Info Plays
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs -148
I'm taking Cubs tonight. Here are some of systems backing our pick. Chicago Cubs are 49-20 (+24.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. Chicago Cubs are 50-22 (+17.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
Teddy Davis
Bulls vs. Knicks
Play: Bulls -3½
There is no backing off the Bulls now. It's clear the Knicks have thrown in the the towel for the season so they have no playing interest here. The Bulls are really making a move here sitting in the 7th spot and are now actually only 2 games of the 5 spot.
Jack Jones
Hornets vs. Wizards
Play: Hornets +4
The Charlotte Hornets are coming on strong just in time. They have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games to pull within one game of the Miami Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They have recent road wins over both Toronto and Oklahoma City during this stretch.
The Washington Wizards have gone in the other direction. They are 5-7 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. This is a tough spot for them as it will be their first game back home following a 5-game road trip that ended with a 115-139 loss at Golden State. They are fatigued right now to say the least.
The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. Washington is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss. The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. The underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
Dave Price
Blazers vs. Jazz
Play: Jazz -5½
The Portland Trail Blazers suffered a big blow when Jusuf Nurkic went down with a leg injury and is expected to miss two weeks. He led their resurgence here down the stretch. Now the Blazers are short-handed and in a very tough spot here. They lost their make-up game 109-110 at Minnesota last night, and now they'll have to play in the altitude in Salt Lake City tonight. They'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 15th game in 25 days. The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Jazz have won their last 2 home meetings with the Blazers by 23 and 13 points.
Mark Franco
Hornets vs. Wizards
Play: Hornets + 4
The Washington Wizards were one of the hottest teams in the NBA from Christmas through the middle of March but are beginning to lose some steam as they return home on Tuesday to host the Charlotte Hornets. The Wizards have dropped three in a row still have a shot at the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference but are running out of time to move up.
Washington got a chance to measure itself against three of the best teams in the Western Conference over the last three games and came up short against the Los Angeles Clippers, Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors. The Wizards' defense, which has been called into question on occasion throughout the season, surrendered 133 points to the Clippers and was run off the floor in Sunday's 139-115 loss to the Warriors, who shot 56.2 percent from the floor and buried 16 3-pointers.
The Hornets are trending in the opposite direction and won three in a row to put themselves in a position to challenge for one of the final few spots in the East playoff bracket. Charlotte sits in 10th place in the East but is just one game behind eighth-place Miami and two in back of seventh-place Chicago.
Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Southeast. Wizards are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss and are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 1 days rest. Underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
Black Widow
Magic vs. Cavaliers
Play: Magic +10
Bets on road underdogs (Orlando) after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games against an opponent that's off a win by 6 points or less are 40-10 ATS over the last five seasons. The Cavs are struggling right now and it's a lot to ask of them to win by double-digits to beat us tonight.
Doc's Sports
Bulls vs. Knicks
Play: Bulls -3½
We think that this line is a gift tonight. The Knicks have actually won both meetings this season but they are just biding time until the offseason while the Bulls are in the thick of the playoff race and playing some of their best basketball of the season lately. They have won five of their last six overall and they have been a covering machine lately as they have cashed tickets in seven of their last nine games. All the motivation here is with the Bulls, who are the much better team this season. The Bulls are laying a small number on the road, but the Knicks have not been playing well at home and are 1-3 SU in their last three home games. We had this line handicapped at -6.5 so we think there is nice value here tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW JERSEY +109 over Philadelphia
OT included. If we are going on current form, it's near impossible to make a case for the Devils. Here’s a team that has two lousy wins since February 19, which is almost hard to believe. Hell, teams’ can just show up and get two wins in almost two months but this play is not about the Devils. That said, these two are still rivals and professional athletes have pride. Nobody likes to continually lose and the Devils surely don’t want to end this season on such a weak note. The Devils have been a hard-luck team but they have not quit playing. A win over the Flyers is worth something and so is a strong effort in their second last home game of the season. The Devils absolutely figure to be the more motivated bunch here and the line also says so. Enter the Flyers.
