Free Picks for Tuesday, Tuesday, December 13th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TWOLVES AT BULLS
PLAY: BULLS -7
This getting really strange. The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to muddle along at the very bottom of the NBA overall standings. The Wolves are a pathetic 6-18 overall.
But, and here’s the explanation of why this is so strange, Minnesota remains one of the best first half teams in the league. The Timberwolves are actually the sixth best first half team in the entire league. The only teams ahead of them are the Warriors, Clippers, Cavaliers, Rockets and Raptors. It’s downright bizarre that a 6-18 team would be keeping that company, even if only for half the game.
The second half stats tell the sad story. Inc are you haven’t already figured it out, Minnesota is dead last in the league after halftime, losing the second half by an average of seven points per game. And they’re actually getting worse as the season progresses.
What’s the explanation? At first, I figured that maybe the Wolves just weren’t in as good a shape as they should be physically. But I’m now pretty sure this is more in their heads than their bodies. It’s almost as if they expect things to go awry after halftime, and in fact they usually do.
The bad news for Minnesota tonight is that the Bulls have been one of the better first half teams themselves. They’re sitting right behind the Wolves in that category. Obviously, they’re a whole lot better than Minnesota after intermission.
There are some other current in-season trends that also seem to favor Chicago here. Maybe Tom Thibodeau congers up some magic in his first trip back to his former head coaching stamping grounds. But I’ll put more faith in the numbers and will side with the Bulls to notch the win and cover tonight.
Stephen Nover
Los Angeles at Baffalo
Play: Buffalo +109
The Los Angeles Kings didn't practice Monday. The reason being they're heading out for a seven-game, 12-day road swing starting today in Buffalo. Obviously the Kings would like to set the right tone for their long trip with a victory against the Sabres. History says no. So does their road record. The last time the Kings defeated the Sabres in Buffalo was 2003. The Sabres have won seven home games in a row against Los Angeles. Going back all the way to 1992-93, the Sabres are 13-1-1 against the Kings in Buffalo. LA has done the job at home going 10-4-1. However, the Kings are 4-7-1 on the road. This is their first away game in 12 days. They are 6-14 during their past 20 away contests going back to last season. Buffalo has been home for a week. The Sabres were able to practice on Monday unlike the Kings. The Sabres are rested and ready having last played on Friday. The Sabres are a defensive club ranking 11th in fewest goals given up per game. They do have a top-five power play, though, and emerging star Jack Eichel is back from a high ankle sprain to give them more offensive credibility.
Ben Burns
Blue Jackets vs. Oilers
Play: Oilers -113
The Jackets are rolling right now. However, I won't be surprised to see the Oilers cool them off this evening. The home team won both meetings in this series last season, the Oilers winning by a 5-1 margin here at Edmonton. Including that victory, the Oilers are a dominating 20-6 (+10.8 ) in 26 meetings here. Of course, Columbus is a better team now than it was in the past. So, those numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. All the same, this city has NOT been kind to the Jackets.
The young and talented Oilers have been "streaky" this season and they snapped a 4-game losing streak last time out. That's both noteworthy and interesting because if we look at this season's results, the Oilers haven't followed a loss with a win and then another loss all season long. In other words, they haven't had a "1-game winning streak" all season. Lets take a closer look. The Oilers won two in a row to start the season, before losing their third game. Next, they won five straight. Since then, sandwiched between various losing streaks, they've won two in row, three in a row, and two in row.
Beating Columbus certainly won't be as easy as it was last season or in the past. Still, the Jackets are playing at a fast pace right now and thats the way the Oilers like it. Playing in their own (new) building, where they outscore teams by a 2.6 to 2.4 average margin, and coming off a win last time out, I like their chances of making it two in a row.
Mike Lundin
Grizzlies vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -13½
The banged up Memphis Grizzlies have somehow managed to win six straight and 13 of their past 16 games. They're coming off a 110-89 trouncing of the Warriors, but I don't see them being even close to upset the Cavs at Cleveland Tuesday night. Marc Gasol (rest) will not play here in the front end of a back-to-back set as the teams will do battle at Memphis tomorrow. Gasol has played 32+ minutes in nine straight games and he's been key to the Grizzlies recent success.
