BRANDON LEE
Jazz / Nuggets Under 211.5
The Jazz are 29th out of 30 teams in pace of play, averaging just 93.5 possessions per game and will be playing well below their normal pace tonight, as they are on no rest after a grueling game against OKC last night and this will be their 4th game in 5 nights, which is a very difficult scheduling spot in today's NBA. The fact that Denver isn't seen as a team that plays low-scoring games, has this total too high. These two division rivals have a history of going under the total. In fact, 9 of the last 11 games in the series have finished below the mark. UNDER is also a perfect 9-0 in the Jazz's last 9 games when they come having failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games.
ALEX SMART
Wild -111
Dallas (19-20-9) has played their best hockey at home this season as is evident by a 12-7-5 record as hosts, but one of those seven losses came Jan. 14 against the Wild. With that said, Minnesota (30-11-5), which is 14-5-5 on the road and 9-4-2 against the Central, looks like the right side in this tilt. DALLAS is 4-11 ATS L/15 against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% or more of shots against this season and 1-7 ATS against top tier defensive teams like the Wild - allowing 2.4 or less goals/game this season.MINNESOTA is 16-4 ATS against good offensive teams like the Stars - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game this season.
JOHN MARTIN
Bulls vs. Magic
Play: Bulls -2
The Orlando Magic are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall. They are coming off a home loss to the Golden State Warriors on Sunday by 20 points and won't be nearly as excited to play the Bulls tonight as they were the Warriors. The Magic have several injury problems right now as Evan Fournier, Jodie Meeks and D.J. Augustin are all out right now. The Bulls are fully healthy and come in rested having last played on Saturday, getting 2 days off to prepare for the Magic tonight. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 2 days rest. Chicago blasted Orlando 112-80 in their lone meeting this season. I think the Bulls get the win and cover with relative ease tonight.
BLACK WIDOW
Auburn vs. South Carolina
Play: Auburn +9.5
Bets on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a blowout home win by 20 points or more against an opponent that is coming off a road loss by 10 points or more are 62-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. This situation's record is 4-0 this season alone. I believe this is a flat spot for South Carolina off its road loss to Kentucky on Saturday.
DAVE PRICE
Virginia vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -1
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers as only 1-point home favorites tonight against West Virginia. All they've done is go a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They are 17-3 on the season with their only losses coming by 8 to Villanova on a neutral, by 5 to Purdue on a neutral and by 3 on the road at Florida State. But the Fighting Irish are a perfect 12-0 in home games, winning by an average of 22.5 points per game. They are also 5-1 ATS in their lined home games, and they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
JACK JONES
Timberwolves +1
After opening the season 0-7 in one-possession games, the Minnesota Timberwolves have gotten some breaks to finally go their way. They have won each of their last two games by exactly 3 points, improving to 2-7 in one-possession games.
Obviously, that record in close games just goes to show how undervalued the Timberwolves are this season. And they come in playing their best basketball of the year, going 5-2 SU in their last seven games, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests.
Phoenix is coming off back-to-back upset road wins at New York and Toronto and is primed for a letdown here because of it. Phoenix is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games following a win. The Suns will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, while the Timberwolves will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.
Minnesota has won each of its last three meetings with Phoenix, including a 98-85 road win and a 115-108 home victory in two meetings this season. The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. ISLANDERS +115 over Columbus
OT included. The Jackets have had quite the ride this year. The put together one of the best winning streaks in NHL history and turned from a pretender into a contender almost overnight. Several players are putting up career numbers and collectively, the Jackets are truly a legit squad but after a wild 7-6 victory on Sunday in Ottawa and with Nashville on deck followed by the All-Star break, this is the perfect opportunity to catch the Jackets playing with less intensity. Even if the Jackets show up and play well, the Islanders are still a big threat to win this game.
Very quietly, the Islanders are playing some damn good hockey. Over their past 10 games, the Isles have just two regulation losses and have picked up 13 out of a possible 20 points. More recently, the Islanders have picked up seven out of a possible eight points over their last four games while outscoring the opposition over that stretch, 13-5. The Islanders have also scored four goals or more in four of their last six games. Since placing Jaroslav Halak on waivers, the Islanders have been rock solid. The entire team has confidence with Tomas Greiss in goal and so they should, as Greiss has been tremendous in net. We also see the Islanders slowly but surely rising up the analytical charts too. The Isles have improved greatly in scoring chances allowed and time spent in their own end. Healthy, in good form and back in the playoff picture (Islanders are just five points behind Philly for the second Wild Card), the Islanders figure to keep it rolling here with another inspired effort against a team they lost 6-2 to in the only other meeting between the two squads this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota -105 over PHOENIX
NBA plays are not a common practice for us to engage in, especially with the emergence of Bet365 in-game betting playing into our strategy. Typically these contests are more laborious to diagnose, as the markets are sharper and the games are filled to the brim with in-game variance. However, this is certainly a contest where in-game betting can be utilized to create a potentially large middle, as they are likely to be many lead changes and runs in this one. We will cover these tactics in greater detail in our webinar on January 30th but for this one game, the value on the T-Wolves is too good to pass up on.