So much of this game is mindset and after 79 games and six months of blood, sweat and tears, Philadelphia will enter this game with the knowledge that they’re not going to compete in the postseason. After all that time and sweat, this will be Philadelphia’s first game of the season without meaning. There will be no “thanking of the fans” for the support and showing up all year with a strong effort as you sometime see in a teams’ last home game of the year. Philadelphia competed in the post-season last year and it took a major run in the final month of the season to get there. This is now almost two full years since the Flyers played a regular season game that meant nothing and we’re suggesting that it’s a horrible spot for them that they figure to bring very little intensity to. That sets up this terrific value play on the dog.
Arizona +193 over DALLAS
OT included. Arizona’s last two victories over Washington and Los Angeles were better on paper than they were on the ice. The Coyotes were outshot 48-23 by Washington and won 6-3 and followed that up by getting outshot 35-15 by Los Angeles on Sunday night in a 2-1 victory. Winning is a lot more fun than losing and Arizona officially knocking out the Kings had to be extra satisfying too. The Coyotes will be without Oliver Ekman Larsson, which is a bit worrisome for sure but this wager has little to do with betting Arizona. The position here is strictly against Dallas because situational betting is a big part of our criterion and the Stars could not be in a worse spot than this one and it all started about a month ago.
After its February 2 game at home against the Islanders, Dallas hit the road for games in Florida and Washington. That was 16 games ago and Dallas has been traveling extensively ever since. For more than a month, Dallas has not played consecutive home games, meaning they have been traveling just about every single day for over a month. Over that stretch, the Stars have been to Florida, Washington, San Jose, Edmonton, Vancouver, Calgary, Chicago, New Jersey, Montreal, Boston, Carolina and Tampa Bay and have only played at home three times in between. This will now be the Stars 16th (!) straight game in which they had to travel to face their next opponent. Dallas is coming off a five-game road trip that started on March 26. This is also its 6th game in nine nights. To add fuel to this fire, Dallas is coming off three successive games (all on the road) against three teams (Carolina, Boston and Tampa) that were all fighting for their playoff lives so intensity was high and so was the excitement in the building. Dallas broke Carolina’s 13 game point streak. They played tough against Boston and tried to fight back against Tampa despite being dead tired. The Stars now return home from playing in playoff-like atmospheres against three desperate teams to play a nothing game against a nothing team that has been out of the playoff picture since November. Try traveling by plane 16 times or every other day for a month. For Dallas, this is nothing more than an inconvenient glorified practice at the end of a season lost and we’re suggesting they’ll be extremely beatable here. The price seals the deal.
SPORTS WAGERS
OAKLAND +104 over L.A. Angels
Every April, a temptation arises to declare the onrushing season The Year. This will be The Year that the Angels either break through and make good on the fact that they have Mike Trout, or collapse, crater, and are forced to trade Trout in order to kick start a rebuild. For five full seasons now, the best player of the 21st century has worn an Angels’ uniform and they have only one (brief) playoff appearance to show for it. There will always be supreme, brilliant, superstar players—guys clearly headed to the Hall of Fame before they even turn 30—who nonetheless fall into a rut and play mostly for forgettable (if not always bad) teams throughout their best seasons. No, 2017 will not make or break the Mike Trout era in Anaheim. It will just bring it 25 percent closer to being over (or at least possibly over). That’s why general manager Billy Eppler didn’t decide to rebuild around Trout over the offseason, so much as to reload around him. The last two winters have seen the Angels trade for Yunel Escobar, Andrelton Simmons, Cameron Maybin, and Danny Espinosa, all at deep discounts. Each player was unwanted by their former team, with pressing concerns about character, money, and/or in-house logjams forcing the issue. The clock is ticking, but as long as Trout is still around, the Angels are going to win a bunch of games. Eppler’s offseason is a testament to the value of Trout. He makes even marginal players into winning pieces. That Eppler worked so hard to give him a few more of them is commendable but c’mon now, L.A.’s opening day starter was Ricky Nolasco and today’s starter is Matt Shoemaker.
After a rough April, a newfound reliance on a split-finger saved Shoemaker’s season. From May 21st to his final start of the year, Shoemaker posted a 2.83 ERA in 130 innings covering 20 starts. His skills, particularly his K-rate tailed off a bit after June, but his first pitch strike rate speaks to his resilience of control and his swing and miss rate raises hopes that his strikeout rate could rebound as well. However, a September skull fracture on a comebacker adds uncertainty and Shoemaker has traditionally been a slow starter. Aside from that, Shoemaker is the second best pitcher here and this one is more about getting behind Oakland’s Sean Manaea before his stock skyrockets.
