Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers against Memphis, as I'm not ready to buy into the Grizzlies just yet.
I know Memphis carries a six-game winning streak into this game, including an impressive 110-89 dismantling of Golden State on Saturday, but keep in mind the Warriors were playing their third road game four days.
Memphis is playing three consecutive games against the two teams that played for the championship last season, as it will host the Cavaliers tomorrow night in the second of a back-to-back set with the champs.
And I don't think the Grizzlies can keep this up without the likes of Mike Conley (back), James Ennis (calf), Chandler Parsons (knee), Vince Carter (hip) and Brandan Wright (ankle).
Not when the Cavaliers should be back at full strength tonight, since Channing Frye rejoined the team following his father's funeral.
Cleveland has won four straight by an average margin of 19.25, with the wins coming against the Raptors, Knicks, Heat and Hornets. Those are pretty decent wins, considering the margin we're talking about.
Memphis arrives on a 2-5 ATS slide against Eastern Conference foes, while the Cavaliers have covered five of six at the Q.
Lay the home chalk.
5* CAVALIERS
Brad Wilton
The Warriors have been Under the total in each of their last 4 games - all of them on the road! - and tonight will conclude a 5 game, 7 day, road swing against a team that likes to play'em high.
The Pelicans have played their last pair and 4 of their last 6 games Over the posted price.
This is the second meeting of the year between the teams, and the first in early November at the Oracle did play Over the total, as the Dubs and Pels have played 4 straight against each other Over the total.
Golden State is on a 4-0 Over run their last 4 games played against a team with a losing record, while New Orleans has landed Over the total their last 4 games versus teams with a winning record.
Even though the Warriors are a little tired from this rough road stretch, I see the series numbers holding tonight, as the Warriors and Pelicans make it 5 straight series Overs.
2* GOLDEN STATE-NEW ORLEANS OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner is on the Oklahoma City Thunder over the Portland Trail Blazers tonight, as Russell Westbrook and company catch this team at the time.
I won't even spend a lot of time on this game, cause it's not worth it for me to overexplain. Here's the bottom line:
The Blazers return home for ONE game after playing five straight on the road, in a eight-day span, from Chicago, Milwaukee, Memphis, Indianapolis and Los Angeles. After tonight, it's back on the road for three more games in Denver, Oakland and Sacramento.
No rest for the weary, and the Thunder will take advantage of a team that has now lost four straight.
How Portland is laying points is beyond me, as OKC has won and covered seven of eight.
Take the road team here, as it wins outright.
1* THUNDER
BRANDON LEE
Tennessee -16
Tennessee Tech comes into this game off a 63-71 loss at Michigan State on Saturday as a 19-point dog. That strong showing is definitely drawing some interest on the Golden Eagles here against Tennessee, but I don't see Tech being able to come out with the same effort they did against the Spartans, who keep in mind were without their best player in star freshman Miles Bridges. Even without their best player, Michigan State had their chances to put that game away and were up as many as 18 with less than 8 minutes to play. The Spartans really did themselves in by shooting just 17-30 from the free throw line. The Vols are hitting 78% from the charity strike and are going to be extremely motivated here off a crushing 71-73 loss at North Carolina last time out. Note that Tennessee beat Georgia Tech 81-58 at home, who knocked off Tennessee Tech by 15 earlier this season.
DAVE PRICE
Phoenix Suns +2
The New York Knicks have opened their current 5-game road trip with two narrow victories over the Kings by 3 and the Lakers by 6. I think they shouldn't be favored here against the Suns as asking them to win 3 straight on the road is asking a lot. The Suns will be hungry after their 1-point loss to the Pelicans last time out. Phoenix is 21-6-1 ATS in its last 28 games following a straight up loss. The Suns are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss as well.
JACK JONES
Atlanta Hawks -8
The Atlanta Hawks went through a brutal schedule where it seemed like they were playing every night. They lost 10 out of 11 games during that stretch. But they've gotten some time to rest and are back on track now, winning each of their last two games over Miami and Milwaukee to get it turned around.
Now the Hawks come in on three days' rest having last played on Friday in a 114-110 win at Milwaukee as 3-point dogs. Atlanta is now back to basically full strength health wise as Paul Millsap has returned to the lineup, and they clearly missed him during their skid.
The Orlando Magic also played a tough schedule and started to show signs of wearing down. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by 30 at home to Boston, by 21 at Charlotte and by 8 at home to Denver. I don't expect them to be too competitive here either against these well-rested Hawks who will be ready to go tonight.
