Brad Wilton
Pretty low total at Safeco Field tonight, but I will still play the Astros and the Mariners to hold Under the total in this Tuesday showdown between Dallas Keuchel and Nathan Karns.
Last night's series opener held Under, and it put the Mariners at 7-2 Under the price their last 9 games on the year.
Dallas Keuchel won the Cy Young Award last season, but is off to a slow start this year at 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA. He has made 4 starts against Seattle in his career, and in 3 of the 4 he has allowed no more than one run. Look for him to turn in another gem tonight.
Karns stands at 1-1 with an over 5 ERA for the first month of the season, and while he has not been pitching too well, I can see him going toe-to-toe with Keuchel tonight, as Seattle's Under trend continues.
Play Houston-Seattle to hold Under for the second night in a row.
2* HOUSTON-SEATTLE UNDER
Will Rogers
Indiana vs. Toronto
Pick: Under
The Toronto Raptors will host the Pacers in Game 5 north of the border tonight, and this series is deadlocked at 2-2. All four games in this series have been low scoring, and there's no reason to expect that to change in such a pivotal contest. My money is on the under.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Raptors have failed to reach the total in five straight, and 13 of their last 16 versus opponents from the Eastern Conference.
2. Home Cookin' - The Raptors play strong defense, ranking 3rd overall in the NBA allowing opponents to average just 98.2 points per game. The under is 5-2 in Raptors last seven home games versus a team with a losing road record.
3. X-Factor - .These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in six of the last seven meetings, and the Pacers have gone under in six straight Conference Quarterfinal games..
Ray Monohan
Yankees vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers +106
The Rangers welcome in the Yankees for Game 2 of their series on Tuesday night and the home team at plus money deserves a look here.
Texas sends out A.J. Griffin, who is 2-0 on the year with a 3.18 ERA. In his last time against New York, he pitched 7.0 scoreless innings, scattering 6 hits. Last time out Griffin logged 6.0 innings, allowing just 2 runs while grabbing the win over Houston. Griffin is at his best when he's got his breaking stuff on and is able to locate it on the outside part of the plate.
New York goes with Luis Severino, who is still searching for his first win of the season. He brings in an 0-2 record with an ERA that is inflated a bit, at 4.86. This will be the first time he faces this Texas team and that's never a easy task going through hitters like Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre.
Some trends to consider. Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 Tuesday games. Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
At plus money, the Rangers have solid value here. They get the edge in the pitching matchup and with Severino seeing this team for the first time, expect some struggles, especially early on.
Jimmy Boyd
Reds/Mets Under 7½
I'm expecting a low scoring affair in Tuesday's matchup between the Reds and Mets. The conditions for this game will be less than ideal for scoring, as the wind will be blowing straight in from right field and it's only expected to be in the mid to low 50's.
We also have a couple of capable starters on the mound. Cincinnati sends out Brandon Finnegan, who had allowed 2 or less earned runs in each of his first 3 starts before allowing 5 runs in 4 innings against arguably the best offense in baseball in the Cubs. Prime bounce back spot for the young lefty.
New York counters with veteran Bartolo Colon, who has a strong 3.12 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in his first 3 starts. This will be just the second start at home for Colon and he was dominant in the first, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits with 7 strikeouts against the Phillies.
UNDER is 4-1-1 in the Mets last 6 against a left-handed starter and 19-7-3 in their last 29 home games against a south paw. UNDER is also 7-3-1 in Colon's last 11 starts against the NL Central and 4-1 in his last 5 starts at home.
Gary Bart
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Play: Baltimore
The home team won the first game of the series. The Orioles have a winning record, while the Rays are below 500. Tampa Bay won the first game of this series last night. Baltimore are the better team and should take this game. I like the Orioles over Tampa Bay in this one.
Wunderdog
Kansas City @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles +109
Kansas City heads out to the West Coast, playing its ninth road game over the last 15 contests. They got beat up last night in a 6-1 loss here recording just four hits, dropping them to .500 on the road. Royals righty Edinson Volquez is 1-3 with a 9.42 ERA in five career appearances versus the Angels. The Angels are home for the fifth straight game, winning three of the last five. Starter Jered Weaver (2-0, 3.12 ERA) is off to a strong start and has a winning record with a 2.77 ERA in 14 career starts against Kansas City. The Angels are 50-17 when Weaver starts at home, including 43-18 at home when Weaver faces a team with a winning record.
Otto Sports
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
Play: New York Yankees -115
New York's Luis Severino came into this season with a lot of fanfare following 2015's 11 starts and 2.89 ERA. It's however been a struggle as Severino has been smacked around for 25 hits in 16.2 IP. Prior to his last start, he made some mechanical adjustments that seemed to work as he produced his first quality start of the season (6 IP, 2 ER) vs. Oakland. It was far from a stellar effort as the Yankees' defense saved a few runs but with his velocity up I see bettor efforts on the horizon. Texas' AJ Griffin has consistently outpitched his peripherals with a 3.58 career ERA and 4.36 FIP. A lot of that has to do with Griffin being an extreme fly ball pitcher but tossing in the friendly confines of Oakland. During his lone full season as a starter in 2013, Griffin allowed 21 home runs in 95.2 IP on the road. The Yankees have struggled with the bats this season but should be primed for some offense after facing five straight left-handed starters. Also note that Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller threw an inning apiece during last night's 3-1 win but combined for only 19 pitches and should be available should the need arise. Not exactly a "buy low" situation on Severino who is now the short road favorite but the price is cheap enough to warrant a play.
