Free Picks for Wednesday, Tuesday, January 24th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
BOWLING GREEN AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN
PLAY: BOWLING GREEN +6.5
Now that we’re into the later stages of January and a good number of conference games are already in the archives, I can start playing one of my favorite angles.
There’s really not much more than some common sense involved here. I like the idea of identifying mediocre teams who are giving more than two possessions, and siding with the underdog. The logic here is pretty simple. Bad teams don’t do very well when it comes to getting straight up wins, let alone doing so by enough to cover a good sized spread.
The fly in the ointment is that one has to also be willing to be wagering on teams that might be even worse. Obviously, if Team A is lousy and is spotting three possessions to Team B, then it follows that Team B is likely pretty terrible. Nevertheless, this is a theory I’ve had fun with for several years and it’s in play in this game.
Bowling Green is not good. The Falcons are a lower level MAC team, so there’s not much in the way of positives to bestow on this squad. But if Central Michigan is the better team in this matchup, it’s not by a big margin. Tonight’s game between the Falcons and Chippewas figures to be fast-paced and the home team will be hoisting threes from start to finish. If CMU has a big night fro beyond the arc, they probably win this big. The Chips are also nails from the foul line, so there’s always the chance they could extend a late lead.
But for me, the bottom line is catching more than two possessions against a team that isn’t really deserving of giving this many points. I’ll take the points with Bowling Green.
Ben Burns
Flames vs. Canadiens
Play: Canadiens -191
The Flames are struggling right now and are off a loss at Toronto last night. Thats noteworthy as they're just 3-6 when playing the second of b2b games, 1-6 when doing so on the road. That includes an 0-5 mark the last five times that they played on the road, after playing the previous day. With the Canadiens, who are 16-8 at home, off two day's rest, consider "laying the wood."
Scott Spreitzer
Villanova vs. Marquette
Play: Villanova -5
I'm laying the points with Villanova on Tuesday night as the Wildcats aim for the season sweep of Marquette. The defending champs beat the Golden Eagles 93-81 on January 7, nailing 65% of their FGA and a sizzling, 14 of 23 from behind the arc. While it's unlikely the 'Cats will put up those numbers tonight, the fact is, Marquette does leave a lot to be desired on the defensive end and they will play at Villanova's desired tempo. The Eagles are off a win in Omaha, but caught the Creighton Blue Jays in their first full game without National MVP candidate Maurice Watson, Jr., and the Jays are certainly a few rungs lower without him. Marquette is allowing teams to make 45% of their FGA and nearly 39% of their 3-pointers, ranking 325th in the nation. They're also rather anemic on the glass, another area where Villanova should shine tonight. The Wildcats have been true road warriors, covering eight of their last 10 on the road against teams playing better than .600 home basketball. They're also on a 16-5 ATS run when laying less than seven points. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles have covered just three of their last 13 as a home dog. We'll look for Villanova to cover for the 6th straight time at Marquette.
Sean Murphy
Blues vs. Penguins
Play: Over 6
This is the first time we've seen a posted total of six in this matchup since October of 2009, but the relatively high number is warranted in my opinion.
The Blues can't keep the puck out of their net right now, having allowed a whopping 18 goals during their three-game losing streak.
The Penguins are obviously primed to take full advantage, having scored 24 goals during their four-game winning streak.
Note that the Blues are giving up 3.5 goals per game on the road this season while the Pens have put up a whopping 4.1 goals per contest at home.
Last year's two meetings in this series each produced an identical seven goals. Expect a similar story to unfold at PPG Paints Arena on Tuesday.
Mike Anthony
Spurs vs. Raptors
Play: Over 209
The San Antonio backcourt are always looking up court to find their stars, their outstanding frontcourt guys as well as anyone in the NBA. They can get this San Antonio team moving in a hurry down court and scoring, as their 107/game indicates. San Antonio has been shooting a league leading 41% from deep which isn't easy to defend. San Antonio on their road trip is still San Antonio. San Antonio will have Toronto on the ropes in a hurry with their ball movement and great knock down shooters. The frontcourt of Toronto have suffered with some injuries and the offensive rebounding being given up to opponents, has proven that, and their team is damaged because of this. Toronto is recently coming off their own road trip, getting home will be nice, but the Spurs are not a standard visitor.
Cajun Sports
San Diego State vs. Air Force
Play: San Diego State -6
San Diego State Aztecs -6 Both teams enter tonight’s contest on three-game streaks albeit one is winning and one losing. The Aztecs are riding a three-game straight up and against the spread win streak while the Flyboys are riding a three-game losing streak but they were able to cover the last two of those against the spread. The Falcons have struggled against the spread when coming off a three-game losing skid posting a record of only 19-30-1 ATS. They are also 7-16-1 coming off back-to-back spread victories. San Diego State is 41-25-1 ATS when installed as a favorite of three to six and half points. The Aztecs playing in the current price range and coming off a road game their last time out have posted a record of 21-8-2 ATS in this situation. We recommend laying the chalk and back the Aztecs on the road on Tuesday night as they roll past an overmatched group of Falcons.
Brandon Shively
Akron vs. Western Michigan
Pick: Western Michigan
This is going to be mainly a ‘situational’ play on Western Michigan tonight. It has to deal with MAC home dogs this year along with a home team coming off a pair of road losses and Akron riding a 9 game win streak that has signals it will be ending soon.
MAC home dogs are 7-2-1 ATS this year. 9 of the 10 games have been decided by 5 points or fewer. One game that was a blowout involved Western Michigan who was a homedog, coming off 2 road losses, the same situation for tonight.
