MATT FARGO
Ohio State vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -1½
This is the final home game of the season for Penn St. and while the last home game is never a guaranteed win, a lot of that has to do with opponent and motivation. The Nittany Lions can finish the season over .500 with a victory here and at Iowa on Saturday to likely get into a lesser tournament after the end of the Big Ten Tournament which is a big deal to extend the season and carry it into next year. The Nittany Lions have lost three straight games including a home loss to Purdue in overtime and they have been very good at home despite a 9-6 record that seems pretty average. Penn St. is 4-4 at home in the conference that includes victories over Michigan St., Minnesota and Maryland. Ohio St. does not fall into that group and while the Buckeyes have the same conference record as Penn St., the season is much more disappointing because of lofty expectations that occur every season. The Buckeyes are coming off a home upset over Wisconsin but they are just 4-10 ATS this season following a victory. Additionally, they are just 3-7 on the road with two of those coming in the conference by just four points combined and the other coming at Navy.
JEFF ALLEN
Warriors vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards +6½
The All Star Break couldn't have come at a worse time for the Wiz who are 0-2 post after going 18-3 heading into the break. Wiz should be completely focused here having lost 9 of 10 in the series and catching the Warriors in a tough B2B after playing in Philly last night. The always overpriced Warriors are 1-4 ATS L5 and could care less about margin in the second half. John Wall and Bradley Beal a very underrated back court. Wiz straight up.
BLACK WIDOW
Florida State vs. Duke
Play: Duke -6½
Bets on home teams as a favorite or pick 'em (Duke) off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, in February games are 47-14 ATS since 1997. Look for a big effort tonight from the Blue Devils on Senior Night. They are 14-1 at home this season. Florida State is just 3-5 in true road games with all 5 losses coming by 10 points or more.
DAVE PRICE
Blazers vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -4½
The Key: At 24-34 on the season, the Portland Trail Blazers are playing with no sense of urgency right now. They have gone 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall and seem content with missing the playoffs. The Detroit Pistons are fighting tooth and nail to make the postseason at 28-31 on the year. They have gone 7-4 SU in their last 11 games and 8-4 ATS in their last 12. They are 18-12 at home this year and will be up against a Blazers team that is just 10-21 SU & 11-20 ATS on the road. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a loss. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to Detroit.
MIKE ANTHONY
Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Play: Texas A&M -4
Texas A&M has lost 3 straight on the road but I like their chances here tonight against an awful Mizzu team who sits at 2-14 in conference play. The Aggies are at least nine points better than the Tigers when they meet in Missouri on Tuesday. Although Texas A&M is a longshot for any sort of postseason invitation, it can make a case by winning its final two SEC games to break even in conference play, then with a solid showing in the conference tournament. The Aggies could benefit from a flat spot by Missouri, which has lost four straight but saw solid efforts against Kentucky and Ole Miss go for naught. I doubt Mizzu gets up for this game and I see Texas A&M by 10 or more tonight!
TJ MASTERLINE
Oilers vs. Blues
Play: Over 5
We hit another winner with our free play yesterday with the over in Tampa, and we have another one on the docket for tonight. We like the Oilers at the Blues over 5. Both teams have some challenges between the pipes IMO. Here are some statistics that led to my action: Over is 3-1-2 in Oilers last 6 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. Over is 4-0-1 in Blues last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 5-0 in Blues last 5 vs. Western Conference. Over is 6-1-4 in Blues last 11 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Blues last 5 Tuesday games. Over is 4-1 in Blues last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Blues last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 13-4-4 in Blues last 21 home games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Columbus -104 over MONTREAL
OT included. Montreal has now won two in row after defeating Toronto on Saturday night and the Devils last night. Montreal could just as easily be 0-2 in those games, as both games went into OT and last night Montreal scored with its goaltender pulled to tie it up. Montreal’s last three victories have all come via OT so this discussion could just as easily be about a team on a seven-game losing streak. The Habs were outplayed last night, they were outshot in both Toronto and New Jersey and they are also 0-4 in their last four games in the tail-end of back-to-backs. Furthermore, the Habs will host the Predators on Thursday in P.K. Subban’s anticipated return to his old stomping grounds. Try and get a ticket for that game. Montreal is not playing well. The Canadiens have been fortunate in their last three victories and are in danger of suffering a big letdown, as this one is sandwiched between a huge celebratory victory last night in OT (rallied from a 3-1 third period deficit) and P.K. Subban’s return on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets quietly arrive in Montreal with great rhythm. While most teams have struggled coming out of the bye week, John Tortorella’s squad returned with a bang, following up a 7-0 pasting of the New York Islanders on Saturday with a 5-2 decision over the New York Rangers on Sunday. Coming off a break and playing six periods like the Jackets have is a huge statement that nobody is saying much about. Everyone wants to talk trades and how good Minnesota and Washington are while ignoring the Blue Jackets. 14 different players recorded points in Columbus’ last two games and seven players scored at least once. The Jackets are rested, in exceptional form and playing at a very high level. The Canadiens at their very best would be hard-pressed to beat this team tonight (or any night for that matter) and we highly doubt that this will be that night. Win or lose, this has to be considered one of the better value bets of the year.