According to some markets, the Suns opened as high as a 2½-point home dog but the markets have pushed them to the favorite. The reaction is almost certain to be because of Phoenix’s upset victory over Toronto at the Air Canada Centre on Sunday, where the Suns took it to the Raptors in Toronto with a 12-point win as a 12-point dog. However, Phoenix has been spotted lofty numbers at times against some of the league’s premier teams only to make a game of it or pull the upset outright (see Golden State and San Antonio). However, there are other times Phoenix was given the same allotment of points and they were absolutely blown out. Furthermore, we have seen this team spot points before and once again lose the game convincingly against mediocre competition. Dangerous, yes but also extremely beatable and erratic are the Phoenix Suns.
Minnesota comes into this game on a two-game winning streak. The T-Wolves have recently defeated the Los Angeles Clippers at the Staples Center and have taken down teams like Houston and Oklahoma City among others over their last 10 games. Minnesota has defeated Phoenix three straight times so if basketball is indeed all about match-ups, perhaps this one greatly favors the visitor. Minnesota plays better defense than Phoenix (which in fairness is not saying much) and they commit less turnovers while taking higher percentage shots.
The Suns are coming off a three-game trip to the East Coast where they played at Cleveland (always a big game), at Madison Square (always an exciting one for visitors) and in Toronto (always having to clear customs, not once, but twice). On their best day in a perfect situational spot, the Suns are beatable. This is anything but perfect.
SPORTS WAGERS
AIR FORCE +6 over San Diego St
Earlier this season we faded San Diego State when they were traveling out to Chicago, Illinois to take on Loyola-Illinois in a similar capacity, as the Aztecs were spotting points on the road to an outfit with a strong home court advantage. Although it is just 9-11 overall, Air Force is 9-3 when they are in Colorado Springs. The Falcons have won all their games at home this year while San Diego State has had a lot of trouble outside of The Mission City with a 1-5 road mark. The Aztecs were winless on the road until recently when they finally defeated UNLV and covered as a 5½-point favorite in the process.
There are a few variables that really propel this current market price. First, San Diego State is a household name and has been a stalwart in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament discussion for years. The Aztecs just missed qualification in the 2015-16 season. In the previous three years, the Aztecs have won at least 27 games and have achieved as high as 31 wins in 2014 when they won the Mountain West Conference Championship. This team is consistently in contention and they’re recognizable, which usually means spotting inflated points in a multitude of situations. SDSU has also won its previous six against the Falcons, which propels this market even more. However, Air Force is 5-1 ATS in these six losses against San Diego State, which once again showcases the fact that the Falcons are often being given far more points than they should be.
This edition of the Aztecs is simply not as good as those others. Air Force scores five more points per game than San Diego State, while also being a far superior three-point shooting team and overall more efficient from the field. Additionally, the Falcons are the more physical bunch, as they are stronger in the rebound department too. This is especially startling considering the Aztecs have traditionally been known for being a “dianoga”. While SDSU owns some of the best defensive numbers in the country in limiting points and field goal percentage, it was clearly absent when the Aztecs were out of town to play Grand Canyon. This is a team that only surrenders 62.3 points per game on average yet Grand Canyon hung 76 on them. No market was even offered versus Grand Canyon because the presiding assumption was not whether San Diego State would win, it was more the question of by how much? The Antelopes answered that question authoritatively and perhaps the Falcons can finally end the drought with zest themselves on their own court in what may be their best chance in years to tackle this San Diego State bunch. Upset possibility.
IOWA ST-3½ over Kansas St
Value is not something we just find in underdogs. We trust we found some value here in a short-priced favorite and will not hesitate to pull the trigger. Iowa State’s 12-6 record is decent but it doesn’t reflect how good this team truly is. This is a Cyclones’ squad that has had some of the worst luck in America (311th) while playing one of the toughest schedules in the country (22nd nationally). This is a squad that has gone toe-to-toe with teams such as Kansas and Baylor on the road only to come up on the losing end in bitter fashion. The Cyclones boast one of the most efficient defenses in America according to Ken Pom. ISU’s adjusted defensive rating sits at 24th, meaning that opponents require more possessions to score the same amount of points against this Cyclones’ bunch than against others. When you factor in that Iowa State has faced the 14th toughest schedule in America in terms of opponent offensive production, these numbers further verify and validate how scrappy and battle tested they truly are. Iowa State gets K-State on their own court and they have won the previous two in this Big 12 series so you have to imagine that the ‘Clones are not only fired up but they have that all-important psychological edge too.
