ASA
Raptors / Bulls Under 2005.5
The value here is on the UNDER as the Total on this game is just slightly lower than the last meeting (207) and the Bulls are without their two top scorers (Butler & Wade). Chicago has had issues scoring of late and without those two big guns it will be more difficult here. Toronto is playing much slower of late (over last 5 games 3 less possessions per game) and won’t put up gaudy offensive numbers in this game.
Dave Essler
Eastern Michigan -140
You can buy to -2 if you want. They beat Ohio in Ohio this season and are going to do it again. The old adage about taking the home team on a revenge mission isn't quite as simple as it once was. That stuff's built into the line more often than not, whereas it didn't used to be. What we're seeing here is an EMU team that's somewhat better than advertised and an Ohio team that perhaps less than their record - due to a huge non-conference scheduling difference. Since beating Buffalo on the road back in early January, Ohio hasn't won a decent road game. They've won a few, but Ball State is the best road win since, and that was a two-point affair last week. Ohio is going to live and die by the three-ball, and most know I like to fade those teams away from their own gym. EMU is the #1 team in the conference at forcing turnovers, they've got a huge length advantage, which will show up big on offense - especially as they get the home calls and live at the line. They are a very good FT shooting team - Kamisnksy (Ohio) has been banged up, but playing, and he can't win it alone (IMHO) - if he gets in foul trouble, they're REALLY in trouble - and since losing Antonio Campbell Ohio is a 4-4 team. Can't take them here.
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play is to grab the very generous impost the Bulldogs of Mississippi State are getting from the Bulldogs of Georgia.
Georgia is 9-4 straight up at home, but just 2-7 against the spread at the cavernous Steg where the crowds are generally sparse.
Miss State has dropped each of their last 4 on the SEC road, but they have played competitive hoops in each of their last 3 games contested, and that includes a double-digits comeback win at home over Tennessee.
Series numbers show Georgia on a 5 game win and cover streak, but the road team does stand at 6-2 against the spread the last 8 series meetings.
Look for the home Dawgs to get the win, but for the road Dogs to get the cover.
Miss State plus the points keeps things close.
2* MISS STATE
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Cleveland Cavaliers in Minneapolis, against the Minnesota Timberwolves. And to address this immediately, NO - I don't care about Kevin Love or his absence. In fact, this team might better long-term without him. Personally, I believe the team should trade him to the Knicks for Carmelo Anthony.
So as the Cavaliers prepare to be without Love for about six weeks, the journey begins with a win over the forward's former employer. It should be nothing different than on Feb. 1, when the Cavaliers had no problem without Love in a 125-97 win over these T'Wolves.
Besides, Minnesota is missing guard Zach LaVine and his spectacular array of dunks, plus forward Adreian Payne.
The Cavaliers have a chance to enter the All-Star Break with the best record in the Eastern Conference, so I suspect we'll see them at their absolute best tonight, proving they can play without Love.
Lay the small road number here
1* CAVALIERS
STEVE JANUS
Cavs vs. Wolves
Play: Cavs -3½
Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points. This system is 29-4 (88%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons.
BRANDON LEE
Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -6½
I was on the Spartans in their win and over over the Hawkeyes on Saturday and I see a very similar outcome here against the Buckeyes. I actually think Michigan State is a bit undervalued right now. Despite their record not being what you would expect, this is still a very talented team and it's no secret that Izzo coached teams keep getting better as the season progresses. Not that the Spartans need extra motivation, I like they they will be out for revenge from a 67-72 loss at Ohio State. Big difference in home/away splits here. Michigan State is 11-2 at home compared to 4-8 on the road, while the Buckeyes are 3-7 on the road compared to 12-4 at home.
TONY KARPINSKI
Tennessee vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -14
Kentucky has not been playing great on the road in their last several games, but this is the kind of game they need and at home I think they'll be fired up. De'Aaron Fox has been scoring and passing great, and he cannot be taken off the dribble right now. Matched up vs the less talented and poor Gs of Tennessee won't be a big problem.
