Harry Bondi
TAMPA BAY -110 over Boston
Manager John Farrell's inept handling of the Red Sox relievers cost Boston the game against Toronto yesterday. Farrell's on the hot seat in Boston and his managing so far can best be described as erratic. Leading 1-0 heading into the eighth Monday he watched reliever Koji Uehara walk two, hit a batter and give up four runs while getting just one out before taking him out of the game! By then it was over and so will his tenure as Boston's manager if he can't right the ship. Joe Kelly and his 10.13 ERA takes the mound for the Sox tonight and he was hammered by the Rays giving up 10 runs in 10 innings of work against them last season! Smyly, on the other hand, has been money on the road winning his last 3 starts and he loves pitching at Fenway as his 3-1 record and 1.77 ERA attests. Rays Roll.
Jimmy Boyd
Celtics / Hawks Over 205
The Hawks and Celtics went UNDER the total in Game 1, as they combined for 203 points with a total posted at 206.5. The books have adjusted slight for Game 2, but I think that's a mistake. These two teams combined for 203 points with neither team shooting well from the field. Boston only hit 36.3% (37-102) from the field, while the Hawks weren't much better at 40.7% (35-86). Atlanta was also a miserable 18.5% (5-27) from behind the 3-point line, well below their season average of 35.2% at home. I look for both teams to come out and shoot the ball much better and with the tempo they are playing at, this game should fly over the total. Keep in mind that Boston lost one of their best defensive players in Avery Bradley, which is a bigger loss than people think. It's also worth noting that in the previous 3 meetings during the regular season these two teams combined for at least 210 points. A mark I see them eclipsing tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh -110 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The Rangers went into Pittsburgh and could very easily be up 2-0 instead of being tied 1-1. The Rangers dominated Game 1 so that 5-2 loss is very misleading. While we give the Rangers credit for what they accomplished in the first two games, things are very likely going to take a turn for the worse here.
You see, Pittsburgh just wasn’t prepared properly for what the Rangers brought to the table. The Rangers came out and employed a “hit everything in sight” strategy. They Rangers played an extremely physical two games and we’re suggesting that it somewhat caught the Penguins off guard. The Rangers are not good enough to compete with Pittsburgh so they brought an old-style play to the table and they almost pulled off the double upset. Now that the Penguins have had time to digest what happened and prepare for whatever strategy the Rangers bring, the true colors of both clubs figure to be on display.
Those true colors are as follows: New York is a weak puck possession team that relies on luck, blocking shots and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist to win games. When they do win, they usually get outplayed. The Rangers defense is slow-footed and often has trouble moving the puck out of their own end.
Pittsburgh is a puck-possession monster that can play any style whatsoever. The Penguins have point producers and great role players that know exactly what is expected of them. We have not come close to seeing the best the Penguins have to offer in this series. Again, we’re suggesting they may have been caught off guard a bit and perhaps the return of Evgeni Malkin wreaked a little havoc on a rhythm that the Penguins had set with their established lines while Malkin was out. That all changes here. Pens are going to be a different team in New York and we’re very likely going to be cashing this ticket.
St. Louis +145 over CHICAGO
OT included. The Blackhawks are NHL royalty. They're a very popular team and one the market loves to back. Tonight appears to be a must win game for Chicago and money has been pouring in on the ‘Hawks since this line opened. As division foes and longtime rivals, the Blue Notes see a lot of the Blackhawks and they are not intimidated by playing in Chicago, having won their last two games there. Some folks may feel the Blackhawks have nothing to worry about. After all, they overcame a 2-0 series deficit to beat these Blues in 2014. We aren't going to put a lot of stock into past results, as every game in this series has pretty much been a tossup and that's why value is so important. The Blues are taking back a great price today because they are playing a very popular team, at home, in a must win playoff game. We're just fine with that, as it gives us a great chance to back a really good team with a clear advantage between the pipes. The clock is ticking on Corey Crawford's inevitable implosion and we wouldn't be shocked if it happened tonight.
We were very curious to see how the Blues would respond after getting jammed in the third period of their Game 2 loss in St. Louis. Replay is supposed to get the calls right but after Game 2, we're pretty sure that's not going to happen. That's no slight on the officials or the process, but even with review, the results of many plays are still very much subjective. Blues coach Ken Hitchcock let his team and anyone else that would listen know that they aren't going to get any calls against the defending champs. To Hitch, it's one versus all and his players responded with a win in a hard fought Game 3 at Chicago. Brian Elliot was brilliant again stopping 44 of 46 shots. It would have been easy for the Blue Notes to tuck their tails between their legs or just lay down and die when the calls didn't go their way after a very disappointing end to Game 2 but they didn't. Instead, St. Louis went into the Mad House on Madison and took the Hawks’ best shot. St. Louis trailed after two periods and rallied, which is a huge momentum builder because the Blackhawks NEVER blow a third period lead. Now St. Louis has a chance to put a stranglehold on this series. They have failed miserably in the past under these conditions but this team has a different feel about them this year. We cannot overstate enough the confidence that the Blues are playing with after getting burned in Game 2 and rallying in Game 3. The Blue Notes are not overmatched here and therefore offer up some tremendous value again.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels +110 over CHICAGO
We’re going to come right back on the Angels today after they went into U.S. Cellular yesterday and whacked the White Sox, 7-0. The South Side has now scored five times in their past four games. They have scored three runs or less in six straight but because they got off to a torrid start, they are overpriced again today against Matt Shoemaker. A shaky 2015 confirmed that Shoemaker’s 2014 was the outlier that included bullpen work, a short trip to the minors, and a Sept. forearm strain. Shoemaker’s control and command regressed as an increase in fly balls led to more HR. With middling velocity and lack of a knockout skill, Shoemakers does not have a lot of upside so we’re not going to sugarcoat his ability. This wager is not about backing Shoemaker but about fading a team that is seeing BB’s and that has a starting pitcher going that is worse than Shoemaker.
