DAVE COKIN
BALTIMORE AT TAMPA BAY
PLAY: BALTIMORE +115
Tampa Bay continues to have its share of trouble plating runs, but the two they managed to get across on Monday night proved to be enough as they blanked the Orioles. Tonight, it’s the latest version of the always entertaining Ubaldo Jimenez Experience as the Baltimore righty challenges Jake Odorizzi.
Let’s cover the clear cut advantages right off the bat. The Orioles haven’t been crushing it lately, but there’s no question the Birds own the offensive edge against the Rays. Tampa Bay has managed to score more than three runs only five times to date. That’s one check for Baltimore, and the O’s get another one with the bullpen. If you’re into trends, I’ll have to point out that the Orioles were not good off a shutout loss last season, while the Rays did well coming off a shutout win. But I still like the team data wins on the visiting team’s side tonight.
The pitching matchup is pretty interesting, as Jimenez is not the easiest guy on the planet to handicap, thanks to his erratic tendencies. That’s something one has to simply accept as a great unknown in virtually every start he makes. Meanwhile, Odorizzi has been tough at the Trop for the most part. So on the surface, it probably seems like advantage Odorizzi.
But I’ll try to break down the early 2016 form to make my case for Ubaldo. The data is fairly close on a number of counts. What I call my true ERA is based on a compilation of a number of analytics, and I have Jimenez about a quarter run better than Odorizzi through the first few starts of this season. Both guys have had some BABIP bad luck, although in the case of Jimenez, that .386 is begging for some correction.
Another stat I like to look at is hard hit rate on batted balls, and here’s where there’s a red flag on Odorizzi. He’s at 39.7% thus far, and that could be a problem against the power-laden Orioles this evening.
The big concern with Jimenez is always the walks. He’s going to issue some free passes, that’s a given. The key will be whether he spreads them out, in which case he should be fine, or clusters them, in which case I’ll be in trouble.
Adding everything up, this is a game where I ended up with the Orioles as slight favorites. So as usual, if I can get my favorite, even a minimal one, at an underdog price, I’m generally going to end up making the play. Truth is, this is mostly a 50/50 proposition over the long haul. But as the plays using the guidelines are all dogs, 50% is a figure that will yield substantial long term profits on the money line. I’ll hope the good Ubaldo shows up tonight and if he does, I’ll have a strong chance to knock down a winner with the Orioles.
Sleepyj
Celtics +7
I'm def on the C's here..+7 all day IMO...I could careless that this series is back in ATL now..This is a tied series and Boston will look to steal this game and head home with a lead...I give Credit to ATL for playing tough, but Boston IMO is just as good...Sitting on a key # of 7 has me all in on the C's.
Pacers +7
Same goes for this game...I can see both road teams stepping up to get a big road win...Pacers have surprised most, but when you have a Paul George on your team, you always have a shot in any game...Again +7 has me all in on the Pacers...At worst we split, but I like our chances of going 2-0 with the dogs at +7 for each...I'd go with -4.5 for both games..Not a 7 line..Value for us.
Ben Burns
Pirates vs. Rockies
Play: Pirates -132
He tossed six shutout innings, fanning seven without walking a batter. Remember, this guy went 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA last season and he's 41-22 for his career. De La Rosa didn't fare nearly as well in his last start, giving up four runs in two innings. He now has an ugly 9.87 ERA and 1.96 WHIP through three starts. It doesn't help matters that he's now dealing with the stomach flu, which caused him to miss Monday's start and go Tuesday instead. With Cole, who now has a 2.70 ERA on the season, back in top form, consider the visiting Pirates on Tuesday.
Rob Vinciletti
White Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: White Sox -117
Chicago fits a powerful 80% database system that pertains to last nights high scoring road dog win. Chicago is now 10-4 on the road and has won 4 of 5 as a road favorite in this range. They have ace C. Sale going on an extra days rest and he has a 2.35 Era vs the Jays and is 4-0 with a 1.69 era this season. Dickey goes for Toronto and he has an elevated 6.10 era and a 7.50 Era vs Chicago. Toronto has lost 8 of 12 at night and will struggle with Sale here tonight.