Manaea went 7-9 with a 3.86 ERA in 145 innings for the A’s last year but there was a lot to like from his debut: Manaea had elite command especially in the 2nd half and it’s supported by his outstanding first-pitch strike rate. Manaea’s swing and miss rate also suggests some more K-rate upside. His groundball rate got progressively better too as the season went on. 17 of the 20 HR’s that he gave up were against righties though hr/f suggests bad luck played a role. Sean Manaea is high on our radar as another excellent breakout target. Few pitchers were better than Manaea in the second half of 2016. His 2H command sub-indicators were firmly elite (13% swing and miss rate, 35% ball%). He was filthy against LH bats but also quite good against opposite-sided batters too. Sean Manaea is poised to take a major step up so the time to buy low on him would be now.
ARIZONA +135 over San Francisco
Johnny Cueto is solid. On most staffs he would be the rotation anchor but on the Giants he’s #2 behind Madison Bumgarner. Cueto had a nice rebound last year from his 2015 second-half swoon. He threw fewer four-seamers and more off-speed stuff, and the result was a career-best first-pitch strike rate and command, plus a nice groundball improvement. Despite nagging injuries, Cueto keeps taking the post and he could easily be considered among the elite. That said, we’re here to find some value in underpriced pitchers and in that regard, Patrick Corbin has the potential to match Cueto pitch-for-pitch if all things are right. Should Corbin hang in and this one goes to the pens, the value on the Diamondbacks increase.
Corbin went 5-13 with a 5.15 ERA last season over 160 innings. He made 24 starts and 12 relief appearances and never quite got on track until later in the year. Although Corbin’ skills were better than that 5-plus ERA, he was still a big disappointment as a starter. Corbin moved to the bullpen in September and suddenly was terrific with 10.2 K’s/9 and two mph more on his fastball. Of course, that calls his 2017 role into question but what we know for sure is that he’s happier being a starter and is coming off a terrific spring. Corbin is feeling great. He pitched back-to-back five inning starts to close out the spring against Texas and Cleveland and allowed just five hits and two runs over those 10 innings. He also struck out eight and didn’t walk a single batter. Let’s not forget that Corbin had a 1½-year layoff after Tommy John surgery back in 2014 and was once a highly touted prospect. He had a breakout campaign in 2013 and could be one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game to begin this season. At this price, at home, Corbin is 100% worth a wager because most folks will see those 2016 numbers and stay clear but we see him coming on big time and ready to thrive again.
Larry Ness
Charlotte vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The 46-31 Washington Wizards were one of the hottest teams in the NBA from Christmas through the middle of March but these last two-plus weeks, have lost their mojo. A current three-game slide leaves them one game back of the Raptors for the No. 3 seed in the East and Washington can ill-afford a home loss tonight against the visiting 36-41 Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets come in on a three-game winning streak, leaving Charlotte in 10th place in the East but only one game behind eighth-place Miami and two in back of seventh-place Chicago.
These two Southeast Division foes meet for the fourth and final time during the regular season in Washington, as the Wizards return home following a five-game road trip. They opened the trip with wins over Cleveland and the LA Lakers but ended by dropping three in a row, all against Western Conference contenders.Washington's 5-7 record since March 13 and Toronto's recent surge, has dropped them to fourth in the East (just one game back of the Raptors) but out of any realistic hopes at the No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
The Hornets have averaged 115.0 points in in their three-game winning streak and have scored at least 105 points in each of their last eight contests. All Star PG Kemba Walker is leading the way while averaging 27.2 points and 5.4 assists in the last five contests, just as he has all season (23.1-5.5 APG). The Hornets survived Russell Westbrook's 40th triple-double on the season in winning 113-101 at OKC on Sunday, as Kemba Walker scored 29 points and Charlotte received 44 points from its reserves.
The Wizards have to play three of their final five on the road, so a win here is a must for Washington's chances at passing Toronto into third in the East. Washington is 29-10 SU at home, while Charlotte is only 14-24 SU on the road. With these teams trending in opposite directions (Washington down and Charlotte up), we get a very favorable pointspread for the home team. That's the bet.
