Free Picks for Tuesday, January 31st, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
MANHATTAN AT FAIRFIELD
PLAY: MANHATTAN +4
One thing certain, and that is that a play on either side of this game is a play on a bad basketball team. Both Manhattan and Fairfield are suffering through highly disappointing campaigns. But I do think there’s a right side in tonight’s clash, and that’s the Jaspers.
Manhattan is deeply flawed, as they can’t shoot, don’t defend all that well, and the Jaspers are very prone to turnovers. But the same can pretty much be said right down the line for Fairfield as well.
I broke down this game with head to head comparisons in several categories. In doing so, I arrived at the conclusion that Fairfield should probably be trying to get the ball to the rim more frequently than they do. When the Stags get inside looks, they’re really not bad offensively. But for whatever reason, that is just not something Fairfield is apparently willing to do. The Stags have the highest ratio in the MAAC on three point attempts.
I really see this as more of a tossup than the power ranking projections suggest, and it appears the oddsmakers do as well based on where this line has been set. Since I’m expecting a tight game, grabbing more than one possession with Manhattan makes some sense to me.
Jim Feist
Nuggets vs. Lakers
Play: Over 226
Denver heads on the road not caring much for defense, #28 in the NBA in points allowed. Denver is on a 35-15-1 run over the total, 35-17 over against the Western Conference. The young Lakers like to run, but don't play defense either, #26 in the NBA in points allowed. And when these rivals clash the Over is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings.
Scott Spreitzer
Wake Forest vs. Boston College
Play: Boston College +6
The outright wins have not exactly been piling up for BC, but they have been a money-maker for bettors, covering three in a row and eight of their last 10. They're back home where they're 8-5 SU and looking to land in the win column after close road losses at Va Tech by six and at Miami-Florida by a singleton. The Eagles are better than advertised and own the backcourt to give Bryant Crawford and Keyshawn Woods trouble on the road. BC covered in the first meeting this season in a game that was closer than the 79-66 final score indicates. The Eagles led at the half and held a lead with roughly 13 minutes to go in the game before cold streaks did them in (5 of 30 3-point shooting). We note that while BC has made over 47% of their FGA at home, Wake Forest has allowed their hosts to make nearly 47% of their FGA, with the Deacons making just 41% of their road FGA. Danny Manning's troops are horrible from behind the arc in road contests, while BC has nailed 42% of their 3-pointers in Chestnut Hill.
John Martin
Knicks vs. Wizards
Play: Knicks +8
The Washington Wizards have remarkably covered nine straight games against the spread while winning eight of them outright. But now the Wizards are being asked to lay big prices that they're not used to. They are massive 8-point home favorites over the New York Knicks tonight. I think the value is with the road dog Knicks, who have had a knack of playing in close games here of late. The last six games featuring the Knicks have all been decided by 8 points or less. They haven't lost any of their last eight games by more than 8 points. New York is 8-0 ATS in its last eight off a road loss by 3 points or less.
Black Widow
Central Michigan vs. Buffalo
Play: Buffalo -7
Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, a good offensive team that scores between 74 and 78 points per game against a horrible defensive team that allows 78 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 points or less are 29-6 ATS over the last 5 seasons. This situation's record is 5-1 this season alone. Look for Buffalo to roll tonight after back-to-back 1-point road losses, including a 90-91 road loss at Akron last game, which is 18-3 on the season.
Dave Price
Iowa vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers +2
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are starting to play much better here of late. They beat Nebraska 65-64 at home for their first conference win. Then they were competitive at Maryland in a 12-point road loss before nearly beating Wisconsin at home last time out, eventually falling 54-61 in overtime as 16.5-point dogs. I expect them to pick up their second conference victory this season at home against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa has been atrocious on the road this season. The Hawkeyes are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in true road games this year. They lost by 22 at Purdue, by 3 at Nebraska, by 35 at Northwestern and by 12 at Illinois in their 4 Big Ten road games. The Hawkeyes are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Jack Jones
Pelicans vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -7½
The Toronto Raptors are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight at home against the New Orleans Pelicans. They are going through their worst stretch of the season, going 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. Now I believe there is value in backing them after this poor stretch.
A big reason for the Raptors' recent struggles was an injury to leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (27.8 ppg), who missed three games before returning against Orlando last time out. With DeRozan back healthy, the Raptors should return to their dominant ways very soon.
The Raptors dominated the Pelicans in both meetings last season. They won 115-91 on the road and 100-81 at home. Toronto is 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 meetings with New Orleans overall. The Pelicans are just 6-15 on the road this season, and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Toronto.
The Raptors are 22-9-1 ATS in their last 32 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Pelicans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Toronto is 13-2 ATS after a home games where both teams scored 100 points or more this season.
Mike Lundin
Pelicans vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -7½
The Toronto Raptors are coming off a 114-113 OT loss to Orlando on Sunday, their sixth loss in the last seven games. I like them to break out of the slump with a win against the New Orleans Pelicans Tuesday night.
The Raptors are 10-2-1 over the last 13 meetings in the series, and the Pels have been widely inconsistent in recent weeks. They're just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record while the Raptors are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Toronto's All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan was back from a three-game absence due to an ankle injury on Sunday, and and finished with 22 points on 6-of-18 shooting. He should be even better tonight in the second game back from the injury.