Stephen Nover
Cleveland at Minnesota
Play: Cleveland +107
Whenever I see the Twins open as a favorite my first look always is to the underdog. Fading the Twins today should be worth the investment.
The pitching matchup is a pair of right-handers, Cody Anderson of the Indians versus journeyman Ricky Nolasco. Cleveland has won the last four times it has faced a righty starter, while the Twins are 6-14 in their last 20 games versus a right-hander.
Anderson showed promise as a rookie last season going 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA in 15 starts. But he hasn't pitched well in his first 14 1/3 innings this season. Anderson is better than his 7.53 ERA and Nolasco is much worse than his 2.66 ERA.
Anderson was 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA in his last two starts against Minnesota in 2015. The Indians should be pumped more than normal for this game with Michael Brantley starting for the first time this season after more than five months of rehab following right shoulder surgery. Manager Terry Francona calls the talented Brantley the heart and soul of the Indians.
The 33-year-old Nolasco was one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors last season finishing the year 11-14, with a 5.64 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Opponents batted .317 against him. Nolasco may be throwing his slider more this year, but he's still who he is. He's due for a huge regression.
The Twins also have serious fatigue issues in their bullpen. Minnesota relievers have worked 15 2/3 innings during the last two days. The Twins remain without their injured closer, Glen Perkins.
Scott Spreitzer
Pirates vs. Rockies
Play: Pirates -132
There was once a time when you simply did not go against Jorge De La Rosa at Coors Field. In fact, it went beyond that. You not only refrained from going against him, but playing on the lefty at home was a virtual automatic. Things changed last year, however. De La Rosa started 12 home games and finished with a hefty 5.40 ERA & 1.56 WHIP, while walking nearly 5 hitters per 9 IP. He had posted a 1.24 WHIP in his previous two seasons at Coors, while walking less than 2.9 batters per 9 IP in each season. De La Rosa is off to a rough start in 2016 and now he's fighting a stomach flu on top of it. The Bucs will counter with Gerritt Cole, who has been sizzling in his last three games. Cole owns a 2.70 ERA & 1.02 WHIP in those starts, along with a .220 BAA. He's allowed zero HRs in his last 16 2/3 IP. Offensively, the Pirates are 8th in team batting average against southpaws, while also ranked 3rd in OBP and 5th in OPS. Their offensive numbers are even better in all road action in 2016, including a top ranking in OBP, while ranked 6th in OPS, and 2nd in road team batting average. While the Pirates' pen hasn't been spectacular, they're certainly performing better than Colorado's at the present time. We expect Cole to receive more than enough run support and for the Bucs to land in the win column.
Marc Lawrence
Orioles vs. Rays
Play: Rays -121
Edges - Rays: Jake Odorizzi 3-0 home career team starts in this series. Orioles: Ubaldo Jimenez 5-0 last five away team starts during April, and 7-13 last twenty overall away team starts. With Odorizzi in strong current LW form with 13 K’s and 2 W’s, we recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay.
Matt Josephs
Phillies vs. Nationals
Play: Under 7
Max Scherzer gets his second look at the Phillies over a 10 day span. Scherzer held down Philly at their place giving up one run and five hits over seven innings. With the win, he moved to 5-1 with a 1.53 ERA and a WHIP of 0.809 in six starts against the NL East rival. The Phillies are hitting .225 in night games and .226 in nine games against the rest of the division. Scherzer is backed by a Washington bullpen that is 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA and a WHIP of 0.964. Vincent Velasquez had a rough outing last time out against the Mets although it was his second time seeing them over a 10 day span. Only Stephen Drew has seen the righty and he's 0-for-3 with a strikeout. Velasquez has 29 K's to just three walks over 19.3 innings. Washington is hitting .231 in their last seven games with five of them going under the total. These two pitchers should be able to hold down the other offense.
