DAVE COKIN
PANTHERS AT CANADIENS
PLAY: CANADIENS +125
Montreal is playing out the string, with just three games remaining before the Habs put away the equipment till next fall. This has been a bitterly disappointing campaign for a team that started the season 9-0 and looked to be in great shape. But when goalie Carey Price went down, the hopes for the Canadiens went with him.
It’s just the opposite scene for the Florida Panthers. They won again on Monday night, clinching home ice advantage for the opening round and also seeing a franchise mark for most wins. This franchise has been playing in front of lots of fans dressed as empty seats for a long time. But the faithful have returned, along with those toy rats and this Florida team could be a real handful come playoff time.
There’s no question about which is the stronger team here, and the Panthers can still improve their seed with more wins. But I think this might be a tough spot for them. Give the Habs credit for continuing to play with effort in what has been a succession of meaningless games.
Assuming that Montreal team shows up at home tonight, they should have a good chance to get a win against Florida. Considering what was accomplished in the win at Toronto last night, this qualifies as a bit of a flat spot for the Panthers. Montreal has shown me enough in the last few games to be convinced they’ll play hard tonight, and I believe they have a very good shot to grab a couple of points in the process. I’ll take the Canadiens as a decently priced home underdog.
Sleepyj
Houston -127
I'm actually quite high on the Astros this year...They have all the pieces to make a run at a world series this year...I think they have enough of everything and it all starts with the ace of the staff...last year Dallas Keuchel was a monster at home...He must think to himself, if I can pitch just as good on the road can I be the leagues best pitcher....We if he asked himself that question before this game, he has the showcase now to get his first road win of the season here...As far as the Yanks are concerned, I don;t see a ton of young talent..Some aging stars looking to put a magical season together...Yanks will fall short again this year and injuries may hurt them as we move along this year...I don't have anything against Tanaka, but when I match up the pitchers Vs. lineups, I favor Keuchel and the Stros by a decent margin...Now neither team is easy to pitch around, but I believe Keuchel will have his stuff here today..Stros have high hopes all around and opening up the season at Yankee Stadium will bring out the best of this Astros team today....I like the Astros hitters, power, defense and pitching...The bullpens are tough for both teams, but I believe Keuchel will go deeper in this game....This game will be close and I predict the pitcher who gives up a bomb in this one will end up losing...Speed may be a factor as well and I give that nod to the Astros if they fall behind to manufacture some runs....Keuchel has been the better of the two with avoiding the big deep shot..I think it wil
Rob Vinciletti
Astros vs. Yankees
Play: Astros -127
The Astros have Dallas Keuchel on the hill and he has dominated the Yankees in his last 3 starts going 3-0 and 22 score less innings. Keuchel has gone 7-0 in April starts and 4-1 of late as a road favorite. Houston has hit Tough actin Tanaka pretty well scoring 8 runs in 2 starts spanning 10 innings. The Astros are a team on the rise and have won 4 of 5 here in NY. The Yankees are 11-25 as a home dog and 2-8 more recently. Look for Keuchel to lull them into a stupor once again.
Marc Lawrence
Red Sox vs. Indians
Play: Indians -104
Edges - Indians: Corey Kluber 2-0 with 2.52 ERA home team starts in this series. Red Sox David Price just 8-8 away team starts during April. With Kluber in sharp form with a 2.19 ERA and 26 K’s and 4W’s this spring. In a re-scheduled matchup from yesterday, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Bob Harvey
Wolves vs. Warriors
Play: Under 225½
After losing their perfect home record, the Golden State Warriors go for their second straight victory when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Oakland. In their last meeting, Golden State squeezed by Minnesota 109-104 on the road on March 21.
Golden State (69-8, 42-33) bounced back from its first home loss in over a year with a rout of Portland 136-111 on Saturday and remains on track to break the record for wins in a single season. Golden State shot 56.8 percent from the field and got 39 points from Stephen Curry. They need to go 4-1 over the final five games of the regular season to break the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ record of 72 wins.
The Timberwolves (25-52, 35-41) are averaging 80.7 points in three straight losses and went 4-of-21 from 3-point range in an 88-78 home loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday. Rookie of the Year frontrunner Karl-Anthony Towns had 11 points, 21 rebounds and nine assists.
Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall, 0-5 ATS last five against the Western Conference but is on a 4-1 ATS run against Golden State.
