Otto Sports
Buffalo at Kent State
Play: Kent State -3
Quietly, the Buffalo Bulls have represented the MAC in the last two NCAA Tournaments. Last year's team was at one point 14-12 and 7-6 in league play but won six out of its last eight games, including three in the MAC Tournament, only to lose to Miami in competitive fashion, 79-72, in the first round. This season hasn't gone nearly as smoothly as the Bulls enter tonight's game at Kent State with a 7-10 record and 1-3 mark in MAC play. Reports have surfaced that there is a negative vibe within the program and it showed last time out as Buffalo was hammered at home by Ball State, 92-77. Here's a snippet from a recap of the game.
After Saturday's second straight home loss, a 92-77 defeat to Ball State, Oats was questioning the mindset and toughness of virtually his entire squad. His team is in a crisis, and it was evident before the opening tip.
Perkins was benched for the first 10 minutes as punishment for his meltdown against Ohio. Oats benched senior guard Willie Conner for the first 6:40 for his technical in that game. Senior Blake Hamilton, UB's best player and last year's MAC title game hero, sat out the first two minutes for dogging it in practice.
Another report indicated that the team's starting lineup was changed due to off-the-court issues between two players as well as a player benched due to lack of effort in practice. All told, it doesn't sound like a good situation.
Meanwhile, Kent State showed capable with a road win over Texas and a 10-point win over Ball State to open up MAC play. But since then, the Golden Flashes have dropped three straight including back-to-back barnburners. They also haven't beaten Buffalo since 2013 which suggests a focused effort against what sounds like a team in disarray. We'll lay the short price with the home favorite tonight.
Jim Feist
Michigan at Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -10
A tough spot for Michigan, winless on the road. Michigan is 0-4 in true road games this season. The Wolverines are 7-19 ATS vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Wisconsin Badgers have won 10 of their last 11 games, including a convincing 89-66 victory against Ohio State on Jan. 12, and can move into a tie with Maryland atop the Big Ten standings by beating the Wolverines for the fifth consecutive time. Wisconsin has won 16 consecutive home games since Jan. 17, 2016 and is 10-0 in Madison this season, outscoring its opponents by an average margin of 27 points. The Badgers have held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 60 points at home and are 17-5 ATS as a favorite.
Bob Balfe
Wisconsin -10.5
Michigan has been very lazy on defense this year and if this team can’t make their 3 point shots they get blown out. Wisconsin is a tough court to play on and this teams experience should give them the edge to put this one away pretty early.
Tony Finn
Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls
Play: Dallas Mavericks +6
The Western Conference Dallas Mavericks are in Chicago tonight for an 8:00 p.m. ET affair against the East’s Bulls (-5.5, 196). The two veteran laden squads take to the United Center hardwood in the Windy City for a non-conference event that means more than what most realize.
The Bulls currently hold the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference Playoff picture with a 21-21 record. Despite the Mavericks 13-27 mark they are only 3.5 half games out of the eighth and final postseason tournament slot in the West. Pedestrian franchises Portland, Denver, Sacramento, New Orleans and Minnesota stand in the way of Mark Cuban’s squad. With over half of the Association season yet to be played and the return of several players that missed court time due to injuries you can count on Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs making a serious run at one of the eight postseason positions in the West before season’s end.
Dallas isn’t just playing to keep their butts out of the Western Conference basement they believe they are a roster that has the talent and experience to be a playoff squad in 2017. The return of Dirk, Jose Barea give the Mavericks six scorers capable of pushing 20-plus points to the boxscore each and every night.
After an inconsistent start to the 2016-17 campaign Wesley Matthews is playing to the form that the Dallas coaching staff expected. In the team’s last two games, both wins, the Dallas shooting guard has scored 18 and 19 points, against Phoenix and Minnesota, respectively. Dallas is playing with more tempo and defending with playoff intensity and are sharing the ball with renewed vigor. Veteran point guard Deron Williams had 10 assists and 13 points in the team’s win over Minnesota on Sunday afternoon. Future Hall of Fame forward/center Nowitzki scored 17 points, recorded three blocks, added 6 rebounds with only one turnover in 28 minutes of playing time.
"That brand of basketball is fun," Matthews shared with the local media after the victory over the Timberwolves Sunday. Dallas registered 21 assists on 36 made field goals in the 98-87 win. "Everybody had energy, and you can feel it in the crowd. We haven't felt that in a long time, and we were moving the ball well."
All reports have the Bulls player personnel healthy again after many of the team members struggled through an early January flu bug. Jimmy Butler is the end all to the Bulls success but he and his ‘mates are playing their third game in four days with Butler seeing 38-plus minutes in both ends of the team’s recent back-to-back contests against Memphis and New Orleans.