Nelly
Los Angeles Angels + over Kansas City Royals
The Angels might be fortunate to be just 9-11 as they are -13 in run differential and they are currently the worst hitting team in baseball with a .220 team average. The Angels changed their approach this season and bolstered the defense and they have mimicked the Royals to some extent with a lineup that has the fewest strikeouts in baseball this season with 27 fewer strikeouts than Kansas City. Jered Weaver doesn't resemble the elite starter of years past but he has been effective in three starts with a 3.12 ERA despite a low strikeout rate. Los Angeles has featured a good bullpen this season, actually featuring a far lower relief pitching WHIP than the great Kansas City bullpen has at this point in the season. Kansas City is 12-7 but the Royals have scored four or fewer runs in eight of the last 10 games as the offense has not been clicking yet this season. By default Edinson Volquez has been the top starter for the Royals and Kansas City is 4-0 behind him this season. He relies on strikeouts however and he can be wild as the Angels seem likely to have base runners against him. Volquez has also made three of his four starts at home this season where the Royals are 8-3 but this is just a .500 team on the road. Weaver has emerged as a crafty veteran starter while Volquez is high on the list of pitchers due to regress with an xFIP that is more than two runs higher than his ERA at this point in the season.
Bruce Marshall
Royals -114
The Royals have won all four starts made by Edinson Volquez, who is off a gem of an effort last Thursday vs. the Tigers when tossing 7 shutout innings and allowing just five hits in the process in an eventual 4-0 KC win over the Tigers. Halos starter Jered Weaver was badly roughed up in two starts vs. KC last season, posting a 6.97 ERA in the process.
Pacers / Raptors Under 193
Totals have been the way to go n the NBA Playoffs, more specifically the "unders" which are 24-11 thru the first 35 postseason games. That would include all four meetings in this series that is knotted at 2 wins apiece. With Raptor Gs Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan enduring choppy efforts, and Paul George the only reliable scoring option for the Pacers, another "under" looks a good possibility.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is in National League West play, as I'm taking the San Francisco Giants on the Run Line, over the San Diego Padres.
The reason on that pitching decision, is I'm not a fan of Johnny Cueto. I know what he did in Kansas City and Cincinnati, and I know the problems he caused in clubhouses. He's not a benefit, trust me. So I don't care about him going. Besides, he has a 3.91 ERA in eight lifetime appearances against the Padres.
The thing is, with the Padres, they've lost three in a row, and struggle to win games in San Francisco. Going back several years, the Giants are winning about 67 percent at home against San Diego, with a 35-17 record at home in this series. More recently, and overall, the Giants are on a 7-2 run versus this team.
San Diego, which is 7-13 this season, has lost five of eight while ordering room service, while the Giants (10-11) are a game away from getting back to .500.
2* GIANTS -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 48-33 run with complimentary plays: Oakland at DETROIT (+110)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Oakland Athletics are in Motown to start the week, and after the Detroit Tigers' bats come alive last night in a 7-3 win in the series-opener, I'll play the home underdog as my free play, as I think the A's could be in big trouble for this road trip.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The A's are 7-3 on the road this season, but they're not necessarily in a good position to roll against the Tigers, who are four games back of first-place Chicago. Yesterday's win has to have Detroit fired up to take advantage of the struggling Athletics, who have lost three in a row.
BOTTOM LINE is - Oakland's streaky start to the season has to be alarming. Prior to this three-game slide, the A's enjoyed a six-game winning streak, suffered through a four-game skid and had a three-game win steak. The A's have a 11.30 ERA from their starters on the most recent skid.
5* DETROIT
Chris Jordan
Atlanta's Matt Wisler is in after a career-high 115-pitch outing, and will attempt to build on the success he's had over his first three starts. The good thing is he hasn't had to lean too heavily on his refined changeup, and might be able to bring out of the arsenal tonight. He's once again found success with his slider, so I supposed his expanded artillery is going to work against Boston's heavy hitters.
The main reason I like the other side tonight is David Price, who has been dealing with an erratic start in Boston. While he's been Cy Young-like in a pair of two-run efforts, he's also been dusted in his other two starts, including 3 2/3 innings of eight-run ball versus Tampa Bay in his last start. Atlanta is not an easy place to throw, and if it gets humid, he may have trouble with his grip.
As a freebie, and at this price, I say why not take a shot with this number.
1* ATLANTA
Steve Janus
Hawks -7
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less. This system is 41-16 (72%) ATS since 1996.
Jack Jones
Oakland A's -120
The Oakland A's have a massive advantage on the mound tonight over the Detroit Tigers that is going to lead them to victory. They are also playing their best baseball on the road this season, going 7-3 away from home, which doesn't hurt either.
Rich Hill was an excellent addition to the rotation this season for the A's after pitching well for the Red Sox last year. Hill is 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA through four starts with a whopping 29 strikeouts over 19 innings. This will be his first career start against Detroit.
Mike Pelfrey has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 6.13 ERA and 2.249 WHIP in three starts for the Tigers. Pelfrey has never beaten the A's, going 0-2 with a 14.63 ERA and 2.750 WHIP in two career starts against them. He has allowed 13 earned runs and 22 base runners over 8 innings in those two starts.
The A's are 10-4 in their last 14 road games overall, and 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter.
Jeff Alexander
Astros -134
We are catching a great price to back the Astros with their ace and reigning AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel on the mound. Keuchel was hit hard in his last start, giving up 6 runs on 13 hits in 6 innings at Texas, but prior to that he had allowed just 5 runs on 14 hits in 22 1/3 innings over his first 3 starts. I'll take my chances that Keuchel's last start was a fluke. Let's also not forget he taking on a Mariners offense that is averaging just 2 runs/game at home and hitting a mere .194 against left-handed starters this season.