draft and he and the Red Sox are absolutely worth a bet here at this price.
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +111 over Chicago
We’re going to continue to roll with the Yankees here after they cashed our only baseball ticket last night. The Yanks are scoring runs in bunches, they’re having a lot of fun, they’re winning a bunch of games and they’ll see another weak starter here. Miguel Gonzalez spent most of April last year in AAA then spent four weeks on the DL in Aug-Sep for a groin strain. His skills have been barely roster worthy for years anyway. Gonzalez’s weak control (six walks in 11 innings) is supported by a weak 45% first-pitch strike rate. His weak hr/f is supported by his high fly-ball rate. Gonzalez has a 4% swing and miss rate, a 1.97 WHIP and a 6.34 xERA. The planets of random luck have worked in his favor for years but it won't keep giving.
Luis Severino is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. Last year, Severino struggled as a starter in the majors (0-8, 8.50 ERA in 47.2 innings). Many expected he'd build on his rookie success and cement a rotation spot but his first half struggles helped crush that idea. He seemed more at home in the bullpen (0.39 ERA in 23 IP), but given his youth and stuff, he’ll get a chance to fix his issues, including lost effectiveness of his change-up. The good news is that Severino may have already fixed his issues and could be in line for a great year. He has quietly struck out 17 batters in 12 frames while walking just two. He has a 1.08 WHIP and an outstanding 2.49 xERA. All of Severino’s early skills are supported by his sub-indicators and it’s also worth noting that the Yanks have a great bullpen to lock it down.
Brandon Lee
Indians vs. Twins
Play: Twins +110
Minnesota is worth a look here as a home dog against the Indians. Cleveland won the series opener yesterday 3-1, but are just way overvalued to start the season and this Twins team is playing well above expectations to start out 2017. Not only do we have a home division dog here, but Minnesota should have the edge on the mound. Cleveland will send out Josh Tomlin, who has been awful to start, allowing 13 runs on 15 hits in 6 1/3 innings (18.45 ERA). Minnesota will give the ball to Phil Hughes, who is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in 2 starts, both of which were on the road. I look for a strong outing here from Hughes.
Jimmy Boyd
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Play: Detroit +107
I really like the value here with Detroit at basically a pick'em on the road against Tampa Bay. The Tigers just took 2 of 3 at Cleveland and are now 7-3 over their last 10. The Rays lost the final 3 of their 4-game set at Boston yesterday and are just 1-6 in their last 7 overall. Hard to not like Detroit with last year's AL Rookie of the Year, Michael Fulmer, on the mound. Fulmer doesn't get hyped up by the media like some of these other young arms, which is why I believe he's showing so much value early on in 2017. He hasn't even pitched that great in his first two outings and has a 2.25 ERA and 0.917 WHIP with 11 strikeouts and just 3 walks in 12 innings of work.
It's been two completely different results for Tampa Bay starter Matt Andriese and I'm willing to gamble that he fails to keep pace with Fulmer in this one. Andriese has made one start against the Tigers and allowed 4 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in just 5 1/3 innings. I also think we could see the Rays come out a bit flat after yesterday's loss and the unusual flight back home after a Monday game.
Tony Finn
Detroit at Tampa Bay
Play: Detroit +105
Spring baseball is underway in Florida. The temps are nearly perfect and tonight's event between the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays at the Trop are ideal. The scheduled first pitch is 7:10 p.m. ET in St. Petersburg, Florida with a matchup of American League ROY right-hander Michael Fulmer making his third start of the season versus righty Matt Andriese and Tampa Bay. Tonight's event is the opener of a three-game set.
Fulmer looks to continue his solid start to the 2017 campaign and continue his rookie success. Fulmer squared off against the Rays in two starts last season, striking out 21 and permitting one run over 14 innings. Fulmer allowed three runs in six innings of work in his last outing while striking out seven Minnesota Twins. He opened with six scoreless innings of four-hit baseball against Boston. Fulmer dominated Tampa in his award winning rookie season. The Rays hit a mere.128 against Fulmer last year over his two turns.
Matt Andriese is off a solid outing against the New York Yankees. The Rays righty allowed one run on five hits over six innings. Andriese has made only one start against Detroit in his career registering a 1-1 mark with a 5.73 ERA.