Nashville -½ +122 over BUFFALO
OT included. The Predators are playing at an extremely high level right now with several players getting hot all at the same time. The Preds have won three in a row and they have also scored an incredible four goals or more in seven of their past nine games including five on Washington on Saturday. Nashville has won three in a row and has picked up nine out of a possible 10 points over its last five games. If they do not cover here, it’ll likely be because Pekka Rinne is so bad but it’s a gamble we’re willing to take because Buffalo is a mess and will very likely get beat here.
The Sabres recently won three in a row to at least give them some hope for the playoffs just before their bye week. A 5-1 loss to the Blackhawks was not a big deal prior to its bye but what occurred afterward is a huge deal that is about to send the Sabres reeling if they are not already. Coming out of the bye, Buffalo played Colorado and Arizona and went 0-2 in those games. They not only lost to Arizona but blew a two-goal, third period lead and allowed the winning goal with 18 seconds remaining, thus not even securing one point. The Sabres have chosen to go with Linus Ullmark in goal tonight, a curious choice indeed when you consider that Ullmark hasn’t made a start this season and that both Robin Lehner and Anders Nilsson have been good and both are capable of playing. There is some speculation that Lehner is not 100% but even if that were the case, Nilsson is capable of playing. Reading into it, we’re speculating that the Sabres are showcasing Ullmark to scouts for a potential trade, as that is the only thing that makes sense. Aside from that, Buffalo returns home from that mind-damaging two-game trip that essentially ended their year. We have to question Buffalo’s motivation here. This is a team of plodders that cannot keep up to the fast-pace of the Predators on their best day. Buffalo’s quickest player is Evan Rodrigues, a guy that sounds like he should be playing shortstop for the Padres. With a third stringer in net, plus returning home from a trip to the high altitude of Denver and subsequently to the Arizona desert, with a mindset that cannot be positive, Buffalo is ripe to get whacked here.
CALGARY -½ +148 over Los Angeles
Regulation only. Playing a depleted team coming off its bye, Los Angeles lost 5-4 to Minnesota last night in OT. The Wild were without Jason Pominville and Zach Parise (mumps). Ryan White and Martin Hanzal, acquired in a trade with Arizona the night before, arrived at the arena after a long flight and physical exams less than two hours before the puck drop. Tyler Graovac was a late call-up to Minnesota from AHL affiliate Iowa and played his third game in three nights. Minnesota was up against big time last night yet scored five times on the great Jonathan Quick. One game is no big deal but the point is that the Kings evenly priced in Calgary is so wrong. Scoring four times in back-to-back games is a giant outlier for Los Angeles. They usually score once or twice on a good night.
Los Angeles has great metrics. That is something that is well-documented, especially this time of year when all the experts and talk radio shows are discussing trades, team weaknesses and strengths and which teams are legit or not. Yes indeed, we are quite aware of the Kings outstanding Corsi For numbers that has their stock much higher than it should be. Los Angeles does not have stable goaltending, whether it’s Ben Bishop, Jonathan Quick or Peter Budaj. They have one line that can score and a bunch of other castoffs and third and fourth liners. Outside of Drew Doughty, L.A.’s defense is a cluster of very average players. So yeah, the Kings somehow manage to have the puck more often than their opponents, which proves that hard work goes a long way but there is a reason the Kings missed the playoffs last year and likely will miss them again this year. Talent wise, man for man, L.A. is miles apart from the upper tier teams in the NHL. In this matchup, they are the second best team and it’s not even close.