Mat Latos has been on five teams since the end of the 2014 season because teams’ can’t dump him fast enough. Latos has a low 52% first-pitch strike rate after two starts this season. He only walked two batters in 12 innings but he’s always had good control so batters are expecting strikes. It doesn’t take hitters at this level long to figure out things so these Angel batters are going to be a lot more patient at the plate than the two previous teams that Latos faced this season. Latos has an ERA of 0.75 after two starts. That’s actually amusing for a guy that has six strikeouts, a 37%/54% groundball/fly-ball split and a 6% swing and miss rate. Nothing in Latos's skillset indicates that any major improvements loom. It also doesn’t help that U.S. Cellular enhances HR by 10%. What we have here is a pitcher with a low ERA of 0.75 (we’re selling high) after two starts that has an xERA of 4.54. Latos’ chances of blowing up here are far greater than his chances of being effective.
Detroit (5 innings) +120
We are absolutely not putting the Tigers pen up against the Royals pen here so we’ll play this one in the first five frames. Yordano Ventura is another young arm with an electric fastball who started to make gains late in 2015. He turned his top-tier raw stuff into near-elite skills after the All-Star Break with 9.7 K’s/9 and a 53% groundball rate. Ventura’s high rate of strikeouts was supported by an 11.5% swing and miss rate and he’s up to those standards again this year with 12 K’s in 11 frames to go along with a 2.45 ERA after two starts. However, Ventura is not throwing enough strikes. His xERA after two starts is 4.64 and that’s because he’s walked nine batters. He’s always had control problems so there is nothing new or surprising about his results. These pitchers with live arms and control problems are too big a risk to be spotting a tag with and Ventura is not an exception.
Shane Greene is high on our radar this year as one of the most undervalued starters in the game. Greene posted a 9.35 ERA in his final 60 innings of last season before he underwent surgery to repair an aneurysm in his hand that resulted in cold and numbness in the fingers on his throwing hand. Here’s what Greene had to say about it,"My fingers were going freezing cold and turning black and blue," Greene said. It wasn't necessarily that I couldn't feel the ball. It was every time the ball would come off my fingers, it was stinging really bad. It would be like having really cold toes and then stomping your toes. That's the only way I can describe it. It was just a freak thing.""Nobody really had any answers," he said. "I didn't have any pain except for cold fingers, so being a competitor, I just (decided) I'm going to go and compete until they tell me I can't anymore. And it just became an issue where all I could think about are my fingers. So that's when I said enough is enough." Greene said surgery was performed through his armpit and that it didn't take much time to get his range of motion back after the surgery since the issue wasn't muscle-related in any way.
We are going to absolutely give him a pass for last year’s results because of that aforementioned injury. Greene is healthy again. It’s a good thing you are reading this because much of the market is not aware of how good he is. We’re strongly suggesting that Greene’s stuff is legit. When healthy, Greene had a 15%+ swing and miss rate on his slider, curveball, and changeup in 2014. He throws 94 MPH heat with late life and has an elite groundball rate too. Wipe the slate clean on Shane Greene’s 2015 season and start over. The market is sleeping on this guy right now but we’re not. If this ticket doesn’t cash, no big deal because there will be another opportunity to buy Greene at a low cost. However, that window is going to close in a hurry once the market becomes aware.
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +127 over Oakland
Michael Pineda has a 6.55 ERA after two starts. Many will look at that unsightly ERA and back off but not us because we know better than to put much weight on early ERA’s when a pitcher has such strong skills. Pineda is a legit breakout target. Reference his 11/3 K/BB in 11 innings. Reference his 14% swing and miss rate and 52% groundball rate. A 62% strand rate and 25% hr/f have combined to inflate his ERA. Michael Pineda is an extremely talented starter that we’re itching to get behind. A serious correction to the good is forthcoming and this is the perfect spot for that to occur.
