DAVE COKIN
METS AT PHILLIES
PLAY: METS +100
If you go back far enough in this blog’s archives, you’ll find a glowing assessment of Vincent Velasquez upon his being called up by the Houston Astros. As much as I like many of the moves the ‘Stros have been making, one I did not like was the deal with the Phillies for Ken Giles. I though the idea of giving up a guy with a real chance to be a #1 or at the very least #2 starting pitcher and getting a one-inning arm in return was stupid. So far, I’m looking pretty good on that one.
Nevertheless, I will be playing against Velasquez this evening. There’s a nice angle in play here, which is going against a pitcher off his first career complete game shutout. While Velasquez has been sensational to start the season, this is still a prime bounce situation.
Logan Verrett gets the call for the Mets tonight, and while it wasn’t a headline grabber, Verrett’s initial start this season was also very positive. I’m not sure Verrett has the arsenal to be a full time starting pitcher. He’s really more a fastball/slider guy and his secondary pitches are kind of ordinary. But in a spot start scenario, Verrett seems okay.
The Mets are suddenly getting out of the gate nicely, as they have now scored a first inning run in each of their last four games. That’s fairly meaningful, as the win percentage of teams getting on the board first is pretty impressive. That doesn’t mean they necessarily score early against Velasquez, but it’s a nice little current form add to the overall equation.
I think there’s good value here on the road team’s side. The Phillies are proving to be a scrappy bunch so far, but this is still a well below average team. The Mets are only playing .500 baseball so far, but they’ve now won four out of five and the doorman offense has awakened.
Velasquez is a star in the making and I can’t say I’ll be overwhelmed if he throws another good game here. But it’s not a plus scenario for the young righty and I like the team form of the Mets, who are simply the better entry when compared to the Phillies. The Mets at roughly even money are a take for me.
Sleepyj
Minnesota -138
I'll jump on the Twins here today at home...Wily Peralta will take the hill for the Brewers and it hasn't been good for him since day 1 of the new season...Peralta hold a ERA of 10.13 and he hasn't last more than 5 innings in his 3 starts this year....WHIP of 2.01 tells us he is struggling overall as well....He has walked 8 batters and allowed 20 hits in his 3 starts..He has only pitched a total of 13 innings...So giving up a walk almost every other inning and 1 hit and half isn't very good..He finds himself in trouble and the Twins lineup won;t be easy for him to navigate around....His strikeouts have improved, but nothing worth noting as of yet...On the flip side the Twins will send out Santana...Santana has actually pitched half decent in his games..Problem for him is the Twins failed to help with run support...Overall his ERA is only 3.00...WHIP 1.33...He has worked a total of 15 innings, struck out 16 and walked 5 batters...He has allowed 15 hits, but only 1 HR....His 0-1 record could easily be 1-1 or even 2-1..I'd go as far as saying he could be 3-0...Twins have not scored more than 3 runs with him on the mound...Santana has not given up more than 3 ER in his 3 starts...He really had no help with run support, but i feel the Twins have snapped out of that funk...They started the season out the season 0-9, but since rattled off 3 straight winners with a sweep over the Angels...The bats got it going and the Twins have scored a total of 14 runs in the last 3 games..The result for game 1 of this series is still (pending)....Twins only scored a total of 15 runs in that 0-9 stretch...So they almost duplicated that amount in 3 games Vs. the Angels..I'll take the Twinkies in this one...I will consider a RL wager as well if i can get a + 160 for -1.5
Rob Vinciletti
Tigers vs. Royals
Play:Royals -155
KC has won 7 of 8 in night games and check in at 3-0 vs division teams. They have Ventura going tonight and he has a 2.45 era and has been solid in 2 home starts vs Detroit allowing 1 run in 13 innings. He should be able to out pitch Greene for Detroit who has lost both team starts vs KC. Ventura is 7-2 in his last 9 April starts. Play on KC Tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Mets vs. Phillies
Play: Mets +102
Vince Velasquez is off to a great start in his first season with the Phillies. One of his two wins came against these Mets just 10 days ago. One of the problems in backing the right-hander is the fact he'll be on a limited innings count this season. While he was excellent in his first two starts, I doubt we'll see many more 113 pitch count performances like we saw last time out against the Padres. Velasquez did not fare well over his final seven appearances (all relief) last season with Houston, posting a 7.86 ERA & 1.84 WHIP. He has pitched a little over his head to start 2016, in my opinion. And if he can't last deep into the start, Velasquez will give way to the pen with the 27th ranked ERA. We should note the Mets are on a 21-9 run on the road against bullpens with a WHIP between 1.45 & 1.55. Logan Verrett makes his second spot start for Jecob deGrom and he was excellent in his first. Verrett has a tremendous slider and we expect little trouble against the Phils. He's allowed just 56 base runners in 54.2 IP since coming into the "show" last season, for a sizzling 1.02 WHIP. And he'll face a Phillies' offense that has scored just 18 runs in their last eight games, combined. I expect more of the same tonight and I'm recommending a play on the NY Mets on Tuesday.
