TONY GEORGE
Iowa State vs. Texas
Play: Iowa St -2½
Texas simply underachieves in big spots and ISU is off a win at Kansas, and we all know how hard it is to win at Kansas. Many say this is a letdown spot, but Iowa State needed a jump start and an RPI bump to get the ball rolling for the big dance and seeding both there and in a conference tourney.
Texas is 7-1 at home against the Cyclones and no doubt playing a better brand of basketball down the stretch including a close loss to West Virginia, but I am still not convinced as Iowa State is a beast. That said you do not hear much about the ISU defense but it is better this year than most, forced 21 turnovers out of Kansas on the road. While not be a runaway win, Iowa State is the better team and the with 3-point capability and rebounding edge, I will take them and lay the 3. To take note the Longhorns in their last 5 games have shot 58% from the free throw stripe and that is a huge down the stretch in terms of possessions.
DAVE PRICE
Central Michigan +8½
This is a clear letdown spot for the Ohio Bobcats. They just beat the best team in the MAC in Akron 85-70 at home on Saturday as 1.5-point underdogs. Now they are being priced like they are the best team in the MAC as 8.5-point favorites here over Central Michigan. But the Chippewas are no pushovers, winning 4 of their last 5 games coming in. And they have had the bobcats' number, going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last 3 meetings. They won 72-49 at home over Ohio in their most recent meeting last season. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Bobcats are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
JACK JONES
Kentucky -24.5
Expect a big effort from the Kentucky Wildcats tonight. They have actually lost three of their last four games coming in, which is basically unheard of under John Calipari. But all four were against quality competition in Tennessee, Kansas, Georgia and Florida.
Now the Wildcats get to take out their frustration on one of the worst teams in the SEC. LSU is 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in SEC play this season, getting outscored by 14.7 points per game on average. The Tigers have rarely even been competitive as they've lost five straight games by double-digits coming in.
We've seen the Tigers lose by more than this to less competition on the road this year. They lost by 34 at Wake Forest and by 30 at Texas A&M. I know this 24.5-point spread is massive, but given Kentucky's situation they will cover with a big bounce-back effort.
LSU is 0-6 ATS in road games versus good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Wildcats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
JIMMY BOYD
Butler vs. Marquette
Play: Butler +1½
These two teams met back in Butler on 1/16 and the Bulldogs erased a 18-point halftime deficit in a 88-80 win and cover as a 7.5-point favorite. I think most are going to jump on Marquette here, expecting they will get their revenge at home and a lot of those same people remember them recently winning at home over Villanova. I just don't think that's going to be the case. The Golden Flashes are an average team and more than anything, I believe they are catching Butler at the wrong time.
The Bulldogs are going to be all business here, as they look to snap a 2-game losing streak, where they dropped games at home against Georgetown as a 8.5-point favorite and Creighton as a 7-point favorite. That is also playing into this line, as Butler should be favored here. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 with a line of +3 to -3 and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss. Marquette is 7-15 ATS in their last 22 as a home favorite and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games after playing their previous game on the road.
MATT JOSEPHS
Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo
Play: Over 151½
A pair of struggling MAC teams play as Toledo hosts Eastern Michigan. The Rockets have lost three straight and six of their last eight entering this one. The problem has been a defense that has allowed every conference opponent but one to score 70 points or better with four of them shooting 50% or better from the field. They've got offensive weapons so they can keep up a bit, but still it makes it harder. The Eagles have lost four of five entering this one and it's because of a struggling offense. A lot was expected from EMU because of their returning starters. The Eagles have had their own defensive issues. I think this one is close which means fouls come into play and that helps out total.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles -101 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. This is not a good matchup for the Lightning. Aside from struggling in every key area, (goals, goaltending, defense and special teams), the Lightning will now face the heavy-handed Kings. Heavy handed meaning that it’s difficult to take the puck away from the Kings. Now the NHL’s top possession team will face a struggling squad that can’t get the puck out of its own end. Despite some top-notch talent, Tampa’s flaws just keep getting bigger and more exposed. Take away Tampa’s top line, something the Kings are quite adept at doing, and the Bolts are hard pressed to score twice and that’s if the top line shows up. The Bolts are a bottom-10 team in so many key categories that includes save %, goal differential, and time spent in its own end. Furthermore, Tampa shows up about 50% of the time.