The Mavericks are not nearly as dependent on one scorer as the Bulls are. The leading scorer for Dallas, Harrison Barnes, is growing in his role as the squads go-to player. Nowitzki is now at full speed for 28-30 minutes per game after an early season Achilles injury had him inactive for nearly a month.
While the Bulls have won three straight this is a team that is going to be hard pressed to claim a playoff slot at the end of the season. The Bulls do a poor job of sharing the ball and veteran D Wade isn’t the player he was during the championship years in Miami. This is a matchup that is difficult for Chicago and evidence of such came earlier this year when the injury riddled Mavericks put a 25-point arse kicking on Chicago and did so without Dirk and Barea. The Bulls are nothing extra special at the United Center. Chicago has losses to the Knicks, Trail Blazers, Lakers, Timberwolves, Bucks and Wizards as home chalk.
Dallas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games when playing a team with a home winning percentage of .601 or better and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
The Bulls are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games when playing a team with a losing road record on the season.
Head to head against the spread numberx favor the Mavs tonight. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the two clubs and the dog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 overall meetings.
Brad Wilton
When these teams met just 5 days ago they combined for 245 points and the Over.
Maybe not that many will be scored tonight, but I still say the Raptors and the Nets will combine for an Over.
Toronto has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the total, and for the season the Raptors stand at 26-14 Over the posted price through 40 games contested.
Brooklyn also trends towards the Over, as the Nets are 22-17-1 Over the total for the year, and they have played their last pair and 4 of their last 7 overall in the Over column.
Not much defense being played tonight at the Barclays Center, go Over in the Raptors-Nets game for Tuesday.
4* TORONTO-BROOKLYN OVER
BRANDON LEE
Tennessee vs. Ole Miss
Play: Tennessee -2½
Tennessee just won 87-85 at Vanderbilt as a 5.5-point dog and will still be hungry here, as they are just 2-3 in SEC play. Ole Miss on the other hand is a team in bad shape right now. The Rebels are without leading scorer Deandre Burnett and have not looked good without him. He suffered the injury in a 22-point home loss to George, where he played just 13 minutes. He then sat out their 11-point loss at South Carolina and is not expected to play here. Burnett was averaging 18.0 ppg and also led the team in assists (3.1 apg) and is second on the team in 3-pointers made (33). The fact that the Rebels covered as a 12-point dog against the Gamecocks is certainly helping with this line and I like the Volunteers chances of winning this one comfortably.
STEVE JANUS
Pittsburgh vs. NC State
Play: Pittsburgh +3½
Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PITTSBURGH) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This system is 26-6 (81%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons.
DAVE PRICE
Chicago Bulls -5
The Dallas Mavericks have really struggled away from home this season. They are just 5-16 in all road games where they are scoring only 95.3 points per game on 43.4% shooting. The Bulls are a solid 13-8 SU & 11-10 ATS at home this season. Chicago hasn't forgotten its 82-107 loss at Dallas in the first meeting this season and clearly wants revenge. But that was a letdown spot for the Bulls as they were coming off an upset home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers the night before. They will be much more dialed in for this game after having yesterday off following a 108-104 win at Memphis on Sunday. Chicago is 27-14 ATS in its last 41 home games when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points. Dallas is 4-13 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
JACK JONES
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +1
The Los Angeles Lakers come into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing four straight and failing to cover the spread in all four. Now we are getting the Lakers at a good price here because the betting public wants little to do with them right now.
Conversely, the Denver Nuggets come in overvalued after beating Indiana 140-112 and Orlando 125-112 in its last two games. But the Nuggets will be in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after that high-scoring affair. Plus, they are going to be without SG Gary Harris, who injured his ankle last night.
Los Angeles is 21-8 ATS in home games off four or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games playing on 0 days' rest. These two trends go with my theory that the Lakers are undervalued off four straight losses, while the Nuggets are tired after playing last night.
JIMMY BOYD
Raptors vs. Nets
Play: Nets +12
I like the value here with Brooklyn catching a big number at home against the Raptors. These two teams just played last Friday in Toronto with the Raptors winning 132-113 as a 15.5-point favorite. It was a horrible beat for anyone who backed the Nets, as Brooklyn went into the 4th quarter trailing by just 1-point. Now we are getting close to the same number with the Nets at home in a big time revenge spot and while an outright win is unlikely, I like their chances of keeping this close enough to cover.
