Mark Franco
Twins/Rangers Under 9
Santana permitted one run on four hits - his highest hit total allowed in his four starts - last time out versus Cleveland, continuing his string of stellar early-season performances. He went the distance in his previous turn, tossing a one-hit shutout against the White Sox after blanking Chicago over six innings six days earlier.
Cashner remains in search of his first victory in the AL and could use some run support from the Rangers, who have scored once in his first two starts. The 30-year-old Texan is coming off a strong outing in a 1-0 victory over Kansas City, permitting three hits and four walks over six scoreless innings.
Under is 8-1 in Twins last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 7-0 in Santanas last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Under is 6-1 in Rangers last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Teddy Davis
Reds vs. Brewers
Play: Reds +105
The wrong team is favored here tonight in this situation.
The Reds will send out their ace in Feldman who has a 2.38 ERA on the season and 0.00 on the road. There is no doubt the Reds have cooled off a little bit from the beginning of the season, but I see them bouncing against a division rival. The Brewers have only won 2 of their last 7 so they aren't exactly lighting it up either.
Brewers counter with Davies who has yet to find anything this season. He has 10 walks to just 16 strikeouts which is terrible. His ERA is 8.24 while his home ERA is even worse over 9.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Yankees +104 over BOSTON
Rick Porcello (RHP) is Exhibit A on how pitchers are at whims of randomness, as his xERA has been flat for three years now. Porcello took pinpoint control to a new level last year with first-pitch strike rate support. That's the good news. The bad news is that his groundballs continued to turn into fly-balls and his swing and miss rate suggests his middling K-rate is here to stay. If you bet on Porcello, you are paying for a repeat of last year and that is not going to happen. Rick Porcello is nothing more than a reliable mid-rotation starter that is priced like an ace.
Few pitchers have been better than Luis Severino (RHP) in the early going. Severino has a BB/K split of 2/27 in 20 innings. That’s elite control with an elite strikeout rate. He has an elite batted ball profile of 50% groundballs, 17% line-drives and 33% fly-balls. His groundball rate in his last start was 65%. Severino’s 4.05 ERA is the result of bad luck. He comes in with a 2.22 xERA and a 0.80 WHIP and if he and the Yanks lose here so be it. However, when Severino, the Yankees and that #1 ranked bullpen is taking back a tag, it must be played and that applies here.
Seattle -1½ +126 over DETROIT
Felix Hernandez (RHP) may or may not do well here but one thing we know for sure is that King Felix can hang around for a few innings and has the ability to pitch a great game. That said, this has nothing to do with backing Hernandez.
We made the mistake of coming off the Mariners on Sunday after backing them and losing the first two games of that series but we’re not going to make that mistake again. The Mariners are an undervalued, offensive force that exploded on Sunday and we’ll rely on those bats to keep it going here against Jordan Zimmermann (RHP). Zimmermann has been a fade target of ours for a couple of years now but this year he’s not going to be overvalued much longer. Hell, he might not even be starting much longer because he has very little skills left. Zimmermann comes into this start with a 5.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He was a BB/K split of 7/10 through 17 frames and his xERA of 5.79 gives zero hope for a rebound. Even more concerning in his 20%/26%/54% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split that suggests the Mariners are going to be feasting here. Lastly, the Tigers bullpen is the worst in the majors right now with a 5.46 ERA and they’ll likely be asked to work at least four innings or more here.
COLORADO -1½ +195 over Washington
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:
Year to date:
4-4 +5.98 units
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington to win East +165
The Capitals are in the -135 to -140 range to beat Pittsburgh in the second round but instead of spotting a price, we’ll take the Caps to advance to the next round, where they will be a much bigger favorite over New York or Ottawa, especially if they dispose of the Penguins quickly and then we’ll have Washington +165 in that series. At that point, we can always buy back the next opponent and free roll on the Caps, which is our plan for now. Therefore, this is a bet on Washington to defeat Pittsburgh to set up a free-roll for the East Finals.
What you are going to read or hear about over and over is Pittsburgh’s utter dominance against Washington over the last decade. Using that useless information to make a selection in this series is an exercise in futility. Of course the Penguins can win this series but if they do, it’s not because they beat Washington nine years ago.
Another thing you are going to read or hear about is the Capitals difficulty in disposing of the Maple Leafs. Well, let us turn that around. Toronto might have beaten almost any other team in the first round. They were loose, they’re extremely talented and they got outstanding goaltending from Fredrick Andersen for most of the series. The Capitals had to deal with speed, talent and an abundance of pressure to get by the first round. They answered the call in all areas and they also did not allow the Maple Leafs to sustain pressure in their end. For the most part, Toronto was one and done on far too many occasions. That first round prepped the Capitals well for what is in store for them here. The focus on the first round was how well the Maple Leafs played but let’s give some credit to the Capitals, as they were tremendous and also stepped up in the OT periods when they had to. Combine Washington’s difficulty with Toronto with Pittsburgh easily defeating the Jackets in five games and the market perception on this series is off.