L.A. is coming off a 5-0 loss to the Caps on Super Bowl Sunday, which works to our advantage because the score influences the market. For those that didn’t watch that game, we’re here to tell you that the Kings dominated play and spent most of the game in Washington’s end. L.A. held a 38-20 shots on net advantage and a massive 64% puck possession advantage. The Caps buried the few chances they had while the Kings ran into a super hot backup goaltender. The chances of Ben Bishop being super hot are about the same as Dan Quinn being named Coach of the Week.
We cannot tell you what the result of this game will be but we can almost guarantee you that the Kings will have a huge territorial advantage. L.A. leads the league in Corsi For. They lead the league in fewest shots against per 60 minutes. Against Washington, Philadelphia and Colorado over its last three games, L.A. allowed 59 shots against combined. Throw out the 5-0 loss last game and the Kings allowed a total of three goals against in their previous five games combined (!). This is not a fair fight and the fact that the Bolts are favored here, albeit it slightly (at the time of this writing) is so wrong.
Carolina +175 over WASHINGTON
OT included. This one is interesting so let us set it up for you. Washington is the greatest show on ice and you can triple that sentiment when it plays at home. Washington’s last home loss was to New Jersey in OT in late December. To start the New Year, the Caps defeated Ottawa and Toronto but then they really caught fire. After defeating the Maple Leafs 6-5 on Jan 3 at the Verizon Center, nobody else has even come close. At home since that win over Toronto, Washington has victories of 5-0 over Columbus, 5-2 over Pittsburgh, 6-0 over Chicago, 5-0 over Philly, 6-1 over Carolina, 5-3 over Boston and 5-0 over Los Angeles. Add it up and the Caps have outscored a slew of playoff teams and Cup contenders over that span by a combined (and sick) score of 37-6. They are destroying quality opposition and taking names as they go.
Incidentally, and in case you missed it, one of those teams that the Caps buried was Carolina just 15 days ago on Jan 23 when they whacked the Canes, 6-1. However, a close look reveals that luck has played a major role in all those goals scored. Everything is going in for the Caps, thus some attrition is inevitable. Against L.A. on Sunday, the Caps were outshot 38-20 and won 5-0. In its 5-3 win over the Bruins, Washington had 22 shots on net while allowing 33. When the Caps beat Philadelphia, 5-0, they scored those five goals on 22 shots on net. When they beat the Hurricanes, 6-1, they scored all those goals on 24 shots on net. Overall, Washington has 26 shots on net or less in six of its last eight games while allowing far more than that. We also have to question whether or not the Caps want to continue scoring at this pace or even winning at this pace. They made a commitment to peaking at the right time this year so getting red-hot right now is detrimental to their quest. Production will inevitably regress and so will winning at this pace so the timing for a playoff choke is lining up again. Subconsciously, it has to be on every players mind to not peak too soon.
The Hurricanes have won three in a row off the break. They are a possession monster that is very capable of coming in here, playing their hearts out and catching the Caps rather disinterested. When you look back at the slew of strong competition that the Caps have played recently (Pitt, Chic, L.A., Columbus, etc), one could certainly excuse Washington for taking a breather here. The Hurricanes can and likely will catch the Caps not at their best and they should be able to hold a significant edge in puck possession based on the numbers this year.
Lastly, we have discussed paying attention to Pinnacle in the past. All morning, Pinnacle had the Canes +147 while every other sportsbook had Carolina taking back +170 or more. That was a good three hour window this morning that Pinnacle was giving away Washngton on the cheap. We’re not going to ignore that and we’re certainly not going to ignore that the ’Canes are too good to be taking back prices like this.
N.Y. RANGERS -1½ +217 over Anaheim
With Kevin Hayes returning to The Rangers lineup here, this is New York’s best lineup and it’s a dangerous one. Hayes is one of these undervalued players that makes a big difference in terms of puck possession, something the Rags struggle with when Hayes is out. Hayes’ returning allows Alain Vigneault to use Vesey with Stepan and Nash, a combination that was intact for 10 straight games from Oct. 22-Nov. 8 and had a 50 percent possession rating in 133 minutes of 5-on-5. The Chris Kreider-Mika Zibanejad-Mats Zuccarello unit is one of the league’s best and now the Hayes line (Grabner - Hayes - J.T. Miller) will be accounted for too. That leaves some pretty talented players to make up for the fourth line and while Hayes is no superstar, his presence in the lineup makes a big difference that not many will pay attention to. The Rangers are in line for a really spirited effort here and the Ducks are the perfect victims to attack.