The Cavs have won four straight and they're coming off a 116-105 win against Charlotte. They're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win of more than 10 points and 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
Power Sports
Memphis vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
This will actually be the start of a home and home between these two teams. They play tomorrow night in Memphis. Cleveland has actually won four in a row, going to back to a big win in Toronto last Monday. Since then, they've routed the Knicks, Heat and Hornets by an average of nearly 25 points per game. This is the third most efficient offense in the game, trailing only the Raptors and Warriors. They have covered both times they've been a home fave of 12.5 or more points this season. Their average margin of victory this season, at home, is already 11.6 points per game.
Despite losing Mike Conley, the Grizzlies have now won six in a row. That definitely has caught me by surprise. Interestingly, the only game they haven't covered during that stretch was against Philadelphia, though that's because they were 7.5-pt favorites. Twice this year, vs. Golden State and at the Clippers, they've won outright as DD chalk. But they also failed to cover getting 13.5 at Toronto earlier in the year. Despite the impressive feat they just pulled off, I'm not ready to "buy" what the Grizz are "selling.
Jim Feist
Denver at South Alabama
Pick: Under
A long road trip for a Denver team playing some defense, allowing 55 and 65 points in two of their last three contests. Denver is 17-8 under the total in non-conference games. South Alabama is home and on a 5-1 run under the total. The Under is 21-8 in the Jaguars last 29 non-conference games. And when these teams clash the under is 9-0.
Matt Fargo
TWolves vs. Bulls
Play: TWolves +7
Minnesota enters Tuesday on a four-game losing streak but it has been in bad spots in all of those games. The Timberwolves lost to the Warriors which were coming off a loss against Memphis, lost to Detroit which was coming off a loss against Chicago and also lost to red hot Toronto and San Antonio which was undefeated on the road at the time. It has been a disappointing start to the season as Minnesota was a deep sleeper team to make a playoff run because of all the talent available. The hiring of Tom Thibodeau was also considered a positive move and it still is as there is plenty of time and talent to get things done in the future. This is a big game for Thibodeau who makes his return to Chicago for the first time since being fired so this is a one he wants to win badly. The Bulls have won their last two games following a three-game losing skid to move into second place in the Central Division and are now just a half-game out of third place in the Eastern Conference. They have been solid at home with a 7-3 record but they are just 4-4 ATS as home favorites while going 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Minnesota falls into a solid situation where we play on road underdogs after allowing 105 points or more three straight games going up against an opponent after a win by six points or less. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) over the last five seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
Knicks vs. Suns
Play: Suns +2½
I successfully played against Phoenix in their last game at home, when they fell 119-120 at home as a 2-point favorite against the Pelicans. Now I'm going to back the Suns at home, as I look for them to bring their "A" game tonight against the Knicks.
New York comes in having won each of the first two games on their current 5-game road trip, squeaking out wins over the Kings (103-100) and Lakers (118-112). Now they are in a major flat spot in the third stop on the trip against a struggling Suns team with a monster game on deck Thursday against the Warriors, which will be a nationally televised game on TNT.
The Suns are 23-12 ATS in their last 35 home games off a loss, 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 after failing to cover the spread in their last game, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning straight up record.
Larry Ness
Memphis vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland
The Cavs ran into a little bit of trouble, losing three consecutive games from Nov 30 thru Dec 3 but have rebounded with some dominating offensive performances, to reel off four straight wins. Led by its “Big Three” of LBJ (25.0-7.7-9.1), Irving (23.9-4.7 APG) and Love (21.7-10.3), the Cavs averaged a whopping 118.0 PPG in that four-game wining streak.
Despite a ton of injuries, the Grizzlies come into this game having won SIX in a row, all without PG Conley (19.2-3.5-5.7). Memphis has won 13 of 16 overall and now sit at 17-8. The injury list is long, consisting of Mike Conley (back), James Ennis (calf), Chandler Parsons (knee), Vince Carter (hip) and Brandan Wright (ankle) plus the Grizzlies will sit center March Gasol (19.9-6.2) in this one simply for rest during a brutal stretch of games.
One could argue that the Grizzlies are “doing it with mirrors” but the team's domination of Golden State last Saturday was complete, as all five starters reached double digits and Memphis led by as many as 30 points in that 110-89 victory. However, without Gasol, they are no match for the Cavs, who have too much scoring ‘punch’ here at Quicken Loans Arena.
