Matt Fargo
Kansas vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -4
West Virginia comes in as a pretty significant favorite here against No. 2 Kansas but the Mountaineers are in a great spot to pull off the win that many will say is an upset despite the Mountaineers being favorites. West Virginia went 15-2 through its first 17 games but has dropped its last two games by a combined six points against Oklahoma and Kansas St. Both of those were upsets and we will see an inspired effort at home and the Mountaineers will be far from intimidated here considering they have won the last three meetings at home against Kansas. The Jayhawks lost their season opener against Indiana but have since run off 18 straight victories including their first seven in the Big XII. None of those conference wins have been against upper echelon teams however and this game begins a tough three-game stretch with a game at Kentucky Saturday and a home game against Baylor next Wednesday. This is a similar spot when the Mountaineers hosted Baylor back on January 10 as the Bears came in undefeated at 15-0 and were shellacked by 21 points. The Mountaineers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record while the Jayhawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning straight up record.
Matt Josephs
Southern Illinois vs. Wichita State
Play: Wichita State -17½
The Shockers have been pounding teams at home during conference play this season. Wichita State has wins by 26, 12, 25 and 34 already in MVC games. They beat teams with good balanced scoring and really good defense. Markis McDuffie leads the way with 12.3 points per game and is one of five who average at least eight. The Salukis have lost two straight and three of their last four. They have had an inconsistent offense and a defense that has struggled against the better offenses in the league. Wichita State has no soul and has no problems blowing teams out. They've covered 19 of their last 29 at home as a favorite of 12.5 points or more. Last year they beat SIU by 21 and 25 with wins by 12 and 22 the year before that. I think this is another blowout in the making.
Will Rogers
Utah vs. Denver
Pick: Denver -2
The set-up: The Utah Jazz had a six-game winning streak snapped after Monday's 97-95 home loss to Oklahoma City in a matchup of the top teams in the Northwest Division. The 29-17 Jazz still lead the Thunder by 2 1/2 games and will travel to Denver Tuesday night, to face the 18-25 Nuggets.
Utah: Despite last night's loss, the Jazz are making a convincing case that this year's team is a solid playoff team for the 2016-17 season. SF Gordon Hayward and Rudy Gobert have built strong cases for a spot in the upcoming All Star game while PG George Hill (18.40-3.7-4.1) has made management look smart for trading for the 30-year-old veteran in the off-season. The Jazz are 17-5 with Hill in the lineup, including 10-0 when Hill scores 20 or more points in a game. Hayward is averaging career highs in points (22.1), rebounds (5.7) and free-throw shooting percentage (87.3). Center Rudy Gobert had just nine rebounds against Oklahoma City, halting a streak of 30 consecutive double-digit rebounding efforts, but leads the league in blocked shots per game (2.50), ranks second in field-goal percentage (64.4) and fifth in rebounds (12.6), while scoring 12.9 PPG. The Jazz allow the fewest points in the league (95.3) while ranking second in opponents' FG percentage (43.3).
Denver: In stark contrast to the Jazz,who are vying for a top-four seed in the Western Conference, the Nuggets are just trying to get into the playoffs. They currently hold the eighth and final seed in the conference but there is a lot of basketball left for them to either secure a postseason spot or fall out for the fourth straight season. More games like Sunday night, won't help the cause. Denver led Minnesota by nine points in the fourth quarter but crumbled in the final two minutes, settling for a disappointing 111-108 loss. "We just turned the ball over too consistently," guard Jamal Murray told The Denver Post after the loss. "There wasn't a stretch when we didn't turn it over. Our offense kept us in the game, but it should be the other way around; our defense should keep us in the game." Murray (8.0) saw his minutes increase with the absence of starting PG Emmanuel Mudiay (12.1 & 4.2 APG), who didn't make the one-game road trip because of lower back soreness. It bothered him before Saturday's win over the Los Angeles Clippers and then it became too much to play when he was knocked to the ground on a hard, legal screen by Clippers center DeAndre Jordan in the third quarter. Mudiay's status for Tuesday is unknown. However, the Nuggets did see the return of guard Gary Harris (12.8) from a right ankle sprain, and he responded with a team-high 22 points. He has missed 19 games with various injuries this season but came back strong against the Timberwolves.