An angle that the market often fades is teams’ returning home from a trip and that applies here, as Calgary returns home from a 4-1 trip in which it picked up nine out of a possible 10 points. The Flames have won four straight and are 9-2-1 in their last 12, a league best and has launched themselves into 7th place in the West. The Flames went from barely hanging on to the 8th and final spot to becoming one of the hottest teams in the league. Brian Elliott has been a huge factor in that, as he has gone 7-1-1 over that span with a save % of .927. There are so many positives surrounding the Flames right now that includes a hot Jonny Gaudreau, balanced scoring, the outstanding acquisition of Michael Stone to solidify perhaps the best group of d-men in the league, solid goaltending and perhaps most importantly, they're playing with confidence and swag. The Scotiabank Saddledome will be one of the louder rinks in the league tonight and this energized Flames’ team is very likely chomping at the bit to get back out there and put the Kings away. These two teams are NOT even but the game is priced like the Kings are the superior team. That is market perception working at its best in our favor. Invest.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oklahoma St +131 over IOWA ST
Iowa State is one of the hottest teams in the country after ripping off five wins in a row in one of the toughest conferences in the nation. The Cyclones padded their NCAA Tournament résumé with a 72-69 win over then #9 Baylor on Saturday. That victory was a big one but if you watched any of that game then you know that ISU was fortunate to survive. The 'Clones were dominated on the glass by Baylor and lost the rebounding battle 37-17. It gets worse. If you break it down, ISU had just three offensive boards to Baylor's 20. When you give a team that many second chances, a W rarely follows it so ISU should be thankful of the result. Their Head coach Steve Proham was thankful and said afterward, “We are what we are, and that's why I'm proud of these guys.” That brings us to tonight. It's senior night at Hilton Coliseum and the Cyclones have three players taking the court for the last time in Ames. Senior night is more than just a game, it's an event. There isn't a ticket to be had to this game. With seven, four-year players suiting up for the Cyclones and with emotions running high, this game could be an afterthought for many of them. ISU is a lock for The Big Dance and they've locked up a first round bye in the Big 12 Tournament. The Cyclones' stock is at a season high, as they cracked the Top-25 on the backs of that win in Baylor, but that's only inflated their value heading into this one. While ISU is a good team, this is just a bad spot for them against a fellow Big 12 opponent that is on fire.
Oklahoma State is on a five-give winning streak of its own and if not for ISU, the Cowboys would be getting a lot more attention. OSU has top-25 talent, but its absence from the rankings has the Cowboys undervalued. OSU dropped its other meeting with Iowa State earlier this season, 96-88 in Stillwater, but that was way back on January 11th when OSU was in the middle of a dreadful slump. The Cowboys are a different team today than they was then. OSU is in great form having won 10 of its last 11 games including an outright win as a 10½-point pooch at #10 West Virginia. As the unranked team on the road in this situation, OSU is positioned to have a great game. The oddsmakers have come out with a rather enticing line on the home side, being they’re now ranked and winning frequently. However, the line also strongly suggests that it’s a trouble spot for the host, which we outlined above and will not ignore. Oklahoma State is a very dangerous team that will beat any team that is not 100% focused on the task at hand. Iowa State is vulnerable here and we’re on it.
Will Rogers
Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Pick: Missouri +4
The set-up: The 15-13 Texas A&M Aggies will end their regular season on Saturday at home versus Kentucky but should (?) be able to win in their final road game of the season here, at 7-21 Missouri Tigers, who are 2-14 in the SEC.
Texas A&M: The Aggies are coming off an 'ugly' 56-53 win over Alabama, a game in which neither team shot better than 34 percent from the floor and the two squads combined to shoot 8-for-35 from three-point range. Texas A&M head coach Billy Kennedy can't be too pleased with this year's record, after A&M won 28 games last season in reaching the Sweet 16. The fact is, the Aggies have really underachieved this season. Kennedy has two 6-10 centers in Davis (14.4 & 6.8 ) and Troch-Morelos (8.1 & 5.2) plus two 6-9 forwards in Williams (12.0 & 7.9) and Hogg (12.0 & 5.1). He also has a quality PG in Gilder (13.7-4.0-3.9). Why is this team just two games above.500 and 7-9 in SEC play?
Missouri: Head coach Kim Anderson is pretty much at loss with the way things have gone for him, here at his alma mater. He led the Central Missouri Mules to back-to-back MIAA championships and three appearances in the NCAA Division II Final Four in 2007, 2009 and won the championship in 2014. On April 28, 2014 it was announced that he would take over the job vacated by Frank Haith at the University of Missouri, his alma mater. Missouri had won 20-plus games for six straight years when he took over (five NCAA appearances) but the Tigers went 10-21 and 9-23 in his first two seasons, going 3-15 each season in SEC play. Now it's 7-21 overall, including 2-14 in SEC play with two games left.