Bob Harvey
Thunder vs. Spurs
Play: Over 211
The Spurs (36-11, 27-19 ATS)blew a 15-point second-quarter lead on Sunday in a 105-101 loss against Dallas and is now 16-6 at home this season after matching the league record with a 40-1 mark last season.
The Thunder (28-20, 26-21 ATS) continue to receive MVP performances night in and night out from Russell Westbrook. He’ll try for his 25th triple-double of the season which historically had been good news for OKC. The Thunder are 18-6 when Westbrook triple’s up and 51-10 in his career, but they lost 107-91 to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday despite 20 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists from the former UCLA standout. His 24 triple-doubles are the most in a season since Wilt Chamberlain posted 31 in 1967-68, and his averages of 30.8 points, 10.6 rebounds and 10.2 assists have him on pace to join Hall of Famer Oscar Robertson (1961-62) as the only players to average triple-doubles over an entire season.
The Spurs are 13-3 to the OVER in their past 16 home games. They’re also 4-0 to the OVER in their last four vs. the NBA Northwest and 10-1 to the high side in their last 11 against the Western Conference.
The Thunder are 8-2 in the last 10 series meetings and 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in San Antonio. The favorite is 22-9-1 in the last 32 meetings.
The Spurs are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 home games and 17-7 vs. the number in their last 24 overall.
Tony Karpinski
Knicks vs. Wizards
Play: Over 215
I trust Washington and their defense scheme as they have allowed only 105/game. Washington knows how to make backcourts of teams concerned. John Wall can dazzle people with his ball handling and dimes. And Bradley Beal makes plays, end of story, his stick up jumper makes other G's shake their heads, and pause. Their guards can do everything. And they will again here. New York needs to start playing better D, and really need to start keeping their bigs involved, the Knicks have a decent amount of talent in the paint, but they tend to shy away from that game, as their 20th ranked shooting shows. New York Kristaps Porzingis is the right guy to find - but he seems to get distant at times, when he shouldn't. New York been playing bad recently with their defense giving up even more than usual. KP fouled out of his last game with that 4OT game on Sunday so expect him to put up some points here and this total to go over.
LV Traders
Chelsea at Liverpool
Pick: Chelsea
Chelsea is rolling right now and have a good 8pt lead in the table. Klopp has lost his majic this year, only 1 win in 2017. They've allowed 8 goals in their last 5, while scoring only 5. The Blues have 13 goals in their last 5, while allowing 3. They can't afford to let up at the Top of the Premier, they will be looking for 3 points in this one. This is a good rivalry, and should be a tough fight. Chelsea is the better team and has all the confidence right now. You can get them at a good price on WDW, or grab them on Draw No Bet.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Arizona
Pick: Los Angeles -145
Los Angeles is outstanding on defense, fifth in the NHL in goals allowed. That defense keyed a two-game win streak heading into the break, allowing just one goal. Goalie Peter Budaj is 22-14 and a 2.06 goals-against average while filling in for injured Jonathon Quick. The Kings are one spot out of the final Wild Card and face an Arizona team that doesn't play any defense at #29 in goals allowed, #26 in penalty killing, while the offense is #29 in goals scored, and #25 on the power play. The Coyotes are one of two teams whose playoff hopes are all but dead. Phoenix is on a 16-36 run, including 5-16 against the Pacific Division.
David Banks
Georgia @ Kentucky
Pick: Kentucky -16.5
After a win in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge, Georgia hits the road again this time to take on the nation’s No. 8 ranked team, Kentucky, on Tuesday night. The Wildcats blew a big lead against No. 2 Kansas, never found their rhythm on offense, and lost to the Jayhawks 79-73 on Sunday. It was just the fourth loss of the season for Kentucky, the favorite to win the SEC regular season title and tournament championship for the third consecutive season.
The Bulldogs (13-8, 4-4) defeated Texas on Saturday, 59-57, behind 21 points from their leading scorer, Yante Mateen. The 6-8 junior averages 19.7 points and 7.7 rebounds per game and is Georgia’s best player. Point guard J.J. Frazier, who added 14 points in the win over Texas, is the only other Bulldog to average in double figures (15.5 ppg). Georgia is pretty good defensively, but talent-wise does not compare to Kentucky.
The Wildcats (17-4, 7-1) will try and regroup after Sunday’s loss to Kansas. Leading scorer Malik Monk scored 18 against the Jayhawks, but De’Aaron Fox shot just 5-of-12 from the floor and finished with just 10 points, well below his season average of 15.9. Kentucky is the nation’s third-best scoring team averaging 91.3 points per game. If the Wildcats push the tempo and score in the 80s or better, Georgia is in trouble.
Carmine Bianco
Ottawa at Florida
Play: Over 5
Tuesday's Free Play is Over 5 when the Senators and Panthers hit the ice. It's been feast or famine with both these sides at times over the past month and the Sens have been a profitable road Over the past two months, 8 of 10 have produced 5 or more and given the history between these sides the Over is the Play Tuesday.