Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Tuesday, February 21st, 2017

DAVE COKIN

OILERS AT LIGHTNING
PLAY: OILERS +105

One of the indicators that a team is pretty good is when they’re able to find ways to win even when they don’t play especially well.

I’m not about to crown the Edmonton Oilers as the team to beat in the West, but there’s no doubt in my mind this team is heading in the right direction. The Oilers were far from outstanding in each of their last two games. But they managed to get two points at home against the Flyers, and then got two more on Saturday as they opened a road trip with a win at Chicago.

The Oilers of the past would almost certainly have lost each of these games. But this Edmonton entry found a way to come out on top each time, and that to me is a sign of a team that’s really starting to figure things out. I also like the fact that while the team was happy to get the wins, they seemed eager to point out that their play has to improve if the wins are going to keep on coming.

That attitude has me looking Edmonton’s way as they continue their journey tonight with a stop at Tampa Bay. The Lightning are returning home off an okay four-game road trip where they went managed to garner six important points.

The Lightning have a favorable schedule the rest of the way with 15 of 24 games at home. They’re really going to have to make the most of that advantage if they’re to rally to make the playoffs. I just don’t see that as a likelihood as the Lightning have simply not been able to find that desired level of consistency all season.

As for tonight, it’s advantage Edmonton from a situational standpoint, and I’d rather have the team finding ways to win games as opposed to one that has done more of the opposite. I’ll side with the Oilers tonight.

Sleepyj

Ottawa +101

I can't trust the Devil's one bit even at home...These two teams are night and day apart from each other...This might be the squarest play on the board, but I'm almost certain we are getting the best line possible....Ottawa will go off as the favorite for this contest so we are getting some good value here....Mark Stone took a nasty hit and is listed as day to day...That's a big miss for Ottawa if he in fact sits out....I won;t be shocked if he plays or he doesn't...Still the Sens have plenty and will have the services of Craig Anderson in the net I would assume.....Condon could go on short rest and he shut out the Devils just a few days ago in New Jersey...I'm comfortable with either tonight...Schneider will be back in net tonight for sure....Devil's has a tough test this weekend though and i'm worried they are a little beat up and tired...Back to back games against the Islanders on Saturday and Sunday....They also won the contest on Sunday, so maybe they are a bit fat and happy here...Plus the Devil's get the Rangers on tap next a team they haven't beat all season...Small Play for me...NHL this year is 6-2...I don't make many plays, but this one gets the nod tonight.

Scott Spreitzer

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State -2

. The Bulldogs started strong this season, but have been dropping a lot of games of late, including four in a row. However, they have produced positive results for the bankroll, cashing 14 of 23 tickets this season, including current 3-0 & 9-4 ATS runs. Miss State has dropped two in a row to Ole Miss, including an 88-61 butt-kicking last month. But the Bulldogs did win last time the teams met on this floor in January 2016, and we do like the fact Ben Howland's team is on a 12-2 ATS run the last two years in revenge of a road loss. Mississippi State is stingy on their home floor where they allow just 67 ppg and will face a Rebel squad that shoots just 40.8% on the road, while allowing over 77 ppg. I also don't care for Ole Miss' shot creators. Deondre Burnett is their best assist man, but has almost as many turnovers (76) as assists (82). MSU's I.J. Ready & Lamar Peters are both more trustworthy when handling the ball than anyone on Andy Kennedy's roster and Ready missed last month's meeting. Miss State has covered six straight home games and they're on an 8-3 ATS run when hosting Ole Miss.

Jim Feist

Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Under 134

Northwestern is a beats on defense, second in the Big 10 behind Wisconsin in points allowed, tops in field goal shooting defense. The under is 6-2 in the Wildcats last 8 games following a straight up win. Illinois can play defense, too, off a 70-66 win at Iowa as a dog, part of a 7-1 run under the total. And the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Stephen Nover

Senators vs. Devils
Play: Devils -105

Those who have the misfortune of watching the Devils on a daily basis can't be overly pleased with their team and somnolent offense. New Jersey defines mediocrity. However, this is an excellent spot for the Devils. Not only is it a key home game with short revenge for them, but they catch Ottawa at a most opportune time. The Senators are completely banged-up. Already down right wing Bobby Ryan with a possible broken finger that could sideline him multiple weeks, Ottawa suffered three more injuries in its last game this past Sunday. The Senators' top two goal scorers, Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman, both were hurt in that game. Center Tommy Wingels also left after being checked hard into the board. All three played when the Senators shut out the Devils, 3-0, five days ago at Prudential Center. The three injured players did make the trip, but are uncertain to play. Stone could be dealing with a concussion. The Senators didn't practice on Monday. They also called up two players from their AHL affiliate. So I'd be surprised if Stone and Hoffman see ice time. Suffering a cluster injury problem in the front line, especially during such a short span, obviously creates problems. "I don't remember, to be honest, seeing that many (injuries) in so little time," Ottawa coach Guy Boucher was quoted as saying. "These are some of your better players, too. We're not talking about our 12th or 13th forward, we're talking about high-end players." Ottawa also carries a high fatigue rating, playing for the fourth time in six days. The Senators are 5-16 during the past 21 times in that situation. The Devils should have star goalie Cory Schneider back in net. They've won five of their last eight when Schneider has been in goal. New Jersey sits five points out of a playoff spot. The Devils don't play again until Saturday so a monster effort should be forthcoming. If the Devils were to lose this game, management may decide to look at the future with the trade deadline March 1.

Braxton Myles

Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Play: Oklahoma +12

Oklahoma is an amazing 14-4 ATS in this series in all games played at Baylor since 1997. Oklahoma seem to be playing some decent basketball in their last few games despite being down a big part of their team in Jordan Woodard, with Baylor being a hit and miss team from game to game it seems and not really just blowing teams out this line is not unrealistic for Oklahoma at all in this one. Baylor is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games and only 4-7 ATS at home so Baylor being at home in this one shouldn't make much of a difference.

