Brandon Lee
A's -120
Oakland is favored on the road against the Tigers for good reason in Tuesday's matchup. Oakland has a big advantage on the mound in this one. The A's will send out Rich Hill against Detroit's Mike Pelfrey. Hill has a 3.32 ERA in 4 starts with a 1.50 ERA in 2 road starts. He also has an impressive 29 strikeouts in 19 innings of work. Detroit is just 1-5 in their last 6 games against a left-handed starter and are hitting just .219 with a .277 OBP against lefty starters this season. Pelfrey on the other hand has a 6.13 ERA and 2.249 WHIP in his first 3 starts. It's also worth noting that Pelfrey is 0-2 with a 14.63 ERA and 2.750 WHIP in 2 career starts against the A's.
Brian Hay
NY Yankees -112
At present the Texas Rangers are really struggling. Their starting catcher is on the DL and they don't have a reliable MLB caliber replacement. The Rangers offense has some holes with Shin-Soo Choo and Josh Hamilton nursing injuries at the moment. Their bullpen hasn't performed up to last years standards and their starting staff is struggling. Texas sends A.J. Griffin to the mound today. Griffin owns a horrible K-BB ratio of 12-8 in 17 innings of work so far this season, and he hasn't faced tough competition (Angels, Mariners and Astros). The Rangers have lost four straight and that reaches five today at the hands of the Yankees. Luis Severino will start today for the Yankees and he has a very promising future. The Yankees only need him to go about five innings and then they can turn it over to one of the best bullpens in the league.
Dave Price
Houston Astros -134
The Houston Astros are off to a 6-14 start this season, but they are simply too talented to struggle for much longer. Look for reigning AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel to help get them back on track tonight. The left-hander hasn't been as sharp as last year yet, but he's still 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA in 4 starts. He is also 4-4 with a 2.78 ERA in 8 lifetime starts vs. Seattle. We'll gladly fade Nate Karns, who is 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in 3 starts for the Mariners this season. The Astros are 22-6 in Keuchel's last 28 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Scott Rickenbach
St Louis at Arizona
Prediction: Under
Whenever something looks a little "off" I like to investigate further and that certainly has been the case here. Despite how poorly Shelby Miller's numbers are early this season for the Diamondbacks, they are getting some attention from the market today as the early move has been downward on the favored Cardinals money line. Not only that but this total has dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 in spite of the fact that Miller has an 8.59 ERA on the young season. I am recommending consideration of the under in this match-up because Miller's struggles have related to walks and allowing big hits in limited action so far this season. Allowing 14 earned runs on just 18 hits shows that Miller hasn't been giving up a ton of hits but just that he's been giving up big hits. Look for him to fare well after working out some kinks between starts as he's certainly been looking forward to getting back on track on his home mound. At the same time, Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP so far this season! He should have a fantastic start here as he's compiled a 2.08 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in his two career outings against the Diamondbacks. By the way, Miller has a stellar 0.59 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in his two career starts against the Cardinals. The line moves are telling me a lot here and they have me expecting a pitchers' duel in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +165 over TORONTO
After a rough start, the Jays are back to playing .500 ball and bring some momentum into this one after defeating the A’s two games in a row. Contrary to public opinion, Marcus Stroman is not the next great thing in MLB. A knee ligament derailed him in March of last year and he scrambled back for Toronto’s post-season drive in September and gave us a hint of what we missed. Stroman has a top-tier control/groundball% combo, which projects to a high floor and he’s feisty as hell too. However, with just 15 K’s in 28 frames, he doesn’t strike out enough batters to be considered elite. He’ll battle until he’s blue in the face and he’s a gamer for sure but he’s still overpriced. Stroman is at the mercy of his defense and the randomness of where groundballs roll. He also does not have the ability to get out of jams because of his inability to put away hitters. Don’t get us wrong, Stroman has appeal, as there are 29 other MLB teams that would love to have him. However, he’s priced like an elite pitcher again but he’s not there yet.
If you look up Miguel Gonzalez on ESPN’s starting pitchers, they have no clue who he is so let us bring you up to speed. Gonzalez was in the Orioles organization from 2012 until last year. He has 95 career starts to his name and will make his first start this year after signing with the South Side roughly three weeks ago. Gonzalez was originally in the Angels organization from ’05 thru ’08 before being selected by the Red Sox in the December ’08 Rule 5 draft. Boston placed him on the disabled list for the entire ‘09 season and eventually released him at the end of the ’11 campaign. Gonzalez started 26 games in both 2014 and 2015. He walked exactly 51 batters in both 2014 and 2015. Even his strikeout totals were consistent (111 K in 2014; 109 K in 2015). Yet, Gonzalez’s 82% strand rate in 2014 indicated an artificially low ERA. Predictably, his strand rate dropping from 82% in 2014 to 69% in 2015 led to a corresponding rise in earned runs (57 ER in 2014; 79 ER in 2015) and ERA. Going from Baltimore to Chicago, a sub-4.00 ERA is possible in 2016 if Gonzalez maintains his consistency and becomes more adept at stranding runners. He’s only allowed 555 hits in 580 career innings so we’re not talking about a small sample size here. Gonzales also has outstanding numbers against Toronto hitters, as his 26 hits in 113 AB’s against current Blue Jays (.230 oppBA) will attest to. Gonzalez comes in after two outstanding Triple-A rehab starts in which he posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.81 WHIP while striking out 10 batters in 11 innings. The price here makes this a very worthwhile investment.
