SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton -½ +140 over BUFFALO
Regulation only. We’ve been supporters of the undervalued Sabres many times this year but it is now time to switch gears for this one game. The Sabres are coming off four very intense games against Ottawa, the Rangers, Boston and Washington since the return of Jack Eichel. An energized Buffalo team picked up five out of a possible eight points during that stretch, which included an OT loss in Washington last night. The Sabres also have the Capitals on deck. After four intense games against East rivals and with Washington on deck, we could easily see the Sabres take a bit of a breather here. Playing its fifth game in a week, Buffalo’s energy and intensity levels figure to be lower here against a Western conference team that it rarely sees.
Edmonton is playing at a high level and will play its first game of trip here. Teams’ often play its best game of a trip during the first leg. Edmonton is just 5-4 over its past nine games but we’re more interested in the performances than the results. It is a rare day when the Oilers don’t create more chances than their opponents. In back-to-back losses to Arizona during this 5-4 stretch, the Oilers outshot the Coyotes by a combined 83-57. In their recent loss to the Maple Leafs, Edmonton held Toronto to 23 shots on net in a 4-2 loss. The Oilers could easily be on a nine-game winning streak or an 8-1 run and they would be much higher priced here if they were. The Oilers are playing a disciplined, attacking style and they’re good at it. Put a very good Oilers team in a good spot up against what figures to be a physically and mentally drained Sabres’ team and we like our chances.
Vancouver +169 over NEW JERSEY
OT included. The Devils are a well-structured, well-coached squad that is not easy to play against. What they lack in talent, they make up for with their commitment to playing the game the right way and taking care of the little details that win hockey games. However, on their best day, the Devils cannot be priced in this range because they’re just not good enough yet nor do they win enough games. New Jersey also returns home from a 1-3 four-game trip. They have just two wins in their last nine games and both victories were because they ran into weak goaltending. When the Devils concluded their four-game trip in Nashville on Saturday, they were outshot 42-22 in a 5-4 victory. When they defeated the Maple Leafs, also by a 5-4 count, they were outshot 31-30. So, while the Devils reputation is that of a sound defensive team, the numbers say otherwise and they also say that you still need talent on the blue-line to get the puck out and create chances the other way of which the Devils have very little. New Jersey has allowed four goals or more in seven of their past eight games and it is a 25th ranked puck possession team. The Devils are dead last in the NHL in scoring chances with 327, which is 20 chances less than the second worst team, the Arizona Coyotes.
The Canucks on their worst day are more difficult to beat than the Devils on their best day. Vancouver’s defense is getting better and more confident with each passing week. After an awful 10-game losing streak that is stuck in the market’s perception of them, Vancouver is 7-5 over their past 12 games with victories over Toronto, Minnesota, Dallas and the Rangers among others. They also took the Blackhawks to OT in Chicago during that span. Playing on the West Coast, not many outside of that region watch or pay attention to Vancouver. They had an awful season a year ago, they were falling apart the season before that and they had that aforementioned 10-game losing streak this year. However, pay no attention to any of that. The Canucks have shored up their defense and they are playing a better structured game than the Devils. They are also starting to score some goals, which makes coming to the rink a lot more enjoyable. The Canucks are the league’s most undervalued team that must be bet at this price on The Rock.
Calgary +117 over DALLAS
OT included. Who is it going to be for Dallas, Kari Lehtonen and his .892 save percentage or Antti Niemi and his .872 save percentage over his last four starts? Oh look, it is Kari Lehtonen after Niemi allowed 10 goals on 70 shots over his past two games. The point is that it does not matter because when you spot a tag with the Stars, you are going with the worst of it because their goaltending loses them games all the time. The Flames can relate because weak goaltending cost them about 40 games last year. Now Dallas returns home from a four-game trip to play one of the hottest offenses in the NHL.
The Flames have outscored their last three opponents by a count of 14-5. They continue to get outstanding goaltending from Plan B goaltender Chad Johnson and his .928 save percentage. Calgary is getting balanced production and it sure doesn’t hurt that Johnny Gaudreau is back and didn’t look like he missed a minute in his return to action against the Ducks on Sunday. There is a good feel surrounding the Flames these days. They are moving up the ranks in the standings and in the under the hood metrics. In five of their past eight games, Calgary has surrendered two goals or less and they catch the Stars here at precisely the right time. Good spot, good price and a great chance to cash a ticket.