Marc Lawrence

Indiana vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -1½

Edges - Hawkeyes: 16-7 ATS in this series, including 8-2 ATS at home; and 9-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS versus sub .570 opponents this season. Hoosiers: 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS away this season. With the Hawkeyes 23-12 ATS in conference games following three losses-exact, we recommend a 1* play on Iowa.

Jesse Schule

Islanders vs. Red Wings
Play: Islanders -105

After firing head coach Jack Capuano, the Isles have gone 11-4-2 under interim coach Doug Weight. This has put them right back in the hunt for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They are just one point back of the Toronto Maple Leafs, who occupy the final wild card spot. They will be in Detroit tonight, facing a Red Wings team that has the fewest home wins in the conference. Detroit could be due for a let down, coming off back to back upset wins over Washington and Pittsburgh. The Wings rank dead last in the league with a power play unit that has only scored on 12 percent of it's chances. New York was on the wrong side of a pair of one-goal games in the two previous meetings between these teams this season, but I like the Isles here in the Motor City on Tuesday.

Tennis Insiders

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Tommy Haas
Pick: Tommy Haas

Very difficult turnaround for Basilashvili here. He suffered an emotionally draining defeat on Sunday, losing the Memphis final 6-1/6-4 to Ryan Harrison. The match was much closer than the scoreline suggests, with Basilashvili the better player overall. He was 0-12 on break point opportunities! To make the situation worse he was a combined 6-36 with a staggering 42 break point chances from the quarter final onwards. He faces a tough opponent in Tommy Haas, a crowd favorite who makes yet another return to the ATP World Tour following injury. His return in Australia was cut short with an injury problem during his first round match v Benoit Paire, but he forced the Frenchman to a first set tiebreak & could easily have won the contest had he not been hampered by shortness of breath. This is likely the 38 year olds final season on the tour, but he retains plenty of shot making ability & expect him to win at least a set here, Basilashvili's game often spouts unforced errors & is likely to get ugly quickly if has any hangover from Sundays meltdown. Take the veteran to cover the spread.

Jimmy Boyd

Northwestern vs. Illinois
Play: Northwestern -1½

I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a short road favorite against the Illini. These two teams just recently played at Northwestern, with Illinois pulling off the upset in a 68-61 win as a 6-point dog. That loss came in the Wildcats second game without leading scorer Scottie Lindsey and fresh off a 21-point loss at Purdue in their first game without him. Lindsey returned in Northwestern's last game and I look for the Wildcats to get their revenge.

Illinois comes in off a win at Iowa, but are still just 5-9 in Big Ten play. They have lost 3 straight at home, losing by 13 to Penn State, 9 to Minnesota and 14 to Wisconsin. Northwestern is 9-5 in Big Ten play, which doesn't jump off the paper. However, they are 8-2 with Lindsey in the lineup. Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off a home win where they failed to cover the spread and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite of 6 points or less. Illinois is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 as a home dog of 3 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off an upset win as an underdog.

Art Aronson

Blackhawks vs. Wild
Play: Under 5½

These are a couple of the highest scoring teams in the league, but we’re anticipating a defensive goaltenders battle this evening. Corey Crawford gets the call in net for the visitors and he stopped 35 of 38 shots in a 4-3 OT win over the Wild earlier in the year. He’ll be opposed by perhaps the best goatlender in the league in Devan Dubnyk, who backstops a defense which allows just 2.3 GPG, ranked second overall. Note that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Minnesota has seen the total go UNDER in six of ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. With these two world class goaltenders going head-to-head on Tuesday night, we’re going to recommend a second look at the UNDER in this particular matchup.

Mike Lundin

Blackhawks vs. Wild
Play: Wild -135

The Minnesota Wild will host the Chicago Blackhaws in a Central Division showdown Tuesday night. The Wild are sitting top of the division, seven points ahead of the Hawks in second, and they're 11-2 in their last 13 vs. Central Division foes. They had won six straight head-to-head meetings with the Blackhawks prior to a 4-3 OT setback here at Xcel Energy Center on Feb. 8, and I like them to reestablish their dominance in the series tonight.

The Blackhawks have played seven of their last eight games on the road, and I think they'll come out flat here as they play their third game in four nights. The Wild meanwhile are playing on two days rest (they're 4-0 in their last four games playing on 2 days rest) and my money is on the home team in this contest.

Teddy Davis

Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -1½

This line really surprises me as I think Va Tech should be a lot bigger favorite here. This team is still playing for a tournament birth and Clemson is going to the NIT. Va Tech is a dangerous home team with a 13-1 record and they also beat Clemson in the first meeting despite Clemson making 13 threes.

Jack Jones

Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor -12½

The Baylor Bears are highly motivated for a victory tonight at home against the Oklahoma Sooners. They have lost two in a row to Texas Tech and Kansas, and now they'll be looking to take out their frustrations on the worst team in the Big 12.

Oklahoma is just 3-15 SU in its last 18 games overall. The Sooners are simply playing out the string at this point as they have nothing to play for the rest of the way. After a tough loss to in-state rival Oklahoma State on Saturday, I don't expect a very good effort out of them here tonight.

Baylor throttled Oklahoma 76-50 as 7-point road favorites in their first meeting this season. The Bears held the Sooners to just 32.7% shooting for the game. I think their zone defense will once again give Oklahoma fits, especially with the Sooners playing without their best player in PG Jordan Woodard.

Plays on home favorites of 10 or more points (BAYLOR) - off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite, in February games are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS since 1997. Baylor is 74-45 ATS in its last 119 off two or more consecutive losses. The Bears are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.