The Magic are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. Orlando is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. Look for a big effort from Atlanta tonight as it covers this 8-point spread with relative ease.
SPORTS WAGERS
Vancouver +175 over CAROLINA
OT included. This line is just another example of the market being completely unaware of how competitive and improved the Canucks are. Another factor influencing the price here is that the Canucks will play their fifth straight on the road and has just one victory on this current trip to show for it. Add a 10–game losing streak to the Canucks resume this year and a horrible campaign a year ago and we can understand why the market wants no part of them. That said, we like the direction the Canucks are headed and the determination of their players. Vancouver is not an easy out. Its defense gets better almost every game and its offense is creating chances. The Canucks conclude their trip here and they’re not likely to be flat. They’ll end the trip either 2-3 or 1-4 and we trust they’ll be focused to end it on a good note. Aside from that, the Hurricanes are an appealing pooch but one of the more unappealing favorites in the league.
Carolina’s six extra-time losses is the worst mark in the league and they also had the league’s worst mark in that department last year. Thus, if this game goes into OT, give the Canucks a big edge because the ‘Canes rarely win in extra time. Cam Ward is playing better this year but he still can’t be trusted to win games but can be trusted to lose a bunch for Carolina all on his own. The ‘Canes outshot San Jose, 33-20 in their last game and lost 4-3. In three of his last six games, Ward has posted save percentages of .800, .868 and .857. Furthermore, Carolina returns home from a West Coast trip and it’s the 12th straight game in which they’ve had to travel to their next game. The Hurricanes have played six if their last seven on the road and nine of their last 11. If one of these teams is going to be flat or fatigued here, it is more likely to be Carolina than Vancouver and even if it’s not, Vancouver offers up too much value at this price against this host to ignore.
BUFFALO +106 over Los Angeles
OT included. The Kings have a great five-year pedigree that continues to influence the market’s opinion of them. That works to our advantage because none of those other Kings’ teams were as beatable as this one. L.A. is coming off a 4-1 victory over Ottawa. A five minute major in the first period resulted in two L.A. PP goals and that was the difference. Ottawa completely dominated the second period and probably would have went on to win it had the Kings not scored a lucky one with a half second left in the second to take the wind out of the Senators sail. The Kings had 19 shots on net the entire game. The game before that, L.A. had 22 shots on net in a 3-1 loss to the Hurricanes. The Kings have four wins in 12 road games and one was against the Coyotes. Only four teams, Arizona, Colorado, Detroit and New Jersey have created less scoring chances than the Kings. The Kings open up a nine-game trip here and if they win, good for them but we are in attack mode against the Kings because they continue to be priced like an upper echelon team when they are a very average one.
Since the return of Jack Eichel, Buffalo has picked up points in four of six games with three victories and an OT loss. The Sabres only two regulation losses over that span occurred against Washington and Boston and they outshot the Bruins, 36-33. They also went into Washington and lost in OT. The Sabres have an edge in goal with Robin Lehner’s .920 save percentage and they also have an offensive edge. The Kings have scored more goals than Buffalo overall but that is misleading because several of Buffalos’ key contributors were out for an extended period of time. Market perception on both of these teams is off and we’ll therefore step in and try to take advantage.
TORONTO -½ +160 over San Jose
Regulation only. We could play this one in regulation at a pick em but we would much rather have the Maple Leafs at this price to win it in regulation as oppose to hoping they win a skills contest should it get to that point.
San Jose is coming off a 4-3 victory over Carolina in a game they were clearly outplayed in. Prior to that, the Sharkies lost to both Anaheim and Ottawa. One cannot expect the Sharks to be off their game. If it happens, great, but we’re not counting on that for a second. What we know for sure is that San Jose is 6-8 on the road. There is also a great chance that Marc-Edouard Vlasic will sit this one out after being injured on Saturday. Vlasic out might draw some “no big deals” but it is a big deal. He is one of the best, if not the best stay at home defenseman in the league. He plays big minutes and is a huge stabilizing force on the Sharks blue-line. Without him, San Jose will be much easier to beat. If he does play (listed as doubtful), we’re still good with this wager.