SPORTS WAGERS
NJIT +18 -106 over MINNESOTA
The Golden Gophers are off to a hot 7-1 start with their only loss occurring against Florida State by eight, as an 8½-point dog. The Gophers also defeated Vanderbilt by four this past Saturday as a 2½-point choice. Minnesota is in first place in the Big Ten and they’re starting to get some attention. That’s precisely the time to step in and fade because they are not a first place team, they’ve played a slew of cupcakes and they’ve been at home for every game except one, which happened to be their only loss. That’s how Rick Petino operates and he passed it down to his son Richard, who coaches the Gophers. The strategy or manipulation of the system is to schedule games against very weak opponents and destroy them. Build up your resume so that people are talking and then see what happens in conference play. The Gophers are really not that strong a team. They lost 21 out of their last 24 games last year and their third, fourth, fifth and sixth leading scorers from last year are all gone. Kevin Dorsey left the program after his freshman campaign while Charles Buggs started 21 games and did a lot of the little things a team needs to win games that don’t show up on the stats sheet. As long as the Gophers keep winning and putting up skewed numbers, we are going to fade them often because right now they’re overpriced in a big way. There is a serious premium to pay to back a 7-1 Big Ten team playing an unknown Atlantic Sun team and if the Gophers cover here, good for them but we’re going with the best of it by taking back inflated points.
The Highlanders are 5-4. Only one of their four losses was by more than the points offered here on a day when they were cold as hell from the floor but they were only a 2½-point dog that day against Georgia State. In summarizing, the Highlanders have played nine times and have lost by these many points just once. NJIT played #17 Purdue tough in an 11-point loss at Purdue. They also played Utah State tough in a nine-point loss. NJIT does not have a signature win but neither do the Gophers. Damon Lynn and Tim Coleman on the same team is a dangerous duo that you might now want to give this many points to. Coleman was nominated for Atlantic Sun Defensive Player of the Year. As versatile as any player in the conference, Coleman finished 2015-16 ranked third in the ASUN in both steals per game and double-doubles, fourth in rebounds per game, fifth in blocks per game and three-point FG percentage and 11th in points per game. Dude is back at it this year. Meanwhile, Damon Lynn was selected to the College Court Report Top 100 Players in College Basketball for 2016-17. The Highlanders are not deep but they’re experienced and they can hang with lower level teams from major conferences. The Gophers are one such team that this guest can hang with.
Harry Bondi
RHODE ISLAND (-10) over Old Dominion
Rhode Island is a Top 40 team that lost two tough road games last week. Rams lost by 3 to tough Valparaiso and to in-state rival Providence by 1. URI comes back home tonight and takes their frustration out on Old Dominion who Rhode Island also owes for a 71-65 loss at Old Dominion last year. Monarchs are 0-2 vs the only top 100 teams they have played and get run over by the Rams.
Otto Sports
Texas vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan -11
Not an ideal matchup for the Texas Longhorns as they travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan tonight. These two squads hooked up last season in the Bahamas with the Wolverines winning 78-72. UT's starting lineup in the game featured four seniors and junior -- all of which are no longer on the team. This year's edition is littered with underclassmen who will likely struggle against Michigan's methodical brand of basketball. We've already witnessed multiple instances of UT's youth being exposed. Against veteran and fundamentally sound teams Northwestern, Colorado, and UT-Arlington, the Longhorns lost by margins of 19, 14, and 11. Those three squads, who aren't overly athletic, outrebounded Texas by a combined margin of 122-98. Texas fired back last Friday with a 77-68 win over Alabama; a game that was deadlocked heading into the final five minutes before UT pulled away. With such a young squad, one that has struggled on the offensive end (27% 3-pt, 65% FT), forcing turnovers and thus creating high percentage looks would go a long way. In those four games, the turnover battle was nearly dead even. Now they go on the road and face a team that prides itself on taking care of the basketball and keeping opposing teams out of transition. The Wolverines already have two impressive blowout wins over Marquette and SMU. They ran into a buzzsaw against South Carolina -- the Gamecocks boast one of the best stop units in the country. And Virginia Tech got the better of the Wolverines thanks to a 21-7 free throw attempt advantage. Not many if any advantages for the road side here as we fire with the home chalk.