David Banks
Temple vs. Villanova
Pick: Villanova -16.5
The No. 1-ranked Villanova Wildcats look to take the Philadelphia Big 5 with a win over Temple on Tuesday night. The Big 5 is an informal series between the five schools in Philly. All the games are played at the Palestra, a landmark basketball arena in the city. The Wildcats have already beaten Penn (82-57), St. Joes (88-57), and LaSalle (89-79).
Villanova is coming off a nice win over No. 23 Notre Dame last week. Josh Hart proved why he is one of the nation’s best players. He became the first player since Antawn Jamison to score at least 35 points, have 10 rebounds, and shoot 70 percent-plus from the field in a single game. Hart shot 10-of-14, including 3-of-4 from 3-point range, made all 14 of his free throws, and finished with 37 points. He grabbed 11 rebounds and dished out four assists. That type of play on Tuesday will surely help against an Owls team that is 7-3 thus far this season.
Temple has two big wins already this season beating then No. 25 Florida State (89-86) and 19th-ranked West Virginia (81-77). Obi Enechionyia, a 6-10 junior forward, is the Owls’ leader. He averages 18.6 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Shizz Alston Jr. is a talented 6-4 freshman that is helping make Temple’s offense go. Alston averages 12.6 points, 4.6 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game. Tuesday’s game is big for both schools as they will each have two more games remaining before beginning conference play at the end of the month.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles vs. Buffalo
Pick: Los Angeles -115
Los Angeles is on a 7-1-2 run with good balance, ranked #15 on offense, and ninth in the league in goals allowed. Los Angeles is coming off a 4-1 win over the Ottawa Senators on Saturday. The Kings are 9-4 when following a win and face a rebuilding Buffalo squad that is last in the NHL in goals scored. The last-place Sabres have struggled with their offense throughout the season and have mustered just eight goals in their last four games. Buffalo is coming off a disappointing 4-1 home loss to Washington on Friday and has a losing home record. Sabres defenseman Taylor Fedun (shoulder) is expected to miss his fourth consecutive game tonight. Buffalo is also 20-57 against a winning team, plus on a 25-51 run at home.
Micah Roberts
Temple at Villanova
Play: Villanova -16
I'm looking at Villanova 14-points better than Temple on a neutral court and give Villanova +5 for home court, so this is a play for me just because of the differential of what books are offering. No. 1 Villanova has won all 10 games this season and shoot an amazing 50 percent from the field. I love that their best players are seniors and that they make their free-throws.
Bob Valentino
My free winner tonight is in college hoops, where I am playing the Denver Pioneers against the South Alabama Jaguars.
Not sure what the oddsmakers are seeing in this one, but the wrong team might be favored in this one.
I know the Jags are 6-3 this season, but they step to the court mired in a two-game losing streak after losses to Middle Tennessee State and Stetson. And while they might be a better team than that, that's not necessarily good heading into this matchup of former league rivals.
The Pioneers, who used to be a part of the Sun Belt Conference, are averaging 73.0 points per game, which is tied for fourth in the Summit League. This team has shot the ball well this year, ranking second in the Summit League with a 47.6 field-goal percentage, while also knocking down 7.8 3s a game, good for third highest in the Summit.
The Pioneers also bang hard in the paint, outrebounding their opponents by 3.8 a game, third in the conference.
The fact they've made this trip and coach Rodney Billups will know how to prepare his troops for the end of this road trip is a huge plus.
Take the road dog.
4* DENVER
Brett Atkins
My Tuesday free play is the Ducks over the Grizzlies in college buckets.
Oregon got off to a slow start as they split their first 4 games of the season, but have since reeled off 6 wins in a row, and over some decent competition - Tennessee, Boise State, Connecticut and Alabama.
Look for the Ducks to stretch it out against the 3-7 Grizzlies from Montana, as Montana is just 3-7 on the season, and are on a 2-7 spread slide their last 9 games played away from Big Sky Country.
Oregon has been asked to cover some big imposts, and they have not fared all that well in that regard just yet - only 2-3 against the spread in Eugene this season - but I have a feeling Dana Altman's team is ready to lower the boom on someone, and that someone is Montana tonight.
Go ahead and lay the big wood as Oregon rolls strong.
2* OREGON