Marc Lawrence
Tigers vs. Royals
Play:Royals -155
Edges - Royals: Yordano Ventura 2-0 with 0.69 ERA career home team starts in this series. Tigers: Shane Greene 0-2 career team starts in this series. With Ventura also 8-4 in his career team starts during April, including 7-2 the last nine, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Brad Diamond
Toronto -141
Orioles come in on another homer binge, but must face RHP Stroman of Toronto who is 7-0 last 8 starts with a 2.82 ERA. His mound opponent is RHP Wright of Baltimore who has been shelled by the O's going 0-2 with a 11.81 ERA. The Jays looked a little better at the back end of the Red Sox despite still hitting .230. Look for Stroman to shutdown the Birds tonight with this fantastic sinker ball helping the road unit in an important American League East battle.
John Ryan
Mariners vs. Indians
Play: Mariners +145
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 94-76 mark good for 55% winners and has made 61 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on AL road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (SEATTLE) with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cleveland starter Carrasco’s team record is just 4-15 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record; 7-20 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in home games facing an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse. Further, Cleveland does not enter this game off a good situation noting they are a money burning 4-14 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 straight games with no home runs over the last 2 seasons.
Darryl Tucholski
Mets vs. Phillies
Play:Mets +106
Despite the Mets 5-6 start, on the road against the red-hot Vincent Velasquez. I'm taking the Mets +106 (2*) The Phillies luck is due to run out, they have scored 3 or less in their last 7 games. The Mets have won 3 of their last 4, and have scored at least 5 runs in their last three games.
Will Rogers
Penguins vs. Rangers
Play: Under 5½
With the series tied at 1-1, we should expect a cautious approach from both the Rangers and the Penguins here in Game 3 at Madison Square Garden. While the total went over in each of the first two games of this series, I expect goals to be hard to come by in tonight's pivotal contest.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Goaltending - Henrik Lundqvist was brilliant in Game 2, stopping 29-of-31 shots. He's got far better numbers at home than he does on the road, boasting a record of 22-6-3 with a 2.31 GAA during the regular season.
2. Previous History - Both games so far in this playoff series have seen plenty of scoring, but the under was 4-1-2 in the previous seven meetings heading into this series.
3. X-Factor - Sidney Crosby had a goal and two assists in Game 1, but was held scoreless in Game 2. The Rangers defense isn't likely to give him any open ice tonight.
Frank Jordan
Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs -18.5
Game one was all Spurs as they out scored Memphis in every quarter on their way to a 106-74 drumming of the Grizzlies. Memphis shot well, but they didn't get to the foul line and San Antonio shot lights out 52% from the field, 45% from three and 12 of 13 from the foul line a near perfect game. Memphis had a day to make adjustments, but there were none to be made as they are out manned and outgunned. Look for the Spurs to do the same in game two as they can not be beaten at home and they are in fact the ones doing the beating as they roll to another 20+ victory at home.
Big Al
Tampa Bay vs. Detroit
Pick: Under
When it comes to these two teams, there's been a pretty big difference between the games played in Tampa and those played in Detroit lately. In the last four games played at the home of the Lightning - including the first two games of this playoff series - a total of 24 goals have been tallied, or an average of six per game. However in the last three games played here at the Joe Louis arena (including game three of this series), these two clubs have managed to light the lamp just nine total times. A big part of the reason for the lack of scoring between these two in Detroit has been the excellent goaltending of Jimmy Howard. Howard has been a pretty good goalie this season regardless of where he's played, however he's been a much more effective when playing at home vs. the road. In 21 games as a visitor, Howard posted a very mediocre 3.07 GAA and .902 saves percentage. However, in 16 games at Joe Louis Arena, that goals-against went down by more than a half-goal to 2.44 (and the saves pct increased to .912).
