Bob Valentino
My free play for tonight is on the defending national champions, who are back on top of the college basketball world, as the No. 1 ranked team in the nation.
The Villanova Wildcats moved from No. 2 to No. 1 this week, after former No. 1 Kentucky lost to UCLA last weekend. Tonight the Wildcats will continue their domination in the Big 5, with a blowout win over city-rival La Salle, at the Palestra.
Villanova is now 8-0 after its 88-57 blowout win over Saint Joseph's on Saturday afternoon, in a Big 5 clash. Tonight the Wildcats will improve to 3-0 in the Big 5.
Overall, the champs own a record 16 consecutive Big 5 wins.
It's hard to side against senior Josh Hart, after seeing that triple-double against Saint Joe's, as he scored 16 points, yanked 11 rebounds and dished a career-best 10 assists. Hart now has 19 assists in the past two games. His game is complete, and is arguably the hardest working player every time he steps on the floor.
There is also senior forward Kris Jenkins, who popped for a team-high 20 points versus Saint Joseph's. I know the Explorers have won three in a row, but both Jenkins and Hart will make things difficult and will be hard to defend.
The Explorers, who are 0-4 against Villanova at the Palestra since 1999, are mired in ATS slides of 1-8 versus non-conference foes and 0-5 against the Big East.
2* VILLANOVA
Eric Schroeder
So check it, No. 20 Arizona is down to seven available scholarship players. I watched this team in person when it had just eight available scholarship players, a couple weeks back on Thanksgiving weekend. The Wildcats survived one scare, but then lost to Butler.
The team has resolve. So after losing to No. 8 Gonzaga on Saturday in Los Angeles, I think we'll see the same thing we saw when Arizona lost to Butler in the title game of the Continental Las Vegas Invitational. Five days later it trounced Texas Southern by 22 points at McKale Center.
Tonight, three days after their seven-point setback to Gonzaga, the Wildcats are going to take care of Irvine, regardless of being down yet another player - starting point guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright.
Look, Arizona's top three scorers are freshmen -- 7-foot forward Lauri Markkanen (17.8 points per game), guard Kobi Simmons (11.6) and wing Rawle Alkins (11.5) - and they're all maturing real quick this season, in having to shoulder the burden until sophomore guard Allonzo Trier makes his season debut.
Trier traveled with the team to Los Angeles last weekend, but still hasn't suited up for the 'Cats. He averaged 14.8 points last season. There is still no reason being given for the hold up, as the NCAA hasn't cleared him for Arizona to use.
The Anteaters, meanwhile, are coming off a 58-55 victory at Santa Clara on Wednesday, the same Santa Clara team Arizona 69-61 in Las Vegas on Thanksgiving. This is a major upgrade, though, and I don't see Irvine being able to contain Simmons or Markkanen.
The Wildcats, who beat the Anteaters 71-54 two seasons ago at McKale, have covered 21 of their last 31 when laying points in this range.
4* ARIZONA
Chris Jordan
A bonus freebie for you tonight, as I like Fort Wayne to get it done against Notre Dame. It's merely a line that stands out on the college card, and we're going to take a shot against the 23rd-ranked team in the nation.
Couple things to note with this game...
This is the same Fort Wayne (7-2) that beat then-No. 3 Indiana during Thanksgiving week. And with that win, the Mastodons have build confidence they can play with any team in the country. Whether they can or not remains to be seen, but they have the right attitude.
Also, Notre Dame (8-0) has an even bigger game on deck, as the Irish face the newest top-ranked team - defending national champion Villanova - on Dec. 10. Notre Dame won its first eight games by an average of 26.5 points, and could come in here overconfident, with 'Nova on the brain.
Finally, my last point, there's Fort Wayne forward John Konchar, a redshirt sophomore who is averaging 13.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.4 assists. He's registered four double-doubles for points and rebounds, and won't be easy to defend.
Let's play this bonus freebie selection, as I see it landing on single digits.
3* FORT WAYNE
Brett Atkins
Tuesday comp play comes in the NBA on the underdog Bulls as they play against the Pistons tonight.
Chicago was an outright loser last night at home to Portland, and they may well be an outright loser again tonight in Detroit, but I don't think this game is going to be a blowout by any means.
Detroit just had their 3 game winning streak snapped their last time out in a loss to Orlando. That loss came on the Pistons home floor, as Detroit has slumped to spread losses in 3 of their last 5 on their home floor.
The road team has won and covered each of the last 3 in this series, and I will back the road team to at least cover this one tonight in this Bulls-Pistons contest.
2* CHICAGO
Chris Jordan
Been a long time since anyone can claim the New York Knicks are a better basketball team than the Miami Heat, but such is the case nearly two months into the season.