Mike Rose
Rockies at Brewers
Play: Under 8.5
Originally I was all set to back Davies and the Brew Crew Tuesday night thinking they’d be foaming at the mouth after coughing up their season opener to the Rockies. Then I dug into the box score of what transpired in that 7-5 loss and didn’t like what I saw. Milwaukee committed three errors and each of them led to Colorado putting runs on the board. The Brewers weren’t a good fielding team last year either, so that once again looks to be an issue. However, this Davies kid is the rotation’s staff ace and is legit. He silenced the Rox in his lone career start against them last season limiting them to just 5 hits and 1 ER while striking out 8 through 6 IP. He outdueled Tyler Anderson in that game who tallied 10 strikeouts and only conceded a pair of ERs. Both of them came off solo shots from Braun. With both bullpens getting workouts yesterday, I expect both Anderson and Davies to rise to the occasion and go deep in this one. With that I’d hit the under in the F5 innings, but I have to release the full game under since it’s the only option available right now.
Stephen Nover
Raptors / Pacers Under 206
Want a great below-the-radar number? The Raptors have gone under the total in 14 of their last 17 road games. In their last three away contests, the Raptors have held the Mavericks to 86, Heat to 84 and Pistons to 75.
So look for a lower-scoring matchup than the oddsmaker is projecting.
Indiana is off a heart-breaking double overtime 135-130 road loss to the Cavaliers. That could mean fatigue issues for Paul George, who also presents a tough defensive matchup for DeMar DeRozan. The Pacers figure to play at a slow pace after such a strenuous effort in their last game.
The teams just met this past Friday in Toronto. The Raptors won, 111-100. Now the total opened higher than what that total closed, which was 204. The Raptors play tighter on the road. The under has cashed the past five times, too, when the teams have played at Indiana.
Bruce Marshall
Timberwolves at Warriors
Pick: Timberwolves
We'll likely see some price inflation here, as Golden State has looked like a super-hero team once again in current 11-game SU win streak (with only one spread loss last ten). Moreover, Kevin Durant getting very close to a return (now tentatively scheduled for Saturday vs. Pelicans). And T-wolves playing in an unneeded second of back-to-backs after last night's make-up game vs. Blazers at Target Center. So why not be eager to lay the points with Warriors? Because T-wolves have played them tough lately, covering five straight and winning a couple of those, including late last season at Oakland and on March 10 at Target Center, just before Steve Kerr's bunch began its recent ascent. Revenge motive can be meaningful for Warriors (ask Wizards after Sunday beatdown), but Warriors just don't seem to bring their "A" game vs. this foe, which made a mild recovery in the past week with wins over Pacers and Lakers.
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Tuesday night is Philadelphia at home over Brooklyn.
The Nets enter with a 2 game straight up winning streak, and they have also won 5 of their last 8 straight up as well.
The Sixers have dropped 3 in a row, as their last win comes against the same Nets team they are hosting tonight.
Philly in fact has won all 3 season series meetings this year, and they are 5-1 straight up the last 6 times these teams have faced one another, going 4-2 against the spread in those 6.
The 76ers have shown a marked improvement from a season ago, as their 28 wins would indicate. Look for Philly to take another off of their Atlantic Division rival.
Sixers the call.
2* PHILADELPHIA
Chris Jordan
Tonight my free winner is on the Texas Rangers, over the Cleveland Cavaliers, as I like Martin Perez over Carlos Carrasco.
I'm actually shocked the Rangers are catching this much money at home, and I don't care it's the defending American League champs. Makes no difference to me.
Perez made 18 starts in Arlington last year and was 8-3 with a 3.24 ERA that was the seventh lowest home ERA in the American League
The Texas southpaw made one start against the Indians last season and allowed six runs on 10 hits in 5.2 innings. He'll be out to avenge that - yes, one season later - as he'll want to produce a quality start in his home opener.
Carrasco was limited to 146.1 innings last year due to injuries, and will come into the postseason as Cleveland's No. 2 starter. He dealt with mild elbow inflammation during the spring, and I'm just not sure how ready he is for this game.
Take Texas.
3* RANGERS