The pick: Tough spot for the Jazz in this one, coming off a two-point loss to the Thunder in a game they were looking to show OKC that they were 'boss' in the Northwest. Denver did lose a close one to Minnesota on Sunday but had won four of its previous five contests. The Nuggets are averaging 109.8 PPG (4th), led by Gallinari (16.9), Chandler (16.2) and center Jokic (15.0 & 8.3). That average jumps to 113.2 PPG at home plus the Nuggets are averaging 121.7 points over their past six games, with Jokic averaging 25.5 points and 11 rebounds during the stretch.
Power Sports
Virginia vs. Notre Dame
Pick: Virginia
For whatever reason, it's been a slow climb for Virginia back up the Top 25 rankings. To me, this is one of the best teams in the country, yet they're still not even in the Top 10. They did lose B2B games around the New Year, but since then have won four straight, three of them in pretty convincing fashion. The only game the Hoos failed to cover during this win streak came Saturday and that was because they were big (17 point) favorites vs. Georgia Tech. Still, they allowed only 49 points.
Notre Dame is always tough in South Bend, thus the oddsmakers have this ACC showdown basically as a pick em. Sharp money appears to be on the road team, however, as I think the professional bettors would certainly agree with me as to which is the better team here. Granted, the Fighting Irish have six straight. But they've also had a lot of close games go their way. Saturday marked a rare blowout (over Syracuse), but this will be the toughest test since losing to Villanova back on December 10th.
Virginia has covered all four meetings as ACC rivals, including a 77-66 win in Charlottesville last year. Defensively, Tony Bennett's squad is again among the most stingy in the nation, allowing just 53.2 points per game. Notre Dame has averaged just 56 PPG against the "Pack Line" defense the L4 years and has lost by an average margin of 13.2 PPG. They've never shot better than 49% against the Cavaliers.
David Banks
Kentucky @ Tennessee
Pick: Kentucky -9.5
The fifth-ranked Kentucky Wildcats are continuing business as usual in the SEC having won seven straight to start the conference season. Head coach John Calipari’s Wildcats (17-2, 7-0) knocked off No. 24 South Carolina 85-69 on Saturday to take command of the conference. The Gamecocks (15-4, 5-1) were previously unbeaten but had no answers for Kentucky leading scorer Malik Monk who tallied 27 points. It was Monk’s fifth game of 25 points or more this season, moving Monk into second place behind Jamal Murray who had six such games in his first year at Kentucky.
The Wildcats will take on Tennessee on Tuesday night. The Volunteers (10-9, 3-4) are struggling having lost four of their last six games. Surprisingly, Tennessee has played its best basketball in losses to five ranked teams including early season defeats to Oregon and North Carolina, a pair of games Tennessee lost by a combined six points. Athletically, it will be tough for the Vols to match Kentucky.
Head coach Rick Barnes goes 11 deep into his bench. Tennessee is led by Robert Hubbs III, a 6-5 senior who scores 14.7 points per game. Grant Williams (10.8 ) and Detrick Mostella (10.5) are the only other double figures scorers for Tennessee. Barnes and company will have to keep pace with the Wildcats, the nation’s No. 3 scoring team averaging 92.9 points per game. Freshman De’Aaron Fox (16.2), Isaiah Briscoe (14.3) and Edrice Adebayo (13.1) all average in double figures for the Wildcats. Fox did leave the South Carolina game with an ankle injury and his status is uncertain for Tuesday.
Wunderdog
Purdue @ Michigan St
Pick: Purdue -2
Tom Izzo has a long history of elite teams during his tenure at Michigan State. His teams have won 27 games or more in seven of the last eight seasons, but at 12-8 this year, he is definitely in rebuilding mode. While his team is 9-1 straight-up at home on the season, they have been -10 or more chalk in seven of those. Purdue is having a great season at 16-4 and have been well above the line at 11-6 ATS. The Boilermakers are a sharp shooting team, connecting on over 49% and have knocked down three-pointers at an impressive rate, nailing 40.6% on the season. I think that is where the difference lies in this contest, so play on Purdue.
