Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, February 14th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

BOISE STATE AT NEW MEXICO
PLAY: BOISE STATE +1.5

Revenge for Boise State, and the Broncos have been close to exceptional when this is the case. They’re 12-3 in rematches over the last four seasons, and this will be their first such scenario this MWC campaign. That first meeting was a disaster for Boise as they got blown out at home, and the final 81-70 margin was misleading as they were way out of the game by halftime.

For whatever reason, this year’s Broncos have been road warriors with just one away loss in league play, and I have them as the better squad here. Tim Williams is still evidently out for New Mexico as head coach Craig Neal called him “week to week” yesterday. The Lobos did get Dane Kuiper back last game which is a plus for their backcourt.

The Mountain West is a real crapshoot this season with no dominant teams, and that has made ‘capping games in this league pretty dicey, at least for me. But i like the revenge angle, and for what it’s worth, I’d rather have Leon Rice than Neal if this is tight at the finish. Boise is my play.

Scott Rickenbach

Kings vs. Lakers
Play: Over 217

This total has been falling since it first opened up and has gone from 218.5 to 217. Not a huge move but certainly still offers up a little additional line value in what is a nice spot. Lakers head coach Luke Walton made some lineup changes 3 games ago and the results have included a pair of wins as well as 3 straight overs! With the Lakers at home and playing with confidence look for their high-scoring ways to continue. Overall, it has been a 5-1 run to the over for the Lakers who have averaged 113.3 points per game during this 6-game run. They'll host a Kings team that also rolls into LA with plenty of confidence as Sacramento has reeled off 3 straight wins and has victories in 4 of its last 5. The Kings have scored at least 103 points in 11 of their last 12 games and the over was 7-4 their last 11 before their win over the Pelicans Sunday night stayed just under the total. The over is 5-1 in Lakers home games where they are a favorite of 3 points or less. Also, the over is 10-2 this season in Los Angeles games when they enter having played each of their three prior games on the road. As for the Kings, the over is 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Look for more of the same tonight.

Scott Spreitzer

Toronto vs Chicago
Play: Toronto-7

Chicago has allowed triple digits in nine straight games, including 115 or more in four of their last five. A handful of players are doubtful tonight, most notably, Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade. Butler scored 42 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in a Chicago win over Toronto last month. The Bulls are in a tough situational spot, coming home after a six-game, 12-day road trip with just a day off between the final road game and tonight's contest. The Raptors will look to snap a two-game skid with DeMar DeRozan playing his fourth game since coming back from injury. DeRozan has averaged nearly 30 ppg in his first three games back and goes virtually unmatched tonight. The Bulls have covered just four of their last 14 off a road trip of at least seven days and they have covered just five of their last 19 when playing on one day rest.

Jim Feist

Ohio St vs. Michigan St
Play: Under 142

A Big 10 rivalry games and both teams know how to bring the defense. Ohio State's offense clicks at home but they head out on the road into a hostile environment. Michigan State is #12 in scoring in the Big 10, #13 in free throw shooting. The Under is 5-2 in the Spartans last 7 home games.

Matt Josephs

Colorado State vs. Wyoming
Play: Colorado State +1

Colorado State continues to be underrated by Vegas and we'll continue to take advantage. They've won six of their last seven and have covered in all but one road game this season and that was a rare rough outing at Fresno State. The team doesn't shoot the ball that great but has a great trio in Gian Clavell, Emmanuel Omogbo and Prentiss Nixon. Wyoming is hard to figure out having lost three of five and four of their last seven games. They've fallen at home already to Boise State and Nevada as small dogs in those games. They are led by Justin James and his 14.8 points per game. Wyoming has dominated this series as of late, but I think times are going to change in 2017. These two teams will play twice in two weeks and I may be on CSU in both.

Braxton Myles

Penn State vs. Nebraska
Play: Penn State +4

Penn State is 6-6 ATS this season on the road in a very tough conference and are 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. With Penn State 3-1 SU against Nebraska over the last 3 seasons they are the smart play in this one. Nebraska is 4-6 ATS at home this season and are 12-23 ATS when playing against a with a winning record after 15 or more games in the last 3 seasons.