Oakland +130 over DETROIT
Jordan Zimmermann is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.00 so naturally he has caught the eye of the market. While we respect what Zimmermann has done over his career, he is not an elite pitcher that is going to keep mowing down lineups every time he takes the mound. After spending the first seven years of his career in Washington, Zimmermann came over to the AL with a five-year contract with the Tigers. With 200+ IP in each of the past three years, we can’t imagine that Zimmermann will benefit moving from the NL to the AL over an extended period of time. Zimmermann had just seven K’s in his first two starts while issuing five walks. He’s reliable and he’s durable but he’s also overpriced because of the torrid start. Zimmermann comes into this start with an early xERA of 3.82, which is nearly four runs higher than his actual ERA.
Kendall Graveman is a groundball specialist that went 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA in 116 innings for the Athletics last season. He was sidelined in the last 5 weeks of the season with a strained oblique. Graveman doesn’t miss a ton of bats, so like many of his ilk, Graveman relies on command and the slings and arrows of groundball-location fortune (and infield defense). That’s a very similar profile to Marcus Stroman today, who is in the -180 price range. Graveman showed flashes in a handful of his starts and he’s off to a very strong start this year with 15 K’s, 3 walks and a 65% groundball rate over 18 innings, covering three starts. This small line on the Tigers is also curious and something we are not going to ignore.
St. Louis +106 over ARIZONA
Zack Greinke enjoyed a phenomenal 2015 campaign, leading MLB starters in ERA (1.66) and WHIP (0.84). Incidentally, that was also the best ERA for a qualified starting pitcher since 1995 (Greg Maddux 1.63). It was a brilliant season, to be sure but take a look at his xERA of 3.43 and scan over to hit rate and we’ll get an idea of why Greinke is labouring in the early going and why park factors remain significant. The numbers were strong, but Greinke also had luck on his side in 2015. A fortunate hit% and strand% helped give Greinke’s ERA a substantial artificial boost, as evidenced by xERA. That was only the third time that Greinke has posted a hit% below 31% and both marks were far from his career numbers (31% hit%; 74% strand%).
There is no doubting the fact that Greinke is one of the game’s premier pitchers. He has produced outstanding numbers in four of the last five seasons and six of the past eight, with the only exceptions falling just shy of the mark (97 in 2010 and 96 in 2013). However, unless luck is on his side again in 2016, he’ll have a difficult time replicating his 2015 performance. Savvy bettors will use his xERA as a guide and allow chalk bettors to chase that shiny sub-2.00 ERA. When a pitcher as good as Jaime Garcia is throwing for a team as good as St. Louis is and opposing Greinke, we are only too happy to roll the dice with the dog.
Garcia has 26 K’s in 20 frames to go along with an ERA/xERA split of 2.70/2.53. While injuries have disrupted what was once a promising career path for Garcia, he was able to throw 130 IP in 2015—his highest since 2011—while putting up career bests in ERA and WHIP. Garcia's strength is his ability to keep the ball on the ground, and that remained the case in 2015. His elite groundball % will keep his ERA in favorable territory, especially when pitching at parks like Arizona’s Chase Field. This year, Garcia has added more to his repertoire and it’s paying off. Should this one come down to the bullpens, our chances of cashing increase and that’s something that must be considered as well.
Harry Bondi
CLEVELAND +110 over Minnesota
Great spot to go against the Twins here as the bullpen is taxed and they send Ricky Nolasco to the hill, one of the worst starters in the majors over the last couple years. Nolasco has pitched better this season, but we feel he is a bit overrated in this spot. He is 0-2 in his last two starts against the Tribe while Cleveland starter Cory Anderson has won his last two against the Twins, who are also just 6-14 in their last 20 against right-handed starters.
Bob Balfe
Celtics +7
Game Four was big for the Celtics. The Hawks choked away a big lead in the second half and looked totally lost in the closing minutes of regulation and in OT. Some teams just lack the chemistry to close teams out in big playoff games. Atlanta is a better basketball team, but they just gave away the momentum. They might indeed win this game, but this spread is too high for the level they are playing at right now.
Blue Jays +110
Chris Sale has been great this year, but tonight will face a team that can launch balls out of this park in a hurry. Dickey is hit or miss late in his career, but when he is on there is little hitters can do to put the ball in play. The White Sox just don’t have a great offense this year and that is why this line is not higher. There has been nobody better that Sale to start this year yet he is a small favorite. This game feels like a trap to me. Look for Dickey to have a solid outing.