Tonight, when the Knicks head to South Beach, the confidence level will be on high, and I think they should win this game outright. Granted, the line is only one, the Knicks have been playing much better than Miami behind veterans Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose, and budding superstar Kristaps Porzingis.
The Knicks (11-9) have won three in a row and eight of their past 11, and sit just one game out of third place. While two games over .500 is nothing to be excited about when it comes to the Eastern Conference - or all of the NBA for that matter - that and talk of third place is much better than recent Knicks teams.
Perspective: at no point over the past three-plus seasons have the Knicks been three games over .500. Tonight they will be, after topping Miami (7-13).
The Heat reside in 12th place in the Eastern Conference, and yes they're returning home after a 2-1 road trip, but the only bright spot I can see with this team right now is center Hassan Whiteside, who ranks first in the NBA in rebounds (14.9) and third in blocks (2.6).
Whitside averages a team-best 17.8 points on 56.2 percent shooting from the floor, but injuries are plaguing Miami right now, with small forwards Luke Babbit (hip flexor) and Justise Winslow (wrist) and shooting guards Dion Waiters (groin) and Josh Richardson (ankle) are expected to sit out.
Take the Knicks tonight.
5* KNICKS
Brad Wilton
Even though the Under is 5-1 the last 6 times the Suns and Jazz have faced one another, I will play Phoenix and Utah to land in the Over column this Tuesday night in Salt Lake City.
The Suns have a little offensive run brewing, as Phoenix has played each of their last 3 Over the total.
The Jazz also have a little offensive roll going, as Utah has played 5 in a row Over the total.
Phoenix has hit the century mark or better in 14 of their last 16 games, while Utah has been at triple-digits in 7 of their past 9 games overall.
Go with the Over tonight.
4* PHOENIX-UTAH OVER
TEDDY DAVIS
Bulls vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -6
Something just really seems off right now with this Bulls team and maybe it's because of Rondo causing something like he always does. Anyway the Bulls are playing their 2nd of a back to back and I don't trust them in this spot. The Pistons now have Reggie Jackson back and sure last game out they laid an egg, but that was coming off a hard road trip so was a major let down spot. This Pistons team is 7-3 @ home and 7-3 ATS @ home as well this season. I will lay the points here
BRANDON LEE
Bowling Green vs. Evansville
Play: Evansville -6
The Purple Aces are worth a look here, as I see them having no problem taking down Bowling Green by double-digits at home. Evansville has a great home court edge and the Falcons have yet to win a road game and will be playing on the highway for the 2nd time in 3 days, as they just played at Cincinnati on Sunday. The Falcons want to push the pace offensively, but don't play any defense and will struggle to score here against a stingy Evansville defense. We got a strong system backing a fade of Bowling Green. Dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who average 62 or more shots/game against a team that has held their opponents to 37% or less from the field in their last 2 games are a mere 43-85 (34%) ATS since 1997. That's a 66% success rate on laying the points with Evansville in this spot.
DAVE PRICE
76ers vs. Grizzlies
Play: 76ers +9
Both the 76ers and Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of back-to-backs. But the difference here is that Memphis played an overtime game against New Orleans last night, and it will affect them more because of it. The Grizzlies managed their 3rd straight win straight up and ATS with all three wins coming by 3 points or less and by a combined 6 points. I think it's time to fade them now, especially with how short-handed they are in missing MIke Conley, Zach Randolph, Chandler Parsons, James Ennis and likely Vince Carter. The youthful 76ers are much better equipped to handle these back-to-backs. Philadelphia is 38-21 ATS in its last 59 road games following 6 or more consecutive losses. The 76ers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 vs. Western Conference opponents. The 76ers are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, including an OT loss to the Grizzlies on November 23rd, so they'll be out for revenge as well.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Montreal vs. St Louis
Play: Montreal +120
You don't get many opportunities to have plus money with the #1 team in the league but that is the case here and that is certainly something that is worth a look. I am not saying that Montreal is the best team in the league but, as you can see from the standings, no team in the NHL has earned more points in the standings than the Canadiens have to this point. From a situational standpoint, the Habs are fully focused on this game. With their win over the Kings at LA on Sunday, the Canadiens are now 2-2 so far on this road trip and there has been a lot of internal discussion about wanting to end this 5 game road trip with a winning mark. They now are in St Louis to face a Blues club that is wrapping up a lengthy homestand. Even though St Louis is off of a loss, a 5th straight home game may not remedy the situation as the Blues have won just 1 out of 4 this season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on home ice. It is just a "complacency" issue that sometimes happens to teams on a lengthy homestand and the Blues have shown a tendency already this season to fall into that trap. The Blues beat the Habs 4-3 in St Louis in January but the Canadiens had won each of the 3 prior meetings and they have their eyes on revenge here. Montreal has won 5 of 7 this season (and 37 of 56 the last 3 seasons combined) when they are off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. Off of the big 5-4 win over the Kings, the Habs stay hot here.