Hockey is truly the most luck-driven sport of them all and there was more proof of that this past weekend when Colorado went into Montreal on Saturday and lost 10-1 before playing in Toronto on Sunday and winning, 3-1. The Maple Leafs dominated Colorado more than Montreal did the night before but the Leafs ran into a super-hot goaltender while Montreal ran into two cold ones. Toronto outshot the Avs, 53-29. The Leafs have lost four of their past five games but have absolutely dominated all four teams that they lost to. The Leafs will be rewarded soon because they are playing too good to not be and they’re also playing with heart and determination. Toronto’s 11-11-5 record is perhaps the most misleading mark in the NHL because it is a rare night when the Leafs don’t create almost twice as many scoring opportunities as their opponents. Toronto is 8-5-1 at home, which is also misleading, based on their dominating performances. The Maple Leafs are on the verge of exploding and whenever we can get them at home in an evenly priced game against anyone not named Pittsburgh, we are going with the best of it. We’re thrilled that the Leafs lose game they are supposed to win because it keeps the prices on them much lower than they should be and it’s something we intend to cash in on frequently starting here.
MINNESOTA -½ +124 over Florida
Regulation only. Devan Dubnyk versus Roberto Luongo is enough ammunition alone to warrant stepping in here but there’s plenty more. Florida is 5-11 on the road. They have one road win over their last six attempts, a 2-1 victory in Detroit in a game they had six PP opportunities and scored on none of them. That was one of two victories that the Panthers have recorded over their past eight games. The other one was at home on Saturday night against the Canucks in a game they held on for dear life before adding an empty netter to make the final 4-2. Why the Panthers get so much credit is a mystery but it could be because they were billed as this up and coming team last year with a ton of great, young talent. While that is true, they made some bad moves in the off-season and now the minor-league talent cupboard is pretty much bare. The loss of a couple of stabilizing defensemen has hurt them big time and the regression is not about to stop anytime soon. The Panthers still have some really good players up front but they are 3-8 against top-10 teams and 4-11 against top-16 teams. The Wild are a top-10 team in terms of points but they have played the fewest games in the NHL and they’re a top-5 team in terms of winning percentage.
Minnesota has won its last four at home by defeating St. Louis, Edmonton, Pittsburgh and Winnipeg. They beat the Penguins, 6-2, which is just another example of how good the Wild are when focused. Bruce Boudreau has some formula that makes his teams’ regular season juggernauts and he’s working his magic in Minnesota now. Boudreau has changed the Wild’s previously conservative and grind it out approach to an offensive oriented attack that stresses puck possession and the defensemen getting involved. Ask 500 hockey players which approach they prefer to play and 500 would instantly choose the latter. Guys like Charlie Coyle, Eric Staal, Ryan Suter, Nino Niederreiter, Jared Spurgeon and Matt Dumba are thriving in this system. Erik Haula is on the verge of thriving and you also have the usual suspects like Zack Parise, Jason Pominville, Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker and others. The Wild have 11 players with double digits in points. They are 10th in the league in goals per game and they’re getting better. They are first in the league in goals allowed and all we’re asking them to do here is win in regulation. We like our chances.
SPORTS WAGERS
Monmouth +150 over MEMPHIS
The Tigers are 7-2 and in first place in the AAC. Their two losses occurred against Ole Miss and Providence and they’re also a more recognized program than Memphis. The Tigers actually appeared in the NCAA Tournament or NIT for 15 straight years before missing both last year and now they’re just a small price at home over a MAAC team. At first glance, the chalk looks appealing but we’re here to tell you it is not. Memphis has gone in a new direction. The Tigers finished last season with an 8-10 record in AAC play and brought in Coach Tubby Smith to replace Josh Pastner. Tubby’s first order of business was to schedule winnable games against cupcakes and that he did. Through nine games, the Tigers strength of schedule ranks 338th out of 356 Division I teams. The Tigers are seriously lacking depth and there is not nearly enough talent coming in to replace the talent that left, which included Shaq Goodwin, Ricky Tarrant, Trahson Burrell and Avery Woodson. Woodson was far and away the teams’ best outside shooter. While none of them are huge losses individually, collectively they leave Memphis with very little depth and huge holes that will be exploited and we absolutely trust Monmouth to come in here and do exactly that.
