Harry Bondi
CHICAGO +7.5 over Boston
Chicago is just a bad match-up for the Celtics. Bulls crushed the C’s on the boards in winning game 1 and will have their way on the glass again tonight. Boston had a great regular season and ended with the best record in the Eastern Conference, but this team is not built for the playoffs where defense and rebounding are the keys to success. Celtic’s are 2-9 in the playoffs under Head Coach Brad Stevens, Boston star Isiah Thomas’s head is not right with his 22 year old sister’s funeral tomorrow and Celtic’s continue to be overrated by the odds maker’s as they are just 1-7 vs spread in last eight home tilts. Meanwhile, Chicago has covered 8 of their last ten games and are the more experienced post-season team. Chicago gets the money again tonight!
Dave Essler
Phillies / Mets Over 7.5
I think the reason this opened at 8.5 was because the Met's HAD been hitting and the Phillies have NOT been hitting, but I also think that the move down is wrong, obviously. The weather is fine, reasonably warm, decent breeze R to L. But, this is about the pitchers and not the offenses. The Phillies just saw Wheeler, most of them for the first time. They didn't exactly hammer him, but they plated three runs in a little over five innings, an added another one. So, they now know what to expect. Although Philadelphia has been losing, they've score four or more runs in four of their last five games, and the Mets' bullpen still doesn't have Familia back and is marginal at best. The Mets have hit a ton of bombs over the last week, and now they get Eflin coming off the DL, and he gave up a dozen long balls in only 63 innings last season. He'll probably be on a pitch count, and that's just fine because the Phillies bullpen is as close to pathetic as the Cardinals' pen. With that in mind, I do think the Mets win but am not laying that kind of chalk. This could be one of those cases where I could make the case for the Mets -1.5, but I just won't go against myself and my theory of not doing that with home teams. So, they're probably a great small bet or a reasonable side of a ML parlay. Maybe you just put them with the Yankees and call it good.
OC Dooley
Blue Jays -170
Even though Toronto is a horrible 2-10 overall while averaging the "least" runs per game in the majors, they have been installed as a prohibitive favorite this evening since visiting Boston had to CHANGE pitchers. With Eduardo Rodriguez going on paternity leave, the Red Sox have called up Brian Johnson from the minors. In my opinion there is a "red flag" involving Johnson as most 26 year old hurlers are already operating at the major league level. I am aware that Toronto lost at home 11-4 back on Sunday, but their starting pitcher JA Happ had to make an early exit due to injury. While the Blue Jays are 2-10 EIGHT of those setbacks have been close games decided by 2-or-less runs in margin. Boston played yesterday morning at home and ended up improving to 22-5 in the past twenty-seven affair (at home during the day), but now they are on the road in a primetime situation. Toronto has seen 2 of their starting pitchers go on the disabled list so they are leaning on Marcus Stroman to achieve this evening
Otto Sports
Miami at Seattle
Play: Over 8.5
Two starts into the season and there isn't much to suggest Seattle Yovani Gallardo can return to being an above average MLB starter. Gallardo had some of the worst stats in the league last season (5.42 ERA/5.04 FIP) with the Orioles. In two outings for the Mariners, he lasted only 10 innings, allowed 15 hits, seven runs, and flashed a dismal 6/6 K-to-BB ratio. No matter what the venue or who the opponent, it's extremely difficult to trust Gallardo at this point in his career. The same could be said for Miami's Wei-Yin Chen. After a great four-year run in Baltimore (3.72 ERA), the 31-year-old appears to be on the downside of his career. Despite switching to the National League and getting to toss in a very pitcher friendly park, Chen regressed in a big way in 2016. Some of his struggles could be tied to an elbow problem that forced him to miss time. Reportedly healthy, Chen looked strong in his first start of the season (6 IP, 1 ER) against the Mets but turned right around six days later and was torched for six runs in three innings against the same lineup. Seattle hasn't exactly been crushing the baseball (.231/.308/.378/.685) and is without the services of one of its better weapons in Jean Segura (DL). That said, Chen's middling stuff offers an opportunity for a good night at the plate. With two average at best starters and a very reasonable total, we'll look to play over.