Free Picks for Tuesday, January 17th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
NUGGETS AT LAKERS
PLAY: LAKERS -1.5
The Lakers have now lost four in a row, so I can certainly understand reluctance to back this team, particularly as even a very small home favorite.
But I liked what I saw from the Lakers, even though they came up a bit short on Sunday against the Pistons. This was a game in which their starters were not good at all. But head coach Luke Walton had to be pleased with the bench contributions. Off three straight lopsided losses, I though this performance offered some encouragement.
The Lakers should at least enjoy a scheduling advantage tonight. Denver played very well in handling the Magic on Monday. But now the Nuggets have to hit the road with no rest and this has been a problem all season. Denver has just one win in seven tries on the second of back to backs, and they’re also just 1-6 hitting the road off a home win.
In spite of winning handily on Monday, the Nuggets had to use five players for 30+ minutes and they will also likely be without Gary Harris for this game. He injured an ankle early against Orlando and is currently not expected to play on Tuesday night.
Given the Nuggets poor tendencies in this type of scheduling spot and my not giving their bench high marks, I believe it sets up nicely for the Lakers to end their skid with the win and cover.
Sleepyj
San Antonio -11
Spurs have been solid all year long and they have been cashing tickets as of late for the bettors...Spurs are coming off a loss and they would like to rebound here against a T-Wolves team that can't get it together...Spurs at home are very strong and Minnesota on the road has the 2nd worst road record in the league..They are actually tied with a few teams with that road record...Minnesota will get Lavine back in the lineup, but I'm not sure it helps them much here on the road.....T-Wolves took on the Spurs in Minnesota and it resulted in a 14 point loss...Now only laying -11, the Spurs get the call tonight to hammer the T-Wolves.
Ken Thomson
Akron -5
Good chance that Ohio's 6'9 Forward Antonio Campbell misses this game vs. Akron- Campbell went down early last game with a foot injury and that could be huge since Campbell averages ( 16.4 ppg ) and also grab ( 8.9 RBpg )- Akron has won 7 straight and with Isaiah Jackson & Kwan Cheatham infusing offense to the zips, Akron should roll by double digits.
Scott Spreitzer
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers -1½
Not the best spot for the Nuggets, off last night's 125-112 home win over Orlando. Denver enters tonight's roadie on a 0-5 ATS slide when playing in the second of back-to-back nights. The Lakers are middle-of-the-pack on the offensive end, but get "just what the doctor ordered," against a team that plays little defense. Offensively for Denver, we expect SG Gary Harris to sit this one out (listed as doubtful) after injuring his ankle last night. We also note the Nuggets, another middle-of-the-pack shooting team, is likely in for a down-tick after nailing 58% of their FGA in last night's home win. Finally, the Lakers have been installed as a favorite just twice in their last nine games, but won & covered both. We look for more of the same in this one.
Jim Feist
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers -1½
Denver doesn't play any defense, #28 in the NBA in points allowed and field goal shooting defense. The Nuggets are on a 2-8 spread run and had to play yesterday. The team is 0-5 ATS playing on no days rest. The Lakers are home and rested, the middle of a three-game home stand.
Frank Jordan
Timberwolves vs.Spurs
Play: Spurs -11
Minnesota is 14-27 on the year after a 4-6 record in their last 10 games. Minnesota has struggled on the road this year with a 5-14 mark and is just 7-18 against the West. San Antonio is 31-9 through their first 40 games and have picked up wins in seven of their last 10 games. San Antonio is 18-5 in games against Western conference teams and have played well at home with a 14-5 record. Six weeks ago, these two teams squared off in Minnesota with the Spurs winning 105-91 with Leonard scoring 31 points. Look for another big game from Leonard as the Spurs win by 20 points as they continue their strong play at home.
Jesse Schule
Chicago vs. Colorado
Pick: Chicago
Not only are the Colorado Avalanche the worst team in the league, they are actually better on the road than they are at home. They've lost 12 of their last 13 games at the Pepsi Center, and they are just 4-18-1 in their last 23 overall. The Avs are said to be shopping veteran players like Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. The Chicago Blackhawks are in town tonight, and they are a team that might be looking to add a few more pieces as they look to win a fourth Stanley Cup in seven seasons. Chicago is looking to bounce back after losing their last two games to Washington and Minnesota (two of the league's hottest teams). They had won four straight prior to that, and they are a solid 39-15 in their last 54 versus sub .500 teams. They've won four of their last five at the Pepsi Center, and the road team is 8-3 in the last 11 in this series.
LV Traders
Ohio at Akron
Pick: Ohio
This clash between the best two teams in the MAC East may end up being the best game of the day. Keith Dambrot has long been one of my favorite coaches in the country and I hate to bet against the guy. However, it must be done today. His frustration is growing with his team's inability to consistently play team defense... it may be the worst defensive team in the Dambrot era. This plays right into the hands of the defensively astute Bobcats. The Zips still run great stuff and have plenty of guys who can light it up from three but the Bobcats defend the perimeter as well as anyone Akron has seen all year. The offensively oriented Zips will have to work for every basket... which will ultimately lead to continued struggles on the defensive end. Ohio jumped on a bus and took the nearly three-hour trip from Athens... home court is overvalued in this number. This is going to be a great game and there's no way to pass up on taking anything in the ball park of +5.
Ben Burns
Stars vs. Rangers
Play: Under 6
Both these teams are off high-scoring games and games here have been pretty high-scoring all season. That said, an O/U line of six gives us a lot of room to work with. Keep in mind that the Stars average only 2.5 goals per road game.