Tennessee is lacking some team chemistry, and their PG Jordan Bone can get into a bit of too one on one at times, and the team has suffered because of this. Bone needs to trust the right guys and they just don't see that on a steady enough basis. Tennessee has struggled vs quick teams, and the Wildcats will strike with their fast paced attacking game.
DAVE PRICE
Texas / Oklahoma Under 139
Expect a low-scoring affair tonight between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns in their second meeting of the season. The Sooners are now without their best player and floor general in Jordan Woodard for the remainder of the season. That will hamper them offensively, just as it did when he missed time earlier this season. Oklahoma has been held to an average of just 60.2 points per game on 37.3% shooting in its last five games overall, not once reaching 70 points. Texas is 0-11 in all road games this season, scoring just 62.7 points per game on the season. Oklahoma is 34-17 UNDER in its last 51 when revenging a same season loss. The UNDER is 8-3 in Longhorns last 11 road games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Sooners last 8 home games.
ART ARONSON
Kings vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers -2
If you like looking at scheduling and “situations” to base your picks, then we’d recommend that you take a second look at the Lakers in this particular matchup. And that’s because after a 4-1 homestand, which included victories over the Warriors, Celtics, Hawks and most recently a 105-99 win over the Pelicans on Sunday, we believe that the visiting Kings are primed for a letdown here. The Lakers won’t be in the postseason, but the club isn’t rolling over either and comes in off a 122-114 road destruction of the Bucks. Also note that LA plays with revenge here after falling 116-92 in the most recent matchup between the clubs back on December 12th.
JIMMY BOYD
Tennessee vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -14
I'm surprised the public is on Tennessee in this spot. Sure the Volunteers knocked off Kentucky at home 82-80 back on 1/24, but that was a perfect spot for the Vols to pull off the upset. They caught the Wildcats off a huge home win over SEC powerhouse South Carolina and had a massive showdown on deck against Kansas. That was Kentucky's first SEC loss of the season and I don't think they are going to take that defeat too kindly. The biggest problem for Kentucky has been the ability to stay focused after creating huge leads, but I don't think they will have any problem being locked into for a full 40 minutes tonight at home in a nationally televised game on ESPN.
I also think Tennessee is in a bit of a tough spot here. Sure they will be excited to play Kentucky, but I don't think they will be as jacked up as they were in the first meeting at home. The Volunteers are also coming into this game off a crushing home loss to Georgia this weekend. Tennessee let a 14-point 2nd half lead slip away in a 75-76 loss.
The Wildcats are 9-2 ATS under Calipari when revenging a close loss of 3 points or less and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games when listed as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points.
JACK JONES
Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -4
The Virginia Tech Hokies are in a very tough spot here. They have had only one day off since a huge 80-78 upset victory in overtime over Virginia on Sunday. They will be fatigued and not full prepared to face Pitt today, plus it's a huge letdown spot for them off that big win.
Pitt last played on Saturday in an 80-75 home victory over Syracuse. That followed up an 83-72 win at Boston College, so the Panthers are improving. And that extra day of rest will make a big difference here for the home squad with such a short turnaround.
The Panthers are a solid 10-4 at home this season, while the Hokies are just 2-5 in true road games. The home team has won six straight meetings in this series. Pitt is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with VA Tech, winning by 19, 5, 19 and 19 points.
Pitt is 7-1 ATS off three straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or fewer turnovers this season. The Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
MIKE ANTHONY
Notre Dame vs. Boston College
Play: Notre Dame -10.5
Notre Dame has been putting up 79/game, so far, playing with patience and a knack for knocking it down from behind the arc, they can make teams lose their minds playing tight hands up defense - as their opponents 42% shooting has shown. Especially their frontcourt, who can defend on the ball, with the best of them. Head Coach, Jim Christian, is going to want to see more fight from this Boston College squad, as they have been in a spiral. They will be looking to get some extra possessions, get their time management, and his backcourt to make smarter plays. But the Irish will have something to say about that, on the road, where they have been still very formidable. Notre Dame wins by 15 or more points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo -1½ +433 over OTTAWA
Ottawa is coming off a 3-0 victory over the Islanders on Saturday in Craig Anderson’s return to the net. The Senators were the second best team on the ice in that game. Prior to defeating the Islanders, Ottawa defeated Dallas 3-2 and once again were the second best team on the ice. Prior to those two undeserving victories, Ottawa was outscored 10-0 in back-to-back losses. Ottawa ranks 23rd in Corsi For %, which puts them in the same range as teams like Detroit, Colorado and Dallas. There are some other things to consider too. After sitting for weeks and dealing with a family crisis, Craig Anderson played on Saturday and shut out the Islanders, 3-0. A repeat of anything close to that is highly unlikely. When Anderson left earlier in this year and came back under similar conditions, he allowed seven goals in his return. Anderson has played one game since December 5. It’s also worth noting that the Senators have the Maple Leafs on deck.