Brooklyn has played much better at home than on the road and Toronto has not been sharp on the road of late. In fact, the Raptors are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. We also find a couple of strong systems in play. Underdogs of 10 or more, who are off a loss by 10 or more are 76-40 (66%) ATS since 1996 when facing an opponent who has scored and allowed 100+ points in each of their last two games. At the same time, Favorites off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against an opponent off a home loss by 10 or more are just 26-56 (32%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
3G-SPORTS
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Play: Over 227.5
L.A. Lakers are getting ready for the team playing as well, with a nothing to lose mindset - as they are both cellar dwellers in the West. The L.A. Lakers can keep teams on their heels with their pacing - and the Lakers can keep teams confused, because they can score in in awkward clumps. The backcourt of L.A. have been playing at a decent level and Denver isn't equipped to stop them as a unit. Denver has been in a spiraling decline really since about mid December - with no one player who can take over the team on their shoulders and lead them. Their games have been producing a lot of points lately especially in their last 8 games. Even though they may not be the biggest and baddest team on the block - their team play, and scoring potential isn't overlooked. Going up vs the weak D of the Lakers is an interesting mix. Denver will push the tempo and so will the Lakers. The Nuggets played last night and will be winded and the Lakers should score 120 themselves.
MIKE ANTHONY
Toronto at Brooklyn
Play: Over 226.5
The Raptors get to the free throw line a lot. Being ranked 5th in the NBA in FTA - and having a couple guys who get around 6 shots/game at the stripe. So Toronto knows, even if they aren't knocking down shots, they can still manufacture points somewhere. Toronto has been really been a beast with scoring loads of points over the last month. Brooklyn will need to extend the pressure of their guys on the guards of Toronto - to try to win this game. But they won't do it effectively enough as they have allowed teams to knock down 46% of their shots and giving up 114/game on the season. Brooklyn have to keep their guys in front at all times - not enough here vs Toronto. Score fest going on here. Brooklyn likes to throw up 3-pt shots.
FRANK JORDAN
Timberwolves vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -11
Minnesota is 14-27 on the year after a 4-6 record in their last 10 games. Minnesota has struggled on the road this year with a 5-14 mark and is just 7-18 against the West. San Antonio is 31-9 through their first 40 games and have picked up wins in seven of their last 10 games. San Antonio is 18-5 in games against Western conference teams and have played well at home with a 14-5 record. Six weeks ago, these two teams squared off in Minnesota with the Spurs winning 105-91 with Leonard scoring 31 points. Look for another big game from Leonard as the Spurs win by 20 points as they continue their strong play at home
SPORTS WAGERS
VANCOUVER +109 over Nashville
OT included. The Predators have won three in a row for only the third time this season. The last time they put together a three-game winning streak was from Nov. 21 to 25. The Preds followed that three-game winning streak up with a 3-0 loss to Winnipeg. In Nashville’s only other three-game winning streak, they followed it up with a 6-2 loss to the Maple Leafs. Over its past 23 games, Nashville has won successive games just twice. Looking at Nashville’s current winning streak, they defeated Vancouver 2-1 in OT back in Nashville in a game they had no business winning. They also defeated Boston 2-1 but got outshot 36-19 and played most of that game in their own end. Juuse Saros was in goal for Nashville and was sensational. Nashville’s other victory was on Saturday when they fell behind 2-0 to the Avalanche in Colorado but rallied to win, 3-2. All three victories during this current Nashville streak were fortunate one-goal victories and now these imposters are favored on the road? Nashville’s strength of schedule ranks 30th out of 30 teams. For a team in a small market, they are so overvalued because of a sound pedigree for well over a decade but there is nothing appealing about the way the Preds go about their business, as they are almost always the second best team on the ice.
The Canucks not only have more talent than the Preds but they have a much stronger commitment to winning. Although many will argue that Nashville’s talent is superior, if that is true, we have not seen a display of it this year. The Canucks remain a tough out almost every night. Their defense is quietly becoming an elite group that is improving with each passing week. The Canucks and Preds have the exact same number of victories (20) but again, the Preds have played the NHL’s easiest schedule. Also consider that when Vancouver went into Nashville last week, the Preds were a -175 favorite. Now the venue switches to Vancouver and it’s an evenly priced game? We don’t think so. There was tremendous value on the Canucks last week in Nashville and there’s tremendous value on them again here. Wrong side favored.
Dallas +152 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The best news for our continued fade against the Rangers is that Antti Raanta is out, which leaves Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes. The last time we saw Lundqvist was on Saturday night when he was forced into action to start the second period after Raanta was injured. The Rags had a 1-0 lead at that point but it was short-lived, as Montreal scored five times in two periods on 22 shots. Lundqvist was once the best goaltender in the NHL but nobody is immune from the aging and slowing down process and it has hit Lundqvist in a big way. Coach Alain Vigneault knows that Raanta is the better option but because Lundqvist is being paid like he’s as valuable as Lebron James, Vigneault is being forced to use Lundqvist by the people upstairs. Given the choice, Vigneault would use Lundqvist about 10% of the time. Queen Henrik has posted save percentages of .773, .852, .892, .789 and .692 in five of his last seven starts. Over that span, Henrik had good games against Colorado and Philadelphia. The Rangers have dropped two straight and have allowed nine goals against over that span.
