Will Rogers
Ottawa vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis
The set-up:The 22-15-4 Ottawa Senators will be in St. Louis tonight, where the Senators will open a three-game road trip with a game against the Blues, which also represents the official start to the second half of Ottawa's season. St. Louis (23-16-5) is off a 4-0 win Saturday in San Jose and a 2-1 overtime triumph in Anaheim on Sunday night, marking the first time the Blues have won back-to-back games since a three-game winning streak ended on Dec. 1.
Ottawa: Surprisingly, Ottawa is holding down a playoff spot at the halfway point of the season, despite the lengthy absence of No. 1 netminder Craig Anderson, who is away from the team to be with his wife as she receives treatment for cancer. "The goal was to be in the mix at the middle of the season regardless if there was all these things happening to us and we did it," head coach Guy Boucher. However, Ottawa is set to be tested, beginning with this three-game road trip, the Senators will play five times in an eight-day span, including a pair of dates with Columbus and one against Metropolitan-leading Washington.
St. Louis: After finally getting back-to-back wins, why stop there? That's the Blues' mentality as they try for a third consecutive win when they return home Tuesday night. "On the road, especially, it's a good feeling," said defenseman Alex Pietrangelo. "I think we not only found our game, but found our game on the road, which has obviously been a cause for concern for us." Both wins came with backup Carter Hutton in goal, playing in place of struggling starter Jake Allen. Allen was pulled early in three of his last five starts but coach Ken Hitchcock has not said whether Allen or Hutton will get the start against the Senators.
The pick: Ottawa has won its last three visits to St. Louis, each in a shootout. However, regardless of who is in goal for St. Louis, the Blues are 16-5-4 on home ice this season and I'll back them here.
Rob Veno
St. Bonaventure at Saint Louis
Play: Under 141.5
Without starting point guard and leading scorer Jaylen Adams (22.2 ppg) in the lineup the past two games, St. Bonaventure’s high octane offense has been slowed considerably. This past Saturday at a neutral site in Rochester, NY, the Bonnies defeated Fordham 73-53 and prior to that they lost 78-61 at Richmond. Tonight in their third straight game away from home and their longest A-10 road trip, they may have to go without Adams again. And, for the second straight game St. Bonaventure is going to be faced with a methodical, patient, half court style team. St. Louis ranks #299 in the KenPom adjusted tempo ratings which mirrors the #302 position Fordham has. The Rams were able to contain the number of shot attempts in Saturday’s game vs. the Bonnies which led to only 262 potential points in that game. 48.2% of those points were scored which is solid offensive efficiency but the final score only totaled 126.
Saint Louis meanwhile has been without their starting PG and leading scorer Jermaine Bishop for the last eight games. The Billikens array of youth and injuries have been key cogs in a miserable offensive season (worst in A-10 61 ppg and 39.4 FG%) and before the season started, Travis Ford referred to his squad as limited offensively. Unable to truly implement his 94-foot style, Ford has tried to mask the team’s offensive deficiencies by retaining their style from recent years and it’s allowed them keep their first five A-10 game results to an average of 135.2 ppg.
SLU has played a combination of quicker paced and highly efficient A-10 offenses in their last four games so seeing St. Bonaventure tonight will not be anything new. Even if Adams plays for the Bonnies tonight, must note that he played 40 minutes fully healthy in the pair of meetings last season and those games totaled 127 and 143. With the fundamentals and situationals presented to us here, the current game total of 141.5 seems a bit high which signals a look toward the under.
Dr. Bob
Opinion – MISSISSIPPI STATE (+14½) over Kentucky
Mississippi State has won three consecutive games, all as underdogs, and the Bulldogs should have the confidence to battle with mighty Kentucky on their home floor. To compete with Kentucky a team has to make their outside shots and the Bulldogs have the shooters to keep this game competitive. The Wildcats are 2-4 ATS against teams that make 37% or more of their 3-point shots for the season and they gave up 100 points in one of the two games they did cover (beat N. Carolina 103-100). Their only road game against a good shooting team was an 87-81 win as an 11 ½ point favor at Vanderbilt and I think the Bulldogs have a good chance to stay with the big number in this game.
Mississippi State applies to a 78-38-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation and my ratings favor Kentucky by just 13 points, so the line is more than fair. I don’t have quite enough value to make this game a Best Bet but I’ll lean with the Bulldogs and I’d take Mississippi State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +15 points or more.