The Sabres have been in the hockey news over the past few days after hothead goaltender, Robin Lehner publicly called out some teammates after Monday’s 4-2 loss to Vancouver. The media blows everything out of proportion so we’re not in the least bit concerned about it. Buffalo is a very tight-knit bunch and Robin Hood is a part of it. Put no weight on Lehner losing his cool because it happens nearly every day and again, social media catches wind of something and blows it way out of proportion. More importantly is that Lehner has thrived against his former team. In 355 minutes of action against the organization that took him in the second round of the 2009 entry draft, Lehner has stopped 172-of-179 shots to compile a sizzling 1.18 goals against average and a spectacular .961 save percentage. Buffalo has scored nine goals on the Sens in the past two meeting this season and they’ll now face a still rusty Craig Anderson. It may also surprise you to learn that only seven teams in the entire league have a record above .500 against top-10 competition. Not even the Capitals are above .500 against top-10 teams but Buffalo is. The Sabres are 12-10 against the league’s elite while playing the fourth toughest schedule in the league. The Sabres remain an undervalued team.
We are breaking this down into two bets. We’re playing the Sabres -1½ +433 for 1 unit and +149 for the other unit to make up our traditional two-unit wager.
Therefore the bets are as follows:
Buffalo -1½ +433 (Risking 1 unit)
Buffalo +149 (Risking 1 unit)
Anaheim -1½ +397 over MINNESOTA
Minnesota just keeps on keepin on. The Wild are coming off a 6-3 victory over Detroit. They have not lost consecutive games since late November, which is a remarkable span of 32 games. However, we have to question if they’re really as good as their record suggests because the numbers say no. The Wild have received tremendous goaltending from Devan Dubnyk most of the year but like Carey Price, puck luck is starting to even out for Dubnyk. Dubnyk has allowed three goals or more six times over his past 10 starts. The Wild give up over 30 shots against per game so the Ducks figure to have their fair share of chances here. Minnesota is not a great possession team either, as they rank 24th in the league in Corsi for. The Wild have only outshot six of their past 20 opponents so they’re winning because their goaltender is usually better than the opposition’s. What the Wild are doing is not unlike what Montreal does when Price is on fire. Minnesota is a quality team but they are NOT even close to being a dominating one.
The Ducks were down 3-0 in Washington on Saturday before the fans were just getting settled in after the National Anthem. Anaheim clawed its way back and had the game tied 4-4 before a late Capitals goal did them in. Still, one has to like the way the Ducks are playing lately. Randy Carlyle changed up his forward lineup for the last two games and the Ducks scored nine times in those two games. In a 4-1 loss to the Rangers prior to those nine goals in two games, Anaheim outshot New York 44-20 and completely dominated the entire game. The Ducks will conclude a six-game trip here in which they have just one victory (1-3-1) but they absolutely deserve better. Now we have a case of results influencing the market. Anaheim is Minnesota’s equal every day of the week and then some but the records do not reflect that. Furthermore, the Wild are 2-0 this year versus Anaheim and that, too, influences the price. It all works in our favor, as the Ducks figure to leave nothing on the table in their quest to finish off this current road trip on a good note. Devan Dubnyk has come back down to earth so this looks as good a time as any to start taking back inflated prices against the Wild and we’ll put that to the test here.