The situation sets up perfectly for Iowa State, as they are 7-2 at home while Kansas State is just a .500 basketball team on the road. Contrary to the credentials of Iowa State, K-State has some rather auspicious details in their resumé, which suggests they are not the 15-4 team everyone thinks they are. While K-State has been on the end of some tough losses themselves when it comes to luck, they have navigated one of the easiest non-conference schedules in all the land, as it sits at 346th in terms of strength. The Wildcats defense has faced far less potent offenses when compared to Iowa State and when you factor in that the Cyclones have a great playmaker on the floor in Deandre Burton, K-State may just be unprepared for what kind of beast will be awaiting them. Burton is coming in off a 31-point outing when the ‘Clones defeated Oklahoma in overtime and will likely not have the four-point outing he had last year when ISU still managed to pummel this team by 18 in Ames. Let’s not forget Kansas State just pulled off a big upset in Manhattan against #18 West Virginia. That final has prompted an overreaction while ISU’s win over OU is not considered to be a big deal. While K-State deserves respect, this one lines up perfectly for the host to take out the intruder in convincing fashion and that is precisely how we’ll play it.
Zack Cimini
Buffalo vs. Miami-Ohio
Pick: Buffalo
Out in the MAC, Miami-Ohio will look to avoid a sixth straight loss against Buffalo. They've struggled at closing out games which has been the case in several narrow defeats. Returning home after four of five road games would seem like an advantage spot to end a slide. Instead grab the Bulls to continue to capitalize on Miami-Ohio's issues with under ten minutes to go.
Mike Rose
Kentucky at Tennessee
Play: Kentucky -9.5
It’s still unknown at the time of this writing as to whether Fox will be a go for this one. John Calipari has already been quoted as saying that the injury wasn’t serious. Fox has been in a walking boot since and could give it a go. I however believe he won’t be asked to suit up and instead be relegated to the bench to rest up for the Jayhawks. That takes a major weapon out of Kentucky’s arsenal, but the nation’s No. 5 ranked team is still deep enough to avoid falling in Knoxville for a second straight season.
In games the Vols have thrived in to date, they’ve gone bonkers from long range. They hit 7 of 17 in the win over the Bulldogs as well as 8 of 15 versus Vandy in their two most recent wins. Kentucky has thrived defending the perimeter, so it’s likely Tennessee has to convert closer to the rim to have much of any success in this matchup. Look for Edrice Adebayo and Derek Willis to have a major say in that. There won’t be any easing up here.
Buster Sports
Virginia at Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -1
Notre Dame is undefeated at home with a 12-0 mark and they take on what might be their biggest home test of the season in Virginia. Notre Dame has won 8 of their last 9 games but has lost 9 straight games to Virginia. Never like to walk in front of these types of streaks but with the Irish playing their best basketball of the year and with this game on their home floor, we see them getting the monkey off their back tonight and getting the victory.
Oskeim Sports
Louisville at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +7
Contrarian bettors will certainly be attracted to this game as it involves two teams heading in seemingly opposite directions. Louisville arrives in town having won and covered four of its last 5 games, whereas the Panthers take the floor on a four-game slide.
Pittsburgh has also failed to cover the point spread in three of its last 4 games. Despite those negative technical trends, I'm still making Pittsburgh my free sports pick for Tuesday, January 24.
Pittsburgh possesses a solid attack that is averaging 79.0 points per game (38.3% 3-PT%) against teams that would combine to allow just 70.3 points per game to an average offense. More importantly, the Panthers are 9-2 SU at home this season where they are averaging 84.3 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 42.4% from beyond the arc.
I also like the fact that Pittsburgh is making 71.8% of its free throw attempts, including 72.6% at home. In contrast, the Cardinals are shooting just 68.3% from the charity stripe this season. Let's also note that Louisville remains without guard Quentin Snider, who suffered a hip flexor strain last week and is expected to miss up to three weeks of action.
The absence of Snider is significant in that he was averaging 12.1 points and 4.0 assists per game prior to being injured, including scoring 22 points in the Cardinals' 85-80 win over Pittsburgh on January 11. Louisville is averaging just 69.0 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the floor away from home this season.
Pittsburgh has also proven to be a reliable home underdog, posting a solid 7-3-1 ATS record when getting points at home. Meanwhile, Louisville is a fat and happy road favorite entering tonight's game having won three of its last 4 games, which is relevant in that the Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road affairs when taking the court under these precise circumstances.
Finally, Louisville head coach Rick Pitino is 24-35 ATS following a loss by six points or less, whereas Pittsburgh head coach Gene Stallings is 47-29 ATS following a loss by six points or less.
Harry Bondi
WEST VIRGINIA -3.5 over Kansas
The home team has won and covered 8 of the last 9 in this series and with Kansas potentially looking ahead to a monster matchup with Kentucky on Saturday, and the Mountaineers off two straight losses, we will again back the home team in this series.