The Warriors are 5-1-1 in their last seven vs. the Northwest Division but are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings and 19-7 in the past 26
Jim Feist
Chicago at Memphis
Pick: Memphis
The Chicago Bulls almost have to win out their last five games to get that last playoff spot. The Bulls are two back of both the Pistons and Pacers with five to play. The Bulls do hold one of the two tiebreakers, against Indiana. The Bulls have had to play the last few games without star PG Derrick Rose, who has a sore elbow. Chicago has won three of their last four games, but that one loss was a big one to Detroit last Saturday. That loss is what put them two games back of the Pistons. The Bulls have also covered four of their last five games. Memphis has the fifth slot in the NBA West right now, but mathematically they could finish anywhere from fifth to out of the playoffs. Only three games separate the Grizzlies from 9th place Houston right now. So lots to play for here with the Grizzlies. Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, they have been in a free fall of late. Memphis has now lost six straight games and 10 of the last 12. They have done a bit better against the number, going 5-4 ATS the last nine games. The Grizzlies have no easy road left with Golden State twice, the Clippers, Mavericks and Bulls. They need tonight's contest badly.
SPORTS WAGERS
ST. Louis -105 over PITTSBURGH
Bet Michael Wacha early in the season and fade him late. For two years running, Wacha’s 1H/2H split paints a fuzzy picture. However, the bulk of last season was great with a 2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and just 2.4 BB/9 in 119 IP (mid-May thru Aug). A rough Sept. (7.88 ERA) smacks of classic fatigue (velocity drop, HR jump) and he did something similar the year before. In 20 innings this past spring, Wacha posted a 1.77 ERA with a BB/K split of 4/16. Wacha still possesses the raw upside to turn into an ace, but his prior health and durability issues may prevent that from happening. For our purposes however, Wacha is a great option this early in the season against Jonathan Niese.
Last season, Niese stayed healthy for once, but his skills were ill. His K-rate drop mostly versus lefties but both sides swung less and his swing and miss rate sunk. Perennially hittable, Niese needs great control to avoid an awful WHIP. His first-pitch strike rate says that's still possible, but without a swing and miss return, that likely just means more hits. Niese was already fringe at his peak and the decline could be swift. Bet against him beforfe that happens.
Toronto +104 over TAMPA BAY
Jake Odorizzi looks to improve upon his 8 K’s/9 and his 2.4 BB/9 last year. Odorizzi holds a career 2.79 ERA at home but he owned a 5.71 ERA and a xERA of 5.22 in three road starts against Toronto last year. Furthermore, Odorizzi threw just eight innings this spring and allowed nine hits with a BB/K split of 4/6. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball numbers last year weren’t very exciting either at 37%/22%/41%. He has a career groundball/line-drive fly-ball split of 32%/26%/42%, which is not the type of pitcher we want to get behind as the chalk against the Blue Jays.
You may not remember that Aaron Sanchez was a stud prospect about 20 minutes ago. The 2010 1st-rounder had some decent results last season with a 3.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, but 30 of his 41 appearances were out of the bullpen and the supporting skills didn’t exactly wow (16% K, 12% BB) in 92.3 IP. There wasn’t much winter chatter about Sanchez likely due to the uncertain role and modest skills outside of a gaudy 61% groundball rate. Now that he has beaten out Drew Hutchison for the fifth spot, he has come back in focus. He’s got a power arm that works 94-96 MPH as a starter, but velocity hasn’t really been the issue. Commanding the fastball has proven quite difficult. His 16% walk rate with the fastball is 3rd-worst among 192 pitchers since 2014 (min. 800 fastballs thrown). If he’s limiting free passes early on, we could be looking at a potential breakout here. The Jays know full well he’s not taking 30+ turns in the rotation but Sanchez doesn’t want to go back to the pen. He has openly stated that he’s a starter and wants to remain a starter. Sanchez’s sinking mid-90s stuff speaks to both his high floor and ceiling and if he can improve his first-pitch strike rate, he’s going to be a beast. Just throw strikes today Aaron.
Colorado +138 over ARIZONA
The Rockies were projected by just about every publication to be one of the three worst teams in MLB. Most publications had them losing 100 games or damn close to it. The players read or at the very least hear about it because in this day and age, it’s impossible not to. In any event, the Rocks bring a huge chip on their shoulder to the park this year and they started off by smacking around Zack Greinke (his worst outing in four years) yesterday in a 10-5 victory. The Rockies lineup is stacked and if Trevor Story is not a one-day wonder, (he came in highly touted), these Rockies are going to be the NL version of the Blue Jays in terms of offense.
