Free Picks for Tuesday, December 6th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
SPURS AT TWOLVES
PLAY: SPURS -4
The data is compelling. Going back well more than one decade, the evidence clearly exists that teams forced to play with no rest don’t do especially well. Only five franchises have a winning overall record in this situation, and the ledger is more than ample enough to support the conclusion.
But the one franchise that might want to object to the change that’s going to take place would be the San Antonio Spurs. They’ve got the best no rest record in the NBA in that time frame, and it’s by a pretty substantial margin. Evidently, Greg Popovich knows how to handle this situation better than his coaching brethren.
The Spurs will be sans rest this evening as they head to Minnesota after squeezing out a one-point win at Milwaukee. The Spurs are already 4-1 so far this season playing with no rest.
Interestingly, while it’s just on what’s taken place so far in the current campaign, rest doesn’t seem to agree much with the Timberwolves. They’re sporting some really ugly numbers when having what’s supposed to be luxury of a little time off between games.
Minnesota has also been completely inefficient when playing off a win. The Timberwolves have yet to even win twice in succession this season, and have only covered one spread in six tries with supposed momentum on their side.
San Antonio will eventually lose a road game, but I like the chances of the Spurs moving to a perfect 13-0 away from home this season with a win tonight. Minnesota has some terrific young talent, but they just haven’t put it together yet and they’ve actually been pretty much as lousy at home as they have on the road. The number here is reasonable enough to support a play on the Spurs minus the points.
Sleepyj
Devils -110
I'll go with the Devils here tonight...My only concern for New Jersey has been the goal tending play they have offered up in the past week and a half....I feel a big OT win the other night against Nashville brings some positive vibes for this team in this one...A home game that is pretty big for them with the Canadiens on deck for Thursday...This one can get them up for that contest in my eyes...Devils are attacking rather well, so I expect them to get some goals against the leagues 25th rated goals against squad Canucks...Vancouver has played well over the last few weeks, but I feel new Jersey is in a good spot here...Price is a bit high, but feel ok laying the lumber here with the Devils...Devils are one of the leagues best killing the penalty and the Canucks are one of the leagues worst converting advantages into goals...This might be what the Canucks need to get a win here..I don't see it....
Bob Harvey
Magic vs. Wizards
Play: Under 198
The Wizards (6-11, 7-11 ATS)are slightly above break- even going 5-4 after opening the season 2-8. John Wall led seven players in double figures with 25 points in Monday's 118-113 win over the Brooklyn Nets, which salvaged the finale of a three-game road trip for Washington.
The Magic (9-12, 8-13 ATS) are 3-1 thus far on their five-game trip, including a victory at San Antonio and another Sunday against a Detroit team that had won five of six. It’s a marked improvement for Orlando which went winless at home against three sub-.500 teams including Washington.
Opponents are averaging 89.5 points against the Magic on the road trip and Serge Ibaka is a big reason for the improvement on the defensive end. The former OKC star was a big force against Detroit with a season high-tying four blocks and a season-high three steals. He also had 21 points on 9 of 11 shooting and has scored at least 16 in five of his last six games. One of those was a 19-point, eight-rebound, four-block effort in the 94-91 loss to Washington last month.
Orlando is 1-5-1 in the last 21 series meetings and 1-8-1 in the last meetings in Washington. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games but 0-5 vs. the number in their past five against the NBA Southeast Division.
The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings while the Magic are 4-0 the UNDER in their last four overall. Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.
Ricky Tran
New York vs. Miami
Play:New York +1½
No Home Court Advantage: The Heat are just 2-7 home in Miami this season.
Injuries: The Heat are dealing with injuries on several key rotation players while the Knicks are almost 100% healthy.
Form: The Knicks have won three straight and eight of their last 11. They're 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Heat are coming off back-to-back losses.
Mike Lundin
Phoenix vs. Utah
Pick: Utah -7
The Utah Jazz picked up a 107-101 win at the Los Angeles Lakers last night. They travel home to Utah to take on the Phoenix Suns here the next day, but I don't think fatigue will be a factor for Utah. This is a team that plays at the slowest tempo in the NBA, and they simply won't allow the Suns to drive up the tempo.