Western Michigan is 12-3 ATS as a home underdog since the 2012-13 season of 4 or less points, winning ALL 12 games straight up. When coming in off back to back losses, the Broncos are 9-0 ATS as a homedog the last 10 years! They won 7 straight up and lost the other two by 2 and 3 points only.
Akron is on a 9 game win streak. They have played 2 MAC road games and won only by 4 in both games. They were losing in the 2nd half of both games. There is a distraction here also for Akron. They have an upcoming revenge game against Buffalo. Buffalo beat Akron last year in the MAC Championship that kept the Zips out of the NCAA tourney.
As a road favorite of 4 points or less, Akron is 5-11 ATS since 2012. This is a strong situational play here and over-rides the head to head matchup I feel.
LV Traders
Auburn at South Carolina
Pick: Auburn
Auburn is very young but loaded with athleticism. This is a quickly improving team and is going to be a force by the end of the season. Getting all these points with the Tigers won't be happening as much moving forward. South Carolina will be ready to go... it is the best defensive team in the country and was just embarrassed at Kentucky. It's just that the Gamecocks don't have enough offense to pull away from the Tigers. This is going to be a good one.
Jim Feist
Utah St at New Mexico
Pick: Over
Utah State is having trouble on defense, allowing 74 and 95 points in two of its last three games. The Aggies are 28-9 over the total in Mountain West play. New Mexico is home, where the offense clicks best, and the over is 11-5 in Lobos last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. And the over is 4-1 when these rivals clash.
Rocketman
Villanova @ Marquette
Play: Villanova -5
The Villanova Wildcats travel to Marquette to take on the Golden Eagles on Tuesday night. Villanova is 19-1 SU overall this year while Marquette comes in with a 13-6 SU overall record on the season. Villanova is 60-9 SU and 44-23 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. Villanova is 17-7 ATS last 3 years against good offensive teams scoring 77 points per game or more. Marquette is 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS last 3 years against good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less after 15 or more games. Villanova is scoring 78.6 points per game overall this year, 77.1 points per game on the road this season and 79.2 points per game their past 5 games overall. Villanova is allowing only 62 points per game overall this year, 61.2 points per game their past 5 games overall and 63.4 points per game against conference opponents this season. Marquette is allowing 83.8 points per game their past 5 games overall and 79.1 points per game in conference games this year. Villanova is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS overall vs Marquette past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Villanova tonight!
Art Aronson
Blue Jackets vs. Islanders
Play: Blue Jackets -130
Columbus comes in off a 7-6 OT win at Ottawa, while the Isles enter off a 3-2 OT home loss to the Flyers. Columbus has won three of its last four. Jackets’ netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is 28-9 with a 1.98 GAA on the year, including 11-5 with a 2.19 GAA on the road. He’s also dominated New York throughout his career, going 12-4 with a 2.24 GAA. Note that Columbus is ranked third in scoring at 3.33 GPG, while ranked fourth in goals allowed at just 2.28 GPG. The Isles turn to goaltender Thomas Greiss, who is 12-9 with a 2.30 GAA on the season, and 4-5 with a 2.77 GAA lifetime against Columbus. Note that the Isles average 2.84 GPG and allow 2.89. Also note that the Blue Jackets are 11-4 in their last 15 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation, while the Islanders are just 2-5 in their last seven after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. We think the Blue Jackets superior goaltending and offense prove too much for the inconsistent Islanders.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -4
I'm going to go against the public here and jump on the Mountaineers as a small home favorite against the Jayhawks. Kansas comes into this game having won 18 straight, as they have not lost since falling to Indiana in their opener. This will be the first time the Jayhawks are listed as a dog, since being a 2-point dog on a neutral court against Duke. For West Virginia to be laying 4-points here, the books have to feel pretty good about them winning this game, as they know the public will be all over Kansas. Keep in mind the Mountaineers have lost 2 straight, including a 87-89 defeat to Oklahoma as a 16.5-point favorite in their last home game.
This West Virginia team is certainly capable of knocking off this Kansas team and doing so by 5+ points. The Mountaineers are 10-1 at home and it's not easy leaving Morgantown with a win. West Virginia is also catching the Jayhawks at the right time. As big as this game is to the Mountaineers, Kansas has a massive showdown on deck this Saturday at Kentucky. West Virginia is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games on a Tuesday night, while the Jayhawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 when playing only their 2nd game in a week.
Jesse Schule
Kings vs. Devils
Play: Under 5
The Devils don't score a lot of goals, ranking 28th in the NHL averaging just 2.2 goals per game. They've won four of their last five overall though, and they've been great defensively during that span. They host the LA Kings tonight, the Los Angeles is one of the better defensive teams in the league, allowing just 2.5 goals per game (ranked 7th). The Kings have lost four straight, and they failed to score more than two goals in all four of those games. These two teams have a history of playing close, low scoring games. Seven of the last 10 head to head meetings have come up short of the total, and the under is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings. The Devils have only gone over once in their last eight games overall. There's every reason to expect another low scoring battle here tonight.
Mike Lundin
Flames vs. Canadiens
Play: Under 5½
The Calgary Flames have allowed a total of 15 goals through three consecutive losses, but I think we'll see a low-scoring affair when they visit the Montreal Canadiens Tuesday night. The Flames were shut out in a 4-0 loss at Toronto last night, and the schedule has been brutal lately for Calgary. Under is 10-1-3 in Flames' last 14 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 days situation. The Habs had played three straight unders before a 3-2 overtime loss against Buffalo on Saturday was a push with the total set at five goals. The Flames are averaging just 2.00 goals per game on the road, and the over/under is 7-15 in Calgary's 22 road games this season.