Free Picks for Tuesday, February 7th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
BLUE JACKETS AT RED WINGS
PLAY: BLUE JACKETS – 135
Okay, let’s get the bad news out of the way at the top. Columbus has not been winning much lately and the culprit has been shoddy defense and leaky goaltending. That has to stated right at the top, as I normally don’t like playing on teams in this form.
But I also like the idea of going against the Red Wings. Yes, Detroit has won two straight. But the Wings were extremely fortunate in both victories. They topped the Islanders in a game that featured some really fluky goals, and the Detroit game winner late in regulation was a classic. A shot from the left bounced off one Islander, then deflected off another and eventually found its way past the goalie. Cheap goal would be an understatement.
Next up was the weekend win at Nashville. The Red Wings were totally dominated in this game, but goalie Mrazek, who has not been good lately, had perhaps the best game of his career. Maybe he can do it again tonight, but I kind of doubt it and the Detroit offense isn’t exactly setting the world on fire these days.
One other piece of info worth including here is how spectacularly well Columbus has done when well rested. This team is 15-3 for the season playing on two or more days rest, including a perfect 6-0 when off a loss.
I think the brief break is just what the doctor ordered for Columbus and I expect them to skate well tonight at Detroit. I’ll spot the price in this one with the Blue Jackets.
Sleepyj
Nets / Hornets Over 217
These are the two coldest teams in the league right now...combined they have lost 16 straight games and it's all due to the defense...Neither team right now is doing anything on the defensive end and they are giving up triple digits nightly....The last win for the Hornets was against this Nets team 8 games back...i think they come out looking to outrun the nets here tonight....That could be a problem because the Nets will run and gun all night long...Nets will be on a back to back with a game on Wednesday night, but the Hornets have a day off before they play the Rockets at home...So I expect a high minute count for the starters for the Hornets...They should hit the 115 mark tonight without issue,...Nets avg about 105ppg and I think they get to that mark tonight also....It's really the defense and the situation I'll be playing here tonight...This will be the forth meeting between these two teams..They know what works more on the offensive end against each other...Bad defense tend to figure things out no matter who they play...Plus both teams can play fast and that alone has me liking the over by itself....I think we see a 116-106 type of game...Line is a tad low as I had this one 221.5
Bryan Leonard
Brooklyn at Charlotte
Play: Charlotte -10½
We don't normally lay this type of number with a team struggling like the Hornets, but there is a major talent mismatch here. Charlotte returns home after facing the likes of Utah, Golden State, Portland and Sacramento. All teams playing well and fighting for playoff spots. The last time these two tangled Charlotte was favored by 12 and won by 7. But since them the Nets have fallen even further into the basement and Charlotte has had the past two days off.
Marc Lawrence
Rhode Island vs. Massachusetts
Play: Massachusetts +6
Edges - Minutemen: 14-5 ATS as a dog in this series, including 5-0 ATS with revenge. Rams: 8-17 ATS as road favorites, including 0-4 SUATS following a double-digit ATS win. With Rhode Island off a underdog revenge win over Davidson, and looking ahead to another revenge affair with Dayton, we recommend a 1* play on Rhode Island.
Jim Feist
San Diego St at San Jose St
Pick: Under
San Diego State is a strong defensive team, 5-1 under the total after a victory, 7-0 under after a spread cover. San Diego State is the top-ranked defensive unit in the conference. In Mountain West games only, the Aztecs rank first in points allowed (65.8 ), first in field-goal percentage defense (40.0 percent), blocked shots (5.0 bpg) and second in steals (7.1 spg). Last Saturday, SDSU?snapped Fresno State's 13-game homecourt win streak and the nation's longest active win streak vs. conference competition with a 70-67 win. San Jose State plays its best defense at home, on an 11-5-1 run under the total here. The Under is also 10-4 in the Spartans last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Wunderdog
Orlando vs. Houston
Pick: Orlando +11.5
The Houston Rockets may want to lay claim to being among the elite in the Western Conference, but they have certainly not played like it since the first of the year. They are 37-17, but that record was built early in the season as they got out of the gate at 26-9. Things have been much less impressive since as they are 11-8 over their last 19 games, but the overall record looks better and the line here is reflective of that. This is a team that out-scored opponents by +12.8 points per game in December, but since then they out-scored opponents by +2.5 ppg in Jamuary. So far in February, they have been out-scored by -0.5 ppg. This is not so much a play on Orlando as it is against Houston, who has become highly over-valued.
Brad Powers
Georgia +5.5
Florida won the earlier meeting back on January 14th 80-76 in OT but failed to cover the 12-point spread. This is a nice situational spot here for Georgia coming off back-to-back road losses to South Carolina and Kentucky but they covered both games easily losing in OT to Kentucky and by only 2 at South Carolina. In fact, Georgia is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this year and much of that credit goes to their Top 30 defense. Meanwhile, on the other side, Florida is off their biggest win of the season, a 88-66 beatdown of Kentucky. The Gators have had 4 straight blowout wins and covers and we'll "Sell High" on them here.
