Free Picks for Tuesday, April 25th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
THUNDER AT ROCKETS
PLAY: ROCKETS -7.5
This Oklahoma City-Houston series has been entertaining for the most part, and I suppose I don’t disagree with the stance that the two teams are not that far apart in terms of overall ability.
But I also believe the Rockets will be sending the Thunder back to Oklahoma City for the summer with a victory tonight.
The tough part tonight is forecasting which team covers the spread. It’s obviously not a cheap number, so Houston will have to win this fairly comfortably to get past the points. I suspect that’s what will happen eventually.
I’m not suggesting that Oklahoma City is mentally defeated as they probably feel they should be even at worst and perhaps even up 3-1 in this series. But that’s the problem. They’re not and while a 3-1 deficit isn’t insurmountable. the Thunder are now big dogs as far as the series price is concerned.
My guess is that if the Rockets get out of the gate quickly in this game, there’s a real possibility the Thunder lose focus and sort of mail it in late. That’s not a rip on the team, it’s just the way things often unfold for underdogs once it becomes clear their effort is going to fall short.
The flip side is that a good first half by the Thunder could very likely mean this one remains a dogfight right to the finish line. But the view from here is that Houston is going to flex its muscles tonight and end the series in the process. If that’s the case, I believe the stronger likelihood is that the Rockets pull away late to get both the win and cover.
Scott Spreitzer
A's vs. Angels
Play:A's +126
The teams split a four-game series to open the season but even after their 2-1 win over Toronto last night, the Angels have still lost 10 of their last 13 games. Oakland has won five of its last six and has Jesse Hahn on the mound tonight. Hahn has had quality starts in both of his outings this season and comes off a 9-1 win over Texas when he allowed a run and two hits in six innings. JC Ramirez has started two games and was not effective in either giving up eight runs and 10 hits in 10 1/3 innings and the Angels lost both games. The Athletics have won six of Hahn's last seven starts in division games and the Angels have lost eight of their last 10 versus right-handed starters.
Red Dog Sports
Port Vale vs. Walsall
Play: Walsall +130
This match takes place in England League Two on Tuesday afternoon. Port Vale is #17 out of the 20 teams in the league at 11-21-12 (-26 goal difference) and 0-5 in their last 5 matches being outscored 11-0. Walsall is #13 of the 20 (-3 goals) and off a 1-0 home win. I hope to see a 1-0 win for the home team.
Dustin Hawkins
Oakland vs. Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -129
Play Against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (Oakland) - off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season. (53-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%).LA Angels are 45-19 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. Bob Melvin is 15-30 against the money line after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs as the manager of Oakland.
Scott Spreitzer
Oakland vs. Los Angeles
Play: Oakland +126
The teams split a four-game series to open the season but even after their 2-1 win over Toronto last night, the Angels have still lost 10 of their last 13 games. Oakland has won five of its last six and has Jesse Hahn on the mound tonight. Hahn has had quality starts in both of his outings this season and comes off a 9-1 win over Texas when he allowed a run and two hits in six innings. JC Ramirez has started two games and was not effective in either giving up eight runs and 10 hits in 10 1/3 innings and the Angels lost both games. The Athletics have won six of Hahn's last seven starts in division games and the Angels have lost eight of their last 10 versus right-handed starters.
Rob Vinciletti
Houston vs. Cleveland
Play: Houston -119
The Astros are 10-1 vs right handers and they fit a solid 90% system that plays on road favorites off a road favored win vs a team off a loss scoring 2 or less runs as a -140 or higher road favorite like Cleveland. The Astros have Keuchel going and he has won 7 of his last 10 April road starts and has a 0.96 Era this year. He is 3-0 with a 1.55 era vs the Indians. Cleveland counters with Tomlin who has lost 3 of 4 Home April starts and is 1-4 as a home dog. He has an elevated 11.67 Era this year. Look for Houston to take this one.
Jim Feist
San Diego at Arizona
Pick: Under
San Diego has a bad offense, #27 in runs scored, #26 in batting average, #28 in on-base percentage. San Diego is 5-2 under the total on the road, 11-5 under away against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Starter Clayton Richard (3.04 ERA) has thrown well, with a 2.57 ERA on the road. Arizona has Patrick Corbin (3.27 ERA) going, with a 1.80 ERA at home. And the under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Kansas City at Chicago
Pick: Kansas City
Edges - Royals: Duffy 1.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP this season, and 1.02 WHIP this spring… White Sox: 5-16 last twenty-one games in this series. With Duffy in strong current form, and the Pale Hose 0-3 home in series openers this season, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Power Sports
Houston vs. Cleveland
Pick: Houston
It would appear to be a massive pitching mismatch Tuesday in Cleveland where Dallas Keuchel will be opposed by Josh Tomlin. Keuchel and the invading Astros arrive in Cleveland as the AL West leaders. In fact, one could probably dub this as a potential ALCS preview. But the Indians are currently only tied (w/ Detroit) atop the AL Central at 10-8. They missed out on a chance to sweep the White Sox Sunday while the Astros made it two out of three in Tampa Bay.
It is Keuchel that will be the difference maker in this one, however. Through four starts, he has a 0.96 ERA and 0.786 WHIP. The former Cy Young Award Winner has gone exactly seven innings in all four starts and allowed a total of three runs, two coming on solo home runs. Making it all the more impressive is that Keuchel has faced four different teams. His ground ball rate (70 percent) is the best in MLB. The Indians did not face him in 2016, so they are likely to struggle the first few times through the lineup.
In terms of numbers, Josh Tomlin is at the opposite end of the spectrum compared to Keuchel. He pitched much better his last time out, allowing just three runs in six innings vs. Minnesota, but his ERA and WHIP remain a horrific 11.67 and 1.945, respectively. In his only previous home start, Tomlin lasted all of 1 2/3 innings and gave up seven runs. Making matters worse for him is that the Astros have gone 10-1 vs. RH starters this season. They are also 6-2 on the road, averaging 6.1 rpg.
Mike Anthony
Memphis vs. San Antonio
Play: San Antonio -9.5
San Antonio is great with the way they pass the ball more than some teams do - they have great teamwork, they always have. And they don't get stuck standing around while Kawhi Leonard dribbles the ball - Leonard always makes things happen, on D or on offense. On the break, he stops and make the pass, and moving the ball on the break is essential for the Spurs victory Marc Gasol is not the most fundamentally sound defender on the team - he is vital thought, still, for Memphis and stopping teams from getting easy layups and put backs. Gasol has to start to defend the middle of the lane better - where LaMarcus Aldridge can make a living San Antonio bounces back with a big double digit win at home on Tuesday night!
Bryan Leonard
Atlanta at New York
Play: Atlanta +118
Like the road dog Braves here with the pitching edge of Teheran. We are getting the Atlanta #1 starter against New York's #5. The offenses are virtually even, and the relief and defenses are only a slight edge for the host. We have this game rated as a pick'em and yet we are getting a 20 cent edge.
Wunderdog
Kansas City @ Chicago
Pick: Chicago +112
Kansas City has the worst offense in baseball and plays its sixth straight road game. They aren't winning either, losing five in a row while getting outscored 26-6. Kansas City managed just two hits in the opener, losing 12-1 last night. The White Sox had 15 hits and went 7-for-12 with runners in scoring position. The Royals are a dismal 2-9 on the road and 22-45 away against a right-handed starter. Kansas City is also 6-20 when following a loss. Chicago is home for the fifth straight game and the team is 22-8 at home against a left-handed starter, so back the home dog and play the White Sox.
Scott Rickenbach
Jazz vs. Clippers
Play: Jazz +3½
It looks easy to take the home team minus the short number to bounce back off of a loss. Of course we all know what generally happens when something looks a little too easy. The fact is that nothing is easy and, in this particular case, I like the value with the points being offered as the Clippers certainly aren't the same team without Blake Griffin. The road team and home team have alternated wins and losses so far in this series and I look for that pattern to continue here. The Clippers are on a 2-5 ATS run the last 3 seasons when tied up in a playoff series and all the pressure is on them to win here at home and take this crucial Game 5. As has been evidenced in prior playoff series, the Clips don't often handle pressure very well. As for the Jazz, they are shooting the ball very well right now and also are off of their best game on the boards in Game 4. Certainly Griffin's absence in Game 4 helped sway the battle of the boards to be a little more in favor of the Jazz and I look for that trend to continue tonight. The Jazz are loose, confident, and healthier than the Clippers. That is the perfect recipe for a dangerous dog.
Jesse Schule
Thunder vs. Rockets
Play: Rockets -7½
The Rockets will have a chance to close out this first round series versus Oklahoma City, and I expect to see a blowout win for the home team. Here is what I said prior to Game 2: "James Harden played like an MVP in Game 1, scoring 37 points on 13-of-28 shooting, with nine assists and seven rebounds. Russell Westbrook really struggled, shooting just 6-of-23 from the field and 3-of-11 from beyond the arc. The Rockets crushed the Thunder on the boards, out-rebounding them 56-41. The final score was 118-87, and that shouldn't be much of a surprise considering the history between the two teams. The Rockets won three of four in the regular season series, and the last game at Houston (in the regular season) was a 137-125 win for the Rockets. Houston was one of the league's best home teams, while Oklahoma City had a losing record on the road. Oklahoma City has covered the spread just once in the last 11 meetings between the two teams, failing to cover in six of their last seven in Houston. Westbrook's "one man show" might play well for the fans during the regular season (in Oklahoma City), but it's not going to fly here in the playoffs."