Phoenix has dropped three of its last four games and 138-109 at Golden State on Saturday. The Suns are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days rest while the Jazz are a solid 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on no rest.
The Suns are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings, and I don't see them covering the spread this time around either.
Power Sports
Phoenix vs. Utah
Pick: Utah
Regardless of how Utah performs Monday night in LA (facing the Lakers), it appears as if this line will be way too low. Most rating systems, including my own, would have the Jazz laying double digits here. The Suns, fresh off giving up 138 pts to the Warriors on Saturday (I had the Over!) are as bad as ever and I say lay the pts.
The Jazz are down some key contributors, such as George Hill and Derrick Favors. Not to mention, Alec Burks hasn't even suited up this year. But the team keeps on winning, as in five of their last six w/ the only defeat coming by a single point to Miami. Defensively, they have a clear edge here over Phoenix. While the Suns allow 115.2 PPG on the road, the Jazz allow just 91.8 PPG at home. Needless to say, these teams find themselves on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of defensive efficiency; Utah is fourth while Phoenix is 21st.
These teams met four times last year and Utah won every time. Three of the games were decided by double digits and the fourth was a nine-point game. Phoenix never scored more than 89 pts in any of the four games. The Jazz are more formidable this season and will have an even more distinct edge if Hill returns Tuesday night. Plus, they have Gordon Hayward, who averages a strong 23.1 PPG here in Salt Lake City. I know it was Golden State, but giving up as many points as Phoenix did Saturday is pretty unforgivable.
Zack Cimini
La Salle vs. Villanova
Pick: Villanova
New pieces in the Villanova starting lineup has not caused any regression from their championship team. Jay Wright's consistent use of a deep roster has kept his in-line youth primed for excelling roles the following year. One could argue they've become a better team with a smaller lineup versus having graduated big man Daniel Ochefu in the middle. G
Jim Feist
76ers at Grizzlies
Pick: 76ers
Both teams had to play last night and Philadelphia is loaded with young legs. The 76ers are 33-16-2 ATS against the Western Conference. Memphis is favored but not a strong offensive team, #27 in the NBA in points scored. And the 76ers are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Scott Spreitzer
Magic at Wizards
Pick: Magic
Orlando has a chance to wrap-up a very good road trip with a win tonight. They have already beaten Detroit and San Antonio during the 3-1 road stretch. The Magic have been slamming the door on the defensive end and we expect them to throw a wrench into the Wizards' system tonight. Washington is off a nice win on Monday, beating the Nets in Brooklyn, thanks to a 67-point second half. We doubt they'll find the same open looks against the Magic. Washington is also just 3-9 ATS when playing in the second of back-to-back nights and they have covered just one of their last five off a SU win. Meanwhile, the Magic are on a 4-1 ATS road run.
Oskeim Sports
Bradley at Ball State
Play: Bradley +8
Bradley head coach Brian Wardle knew his first year in Peoria would be a difficult one as the Braves entered the 2015-2016 campaign with the distinction of being one of only three teams in the country with ten or more freshmen on their roster. The Braves won three conference games and finished with a school-record 27 losses last season.
Wardle enters year two of his rebuilding project in better shape with five returning starters who spent last season improving upon their size, strength and overall fitness. Transfer Jojo McGlaston, who played two years at Utah State before sitting out last season at Diablo Valley College, has been impressive since arriving on campus.
The 6-5 swingman is averaging 11.4 points (51.5% FG%; 41.7% 3-PT%) and has joined sophomore Dwayne Lautier-Ogunleye in the backcourt. The most pleasant surprise for coach Wardle has been the rapid growth of freshman point guard Darrell Brown, who leads the Braves with 13.6 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 46.4% from beyond the arc.
Bradley's backcourt depth is significantly better this season with returnees Ronnie Suggs and Antoine Pittman, both of whom gained 10-12 pounds of muscle by dedicating themselves to the team's weight training program. With greater talent and depth in the backcourt, Wardle has been able to play at a faster pace this season.