Chad Bettis went 8-6 with a 4.23 ERA in 115 innings for Colorado last season. He was basically an emergency rotation member to start year and managed to keep his head above water by keeping the ball out of the thin air. His dominant start/disaster start split speaks to his "not horribleness." A month-long DL stint (elbow) interrupted Bettis’s season-ending run of eight very good outings in nine starts. Bettis improved to 7.2 K’s/9 in 2015. He gave up one earned run and struck out six in 6 IP against Arizona on September 30. In 20 games started last year, Bettis relied on his 49% groundball rate and good control.
That first win of the season can sometimes be the most difficult and now it’ll rest on Arizona’s other off-season starting pitcher acquisition, Shelby Miller. Miller is a pitcher with a lot of different forecasts heading into 2016. For some, he's someone who could deliver more value than expected. We on the other hand will note his mediocre skill base from 2015 and stay away when he’s the chalk: 7.5 K’s/9, 3.2 BB/9, 48% grounders. In fact, Miller’s skills went from decent in the first half (3.58 xERA) to poor in the second half (4.74 xERA). Miller now goes from a pitcher friendly park in Atlanta to a HR-friendly home park in Arizona and that doesn’t figure to help matters. Miller’s subpar K-rate, command and xERA puts to rest any argument that he was unlucky. His ERA downside outweighs his W/L upside. We’re not suggesting that Bettis is the better pitcher here. We’re just suggesting that the Rockies are the much better wager taking back a tag than Arizona is spotting one.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose +104 over MINNESOTA
OT included. Minnesota is going to back into the playoffs whether they win another game or not. The Wild are five points ahead of Colorado so one inevitable loss by the Avs and the Wild will seal the deal. The Wild may have been better off missing the playoffs because they are going nowhere fast. The Wild have lost three straight to Ottawa, Detroit and Winnipeg. At a time when every team is creating about 100 chances against the Red Wings a night, Minnesota mustered a mere 22 shots on net with 13 scoring chances. Against another leaky defense, the Sens, the Wild mustered a mere 25 shots on net in a 3-2 loss. Finally, in their last game in Winnipeg, Minnesota lost 5-1 and were outshot and outplayed in that one too. In three of their past six games, Minnesota has been held to 22 shots on net or fewer. Over that span against Chicago and Los Angeles, the Wild were held to 18 shots in both games. The Sharks defensive system is one of the best in the league, which does not bode well for this punch-less host.
The Sharks will play their final road game of the year here followed by home games against the Jets and Coyotes. It is quite conceivable for the Sharks to run the table and improve their playoff seeding. San Jose owns the NHL’s best road record at 27-10-3. Overall, the Sharkies are just 5-5 over their past 10 games but put no weight on any of those losses because they have been dominating games. In a recent 1-0 loss in St. Louis, San Jose dominated puck possession and shots on net. In a recent 4-2 loss to the Stars, the Sharks outshot Dallas 36-17. In their 4-2 loss to Vancouver, they outshot the Canucks 36-24 and the list goes on. The Sharks have been outshot fewer times than any team in the NHL this season. They have outshot 13 of their past 14 opponents and over that span, the Kings were the only team to outshoot them and that was by one shot, 32-31. James Reimer gets the start here and he has five wins in his last six starts overall and has stopped 92 of 94 shots to post a 2-1-0 mark in his career versus Minnesota. Give the Sharkies a better than 50% chance of winning here.
Zack Cimini
Oklahoma City vs. Denver
Pick: Oklahoma City
Teams aren't typically favored steep in the altitude of Denver but that's the case for the Thunder. Sunday, Oklahoma fell with a head scratching drought with a five point lead late against the Rockets. Tonight, they'll yet again face an open court style game. Expect the Thunder's second half bench minutes to shine bright and put away the hapless Nuggets.
Bruce Marshall
Dodgers at Padres
Pick: Padres
After last night's humiliation, the Padres might have a better chance tonight, especially as they don't have to face Clayton Kershaw. Instead, softer-throwing Scott Kazmir is on the hill for the Blue. Padres starter James Shields endured a disappointing 2015 but was still 6-3 at home and pitched fairly well vs. the Dodgers, striking out 25 in as many innings and allowing a solid .216 OBA.