Indeed the Pens defeated Columbus in five games but Pittsburgh was the second best team on the ice in all five games. We’re not going to bore you with all the stats but Columbus out-chanced, outshot, outworked and out-everythinged the Penguins in the first round and most of it was by a wide margin. The only reason that the Penguins aren’t watching round two from the rail is because Sergei Bobrovsky was atrocious. Had the Jackets switched to Joonas Korpisalo in Game 2, Pittsburgh would be golfing right now.
We often suggest not putting a lot of emphasis on one series or one game but it’s more than that. You see, the last repeat winners of the Cup were the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998, almost 20 years ago. That shows how difficult it is to repeat because playing well into June will burn out any team. Hockey is a physical, grueling game and to not have a significant break and then perform brilliantly in back-to-back playoff years is near impossible. We all saw the Sharks (last year’s other Stanley Cup finalist) bow out early this year and Pittsburgh should have been right behind them. The Penguins will not run into weak goaltending this series. Furthermore, the Penguins have to rely on Marc Andre Fleury and he’s always just a bad goal away from melting down entirely.
In the 2016 playoffs, Kris Letang exceeded 30 minutes of ice time in four of five games against the Capitals, including more than 35 minutes of regulation in Game 2. There will be no Kris Letang this year and that puts the Penguins at a disadvantage right off the bat. If anyone watched the Penguins trying to break out of their own end against the Jackets in the first round, it was painful. They were a mess and if they don’t or can’t clean that up, this series might be over quickly. The Pens might also be missing Carl Hagelin and Chris Kunitz for a game or longer and those role players are a big part of Pittsburgh’s success.
One can never count the Penguins out but the Capitals are hungrier and they’re better than Pittsburgh when the Pens don’t have Letang and are forced to use their backup goaltender. There is also the unlikely task of repeating that means so much more than Pittsburgh’s playoff domination over Washington. Teams’ still need a healthy dose of speed, skill and finesse to win at this time of year, but physicality becomes a big part of winning too. That is especially so on the forecheck, where a forward can disrupt a breakout with a big hit and cause a turnover. A disruptive hit early in a game can cause defensive indecision later and those turnovers and scoring chances keep coming. That’s what Columbus did to Pittsburgh and that’s what is likely to go down in this series too. The domination ends here.
We are going to make this a 3-unit bet with the intention of buying back one unit on the underdog in the next series should Washington get by Pittsburgh. That will set up a near free roll for 2 units at +165 in the East Finals.
Zack Cimini
Oklahoma City vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
This series could be in OKC's favor of 3-1 if not for issues in the fourth quarter. We've seen scenarios where teams can get back into a series by winning game five away and game six at home. Yet, I believe tonight we'll finally see a worn down Russ Westbrook from the start of game five. Rockets Coach, Mike D'Antoni's, series plan has worked to perfection and this is the game where OKC will be exploited from start to finish.
Buster Sports
Jazz vs. Clippers
Play: Under 196
Going with the Under tonight as we see this being a defensive battle right from the opening tip. These clubs both can play D and now that this series has become the best 2 out of 3, that side of the ball will be very important to the outcome of this series. The Clippers are without Blake Griffin and Gordon Hayward will give it a go tonight but anyone that has battled food poisoning knows he will not even be close to a 100% . Rudy Gobert is back in the Jazz lineup and his presence makes it tough for the Clippers offense. The last two games of this series went well OVER today's posted total and the oddsmaker has kept the total at 196 for tonight's game. Those games were in Utah. The two games in LA went Under today's total and with so much on the line tonight this game will be UNDER as well.
Cal Sports
Minnesota vs. Texas
Play: Under 9.5
No one has pitched better than Ervin Santana as he has an ERA of 0.64 and a WHIP of 0.607. Andrew Cashner takes the hill for Texas and he is making only his third start of the year allowing 4 runs ( # earned) in 5.3 innings in his debut but then pitched 6 shutout innings ( 3 hits) last Thursday. The Rangers offense scored just 19 runs their last 7 games and more importantly only had 41 hits. The Twins bats are also struggling scoring 25 runs their last 8 games while batting only .213 on the road.
Oskeim Sports
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -105
Philadelphia flame-thrower Vince Velasquez continues to compile strikeouts in his second season with the Phillies, posting an 11.40 K/9 rate in his first three starts.
The 24-year-old is also inducing a career-best number of ground balls (46.2% GB%) and has enjoyed success against the Marlins. Specifically, Velasquez is 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three career starts against Miami, allowing just one earned run on six hits in his last two outings (12 IP).
Miami southpaw Wei-Yin Chen is 1-2 with a career 3.70 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in four starts against the Phillies, but he has yielded a combined 11 runs (10 earned) on 28 hits in his two most recent outings versus the Phillies.