Then there’s Eric Surkamp. Surkamp throws 87 MPH on his best day. In nine innings covering two starts, Surkamp has walked more batters (5) than he’s struck out (3). In his two starts, Surkamp has a 29%/31%/40% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. His swing and miss rate is 4% and his first-pitch strike rate is 48%. Overall in his career, covering just 66 frames, Surkamp has a 6.14/5.64 ERA/xERA split. Some guys do well in the minors but don’t have what it takes to make it at the highest level and that’s Eric Surkamp’s story. So, we have a 28-year-old pitcher who looked like a world-beater against Double-A competition but has looked hapless against major league hitters for four years and counting. Some good luck has disguised his lack of skill. That's a pitcher you want to avoid. Both the Giants and White Sox gave up on him and the A’s are next in line.
Bruce Marshall
Red Wings -123
This has the look of a series that might stay home-oriented as we proceed. The home sides have outscored the visitors 10-4 while winning the first three games, and the Red Wings bounced back smartly to get back into the series with Sunday's 2-0 win. Detroit gave Petr Mrazek the start in goal in game Three, and while he only had to stop 16 shots, was in commend in the shutout win as the Lightning's top line of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, and Alex Killorn did not even manage a shot on net after combining for 15 points in the first two games of the series.
Scott Delaney
My free play is out of the NHL, as I'm playing the Nashville Predators over the Anaheim Ducks tonight. Surprise, surprise, in what supposed to be the year of the Duck, has been a shocking revelation that the physical Predators are pretty damn good and will likely escape with a win.
The Preds return home after shocking a Ducks team that surged to the Pacific Division title by winning 29 of their final 41 games - including 14 of 19 on home ice. But it was the last two games that did damage, and now has the Ducks drowning.
Music City will be rocking tonight, and undoubtedly will see the Predators skating with plenty of vigor with a chance to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-7 series.
Nashville has gotten timely scoring and excellent goaltending from Pekka Rinne in a pair of 3-2 victories at Anaheim. I love the way Nashville has responded defensively to Anaheim's aggressive scheme, by keeping the Ducks' big guns in check.
Tonight the Preds go up and push the Ducks to the brink of elimination.
2* NASHVILLE
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Celtics plus the points to make it 2 covers in as many tries in their series against the Hawks.
Boston lost Game One, and also lost Avery Bradley as well, but they did manage to battle back from 19-points down in their one-point setback over the weekend.
I just get the feeling that this particular series is going to be decided nightly by no more than 4-points either way.
Brad Stevens has been able to design plays in and out of time-outs that time and time again result in open looks for the C's. Add plus 3 baskets or so from the oddsmakers to that equation, and the wisest course of action is to grab the points with the live-dog Celtics to keep it tight for a second straight game.
Play of Boston.
4* BOSTON
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Tuesday is the Angels over the White Sox.
Los Angeles has got to be happy to get away from that "buzz-saw" in Minnesota over the weekend, and they did respond last night with a convincing 7-0 series opening win over the White Sox.
Mat Latos has enjoyed the shift over to the A.L., as the former N.L. hurler is off to a 2-0 start with a low ERA of just 0.75! No chance he keeps up at this pace.
With last night's win, the Angels have now won 4 of the last 5 series meetings.
Chicago has cooled a little, losing 3 in a row now, and the Pale Hose have plated no more than 3 runs in any of their last 6 games.
Matt Shoemaker is coming off a win, and I expect him to build off that start and keep the the Chicago bats quiet for one more night.
Take the Halos.
1* L.A. ANGELS
Goodfella
Celtics/Hawks Over 99 1st Half
My numbers have this at 101 so value on the number being offered for me. The Celtics are without their best perimeter defender and one of the top perimeter defenders in the entire NBA in Avery Bradley. I look for both clubs to get out and run to try and get some easy baskets off of misses and turnovers. Barring piss poor shooting, I see this 1st half cashing in for us. Best of luck if you choose to play along with us.
Vegas Butcher
Seattle Marines +143
Miley has an ERA of 8.3 and Carrasco, a top-10 pitcher last year, is on the mound at home. At first glance you’d think that Carrasco at -150 is too low, but I don’t think that’s the case. Cleveland is horrible against lefties, ranking 3rd worst in 184 plate appearances this year. Plus Miley’s K-rate of 28% and SIERA of 2.6 are all better than Carrasco’s so far this young season. He’s pitching well, though the 42% strand-rate and 0.429 BABIP have a lot to do with the inflated ERA. Throw in a strong BP advantage, and Seattle is an excellent value play tonight.
St Louis Cardinals -120
Hammel’s 15% BB-rate is almost at the level of his mediocre 19% K-rate to start out the season. His 93% strand-rate and 0.250 BABIP have been the reason for the ERA of less than 1, but he’s not pitching well at all. His velocity is almost 2 MPH lower than last year and frankly he’s been fairly lucky so far. Opposite him is Garcia, who seems to be in amazing form: 34% K-rate; 2.4 SIERA. Cubs haven’t hit lefties well so far, and I believe STL has a strong advantage with their starting pitching in this one.
San Francisco Giants -120
Cain has 10:2 K:BB rate so far this year, while Ray is at 9:9 so far on the season. One has his ‘control’ while the other one has been pretty wild. Both teams used up their bullpens last night, but San Fran’s is in better shape than Arizona’s from the ‘fatigue’ perspective. I’ll back the better team with what I perceive to be better pitching at these generous odds at home.