When these teams met a little over a month ago, at Dallas, the O/U line was 5.5. (It opened at 5.5u125 and closed at 5.5u15.) The result? A 2-0 final score. Nine of the Stars' last 13 visits to MSG have also fallen below the number.
The Stars, who have seen seven of 11 "non-conference" games stay below the total, will be playing a road game with an O/U line of six for just the second time. The first? A 2-1 final at Nashville. Don't be surprised if this one also proves a little lower-scoring than expected.
Stephen Nover
Stars vs. Rangers
Play: Under 6
Dallas isn't the high-scoring team of a year ago. The Stars rank 17th in goals. They have netted only one goal during their past two away matchups. Jamie Benn only has 10 goals with just one in his last 10 games. The Rangers have scored just three goals in their last two home games. I expect a big effort from the Rangers here, but on the defensive end stepping up for goalie Henrik Lundqvist. The teams met last month in Dallas and Lundqvist played great with 27 saves in a 2-0 victory. He also took a cheap shot hit from Cody Eakin that caused him to miss nearly six minutes of that game. New York hasn't forgotten about that hit from Eakin. Lundqvist hasn't been playing well in net and now the pressure is really on him to meet his previous high standards with backup goalie Antti Raanta out probably through the All-Star break. So I see the Rangers rallying to Lundqvist's aid here at the cost of some offense in order to make sure the Stars do little scoring damage.
Brandon Shively
Wolves vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -11
This is one of those rare spots in the NBA where I will look to lay the double digits. The Spurs are coming off a very rare loss as a double digit favorite. I wanted to see how the Spurs have performed in the past when coming off a loss as a double digit favorite.
In the Popovich era, the Spurs are 21-5 SU and 18-7-1 ATS (72%) when coming off a loss as a double digit favorite. Five of these 26 games the Spurs were a double digit favorite and they won 4 of those 5 by 15 points or more. I also added a tightener as when the Spurs opponent is coming off a loss also in this situation, the Spurs are 12-0 SU and 9-2-1 ATS. In these 12 games, the opposing team is shooting below 40% from the floor combined.
The Spurs defense has been getting better behind Popovich’s scheme based on limiting 3 point looks and keeping opponents off the free throw line. They are playing on 2 days rest after playing in Mexico last Saturday. Rest is good for veterans Tony Parker and Pau Gasol.
The Timberwolves have been playing better as of lately, but this team is full of youth and they have a very hard time playing the full 48 minutes of a game. The Spurs are 8-0 SU the last 8 meetings between the Timberwolves with 7 of those 8 wins coming by 14 points or more.
Coming off an ‘ATS’ loss, the Spurs are 5-0 their last 5 since 12/06/16. Their last 3 home games as a favorite coming off an ‘ATS’ loss, they have beaten Toronto by 28, the Nets by 29, and the Lakers by 40. I expect a strong outing from the Spurs tonight.
Jeffrey James
Georgia -6.5
The Bulldogs are playing very well right now and they will be anxious to atone for their last game which was an OT loss at Florida as 11 point dogs. Vandy has lost 3 straight - including 2 home games and they seen to have not recovered from a tough loss to highly ranked Kentucky 2 games ago. UGA has covered 8 of their last 11 conference games, look for them to get this cover here.
David Banks
Michigan @ Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin -10
The 18th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers play host to a struggling Michigan team that has lost three of its last five games on Tuesday night. The Badgers (14-3, 3-1) recovered from just their third loss of the season last week to No. 20 Purdue by shooting 55 percent from 3-point range against Ohio State and pummeling the Buckeyes 89-66. Leading scorer Bronson Koenig led Wisconsin with 21 points as the Badgers won for the 11th time in their last 12 games. They are just a half-game out of first place behind Big Ten leader Maryland (16-2, 4-1).
It’s the first of two games with the Wolverines (12-6, 2-3) this season. Wisconsin pits one of the nation’s best defenses against a Michigan team that struggles in several areas. The Badgers are ninth in the country in points allowed giving up just 60.2 per game. Wisconsin shoots well from the field but when they miss, don’t expect the Wolverines to grab many rebounds. Michigan is 345th out of 351 Division I schools in rebounding averaging just 29.9 per game.
Zak Irvin, a 6-6 senior guard, is the Wolverines leading scorer averaging 14.2 points per game. On the other end, Nigel Hayes, Ethan Happ, and Koenig give Wisconsin three of the best players in the Big Ten conference. Hayes, a 6-8 senior, averages 13.6 points and 5.4 rebounds while Happ, a 6-10 sophomore scores 12.9 points per game and leads the Badgers in rebounding (9.2 per game).
Wunderdog
Houston vs. Miami
Pick: Houston -8.5
Houston is 27-16 ATS following its 137-112 blowout at Brooklyn on Sunday as James Harden scored 22 points and 11 assists and grabbed 11 rebounds. The Rockets shot 51.1 percent and made 21 3-pointers and Eric Gordon added 24 points. Trevor Ariza finished with 23 points and eight rebounds for the Rockets, who have covered the number six of the last eight meetings with Miami. The Heat has lost four straight and is in a downward spiral with only one victory since Dec. 22. Also, the Heat is coming off a rough six-game road trip in which it went 1-5 both straight up and ATS. The Heat lost at Milwaukee on Friday 116-108 even while shooting 49.4 percent, but Miami's defense allowed the Bucks a .500 shooting percentage. Houston is 18-5 ATS against teams with losing records and 17-5 ATS its last 22 road games. The Heat has covered just one of its last five home contests.