The pick: A&M is the better team but as noted above, has not come close to getting the most out of its talent. Eight Missouri players see regular "PT" and chip in between 5.4 and 12.2 PPG. When these teams met at College Station, the Tigers lost by just three, despite A&M shooting 49.1%. A&M has nothing to play for here and I expect Missouri to pull the "upset!"
Power Sports
Hornets vs. Lakers
Pick: Charlotte
I've taken the Hornets in every game since the All-Star Break. The first time did not end well as they blew a large fourth quarter lead and lost in overtime at Detroit. But after failing to cover there, they won at Sacramento Saturday and then w/o rest, played the Clippers tough Sunday. It was a wire to wire cover there as 10-pt dogs. Incredbly, the Hornets are now a league-worst 0-5 SU in overtime games this year (were 4-0 last year!). I still believe this team is set to ascend in the Eastern Conference standings, so a logically that means they should beat the lowly Lakers Tuesday. I think they will - with "room to spare."
The Lakers have already exceeded last year's win total (17), but that's quite a low bar to get excited about. After a respectable 10-10 SU start under 1st year HC Luke Walton, this once proud franchise has gone 9-31 since the start of December. Headlines were made last week when it was announced the Magic Johnson was being brought back into the fold, to run the team. What a sad, desperate callback to the past. The reality of the matter is Magic can't help this team's woeful defense, which is 29th in efficiency. The Lakers are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games. The last three losses have all been by double digits.
Charlotte is top 10 in defensive efficiency and has actually outscored its opponents this season. So I feel their record is misleading. Yes, it's been an ugly stretch. But they easily could have won their last four games. Two of the saw them blow a double digit lead in the 4Q. Then there was the OT loss to the Clippers Sunday. When favored this year, the Hornets have won 24 of 39 games. Lay the short number.
Rob Veno
Fresno State at Boise State
Play: Fresno State +4.5
Entirely different betting directions being taken by these teams as Fresno State is on a 3-0 ATS and 4-0 O/U run while Boise has current streaks of 0-6 ATS and 4-0 O/U. The conflicting trends combined with the earlier 89-80 Fresno win way back on January 14 give no immediate handicapping edge to a certain side or total. However, there are some additional technical trends that directly point to the visiting Bulldogs here. The strongest are Boise’s 0-6 ATS mark in its last six home games and 0-5 record as a favorite since January 25. Fresno meanwhile has gone 6-3 ATS as a road underdog and the underdog in this series is 7-3 over the last 10 meetings.
The fundamentals are close but Fresno does have a distinct advantage on the defensive glass while Boise is the better three point shooting team. In the first game, Fresno had six double digit scorers, shot 22/38/57.9% from two-point range and went to the free throw line 43 times (+13 attempts, +11 points). Boise on the other hand shot nearly 50% of their field goal attempts (31 of 63) from beyond the arc netting 36 points but could not get much inside the paint or on guard penetration.
It’s senior night in Boise and they’ll celebrate starting forward Nick Duncan and sixth man James Reid but this game has conference tourney seeding implications and Fresno appears tough enough to handle the festivities. Figure the visiting Bulldogs to focus on defending the arc which is Boise’s main weapon. Like the Fresno backcourt quickness and interior toughness in this matchup so +4.5 is worth taking.
Otto Sports
Oklahoma St at Iowa St
Play: Under 162..5
We're in the dog days of power conference play with many teams wrapping up the regular season this weekend. That of course means a lot of second meetings and plenty of familiarity. Iowa State and Oklahoma State last saw one another back in mid-January with the Cyclones winning a high scoring affair, 96-86 in Stillwater. While ISU hasn't changed its stripes much that same cannot be said for the Cowboys who completely overhauled their defensive philosophy. Rather than run up and down and press, OSU is playing a much more controlled brand of basketball. They've ditched the high-pressure defense and instead focused on containment. It's paid off in a big way as Oklahoma State has won 10 of 11 with seven of those games going under the total. This has also led to a slower pace with seven of those games failing to top 70 possessions. If tonight's game hovers around that 70-possession mark there's a good chance we can cash in on the under. Note that the first meeting closed 158.5 and that was with Oklahoma State playing crazy fast and next to no defense.