ALEX SMART
Phoenix vs. Utah
Play: Under 203
Phoenix after getting clobbered by Golden State last time out, by a 138-109 count, will come into Utah wanting to play much better defense, and will be more methodical in their approach than their usual take no prisoners fast pace propensities. As we all know Utah bases their successes and failures on their ability to control pace and their ability to play strong defense. Utah ranks 1st in the NBA in defense and 25th in offense and 30th in pace. This combination of these obvious habits, will result in a tilt that I am betting sees these two sides combine to stay on the low side of the number. It must be noted that HC Snyder of the Jazz is 13-3 UNDER L/6 in home games versus lower tier sides - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, with the combined average score of those games ringing in at 186.8 ppg. Utah in their L/82 games as favorites have seen both themselves and their opponents combine for 187.8 ppg.
MIKE LUNDIN
Phoenix vs. Utah
Play: Utah -7
The Utah Jazz picked up a 107-101 win at the Los Angeles Lakers last night. They travel home to Utah to take on the Phoenix Suns here the next day, but I don't think fatigue will be a factor for Utah. This is a team that plays at the slowest tempo in the NBA, and they simply won't allow the Suns to drive up the tempo.
Phoenix has dropped three of its last four games and 138-109 at Golden State on Saturday. The Suns are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days rest while the Jazz are a solid 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on no rest.
The Suns are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings, and I don't see them covering the spread this time around either.
MATT JOSEPHS
St. Louis vs. Wichita State
Play: Wichita State -27
The Shockers have no mercy when it comes to beating up on bad teams. They already have home wins of 30, 37, 27, 37 and 46. The one concern is a road game at Oklahoma next, but they have enough talent to beat up on a terrible St. Louis squad. The Billikens have yet to play a true road game and has losses by 31 to Kansas State, 30 to BYU and 21 to Ball State. STL is 5-17 ATS the last three seasons in non-conference games. The Shockers have covered in 15 of their last 23 as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. They have also covered in 17 of their last 27 home games. Two years ago WSU won this game 81-52. I think we could see something along the same lines.
JIMMY BOYD
Florida vs. Duke
Play: Duke -7
I'll back the Blue Devils to win by at least 8 against the Gators Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden. Duke has jumped out to a 8-1 record, but we have yet to see the best of this team, as they have been missing some key pieces. Two of those returned in the Blue Devils last game, as 5-star recruits Marques Bolden and Jasyon Tatum both made their debuts against Maine. Not only do these two add even more talent to an already loaded roster, but they give Duke some much-needed depth, as they have been using a 6-man rotation early on.
I also think the Blue Devils have a big edge here, as they have already played a game at the Garden this season. They lost that game 75-77 to Kansas, blowing a 5-point halftime lead. I know Duke has a win over Michigan State, but that doesn't feel like a great win given the Spartans struggles early on. I see this as a statement game for the Blue Devils and I'm not buying the Gators being a serious threat here.
Florida is 7-1, but lost their biggest test to Gonzaga, a game in which they allowed the Bulldogs to do whatever they wanted offensively. Gonzaga shot 51.7% from the field and 43.8% from long-distance. The only reason that game wasn't a bigger blowout, is because the Bulldogs were sloppy with the ball, turning it over 16 times. Duke is going to take care of the ball here, as they are only averaging 10 turnovers in their last 5 games.
Blue Devils are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 against strong defensive teams allowing 64 or less points/game and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs top caliber teams who are outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game.
JACK JONES
IUPU-Indianapolis vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois -12
The Illinois Fighting Illini have been an undervalued commodity here of late. They are coming off their two most impressive wins of the season, and now they are only laying 12 points at home to an overmatched IUPUI squad tonight.
Illinois beat NC State 88-74 as 2-point favorites in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. It followed that up with an even more impressive 64-46 victory over VCU on a neutral court as 6.5-point dogs, covering the spread by a whopping 24.5 points in the process.
IUPUI is 1-5 on the road this season, losing five of those games by double-digits. It lost by 10 at Eastern Kentucky, by 23 at Marquette and by 14 at Illinois State. It also lost 58-61 at SIU-Edwardsville as 7-point favorites. Those four results alone show that Illinois is easily capable of covering this 12-point spread tonight.
Illinois is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the past three seasons. The Fighting Illini are 7-0 ATS when playing against a bad team with a win percentage between 20% and 40% over the past three seasons, winning these games by 20.7 points per game on average. The Jaguars are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. The Fighting Illini are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.