Again, we are breaking this down into two bets. We’re playing the Wild -1½ +397 for 1 unit and +138 for the other unit to make up our traditional two-unit wager.
Therefore the bets are as follows:
Anaheim -1½ +397 (Risking 1 unit)
Anaheim +138 (Risking 1 unit)
SPORTS WAGERS
NEBRASKA -4½ over Penn St
The Nittany Lions are coming off two straight wins, including a victory over #23 Maryland just a week ago. Penn State is a young team that carries no seniors and just one upperclassman. While the future looks bright for PSU, their play this season has been inconsistent. The Nittany Lions are 6-7 in conference play and have not won more than two games in a row this season. They've also struggled on the road recently, dropping three of their last four games away from Happy Valley. Penn State appears to be in good form but with the eyes of the betting world now on college hoops, their recent form could have the Nittanty Lions overvalued here. To someone watching from the outside for the first time this season, that big win over a top-25 team looks impressive. Don't forget, this is the same team that lost at home to last place Rutgers the game prior. Penn State had two days of fiery practices and put everything into that Kansas game after being embarrassed against the Scarlet Knights. It was the Nittany Lions' last regular season shot at a top-25 team. When the game was over the players and fans celebrated like they just won the NCAA Tournament. Subsequently, Penn State had just enough in the tank to finish off the second worst team in the conference last time out at Illinois but a letdown here is almost inevitable.
The Cornhuskers have dropped two straight, but one of those defeats came in overtime to #9 Wisconsin last Saturday. It was another tough luck loss for Nebraska. The 'Huskers have been on the wrong side of three one-point games in conference play this season. On paper, it looks bad for Nebraska, as they've won just one of their last nine games. Despite their less than stellar results, the 'Huskers are being asked to cover 4½ points against a Penn State team that appears to be in much better form. That raises a red flag and forces us to take a look at the favorite. Nebraska has played the toughest schedule in the country according to the NCAA. Since inserting center Jordy Tshimanga into their lineup four games ago, Nebraska is +7.8 on the boards. It's an impressive stat when you consider two of those teams in Wisconsin and Purdue rank in the top-10 nationally. While the wins haven't been there, the 'Huskers are playing much better than their record indicates and they are on the verge of a big win. With the oddsmakers posting the host as a unappealing -4½-point choice, this is very likely that big
Larry Ness
Toronto vs. Chicago
Pick: Toronto
The Raptors have been struggling but isn't wasn't too long ago that the team seemed capable of challenging the Cavs for the East's No. 1 seed. However, the Raptors limp into Chicago losers of 10 of their last 14 games. They have currently fallen four games back of the Celtics in the Atlantic Division and overall in the East, are tied with the Hawks at 32-23, for the conference's fourth-best record (Toronto would lose the tie-breaker right now, meaning the Raptors would be the East's no. 5 seed!).
The Bulls own their fare share of woes too, dealing with significant nagging injuries to their two-best players in Butler (24.5-6.4-4.9) and Wade (19.1), along with also having role players Nikola Mirotic (9.0 & 5.1) and Paul Zipser (4.1 & 2.3) listed as day-to-day as well. Butler has sat out four of the last five games with heel and head contusion issues, with head coach Fred Hoiberg telling reporters after Sunday's loss that he isn't certain if shutting Butler down for games this week against the Raptors and Boston Celtics is the solution. As for Wade (wrist), he's missed two of the last three games.
The good news is that Chicago actually owns 10 straight wins over Toronto but are the Bulls in any shape to take on this high-scoring team (Raptors average 109.1 PPG to rank 5th) right now? The Bulls dropped the final three games of their recently completed six-game road trip by margins of 31, 18 and 28 points! The Toronto backcourt of DeRozan (27.9) and Lowry (22.8-4.7-7.0) is an All Star duo but other than center Valanciunas (12.4 & 9.9), steady contributions by the remaining roster have been few and far between.
The Raptors watched (helplessly?) as they squandered a 16-point fourth quarter lead in a 1012-101 home loss Sunday to the Pistons but a strong bounce-back against the injury-riddled Bulls is in the cards. Lay it with the road favorite.