Martin Griffiths
Walsall vs. Shrewsbury Town
Play: Walsall PK½ -141
Huge game for Walsall as they push for an automatic promotion to the English Championship.
A win for Walsall will see them go within two points of second place Burton Albion with just two games left to play and that all important second automatic promotion place, a loss and they will almost certainly be left in the play off positions, not something they really want.
They host Shrewsbury Town who are four points above the relegation places, a win for them would make them safe for the this season, though even if they do lose they would probably still be safe come the end of the season, four points advantage with two games to play is significant.
But, it does show the difference in the teams, one is going for promotion, one is fighting to avoid relegation and to make this even more lopsided, it is the home team that are going for promotion.
That said, Walsall lost on Saturday 4-0 away to Bradford and have dropped five points in their last two games, which has seen them drop out of the automatic promotion spots, while at the same time Shrewsbury won away at Gillingham, who themselves are fighting to get into a play off spots.
But for me that was just one of those days for both sides, Walsall really should bounce back in front of their home fans and it really is asking a lot for Shrewsbury to beat two promotion teams away from home in consecutive games.
All things considered I am backing Walsall to get back to winning ways and cover the spread.
Brandon Shively
St. Louis vs. Arizona
Pick: St. Louis
Arizona’s Shelby Miller has been a disappointment this season. He has gotten shelled for 10 runs (15 hits) in two home starts. He walked five batters in his most recent start against the Giants before getting pulled. Miller has a 1.98 WHIP in four starts now. The Diamondbacks bullpen is the 2nd worst in the Majors at home with a 6.22 ERA. I don’t expect for Miller to go deep in this one and can only expect the lousy bullpen to get put in to give up more runs.
Before last night’s game, the Cardinals had owned the Diamondbacks. It wasn’t that they played bad. Garcia got in trouble in one inning and Arizona scored 9 runs in the 6th inning. Take that inning away, and the game was dominated by Saint Louis. My point being that the Cardinals should have won that game in my opinion and they should also win this game.
Carlos Martinez takes the mound for the Cards. He is their best starter in my opinion. They have won ALL three of his starts this season as he has a 1.00 WHIP and has gotten an average of 10.3 runs of support. The roof is open tonight at Chase Field and that bodes well for the Cardinals as they have one of the best lineups in the National League to start 2016.
Martinez made two starts against Arizona last year and the Cardinals won both games.
Arizona has not won consecutive home games this season. Saint Louis has won 69% of the last 52 meetings. The law of averages is on our side here as well calling for a win coming off the loss.
Power Sports
Cincinnati vs. New York
Pick: New York
I'm well aware that the Mets took the series opener Monday because I was on them. Because of the fact they won't have one of their "name" pitchers on the mound Tuesday, they are available at an even more affordable price and I'm going to recommend them in this spot. The Reds are no less horrible than they were yesterday.
Bartolo Colon is by no means a bad fifth option in the Mets' starting rotation. Even though the club has lost two of his three starts so far in 2016 (both to Philadelphia!), he hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of them. Last time out, Colon allowed just four hits in six innings of work. His WHIP is a more than respectable 1.096 to this point and he's won four of his five career starts vs. Cincinnati. The Mets have now beaten the Reds nine straight times dating back to last season and are 12-2 the L3 seasons against them.
With yday's loss, the Reds now have a YTD run differential of -42, a league worst. So they should feel pretty fortunate to even be 9-11 at this point. Turning to Brandon Finnegan tonight might not sound that bad when you consider he's allowed four hits or less in three of his four starts so far. But then came the last one, where he allowed five runs and seven hits in 4 IP and the team lost 16-0. That was Jake Arrieta's no-hitter for the Cubs. Going into yday, the Reds (whose bullpen is poised to be atrocious this year) had been giving up an average of 8.0 rpg.