Jim Feist
Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Colorado Rockies
The Reds lost their second straight game on Monday, a 5-1 loss to the Rockies. The Reds are now 6-7 on the season and have allowed 71 runs (3rd worst in the NL). Meanwhile, the Rockies have moved into a first play tie with the Dodgers at 8-5. Jorge De La Rosa starts for the Rockies. De La Rosa has had a rough time, posting a 8.80 ERA. However, the Rockies have won two of his three starts this season. Alfredo Simon is even worst, posting a 0-1 record and 12.15 ERA with a whopping 2.55 WHIP. Simon has not lasted past the first inning in either of his last two starts. Neither pitcher is very good, but the Rockies have much more firepower. I'm taking the road team here with the Rockies.
Larry Ness
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Pick: Texas Rangers
The Houston Astros moved to the AL (West) back in 2013 but were a mess, coming off back-to-back seasons of 106 and 107 losses, respectively. Houston went 51-111 in its first year as an AL team but improved 19 games to go 70-92 in 2014. Then last year, the Astros chased their in-state rivals (the Texas Rangers) all the way to the final week of the 2016 regular season, before Texas edged Houston by two games. Last year’s race sets a tone for what’s now a real rivalry with the Astros' resurgence.
Both teams expect to contend for playoff spots again in 2016 but admittedly, neither club has started 2016 the way either had hoped. Texas is a modest 7-6, while Houston just 5-8. The Rangers open this three-game set in Arlington, off two days' rest. Texas saw its series finale against Baltimore rained out on Sunday (Rangers won two of the three played against the Orioles) and Monday was a scheduled off day. That’s good news, as the Rangers had played 13 straight days. Texas is now scheduled to play 22 of the next 23 days. Meanwhile, the Astros have started slowly this season and didn't win a series until taking two of three from Detroit with Sunday's 5-4 victory. However, they didn't hit their stride until mid-April in 2015, following a 4-6 start.
Scott Feldman (0-1, 3.48), who spent his first eight seasons with Texas, will get the start for Houston (he begins his THIRD season with the Astros). He lost both starts against his former team last season, giving up 10 runs and 18 hits (including three HRs) over just 8.2 innings. The veteran right-hander is 0-4 with a 5.50 ERA in his last seven starts at Globe Life Park dating to his time with the Rangers. That’s not good news when one considers that the Rangers took the season series 13-6 (plus-$1,035) from the Astros last year, including victories in their final SEVEN home meetings with Houston.
Derek Holland (1-0, 2.31 ERA) was slated to start on Sunday but rain in Baltimore postponed the contest and he was pushed back to Tuesday. He defeated Seattle in his last start with 6.2 innings of four-hit shutout ball and has given up just eight hits in 11.2 innings in two outings so far in 2016. Holland is 3-2 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 career starts against Houston but note that Texas is 7-3 in those starts. I’m taking the home team.
Power Sports
Toronto vs. Baltimore
Pick: Toronto
The Blue Jays won yesterday afternoon in Boston and now they move to a different city and another division rival, that being Baltimore, who is a major surprise at 8-3. With Marcus Stroman going, I like their chances to take tonight's series opener. Stroman's ERA isn't very good, but he has a good WHIP, and that's good enough.
WHIP is a better predictor of future performance than ERA, so the discrepancy the Stroman has between the two certainly isn't a bad thing. He has a 4.22 ERA, but 0.985 WHIP, the latter being a strong number. That's after a strong outing against the Yankees last Thursday as he went a full eight innings and gave up two runs on just three hits. Another thing to like about Stroman is his ground ball percentage of 65.2, which ranks among the league leaders. Over his L8 starts, Stroman is unbeaten and his ERA during that time is 2.82.
The Orioles counter with Mike Wright, who had his fair share of problems with the Blue Jays last season. He was roughed up in two starts, losing both and finishing with an 11.81 ERA. In 5 1/3 IP, he gave up seven runs. With the respective offenses being what they are here, this game likely hinges on the starters, so in that department it's a big edge to Toronto. The Blue Jays won a one-run game yday, which was long overdue after going 15-32 in such results dating back to the start of last season. Don't be surprised if they win by that margin again tonight.
Bruce Marshall
NY Rangers +101
The return of GK Henrik Lundqvist gave the Rangers a boost in Game Two. Now New York hopes key defender Ryan McDonagh returns to active duy tonight in Game Three. The Rangers have been a formidable 27-10-4 this season at MSG, where Lundqvist is 22-6-3 with a 2.31 GAA. Pittsburgh is now the team with some injury worries as third-string GK Jeff Zatkoff might have to make a third straight start with the status still iffy for Marc-Andre Fleury and usual backup Matt Murray.