Anaheim has the fourth most points in the West behind only Chicago, Minnesota and San Jose so they are considered to be an upper echelon team but we’re going to take a stance here and say they are not even close. The Ducks played some pretty good hockey earlier in the year but those days are long gone and while the results have not shown it yet, no team has regressed more over the past six weeks in terms of performance (not results) than the Ducks. Anaheim gets outplayed almost every game and appear to be going through the motions only. They have mustered a mere 16, 23, 26 and 27 shots on net in four of their last five games and it’s not like they were playing some defensive juggernauts (Florida, Tampa, Colorado, Edmonton and Winnipeg).
Anaheim can’t stay out of the box either. Only the undisciplined Jets have taken more penalties and that’s a major problem here against a potent Rags PP. The Ducks have five lousy wins in 18 games against top -10 competition and 10 lousy wins in 27 games against top-16 competition. This is not the first dressing room that Randy Carlyle has poisoned. He’s not a likeable guy at all and does not know how to communicate to make a guy like Andrew Cogliano for instance feel as important as Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry. The Ducks are tops on our fade list for the next while and it begins here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Vanderbilt +4 over ARKANSAS
Arkansas has struggled lately and nothing suggests those woes won't continue. The Razorbacks were awful against last place Missouri on Saturday, falling 83-78 as an eight-point favorite. The Hogs turned the ball over 17 times against Mizzou, which lead to 19-points for the Tigers. A loss like that will not endear you to the selection committee and now the pressure is on Arkansas to secure a place in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas leads this all time series with Vanderbilt 22-11 and they've won four straight but so what. That will only motivate the dog more. The Hogs have more luck than substance and those razor thin margins often even out over time. Arkansas has been playing with fire when it comes to close contests. They've won six straight games that were decided by four points or less with one those victories being an improbable 1-point comeback over the Commodores just two weeks ago.
Vanderbilt comes into this one with a 11-12 record and sit 12th in the SEC. While its wins and losses my not look spectacular, a closer look shows us the Commodores have played the 15th toughest schedule in all of college hoops. More impressive yet is their recent form against some of the top teams in the country. Vandy has wins over Iowa State (another tough unranked team that's played a brutal schedule) and they went to Gainesville and beat the #17 ranked Gators outright as an 11½ point pooch. These two teams played just a few week ago with the Commodores blowing a 15-point lead late in the second half. Vandy was the much better team on the floor that night but just because the Razorbacks took that game in Nashville doesn't guarantee the Hogs a victory tonight.
Vandy rebounded from that heartbreaking loss January 24th by winning their next two games, which included a 14-point victory over Texas A&M as a +4½ road dog. Vandy has five guys that can stretch the floor and are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country with 10.1 triples per game. Even 7'1” center Luke Kornet can drain it from downtown and is shooting .382 from beyond the arc. Kornet is actually the NCAA's all time leading 3-point-shooting 7-footer. Winning on the road in this league is always tough but Vandy has a score to settle here for being the Hogs whipping boys for far too long. It’s one thing to get buried by the same team if you are inferior but that is not the case right now. We have two very misleading records going up against one another and we trust we’re getting the hungrier and superior team plus points. Arkansas is not good enough to be a 17-6 team.
Power Sports
Syracuse vs. Clemson
Pick: Clemson
These teams are off very different results on Saturday and I'm going to use that to our advantage by exploiting a line that seems too low. Syracuse is coming off a big upset of Virginia (at the Carrier Dome) where they were 4.5-point underdogs. Not only was it their fourth win in a row overall, it was their third straight as either a dog or a pick 'em. Meanwhile, a day after the Orange upset the Hoos, Clemson got humiliated down in Tallahassee. They lost 109-61 to Florida State, a result that I'm sure will have players motivated tonight. I'll lay the short number with the home team here.
This being a road game for Syracuse makes a world of difference. While they are 14-2 SU at home this season, they are a combined 1-7 SU in road/neutral site games. They've been outscored - on average - by a double digit margin as well. The lone SU (and ATS) win away from home this year came at NC State last Wednesday. However, that win required overtime and saw the Orange trail by as many as 16 in the second half. It was largely owed to your typical NC State gagjob.
ACC play hasn't gone all that well for Clemson. Their record is only 3-7 SU, however, they had won B2B games prior to the debacle at FSU. Many of the losses have been close. Four have been by five points or less, in fact. I'm simply willing to "sell high" on one team (Syracuse) and "buy low" on the other (Clemson) here as something is bound to go right for the latter here. Syracuse's road woes are a concern plus Clemson still averages over 80 PPG here in Death Valley.