Jim Feist
Oakland at Detroit
Pick: Over
The Tigers took game one of this series on Monday, 7-3. The A's have now lost three straight games, allowing 22 runs. Rich Hill will try and turn the A's fortunes around tonight. Hill is 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Hill has had some control issues of late, allowing seven walks over his last 10 1/3 innings. Detroit got back to the .500 mark with their win. Tigers pitching has not been good, ranking 17th in WHIP (1.46), 27th in opponent batting average (.278) and 17th in ERA (4.05). Mike Pelfrey is still looking for his first win this season. Pelfrey is 0-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 2.18 WHIP. Pelfrey has 12 walks this year and just eight KO's. Neither club playing up to expectations and that goes for their respective starters too. These clubs are now 19-5-3 Over/Under the last 27 meetings in Detroit. I liked game one OVER and I'm not changing my mind tonight.
Larry Ness
Chicago vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
It's NOT often one gets to take Toronto at home as an underdog...
Chris Sale (4-0, 1.80 ERA) has won his first four starts for the first time in his career but he hasn't exactly faced any high-scoring lineups. His wins have come over Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and the LA Angels, all teams that have thus far struggled at the plate. That changes tonight against a Toronto team that's scored 25 times in splitting its last four games following Chicago's come-from-behind 7-5 victory Monday (Blue Jays are averaging 5.20 RPG in 2016).
Sale is looking to win his first five decisions for the second time after going 5-0 with a 1.59 ERA in seven starts to open the 2014 season and he'll be backed by a White Sox bullpen leading the majors with a 1.41 ERA. However, Sale has given his bullpen plenty of rest by going at least seven innings in each start. "I think it's important, individually and as a team, to try to get off on the right foot," Sale said after beating the Angels 2-1 on Wednesday. "To start out with some momentum, that's important."
Toronto sends R.A. Dickey (1-2, 6.10 ERA) to the hill. He finally made it past five innings in his last outing, as after allowing three runs in the first inning, he held the Orioles to zero runs the next five innings last Wednesday (the Blue Jays would lose 4-3 in 10 innings on a passed ball). Dickey is 0-3 with a 7.43 ERA in his last four starts against Chicago and 2-4 with a 7.50 ERA over six career starts vs the White Sox (teams are 2-4).
The Blue Jays were not able to hold a 5-1 lead on Monday and while Sale has been terrific so far and Dickey has yet to find a groove, it's NOT often one gets to take Toronto at home as an underdog. My "gut" says Toronto in this one and that's the bet.
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Under in the Pacers-Raptors game.
You know as well as I that eventually the Pacers and the Raptors are going to play a game that lands Over the total, but right now you have to stick with the prolonged Under trend and side with another Under in this opening round playoff series.
All 4 games contested in this series have held Under the total, and the Under is now 6-1 the last 7 times these teams have faced one another!
Indiana has now played 6 games in a row Under the total, while Toronto is on a 5 game Under clip, and has held Low in 8 of their last 10 games overall.
Like I said, the law of averages says that eventually these teams will land Over, but it's real hard right now to build a case for that Over being tonight.
Stick with the glaring Under trend.
Pacers-Raptors Under in Game 5.
4* INDIANA-TORONTO UNDER
Teddy Davis
Houston vs. Seattle
Play: Seattle +125
The Mariners are worth a look here as an underdog since the Astros are sending their ace Dallas Keuchel to the mound. I was against Keuchel in his last away outing @ Texas and he got shelled. He is a dominate pitcher @ home, but on the road he is just average. His ERA is 5.30 in two road starts so far. Nate Karns is taking the mound for the red hot Mariners who have won 5 of 6. Karns last two starts have been fine in striking out 12 in 10 innings and going 1-0. Astros are just 1-6 their 7 road games vs a right handed starter.