Red Dog Sports

Bristol City vs. Leeds
Play: Leeds +100

Leeds is #5 in the league at 17-11-3 (+10 goal difference) while Bristol City is #20 and sits 9-16-5. Leeds is off a 2-0 loss at home but won previous matches at their place by scores of 2-0, 1-0, 3-0, 1-0, 2-0 and 2-0. I hope to see Leeds win by a goal on Tuesday in England Championship action.

Marc Lawrence

Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -8

Edges - Spartans: 6-1 ATS in this series; and 8-1 ATS as favorites with 2 days of rest. Buckeyes: 4-11 ATS versus .600 or less opposition, including 1-6 ATS with foe off a win. With MSU head coach Tom Izzo having cashed more than 60% winning tickets in his career when seeking revenge after Game 20 of the season, we recommend a 1* play on Michigan State.

LV Traders

Colorado State at Wyoming
Pick: Colorado State

February is the month of coaching and familiarity... both angles give a solid edge to CSU. Allen Edwards has completely altered the Wyoming style of basketball... this team is run and gun. The up-tempo style caught opponents off-guard early in the season but the entire Mountain West knows what to expect and the Cowboys are spent. Larry Eustachy knows the Wyoming roster and he knows exactly the tempo it will try to create. Eustachy is one of the best in the business and it's these situations that make him so great. Bet Colorado St.

Ben Burns

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs
Play: Maple Leafs -135

The Leafs could really use a win and this should be a good spot to get one. A victory will snap a 2-game slide and get them back to .500 at home. With a difficult road game at Columbus on deck, winning tonight becomes even more important. Added motivation stems from the fact that the Isles just beat the Leafs (6-5) last week. While the Isles have played a little better of late, they're still 7-15 on the road. Look for the revenge-minded Leafs to get some payback.

Anthony Michael

Texas +2

Texas has been covering well on the road going 6-2 ATS away from home while the Sooners have struggled on their home court at just 3-7 ATS. The Longhorns have covered 18 of their last 26 conference games and they will be more than happy to beat their struggling arch-rival on their home court.

Carmine Bianco

Barcelona at Paris Saint-Germain
Play: Barcelona +131

I believe Barcelona should win both leg 1 and leg 2 of this knockout stage tie. PSG have been great at home but this is a step up in competition they'll face. During CL group stage play it was home draws against Arsenal and Ludogrets that cost them dearly and this Spanish side's attack is better 10 fold. The injury to captain and leader of their backline Thiago Silva will hurt PSG Tuesday I believe.

Nelly

Richmond at George Mason
Play: Richmond Pk

George Mason hadn’t won consecutive conference games until putting together three straight wins in February including a notable win at Davidson. The Patriots barely held on at home vs. lowly Fordham last weekend however and sit 0-2 vs. A-10 bottom-feeder Saint Louis this season as erratic certainly describes this squad. Other than a win at Penn State George Mason didn’t do a lot in non-conference play as the 17-8 record is inflated and with four of the six remaining games in A-10 play coming against the top four teams in the league it seems likely that the Patriots will slide down the stretch. Richmond is only a game out of the A-10 lead despite a lesser overall record and the Spiders are 4-2 in road games in conference play with the losses only coming against the two co-leaders in the league. George Mason hasn’t had to play either of those teams on the road yet this season as the conference strength of schedule at this point rates far weaker than Richmond’s slate. Richmond has top five numbers in A-10 play on both offensive and defensive efficiency while George Mason is outside the top five on both counts and one of the lesser defensive squads in the league. This is a second straight road game ahead of a huge home date with VCU Friday but the Spiders know the importance of this game, especially in a revenge spot after a home loss in this matchup in January. Richmond shot 36 percent in that game but nearly rallied back from a 23-point deficit in a five-point loss as that type of slow start is unlikely tonight.

Wunderdog

New York @ Toronto
Pick: Under 6

The N.Y. Islanders are on a winning run keyed by defense, allowing five goals the last three games. Toronto is home but stumbling offensively, losing two straight at home scoring one goal each time. They were home favorites in both, as well. Top overall pick Auston Matthews leads the team with 25 goals, but has been limited to just six points in his last 12 games. In the last eight games the team has scored one goal four times, part of a 7-3-1 run UNDER the total. The Maple Leafs are also 11-3 UNDER after scoring two or fewer goals in their previous game.