Ben Burns
Hawks -14½
The Suns are at the wrong place at the wrong time. The Hawks will be in an angry mood. Not only have they lost back-to-back games but they also got upset at Phoenix, as 10-point favorites, back in late January. The depleted Suns figure to be the perfect opponent to "get healthy" against. Phoenix has lost six straight overall, most recently a 15-point home loss against the Wizards on Sunday. The Suns are an ugly 12-26 ATS (7-31 SU) on the road including a 1-4 ATS mark as road underdogs in the 12.5 to 15 range and a 2-8 ATS (1-9 SU) record on the road when the O/U line ranged from 205 to 209.5. It was almost exactly one year ago that a much better Phoenix team played here. The Hawks won that game by 27 points, a 96-69 destruction. Atlanta hit 49% of its shots while the Suns connected on just 31% of theirs. A similar result tonight won't surprise. Consider laying the points.
Stephen Nover
Wolves vs. Warriors
Play: Wolves +16
The Warriors got back to winning by burying Portland, 136-111, on Sunday after suffering their first home loss of the season this past Sunday to the Celtics. The Warriors need to go 4-1 in their final five games to set the record for most wins in a season. Those games will be against the Spurs and Grizzlies. This is the rest stop game for Golden State. The Warriors are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing a foe with a winning percentage below .400.
The Timberwolves have lost three in a row, but are at their best in these type of spots. Minnesota is 12-3 ATS the past 15 times playing opponents with a winning record. They have covered five of their last seven road games, including beating Oklahoma, Washington and Memphis straight-up during this span.
Minnesota hung tough at home against Golden State in the team's last meeting on March 21. The Warriors won, 109-104, as 12.5-point favorites. It was the fourth time in the last five meeting between the two teams that the Timberwolves covered.
Certainly the Warriors are capable of blowing out any team - especially at home - but the Timberwolves have a lot of young talent, should be motivated and this isn't the most intense spot for Golden State. Look for the Timberwolves to hang within this large number.
Jimmy Boyd
76ers -2.5
It's going to come as a big surprise to most to see the 76ers laying points, as they coming into this game having lost 12 straight. New Orleans on the other hand has won each of their last two games and covered four straight. Oddsmakers know by making Philadelphia a favorite the public is going to be all over the Pelicans in this spot, which has me jumping on the 76ers in this one.
Keep in mind that Philadelphia has been favored three times this season and won all three of those games. What people are overlooking with this contest is just how hard it's going to be for New Orleans to get up for a game against the 76ers on the road, as the Pelicans have nothing to play for right now.
You also can't ignore the injury situation for the Pelicans, who basically are throwing out a D-league squad right now. Anthony Davis, Eric Gordon, Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson, Tyreke Evans, Norris Cole and Alonso Gee are just some of the names who are out for the season.
If the 76ers were tanking, that's not a concern anymore, as they have already secured the worst record in the league. Pelicans are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games off a road win by 10 or points as a road underdog, while Philadelphia has gone an impressive 20-8 ATS in their 28 non-conference games this season.
Jack Jones
Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
The Portland Trail Blazers have a great shot of catching the depleted Memphis Grizzlies for the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference. They are only a half-game behind the Grizzlies for that No. 5 spot, and they are on a mission to get it.
The Blazers come in having gone 4-1 in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Golden State Warriors. One of those wins was a 105-93 home victory over these same Sacramento Kings on March 28.
The Kings come in overvalued as only 2.5-point home underdogs to the Blazers here due to having gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. But now is the time to fade them as they still have nothing to play for as the Blazers will want this game more.
This has been a great matchup for the Blazers, who are 5-0 SU in their last five meetings with the Kings with all five victories coming by 4 points or more, and three by double-digits. Portland is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Sacramento as well.
The Blazers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Portland is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS loss. The Kings are 22-49-2 ATS in their last 73 games playing on 2 days' rest.
Mike Lundin
Mets vs. Royals
Play: Over 8
This looks like a good spot to back the over when the New York Mets and the Kansas City Royals will conclude their two-game series at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won the first meeting 4-3, but I think we'll see more runs scored today.
The Mets will turn to Noah Syndergaard (2015: 9-7, 3.24 ERA) who despite a fantastic rookie season struggled on the road, posting a 4.23 ERA in 12 starts. We can also note that he compiled a 5.86 ERA in five starts against American League opponents. The over is 4-1 in the Royals last five interleague games vs. a right-handed starter and 6-0-1 in Syndergaard's last seven road starts.
The Royals hand the ball to another right-hander in Chris Young (2015: 11-6, 3.06) who has struggled with the Mets in previous meetings, posting a 6.05 ERA through four career starts. He had a 4.50 ERA in 12 day appearances last season and a 3.66 ERA in 14 outings at home. Over is 5-1 in Mets last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings, and this should fly over as well.