Alex Smith
St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Play: Over 6
One of the best clubs in the NHL looks to keep its winning ways going tonight as the Pittsburgh Penguins host the St. Louis Blues. The defending Stanley Cup champs are on a four-game winning streak that included an astronomical 24 goals. Pittsburgh leads the league with 3.67 goals per game and have fired off 30 or more shots in nine of its last 11 contests. Forwards Conor Sheary and Evgeni Malkin have been on fire over their last 10 games with a combined 16 goals and 11 assists. Sidney Crosby had three goals and 10 assists within that same span.
St. Louis has been struggling of late, dropping five of its last seven contests; 28 goals allowed in those five losses. Starting goaltender Jake Allen has given up 14 goals in his last four appearances and has been pulled in four of his last six starts. Head coach Ken Hitchcock was forced to start Carter Hutton in net for three games and GM (and former Hall-of-Fame goalie) Martin Brodeur went so far as to call up Pheonix Copley from AHL to make his first career start in Saturday's 5-3 loss at Winnipeg. The 25-year old Alaska native will back-up Hutton for this contest before returning to the minor club shortly afterwards. Brodeur, when asked about Allen's struggles, said "He’s good enough, he’s talented enough, he’s got a great technique to fall back on, it’s just a matter of repetition and getting it done. For me, everything is in his own hands, he’s the one that’s going to come out, we can’t do it for him. We’re just going to help him to get himself the best peace of mind possible. We’ve talked to him and we do have a lot of faith him, so I don’t think that should be a concern for him going forward. If that was a doubt that he had in his mind, well, that’s disappeared now because I think we were pretty clear about that.”
St. Louis has gone over in seven of their last nine contests while Pittsburgh is 8-4 O/U in its last 12 games. The Penguins are 1-1 O/U in a pair of contests lined at 6 and went over in a 7-1 win versus Carolina; the first 6.5 total posted during the "Shootout Era" dating back to 2005. This one is properly lined at 6 and I expect another goal-fest here in the Steel City.
ASA
Villanova at Marquette
Play: Villanova -5
The Golden Eagles are coming off a huge road win @ Creighton, however the Blue Jays were playing their first game without star guard Maurice Watson who was injured in their previous game @ Xavier. Marquette shot a ridiculous 60% from the field vs a Creighton team that’s known for its offense but not its defense. Expect those numbers to drop drastically facing a Villanova team that is among the top defensive teams in the nation. The Cats are especially adept at shutting down opponents from the 3 point line. The allow opposing teams to hit 29% of their attempts from beyond the arc which is the 9th best mark in the nation. That is a key here as Marquette shoots A LOT of 3’s with 36% of their points coming from deep. Offensively, the Cats are 3rd nationally in offensive efficiency and playing into a poor Marquette defense that has allowed 4 of their 7 Big East opponents to reach at least 86 points. How much better is Nova than Marquette? These two met a few weeks ago and they were dead even in FT makes (15), Marquette had 14 more FG attempts and Villanova still won by 12 points. The game wasn’t nearly that close as the Wildcats led by 30 points with just 5:30 remaining in the game before they backed way off and Marquette made it at least semi-reasonable. Nova comes in at 19-1 and they’ve beaten much better opponents on the road already this season (Purdue & Creighton – when they were full strength). Besides beating a short handed Creighton team, the Eagles have not done well when stepping up in competition as they are just 1-4 in their other games vs top 50 competition. The favorite has covered 90% of the games in this series over the last 10 meetings. The last 3 meetings here at the Bradley Center Villanova won by 9, 10, and 11 points. We see another double digit win for the much better team.
ASA
Boston at Washington
Play: Boston
We like the visitor tonight when the Celtics travel to Washington to face the Wizards. This is a great spot to play a good team off a bad loss as the C’s fell to the Blazers at home on Saturday (12-5 SU off a loss this year). They catch a Wizards team playing their 4th game in six days and the second night of a back to back as they were in Charlotte last night. When playing without rest the Wiz are just 2-7 SU on the season. Boston is a really good road team with a 13-9 SU record and the 4th best point differential away from home of +1.9PPG. Washington is 18-6 SU at home and have won 13 straight games on their home court BUT only 4 of those teams have winning records and two of those are Indiana and Charlotte who are barely above .500. Don’t you find it interesting that the oddsmakers have Boston favored here with Washington on a 13-game winning streak? I think they want us to bet the Wizards and we WON’T bite!