Monmouth returns 15 of their 16 players from a team that won 29 games last year. The Hawks won the MAAC regular season title and beat some good non-conference teams along the way. Justin Robinson will be the best player on the floor here, as he’s one of the most dynamic scorers and playmakers in the country. He averaged 19.3 points, 3.7 assists and 2.2 steals, but even those impressive numbers do not tell the entire story. Robinson is a superb outside shooter. He’s very good at getting to the basket and finishing or finding a teammate and/or getting to the charity stripe. He went to the free-throw line 219 attempts and any time a player attempts 200 or more three-pointers and 200 or more free-throws, you know you have a great all-around scorer on your hands. Robinson is right back at it this year too. The Hawks are 8-2. They went into South Carolina against a ranked Gamecocks team and took them to OT before losing by a single point. They also played Syracuse and beat Cornell by 16 points. Monmouth has won seven straight. Last year, the Hawks with virtually this same team went on the road and defeated UCLA, #17 Notre Dame and Georgetown. They also played Dayton and USC. More battle tested, more talented and having played a tougher slate of games than the Tigers, Monmouth is the superior team here taking back a pretty sweet price. We’ll play it accordingly but we'll wait until later in the day to make it official as we suspect this number will move in our favor and thus, we might take 4 or 4½ points instead.
Big Al
Anaheim vs. Dallas
Pick: Dallas
Dallas comes into tonight's game on a 3-game losing streak, but it's 22-6 at home off a loss, as well as 23-7 off a loss by 2+ goals (at any venue). The Stars defeated the Ducks by a 4-2 count, here, back in October (the 4th straight win by the home team in this series), and I look for another win by the home team tonight.
Harry Bondi
MONMOUTH +3 Memphis
Monmouth has taken down a number of top teams over the last 2 years and should have been in the NCAA Tournament last March but were snubbed by the committee. They are 8-2 with their 2 losses coming to a good South Carolina team by 1 and they were crushed by Syracuse by 19 in their only poor performance of the year. Memphis has played well but they are one of the youngest teams in the country starting 3 sophomores a junior and senior. Monmouths experience wins it!
Scott Spreitzer
Cal Riverside at Santa Clara
Play: Santa Clara -5
UC-Riverside has been one of the least busy CBB teams so far this season with this being just their 6th game (1-4 SU). They were blown out 98-56 last time out, a November 30 game against UCLA, but have not played a game in December thus far. UCR is not only a bad team, but they're also likely to be a bit game-rusty. Santa Clara is 4-6 SU on the season, but snapped a 4-game skid last time out. The Broncos showed what they're capable of in a 69-61 loss to Arizona. SCU was within 3-points of the Wildcats with just over two minutes to go in the game. They're deliberate on offense, but should be able to fatten their stats against a Highlander team that allows 46% shooting. Santa Clara allows just 65 ppg and should have little trouble stopping one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, making less than 38% of their FGA. The Highlanders enter on a 1-6-1 ATS slide and we'll look to SCU to pick up the spread-covering win.
Ben Burns
Red Wings -220
Both teams are off a shutout loss last time out. However, those were very different. Detroit lost 1-0 and had time off since. Arizona got destroyed 7-0 last night and will now be playing its third game in four days. With the Coyotes now just 23-52 (-23.5) their last 85 against teams from the East and 0-4 this season when playing the second of b2b games, I fully expect the Wings to bounce back and improve to 7-3 against teams from the West.
Dave Essler
Cent. Arkansas/ Michigan Over 137
There are some better numbers out there at the moment - Central Arkansas is just a fast paced team that will keep running most of the night. They shoot three's but do get to the line more than you'd think, and shoot well from it. So, this will be a serious contrast in pace, but not style, as the Wolverines shoot a ton of three's as well. But, their perimeter defense is something than can be exploited, and with the massive length advantage they enjoy there could be some "and one's" thrown in for good measure. Central Arkansas as played some great teams (Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and Butler) so this is nothing but a thing for them, and in all three of those games they allowed 79 or more points. I expect that to be no different tonight - meaning we need Central Arkansas to get into the mid 50's - something they only falied to do once (47) in the opening game at Wisconsin. Just a reasonable chance to cash a ticket is all. Plus, if and when Michigan is way ahead, it might be tough for Beilein to slow down the bench players that rarely see the court.
Bob Balfe
Memphis -3.5
Monmouth is a good school with a lot of experience, but are limited when they play big level programs. The two losses this year were to South Carolina and Syracuse. Monmouth does not have the athletes to hang against players on Memphis. The Tigers are great at sharing the basketball and have a good assist to turnover ratio. This Memphis team will not beat itself. The only chance Monmouth has is to shoot a really high percentage from behind the 3 point line. Monmouth won’t get anything near the bucket with big Dedric Lawson swatting anything that comes his way.