Andrew Lange
Utah St at Colorado St
Play: Under 140.5
I've played Utah State under the total a handful of times over the last few weeks and have been rewarded with a few easy winners. The Aggies have actually gone under in six straight games based on the closing number thanks to some improved defense and a moderate pace. During that stretch, USU allowed 67.7 ppg and four of the six had 65 possessions or less. One such game was the first meeting between Utah State and tonight's opponent Colorado State. The Rams prevailed 64-56 as the game went well under the total of 142. CSU is a game out of first place in the Mountain West after winning four of five. The Rams are one of the slower teams in the MWC, particiularly on offense as Larry Eustachy has really preached patience. "It's the way you should play basketball," Eustachy said. "You want the other team to guard you, break them down, take a good shot, and then you don't spend as much time on defense." The Mountain West can be a tough nut to crack for totals bettors. There are a lot of games that appear headed for the low-130's only to land north of 150. Fouls, defensive lapses, hot shooting -- this league has is all and some. That said, I think tonight's game should play out similar to the grinder we saw in the first meeting. Play it under.
Micah Roberts
Alabama at South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -6
South Carolina has a four game winning streak going while Alabam has lost its last two, including a bad home loss Saturday as 7-point favorites against Auburn. South Carolina's offense has been goingat a much faster pace lately sending their games Over the total, but their defense is still suffocating as they allow opponents to shoot 38 percent from the field. At home they allow only 36.9 percent shooting. I'm on the Gamecocks tonight.
Oskeim Sports
San Diego State at San Jose State
Play: San Jose State +7.5
San Jose State applies to a very good 33-9 ATS system that invests on certain underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset win over a conference opponent, provided they are matched up against a conference foe off a close road win by three points or less. The Spartans are coming off back-to-back wins over UNLV (76-72) and New Mexico (78-68) and are playing with legitimate revenge after suffering a 76-61 loss at San Diego State earlier this season. And, San Jose State is more than capable of pulling the upset tonight as the Aztecs are just 6-6 SU and 5-6 ATS on the road and have a huge revenge game on deck against Nevada.
The Spartans already own upset wins over Washington State, Idaho, Fresno State, Air Force and the aforementioned Lobos. Finally, my math model only favors the Aztecs by four points and forward Zylan Cheatham, who is averaging 10.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, is questionable with a foot injury. With San Diego State standing at a money-burning 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite of 7 to 12.5 points, grab the points with the Spartans and invest with confidence.
Mike Rose
Florida at Georgia
Play: Florida -5.5
Since dropping back-to-back heartbreakers against both South Carolina and Vanderbilt in games they combined to average under 60 points per game, the Gators have flipped the switch and been the most impressive team in the SEC since. In destroying the Wildcats by 22 points, Florida has scored an average of 92.8 points per over its L/4 games and played a suffocating brand of defense in allowing an average of just 60.1 points per game. That +32.7 differential now finds them only behind the Gamecocks in the conference standings.
The Bulldogs are no doubt a better team than their 11-8 overall record indicates with it 7-2 ATS on the true road and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games. However, the team was just put through the ringer both physically and emotionally and might not have much left in the tank right now to compete against a Gators squad currently firing on all cylinders. With Florida 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the favorite 5-2 ATS in the last seven, I expect Florida to not suffer a letdown and hand Georgia yet another tough defeat.
David Banks
Butler @ Marquette
Pick: Butler +1.5
After winning seven of eight games that included wins over No. 15 Xavier and top-ranked Villanova, 16th-ranked Butler went cold. The Bulldogs have dropped two straight, losing by four to Georgetown and dropping a 76-67 decision to No. 22 Creighton last Tuesday. Now, Butler head coach Chris Holtmann’s team has had a week to prepare for a road game at Marquette on Tuesday night.
Butler has a win over the Golden Eagles already this season having beaten Marquette 88-80 on Jan. 16. Leading scorer Kelan Martin scored 22 points to lead the Bulldogs while Kamar Baldwin added 18 and Kethan Savage scored 17 coming off the bench. The Bulldogs shot 53 percent from the floor and will need to do so again.
The Bulldogs will have to do their best to slow down Marquette guard Markus Howard. The 5-foot-11 freshman averages 12 points a game and led all scorers with 26 in the first meeting with Butler. Holtmann will also have to come up with a way to deal with the four-guard lineup of Marquette. Martin is Butler’s best player and averages 16.3 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, both tops for the Bulldogs. Andrew Chrabascz (6-7, 230) is a big body that averages 11.2 points and 4.9 rebounds and Holtmann can go nine deep in his bench. Butler will likely need all nine as Marquette is one of the top scoring teams in the nation averaging 83.7 points per game (18th nationally).