The Braves already have two upset wins this season - taking down Wofford as 3.5-point underdogs and Eastern Illinois as 5-point underdogs. From a technical standpoint, Bradley is 11-4 ATS in its last fifteen games as an underdog, 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog and 10-1 ATS in its last eleven games following a loss.
In contrast, Ball State is a money-burning 16-37-2 ATS as a favorite, 6-21 ATS as a home favorite and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six non-conference affairs.
David Banks
Florida +7.5
Fifth-ranked Duke will take on No. 24 Florida in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The Blue Devils are coming off a 94-55 win over Maine in which they played without starting guards Grayson Allen and Frank Jackson. Both should be ready to go on Tuesday night.
The win over the Black Bears also marked the highly anticipated debuts of freshman Jayson Tatum and Marques Bolden. Tatum, the third-ranked player the Class of 2016, started the game against Maine and finished with 10 points. Bolden, who at 6-11 is a possible NBA lottery pick next year, came off the bench and added seven points.
The Gators are 7-1 thus far with the only loss coming to then No. 11 Gonzaga. Florida is deep and plays outstanding defense. KeVaughn Allen leads the team in scoring averaging 12.4 points a game. Canyon Barry, a 6-6 senior, adds 12.1 per game and 6-8 junior Devin Robinson averages 11.8 points and 5.6 rebounds. Allen, Barry, and Robinson are three of seven players who play at least 20 minutes for head coach Mike White.
Tuesday’s game marks the 17th meeting between the two schools. Duke holds a 12-4 advantage, which includes a win over the Gators in the 1994 national semifinal. Purdue faces Arizona State in the second Jimmy V Classic game.
Dave Cokin
Houston at Arkansas
Play: Houston +6.5
Second true road test for Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Houston sure didn't fare well in the initial journey, as they got run over in the second half at LSU. The Cougars might have been a little full of themselves in that one, as they went in as road chalk off five straight wins, four of them blowouts. I wouldn't think that will be an issue here as Arkansas is a known quantity and everyone knows they're tough at home. But I also think the Razorbacks are beatable. They've only faced two top 100 opponents so far. The Hogs came from way back to get past Arlington, and got drilled at Minnesota. Houston has also faced a soft early season schedule, with a pretty good Vermont the only quality opponent. The Cougars won that game at the wire. Off the stats, it looks to me like there's a slight edge overall on the Houston side, although it's pretty marginal. But the Cougars are receiving a good number of points here, and that's the tipping point for me in what looks like a close game.
Wunderdog
IPFW @ Notre Dame
Pick: Under 155
Notre Dame has gone UNDER 10 of its last 14 games as a favorite dating to last season, including seven of 10 as a home favorite. The Fighting Irish held North Carolina A&T to just 53 points in its win on Sunday and 30.2 percent shooting. Notre Dame is holding all opponents to just 36.6 percent from the field this season and 62.6 points. V.J. Beachem led the Irish with 19 points against the Aggies and Matt Ryan added 17 points. IPFW beat Miami Ohio 87-71 on Saturday with Bryson Scott and Mo Evans scoring 24 and 23 points, respectively. IPFW allows an average of 77.1 points per game and held Miami to a .377 field goal percentage.
Rocketman
Suns vs. Jazz
Play: Suns
The Phoenix Suns travel to Utah to take on the Jazz on Tuesday night. Phoenix is 6-14 SU overall this year while Utah comes in with a 13-9 SU overall record on the season. Phoenix is scoring 106.3 points per game overall this year, 108 points per game on the road this season and 101.8 points per game their past 5 games overall. Utah is allowing 102.8 points per game their past 5 games overall. Phoenix is 10-2 ATS last 12 games against a team with a winning SU record. Phoenix is 4-1 ATS last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Phoenix is 21-6 ATS last 27 games after a SU loss. Phoenix is 43-18-2 ATS last 63 games after a SU loss by 10 points or more. Utah is 1-4 ATS last 5 games against the Pacific division. Right now 79% of the bets coming in on Utah but the line is dropping so smart money is on the Suns. We'll recommend a small play on Phoenix tonight!