Let's also note that Chen has been pitching through a partial tear in the UCL of his left elbow since the end of 2016 and has been receiving special treatment after each start. The 31-year-old's strikeouts are declining (7.30 K/9 in 2016 compared to 5.63 K/9 this season) and he continues to yield too many fly balls (and home runs).
A 4.73 xFIP and 4.49 SIERA instill little confidence in Chen's future prospects, especially tonight in Philadelphia's home park that resembles a sandbox.
With Philadelphia taking the field on a four-game winning streak, take the Phillies at home and invest with confidence.
Drew Martin
Chicago at Pittsburgh
Play: Over 7.5
After a slow start to the season, the Chicago Cubs are the hottest hitting team in MLB. The offense has pounded out 53 runs and hit 12 home runs over its last six games. The opposing starters during that span however were all below average. The Cubs will see a more premium arm tonight in Gerrit Cole who two weeks ago tossed 6 innings and allowed only two runs against this lineup. The Cubs though made Cole work as he threw 114 pitches (19 per inning) and given their current form with the quick second look, I project they’ll be more productive at the plate this time around. Chicago’s Kyle Hendricks was pitted against Cole in that start and labored through five innings. Hendricks allowed three runs in five innings with only three strikeouts and two walks. Even more alarming is that was arguably his best outing of the season as lack of command and significantly diminished velocity have resulted in seven walks and four home runs in three starts. The previous matchup ended in a 4-2 Pittsburgh win with both bullpens combining for a near-flawless 7 innings and 1 earned run. Expecting more offense tonight with mild temps and two hittable starting pitchers.
Harry Bondi
MEMPHIS +10.5 over San Antonio
Memphis has covered 6 of their last 8 games with San Antonio and, after winning the last two at home, have the confidence that they can beat the Spurs. Kwami Leonard is playing as well as anybody this postseason but his supporting cast is showing its age. The number is just too big here take the Grizzlies plus the double digits.
Ben Burns
Dodgers -225
Blach actually beat Kershaw in a game here late last season. He hasn't started a game since then, however. Kershaw, off b2b gems, hasn't forgotten. Kershaw, 18-8 with a 1.58 ERA vs. the Giants, already has a dominant 0.741 WHIP through four starts, striking out 32 against just two walks. Expect him to get the better of Blach this time, LA finishing on top.
Brad Wilton
Here comes the blowout!
Houston was able to grab a game in Oklahoma City, and tonight they can end their first round series against the Thunder with a win in front of the home crowd.
The last 3 games in this series have been a lot tighter than the opening contest that saw Houston rout OKC, 118-87, but after watching Russell Westbrook's tirade after Sunday's loss, I am convinced that we will see a carbon copy of that Game One romp.
The Thunder is just 2-6 against the spread the last 8 meetings in Houston, and only 3-13 against the spread overall the past 16 series meetings.
Houston finishes this series off with an exclamation point!
4* HOUSTON
Jack Brayman
Round 1 to the Colorado Rockies.
In a battle for the best record in the National League, the Washington Nationals and Colorado continue their series in Denver, after the Rockies got it done in the series lid-lifter.
I'm taking the small underdog with the Rockies in Game 2.
Colorado has won four in a row after a three-game home sweep of the San Francisco Giants, and has also won seven of its past eight games.
The Nationals saw their seven-game win streak come to an end last night. And I know the Nationals are still a formidable 7-3 on the road, but this is a tired baseball team that will be playing its eighth game in as many nights. Personally, I think the Nats are going to be too tired once again, after wrapping up a three-game set on the east coast and then no rest for last night's opener.
They're catching a Rockies team that outscored the Giants 26-8 in their series sweep, and then 8-4 in last night's series opener. Look for the Rockies to take advantage of the weary Nationals again.
4* ROCKIES
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Monday night is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Toronto Blue Jays in Interleague action.
The Redbirds may be frustrated with their terrible play that has hindered the start of their campaign, but this visit from the Jays might be at the right time.
While St. Louis comes in on a three-game win streak, the Jays arrive with a 5-14 record after a 2-1 road loss to the Angels on Monday night in Anaheim.
The Blue Jays own the worst record in baseball, and continue a tiring road trip that will have them feeling exhausted and out of sorts.
Take the home team in this one.
3* CARDINALS
Tony Karpinski
Clippers -3
LA plays best when Chris Paul is attacking the rim, and that's very hard to stop. Paul has been putting up 27/game and it isn't going to stop. LA needs to keep on playing until the end keeping their very skilled bigs involved.
The Jazz have lost their identity and the biggest obvious challenge they have is scoring. Only putting up around 98-100 ppg since the series began. Joe Ingles has proven to be a bit unadapt at making difficult shots and far too often Gordon Hayward's teammates are standing around watching him play his heart out - instead of making plays and working off him.
L.A. Clippers win by 7 by points or more on their home floor tonight!