Jack Brayman
My free pick is on the Washington Capitals Puck Line over the Carolina Hurricanes in NHL action tonight.
Has anyone actually watched the Washington Capitals lately? Seriously, this team is exciting. I feel sorry for opposing goalies, because the Caps don't let up. Even though they're hosting a streaking Carolina Hurricanes team that won their third straight Saturday against the Islanders in overtime, the Capitals have scored four or more goals in 14 of their past 19 games.
Washington is 23-0-1 this season when reaching four goals.
23-0-1.
Now, Washington is at home, and make note it has scored first 38 times this season and is 30-4-4 when doing so, the best mark in the NHL. The Caps lead the NHL with 78 points after earning at least one point in 18 of their past 20 games. And one of those games was a 6-1 thrashing over this same Carolina team, on Jan. 23, in Washington. The Capitals have won two of three against the Hurricanes this season.
Take the Capitals puck line tonight.
1* CAPITALS
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play is Kentucky to take out their frustrations of losing at Florida by 22-points their last time out - their 3rd loss in their last 4 games by the way! - on the LSU Tigers tonight in Lexington.
LSU comes into this game a putrid 9-13 now, as they are currently riding a 9-game straight up losing streak that has seen the points work only 3 times in those 9 losses.
This is a Tigers team that is averaging just 74-points per game, and they just don't own enough offense to keep this game anywhere within reach tonight against the merciless Wildcats who will be ready to put a licking on them.
The last time these SEC schools met, Kentucky let it rip in a 94-77 revenge win last March.
This one turns ugly very early, as Rupp Arena gets treated to a beat down of epic proportions.
Kentucky by 30 points.
3* KENTUCKY
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Nets vs. Hornets
Play: Under 217
The Nets have lost 9 straight games and come into this one having had yesterday off. The Hornets have lost 7 straight games and come into this one having had two days off. Both teams will have fresh legs and are looking to put that extra energy into the defensive end. Brooklyn has already been playing better on that end of the floor but Charlotte, so hungry for a win, really focused hard on that in practice as they prepared for this game. The Hornets know that fourth quarter collapses on defense have played a major role in their recent losing streak so they'll be fully focused on the defensive end for this one for all four quarters! The under is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games and, going further back, the under is 7-2 in Brooklyn's last 9 games. The Hornets most recent home game went over the total but, prior to that, Charlotte was 5-0 to the under in their last 5 home games. The under is 5-1 this season (and 19-7 L3 seasons combined) when Charlotte enters a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. When playing with 2 days of rest between games the under is on a 22-13 run in Hornets games. The under is 4-1 when the Hornets are a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and the under is also 5-2 this season in Charlotte's home games that have a posted total of 210 points or more. Looking at Brooklyn, the under is 6-3 this season in their games against Southeast Division opponents. Also, the Nets, the past 3 seasons combined, are 24-16 to the under when off of a divisional game.
STEVE JANUS
Tulsa vs. Memphis
Play: Under 140½
Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TULSA) - off a home loss by 10 points or more against opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points. This system is 58-20 (74%) against the total since 1997.
BRANDON LEE
Illinois vs. Northwestern
Play: Illinois +6
The Fighting Illini are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Wildcats. The public is all over Northwestern in this spot, as they see a short line at home with a team that has a much better record. The key here is that Northwestern is not the same team as it was just a week ago. The Wildcats lost talented junior guard Scottie Lindsey to mono prior to their last game at Purdue and they lost 59-80. Lindsey not only leads the team in scoring (15.4 ppg), but he's someone who does a little bit of everything (4.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.1 spg). It's a much bigger loss than people think and it's going to take some time for the Wildcats to adjust. I know Illinois has been struggling, but I think they keep this one close and I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright.
ALEX SMART
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings
Play: Blue Jackets -117
Columbus has been cratering of late, thanks to some crap goaltending and ugly/lazy defense, and off an embarrassing 5-1 loss vs NJ Devils last time out, as they came out in that above mentioned game asleep at the proverbial wheel. Truth is they did not pace themselves earlier this season, when they went on a 16 game winning streak, and finally hit a yield sign, as their energy waned. Now I expect John Tortorella Jackets will be hell bent on bouncing back, and getting some of their lost respect for themselves back vs a inconsistent Red Wings side.
The Blue Jackets are 9-1 in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest and are 10-4 in their last 14 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.Blue Jackets are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Red Wings are 7-16 in their last 23 home games and are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Red Wings are 0-6 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.Blue Jackets are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
JOHN MARTIN
Nets vs. Hornets
Play:Nets +10½
The Charlotte Hornets aren't playing well enough to warrant being double-digit favorites over the Brooklyn Nets tonight. They have lost seven straight games coming in. I realize the Nets have also lost nine straight, but they have been competitive and have rarely lost by this margin. Six of their last seven losses have come by 9 points or fewer. The Nets and Hornets have already squared off three times this season, so this will be their fourth and final meeting. And the first three were all decided by 7 points or less. That trend likely continues tonight as the Nets cover this massive 10.5-point spread.