Fulmer has the difficult task of matching his ROY campaign of a year ago. His underlying peripherals allow him to have success at this level even after the league becomes more accustomed to his arsenal. Fulmer has limited hard contact and has a near fifty percent ground ball ratio (49% GB) while limiting his walks (7% BB). His advanced metrics (4.52 SIERA, 4.98 xFIP) don't match his ROY surface numbers of a year ago, stats that saw the rookie righty to register a 3.06 ERA but with minor adjustments and his ability to limit hard hit fly balls he is slated to have a long career in the "Bigs".
Andriese's surface stats are deceiving. His control and groundball rate will keep him and his teammates in games in most of his starts but Andriese doesn’t miss enough bats and doesn’t induce enough weak contact to place him in anything more than a fourth of fifth starting role for any Major League franchise moving forward.
In truth, this is a pitching mismatch and Fulmer faces a Rays lineup that isn't nearly as dangerous against right-handed pitching as they are versus lefties.
Brad Wilton
Tuesday night comp play is for the Boston Celtics to square their series with the Chicago Bulls, and square it convincingly.
Chicago was able to hang around over the weekend, and eventually steal the outright win over the Celtics.
I do not think they can do it again tonight. In fact, I think this one has blowout written all over it.
Prior to Sunday's upset win by the Bulls in Beantown, the home team in this series had won and covered 7 in a row!
Look for that trend to return to the norm tonight, as Boston can ill-afford to head back to the Windy City down 0-2.
Chicago has done their job in stealing the home court advantage away from the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference, but there is a reason Boston earned that # 1 seed, and you will see a different C's team on that parquet floor tonight.
Big time blowout from the host.
Boston by at least 12 points tonight.
4* BOSTON
Eric Schroeder
I've been riding the New York Yankees for several reasons the past six nights. I'm back on the pinstripes for a seventh consecutive night, as I think they will destroy the Chicago White Sox for a second straight game.
Last Wednesday night I took the New York Yankees because of Jordan Montgomery's Major League pitching debut.
Thursday and Friday night I took the Yankees because they started rolling and appeared to be playing well, and hit a pair of 80 Dimers.
Saturday and Sunday, with the start of the NBA Playoffs, I was on the pinstripes with my complimentary winners. Last night I delivered the Yankees on the Run Line for another 80 Dime Winner.
Today my complimentary winner is back on the Bronx Bombers, as I'm riding the Yankees once again. This is baseball ladies and gentlemen - and in case you hadn't noticed we roll with streaks in this game.
The Yankees have won eight straight games and will surely be able to keep things going against the South Siders. New York has seemingly turned things around since losing four of their first five games. New York's offense has scored 49 runs in a seven-game span, beginning last Sunday, when the Yankees were in Baltimore.
Fact is, the Yankees' bats have benefited from poor pitching, and a slew of home runs by their young lineup.
Now, I know the White Sox have the second-best ERA in baseball, but they arrive in the midst of a nine-game road trip, and will be playing their eighth consecutive road game in as many days, after trips to Cleveland and Minneapolis last week.
Having to start the week still on a road trip, and in the Bronx to boot, is not advantageous for Chicago.
Take New York for this 7:05 p.m. first pitch, as it continues to roll.
1* YANKEES -1.5
Chris Jordan
Tonight I'm playing the Houston Astros, minus the big number against the Angels, who are in from Anaheim.
Houston has always been one of my favorite home teams during the MLB season, as temperatures rise. You can bet visiting teams will struggle as the temps get higher, and the Houston humidity gets thicker.
The humidity is around 65 percent, and that's a vast difference for a team out of Southern California. Anaheim doesn't get near as humid, and since the Angels are already struggling, this trip won't bode well for them.
While Houston comes into this game riding a five-game win streak, the Halos have lost six in a row.
The Astros are tied with the third-best batting average (.268) in the bigs, while the Angels are hitting a bleak .198 on the road - second-worst in the league. The Halos have also scored just 18 runs on the highway, which is fourth-worst in the majors. That is bad news since the Astros have the fifth-best home ERA (2.51) in the bigs.
I love everything about the Astros tonight.
5* ASTROS