Brad Powers
San Diego St. -6
San Diego St is starting to come on very strong in the Mountain West with 3 straight wins and covers. This is a team that I have power-rated as the best team in the conference despite only having the 7th best record (that screams line value). When backing a road favorite, usually you want to have a significant edge and the Aztecs have one on the defensive end with a massive No. 44 vs No. 305 rating in KenPom's defensive efficiency ratings. Finally, Air Force could be a little tired coming off a double OT loss at UNLV on Saturday.
Stephen Nover
Stars +110
The Stars are in a great home ambush spot here. Dallas has been idle the past two days, while the Wild is playing for the fifth time in eight days and third time in four days. This is Minnesota's first road matchup in five games and the Wild go right back home to host the Blues on Thursday.
Dallas nearly beat the Capitals in its last game losing in overtime. The Stars' offense could be coming around with 20 goals in their last six games. The Stars have revenge here for 5-4 home loss to Minnesota 10 days ago.
Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk is having a great season, but historically has struggled against Dallas.
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play is Michigan State to spring the upset at home over Purdue.
This Purdue team has given me fits this season. I back them and they lay an egg. I go against them, and they step up and deliver the goods.
That being said, I will go against them tonight, as I want to see if they can step up on the road at a place they have not been able to perform well at over the years.
This may not be Tom Izzo's best team, but there is always talent on Michigan State, and a win tonight would be a heck of a springboard for them.
The Spartans are just 12-8, and they may be coming off back-to-back conference road losses, but they are back home for this game tonight, and there is nothing wrong with their 9-1 straight up mark this season in East Lansing.
Michigan State has owned Purdue, taking 8 of the last 9 series meetings straight up, and they have covered in 7 of those 9 series meetings.
Let's see if Purdue is able to step up and slay a team that has been a thorn in their side for quite some time now.
I am betting against that happening.
3* MICHIGAN STATE
Chris Jordan
My free play for Tuesday is on my favorite college basketball team: the Kansas Jayhawks.
Get used to me using games involving Kansas, whether I'm on or against it. Some days I may see the oddsmakers giving too many points away, others I'll see value. Tonight, I like the second-ranked Jayhawks to end their string of bad luck in Morgantown, West Virginia, and vie for the outright win over the Mountaineers.
Anyone else remember last season's visit to the Coliseum, when then-No. 1 Kansas lost 74-63? National player of the year candidate Frank Mason was horrendous, as he committed a career-worst seven turnovers, as the Jayhawks wilted behind a bevy of mistakes caused by West Virginia's stringent press.
Here we are less than two months from the madness, and the Jayhawks (18-1, 7-0 Big 12) are riding an 18-game winning streak that is tied for the nation's longest. And I think Mason has had this game circled for quite some time. I think he and fellow senior Landon Lucas will be looking to end their 0-3 record in Morgantown, and pull this one out.
West Virginia (15-4, 4-3) was just served back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State, and may be reeling a bit. The Mountaineers couldn't be slumping at a worse time. West Virginia's full-court press isn't as threatening right now, either, as the nation's best top turnover-margin team is a combined minus-11 in its last two losses.
Look for Kansas' balanced lineup, that also includes Devonte Graham and freshman Josh Jackson, to light up the scoreboard in this one, as the Jayhawks continue their quest toward a 13th consecutive Big 12 title.
Road dog here.
2* KANSAS
Eric Schroeder
I'm taking a shot with tonight's complimentary winner, on the Air Force Falcons catching points at home against the San Diego State Aztecs. I know it's a longshot, but this also a mere free play, and that's where we take shots like this.
See, Air Force comes in riding a three-game losing streak, but the losses were by 4, 7 and 2, to San Jose State, at Nevada and at UNLV, respectively. Those last two are the ones that should provide confidence back at home.
San Diego State is not the same San Diego State we've become used to in the past. The Aztecs may be on a three-game win streak, but that followed a three-game slide of their own. Now on the road in this altitude, in a funky climate that can leave a chill to the bone even inside the arena, I think this is a good spot to play the home pup.
Take Air Force here.
1* AIR FORCE
STEVE JANUS
Purdue vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State +2½
Play Against - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PURDUE) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). This system is 37-14 (73%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons.