Tony George
Royals vs. White Sox
Play: Royals -130
Kansas City got beat up on Monday as their road woes and hitting woes continue as they gave up 8 runs in the bottom of the 6th to the White Sox and got shelled 12-1, and that after they were swept at Texas 4-0 on a long weekend. Kansas City has had some good pitching so far this season, but absolutely no run support.
This game here they get a red hot Danny Duffy on the hill, who has shined brightly as a starter this season, 5th in the AL with a ERA of 1.32 and since hitting the starting rotation late last year he is 14-3 and has an ERA 3.24. He needs run support and with Kansas City facing a pitcher tonight as the WS send out Covey to the hill, in just his 3rd MLB start, who was lit up last week against the hit hitting Yankees, this scenario creates a situation where Kansas City should get Duffy some run support as well as a much needed win in what I feel should be a lower scoring game. Kansas City in MUST WIN mode here off an embarrassment last night, I think the starts line up for KC here and they get a win behind a very strong starter.
Info Plays
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -134
I have a few systems backing our pick. St. Louis is 752-472 (+92.5 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters since 1997. Toronto is 34-39 (-18.2 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 2 seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas City at Chicago
Play: Chicago +126
Chicago is showing some decent value here as a division home dog against the Royals. Kansas City will have their ace Danny Duffy on the mound, but he's due for a bad start and the White Sox have hit left-handed starters well so far this season, as they are averaging 6.3 runs/game and hitting .304 as a team. While this might seem like a huge mismatch on the mound with Chicago sending out Dylan Covey, the Royals offense is in quite a funk right now. KC has scored 2 or fewer runs in 8 straight games. Yesterday they only managed 2 hits against Chicago and are a mere 3-21 in their last 24 after a game where they had 2 or less hits. KC is also 3-16 in their last 19 road games revenging a loss where they scored 1 or fewer runs.
Jack Jones
Reds vs. Brewers
Play: Reds +105
The Cincinnati Reds have been one of the more underrated teams in baseball through the first month of the season. They are scoring 4.9 runs per game on the season, including 6.1 runs per game on the road where they are 5-2 on the year.
Scott Feldman has taken on the role of ace for the Reds and he has delivered in a big way. Feldman is 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in four starts this season. He has gone 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers.
Zach Davies is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today. He is 1-2 with an 8.24 ERA and 1.984 WHIP in four starts this season for the Brewers. Davies has gone 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA in six career starts against the Reds.
The Reds are 4-1 in their last five road games. The Brewers are 4-10 in their last 14 home games. Milwaukee is 1-6 in its last seven home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Sean Murphy
Grizzlies vs. Spurs
Play: Under 187
We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between the Spurs and Grizzlies in Game 4 of this series in Memphis, with the Grizz ultimately prevailing by a bucket in overtime. Of course, that game did go ‘over’ the posted total, but it’s not as if it was a track meet in regulation time, reaching just 192 points. Now, with a pivotal Game 5 on deck, I expect to see both teams tighten the screws defensively. Both Mike Conley and Kawhi Leonard faced little resistance on Sunday but that should change in this one. We’ve seen the oddsmakers make a slight downward shift to the total, and the move is warranted in my opinion. The spread looks to be a toss-up here. The Spurs should respond with a win, but can they do so by margin? We won’t worry about that, instead calling for a hard-fought, relatively low-scoring affair.
Larry Ness
Miami vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
The 10-8 Miami Marlins open a three-game series tonight in Philadelphia against the 9-9 Phillies. Miami comes in off back-to-back wins in San Diego over the Padres (Sat & Sun) to move two games over .500, while the Phillies just swept a three-game home series this past weekend over the Atlanta Braves to reach the .500 mark.
Tuesday's pitching matchup will feature Miami lefty Wei-Yin Chen (2-0, 3.94 ERA) up against Philly's Vince Velasquez (0-2, 7.20 ERA). Chen is in the second season of a five-year, $80 million deal. He's had two excellent outings so far in 2017, but in between, he was lit up by the Mets on April 13, allowing six ERs on seven hits in just three innings. His value to the team was underscored by him being removed from a potential no-hit bid in his last outing, after seven hit-less innings against the Mariners on April 18.
He's made four career appearances against the Phillies, going 1-2 with a 3.70 ERA (teams are 2-2).
Velasquez pitched well in his last outing before running into trouble late as he saw his scoreless outing go by the boards with a three-run HR by Jay Bruce in the sixth. He allowed just those three runs on five hits in six innings before avoiding a third straight loss after Philadelphia rallied to tie the score. Still, his 7.20 ERA and 1.67 WHIP are not good signs, early on. He's 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three career starts against the Marlins (team is 1-2).
The Miami Marlins come to town fresh off a six-game West Coast swing (3-3) but note that the Phillies just swept the Braves here at home and enter this series averaging 5.67 RPG in their home park. Chen's the better pitcher but I'm on the home team in this one.
Bruce Marshall
Thunder vs. Rockets
Play: Rockets -7½
Houston got what it needed at the Peake over the weekend when managing a split of Games 3 and 4, allowing the Rockets to sew things up tonight in Game 5. Which we expect Houston to do, as the Rockets have proven they have other options than James harden, while the Thunder does not have that sort of help for Russell Westbrook. Houston has won 6 of the last 7 this season vs. Ok City and ought to wrap things up tonight.
Rocketman
Toronto vs. St Louis
Play: St Louis -134
The Toronto Blue Jays travel to St Louis to take on the Cardinals on Tuesday night. Toronto is 5-14 SU overall this year while St Louis comes in with a 9-10 SU overall record on the season. Marco Estrada is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA on the road this year. Michael Wacha is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA overall this year and 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA at home this season. Estrada is 0-4 with a 5.52 ERA in his 8 career games against St Louis. Toronto is scoring only 3.4 runs per game overall this year, 3.9 runs per game on the road this season, 3.1 runs per game against right handed starters, 3.6 runs per game at night and 1.5 runs per game in inter-league play this season. St Louis is allowing only 3.1 runs per game at home this year and 2.6 runs per game their past 7 games overall where they are 6-1 SU. Toronto is 6-21 last 3 years as a road underdog of +125 to +175. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!
John Martin
Memphis at San Antonio
Play: Memphis +10
The San Antonio Spurs simply rely too much on one player these days. Kawhi Leonard is a beast, but even his 43 points couldn't save them in Game 4. The Grizzlies have fought back to even this series at 2-2 and now have all the momentum. I think the value is right to pull the trigger on them as 10-point road dogs in Game 5. I realize that the Spurs won the first two games at home by double-digits, but they only won by 7 and 6 in their two regular season meetings in San Antonio. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on 2 days rest. The Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Brandon Lee
Mariners/Tigers Over 8.5
Both of these teams come into this game off an offensive explosion last time out. Seattle scored 11 runs in their finale at Oakland on Sunday and Detroit put 14 on the board in their win at Minnesota on Sunday. I think we see both offenses keep it going here. The Mariners give the ball to Felix Hernandez, who has not been himself early. Hernandez has allowed 33 hits (5 HRs) in just under 25 innings of work and has a 4.09 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in 2 road starts. Tigers counter with Jordan Zimmermann, who has a 5.94 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 3 starts. In just his last two outings, he has allowed 10 runs on 14 hits and 6 walks in a mere 10 2/3 innings. OVER is 20-9 in the Mariners last 29 games when off an upset win as a dog against a division rival. OVER is also 7-1-1 in Zimmermann's last 9 home starts and 9-1-1 in the Tigers last 11 home games against a right-handed starter.
Ray Monohan
Kansas City / Chicago Under 8
Two struggling offenses meet on Tuesday night and the Under here has value.Chicago managed just 5 runs this weekend against the Indians, as their lineup just hasn't been able to string together hits.
On the Royals side of things, it's been very similar. Kansas City hasn't been able to get that big hit, but has managed to stay in games thanks to their starting pitching, especially Tuesday starter Danny Duffy. Some trends to note. Under is 10-1 in Royals last 11 overall and is 16-5-3 in Royals last 24 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 5-1-1 in White Sox last 7 home games.
Mike Menase
Mariners vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers +123
I really like the value here with Detroit. Seattle, led by 'King' Felix, opened up at +100 but public money immediately bet them up to the role of large favorites. I think that the public is being misguided by the hype surrounding Felix Hernandez.
One should immediately become suspicious upon seeing Seattle as a road favorite. The Mariners really struggle away from home, where they are just 2-9 on the season. But I also don't like the match-up for them today.
One may think that the Mariners have overcome their road struggles, because they just destroyed a Triggs-led Oakland 11-1. First of all, Triggs had had tremendous downside coming into that game with a very low babip. Second of all, Triggs is absolutely a finesse pitcher, whose pitches arrive at the plate at well-below average velocity. Mariners batters are at their best against pitchers who rely primarily on finesse, producing a .778 ops against them.
The Mariners struggle, both home and away, against pitchers who rely on power and velocity, producing a mere .537 ops against them. Zimmermann is just such a pitcher, particularly because of the very hard slider that he throws, which averages 13 mph faster than Triggs' slider. Last season he grew very comfortable with this slider, throwing it at a career-high 31% ratio. Throughout the years, he has relied more on his power, as his slider and curve have been increasing in velocity throughout his career. Zimmermann possesses the power to disturb Seattle batters, who, even after dismantling Triggs, are still only managing a .624 ops on the road compared to .795 at home. Zimmermann has some upside coming into this match-up, with a babip of .21 higher than his career average. I expect sparse production today from a Seattle lineup that matches up poorly with him today and should experience a letdown in production.
Seattle is already 0-2 in Hernandez' first two road starts. I don't expect Hernandez to get his first road win against a lineup that he matches up poorly with. Even without Miguel Cabrera. Hernandez is not the power pitcher that he used to be at a much younger age. His pitches are losing velocity and he is relying less on his most power-heavy pitches. His loss of power should prove significant today, as against pitchers like Hernandez with a balance (because they are unable to rely primarily on either) of power and finesse the Tigers are at their best, producing a .787 ops. Hernandez is also very much a ground ball pitcher, inducing ground balls consistently at a well above-average rate. The Tigers are at their best against ground ball pitchers, hitting them with a .776 ops so far. Cabrera's loss won't be decisive today, as he is just 0/5 so far against ground ball pitchers. Hernandez had normally been a strong April pitcher, but his ERA is just 3.65 and his FIP just 4.30 so far. His high FIP indicates that his decrease in performance is not a mere matter of bad luck. The Tigers had been struggling in their last road stand until they won their last two and I look for them to carry this momentum against a pitcher that they match up well with.
We have starting pitchers, bullpens, and lineups who, overall, are producing about equally. But the match-up and location speak decisively in Detroit's favor, and we're getting Detroit at an underdog price.
Andrew Gold
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -106
This is an interesting game as I believe most will side with the Marlins here. Chen is off to a good start there is no doubt about it. I just don't believe in him to keep it up because he is not a dominant pitcher. Also take into consideration his 3 games came against the Mets twice who are back to the same ole Mets and the Mariners. Neither are very good.
Phillies have won 4 in a row and 5 of 6. They have been hitting machines lately averaging double digit hits during this spell. The reason for the low line is because Velasquez is off to a slow start, but he simply has to much talent for it to keep going on.
Dave Price
Atlanta at New York
Play: Atlanta +118
I like the price we are getting with the Atlanta Braves today as underdogs considering they have a massive advantage on the mound tonight. Ace Julio Teheran is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA in 4 starts this year, including 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 road starts, pitching 13 shutout innings away from home. Robert Gsellman is 0-1 with a 7.56 ERA in 3 starts this season for the Mets. Teheran is 7-3 with a 1.89 ERA in 15 lifetime starts vs. New York, while Gsellman is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta. The Braves are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings in New York.
Black Widow
Rays vs. Orioles
Play: Rays +147
Bets against home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (Baltimore) with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, with a team on base percentage of .310 or worse on the season are 77-50 (60.6%, +52.2 units) over the last five seasons. The Orioles are clearly overvalued right now due to their 13-5 start. Asking them to lay this kind of price against the Rays is asking too much tonight.