Dallas is not high on our radar because they have goaltending problems to go along with a weak defense. Last season when the Stars won the President’s trophy, it was because they were scoring goals at a potent pace. A drop off in production was almost inevitable this year and because the Stars did not address their goaltending situation, they are paying the price this year. The Stars and Rangers are not much different when Lundqvist is in goal. With Raanta out, both teams come in with weak goaltending, weak defense and the ability to score goals. The difference is that the Rangers are a big favorite because of their much better record (and much better puck luck around the net), which provides us with this great opportunity to take back an inflated price.
CALGARY -1½ +222 over Florida
Give the Panthers credit for defeating the Jackets on Saturday night but their inconsistency and poor play overrides anything they do in a single game. Florida has five wins in 22 games against top-16 competition. Prior to defeating the Jackets on Saturday, Florida lost 5-2 at home to the Islanders. What you may read or hear about today is that the Panthers have been solid on the road with four straight victories but those wins occurred against the Stars, Islanders, Avs and Devils. Florida is simply not good enough to keep winning road games and this one is going to be tough because the Flames defense is so good. That bodes well here because Florida creates less high quality scoring chances than 26 of the 30 NHL teams.
Calgary has just two wins in its last six games but it’s not because it is playing poorly. The Flames are the unfortunate recipient of bad luck over that span, as the puck is not going in for them. However, with the point producers and goal scorers that they possess, an uptick in production is inevitable. Pay more attention to Calgary’s outstanding defense that has held opposing teams to just nine goals in their past five games, which includes contests against Edmonton, Winnipeg and San Jose. Calgary has held the opposition to 26, 27, 27, 29, 13, 18, 25 and 28 shots on net in eight of its past nine games. Ironically, the only team to record more than 30 shots on them over that span was the least creative team in the league, the New Jersey Devils. Nonetheless, the Flames’ defense is playing at an extremely high level, which should come as no surprise because of the talent they possess back there. With back-to-back losses and with three undeserving defeats in their last four games, the Flames are in line to go off and this is the perfect opponent to accomplish that against.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +4½ over UIC
Once again we have a situation setting up here where the records do not tell the truth of the two combatants in this Horizon League clash. The Flames of Illinois-Chicago come in with a much more ravishing record of 10-8 compared to that of the Panthers of Wisconsin-Milwaukee who sit at 5-13. In conference play, the Panthers stand at 1-4 compared to the Flames, who are 3-2. On paper, this seems to be another one-sided affair but if the Oakland Golden Grizzlies can serve proof of one irrefutable fact, it is that the numbers are often ever more erroneous in lower card fixtures such as this one, where a team with a losing record can easily defeat a team with a winning record (see Cleveland State and Detroit Mercy yesterday).
Often these upsets materialize as a result of one side playing a padded schedule that affords them a few more easier wins than their foe, who may have succumbed to the rigors of playing a more difficult docket on a few more occasions. When you factor in Milwaukee’s 97th ranked non-conference strength of schedule (SOS) to that of Illinois-Chicago’s 308th ranked non-conference SOS, the makings for an upset are once again in place.
Situational betting has always been our bread and butter. The Flames have done what would be expected of any team with a winning record for the most part. They win games against teams with losing records. The Flames however, were casted as a pooch against Cleveland State, a team that is very similar to Wisconsin-Milwaukee in that they, too, schedule up out of conference games and have been on the losing end against some excellent basketball teams. It can be inferred that perhaps Illinois-Chicago has been punching above its weight and is in line for some attrition of sorts. When you look at their body of work overall and see wins against Roosevelt and Chicago State with nasty defeats at Eastern Illinois and Grand Canyon, the Flames record seems to be a bit of a charade, as they do not have the consistency or résumé of a winning team.
While the Panthers stand at 5-13 on the year overall they are 9-7 ATS for a reason. This is a team that has been undervalued far more than they should and has not been given due credit for some of the results they have fostered. This is an outfit that hung tough with teams such as Green Bay, Middle Tennessee State, Ohio and Memphis on the road while also giving Belmont a good fight when they came to town as well. All five of these teams were at one point in contention or qualified for the 2016 Men’s Basketball Tournament. The only team that the Flames have encountered remotely close in caliber to any of these aforementioned teams is the paper tiger Oakland Golden Grizzlies. Additionally, this is a Panthers team that has pulled off a victory as a double-digit dog against UC Irvine, soundly defeated Northern Kentucky as a four-point pooch and beat Montana State as an 8½-point underdog. When being spotted six points or more, the Panthers are 6-2 ATS, which shows the tremendous value on them. Milwaukee-Wisconsin has won six of its previous seven against the Flames, thus, they’ll come into this one with a psychological advantage with the mindset of expecting to win. Look for quality of competition to be the difference maker in this affair and thus, we’re going to play the underdog to win outright for 1 unit and we’ll take the points for another unit to make up our traditional 2-unit bet.