Mike Rose
Creighton at Butler
Play: Butler -6.5
These division rivals already hooked up once this season back on January 11 when Creighton simply blew the doors off the Bulldogs in the first half and cruised to the 75-64 win and cover as 5.5 point favorites. Maurice Watson Jr. was the star of the game scoring a game-high 21 points while dishing off seven assists. Creighton held a 20 point lead at the break and simply went through the motions before settling for the 11 point win. The rebounding battle was pretty much a wash with Creighton winning it 31-30. Neither of these squads are excelled rebounding teams, so the winner of the rematch will ultimately be the one that limits turnovers and shoots at a high clip from the field.
Whether Butler overlooked the Hoyas for the Bluejays doesn’t matter anymore. This game has arrived, and if Chris Holtmann’s kids are seriously Big East contenders, this is a game they must rise to the occasion in and win. Creighton is ripe for the taking. It just hasn’t looked the part of the team that got out to the program’s best-ever start with Watson nothing more than a bystander. The offense isn’t nearly as fluid, and that will play right into the hands of a Butler squad it ripped apart in a key letdown spot for the Bulldogs. The loss against the Hoyas on the moneyline odds at BookMaker.eu couldn’t have come at a better time for the Bulldogs. Butler hasn’t dropped back-to-back home games in seemingly forever. They sport the better overall defense in this matchup, and that will be the main reason why they even the regular season rivalry up with the Bluejays.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +109 over DALLAS
OT included. Mike Babcock getting his team ready for the “real season” that starts now versus Lindy Ruff is one reason to back the Maple Leafs. Toronto’s stable goaltending versus the Stars weak goaltending is another reason to back the dog here. Coming out of the break, it’s challenging to try and figure out which teams will be sharp and which will not be but our money is on Babcock’s team. There’s also a good chance that Morgan Reilly will play tonight but even if he does not, we’re still stepping in.
Last year the Stars created a ton of high-danger scoring chances but because they were winning, their massive shots against were overlooked. Then they went pfffft in the playoffs. This year the Stars are getting outplayed by the Vancouver Canucks among others and will need a serious hard run in the last few weeks to even think of a Wildcard spot. Their shots against are much worse too. Dallas has a lousy three wins in 13 games against the league’s top-10 and Toronto qualifies as a top-10 team. Meanwhile, the Leafs are an energized group that can’t wait to get back to work while Dallas is a frustrated team that doesn’t have the goaltending to be able to go on a big run. The Stars may address that soon enough but give us a bunch of sharpshooters plus a tag against weak goaltending and defense and it’s worth a bet every time.
Ottawa +105 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Florida Panthers deserve credit. They come to play every night and rarely will we see anyone on this team take a shift off. Perhaps the presence of Jaromir Jagr inspires everyone to work hard and to never relent. The Panthers are right in this thing, as they sit just three points behind the Maple Leafs for the final Wild Card spot. However, Florida is still without key players and they’re an offensively challenged bunch that is hard-pressed to score twice. That’s not the type of team we want to get behind when they’re favored. The Panthers have scored two goals or less in six of their past eight games and they rank 27th out of 30 teams in goals scored.
Ottawa continues to be the most disrespected team in Canada. The Sens have one regulation loss over their past nine games and they were the only team in the NHL to defeat the Capitals in January. The Sens are primed to make the playoffs but they’re priced like they’re the Red Wings or Sabres here and that is not right. The Sens are 11-8 against top-10 teams and 16-12 against top-16 while the Panthers are 5-12 against top-10 and 8-18 against top-16. We also love that the Sens start this “second season” on the road. This is the first of three games on the road to open after the break and the reports are that the Sens had a very spirited practice last night in Florida so they arrived yesterday. That’s the sign of a team ready to go. We get the superior team in great form plus a tag but that’s not unusual, as Ottawa has been undervalued all year and they’re undervalued here too.
New Jersey +128 over DETROIT
OT included. The Devils cannot be trusted as a favorite but they are a very live dog almost every time they play because of their well-structured system that keeps them in games. We also like that the Devils are coming off games against Los Angeles and Washington before the break and while they lost them both, a big step down in class here is likely to serve them well. When Travis Zajac and Taylor Hall have played together, the Devils have controlled 56% of the shot attempts during 5v5 play and have held an even more significant edge in time spent in the opponents end. They have complimented each other nicely and figure to cause the Wings some headaches here. Pavel Zacha has looked like a different player of late. He is seemingly more confident with the puck on his stick and has looked good skating on a line with Jacob Josefson. The 19-year-old has points in three of his last five games, the most in any stretch this season, and has a plus-10 shot attempt differential over his last 12 games. It has taken some time but Zacha is slowly coming around. Of coiurse the Devils can compete here with a great chance to win.
There simply is not a lot to like about the Red Wings as the chalk. The Red Wings are 29th in team save percentage over the last 20 games and have allowed 17 goals in their last five (3.4 per). For a team that is supposed to be strong up front, the Red Wings have mustered a mere 22, 26, 21, 25 and 20 shots on net in five of their last six games. Playing on three day’s rest or more this year, Detroit is 0-2. In three of their last six games against Montreal, the Rangers and Toronto, Detroit scored one goal combined. Over their past four games, the Red Wings have scored a mere five goals. Lastly, Detroit has three goaltenders and of the three, the rookie (Jared Coreau) gets this start while Cory Schneider is back in goal for New Jersey. That can’t hurt our chances either.
SPORTS WAGERS
RUTGERS +110 over Iowa
The Big 10 is without question one of college basketball’s power conferences that produces match-ups that create market interest on a daily basis. Therefore, you can bet that the markets here are most inclined to be adept and astute to each and every situation presented. When Iowa opened as a pick-em, it was no error committed by the bookmakers so be careful about perceiving it as a gift.
Iowa has made three straight appearances in the Big Dance, which substantiates their reputation as of one college basketball’s up and comers in the Big 10. Frank McCaffery seemingly has this outfit back on track to mirror the efforts of the 2006 club, which won the Big 10 Conference Championship under Steve Alford. In some ways, McCaffery has usurped Alford in that he has gotten Iowa out of the first round on two straight occasions but this season, the Hawkeyes are a team that loses focus fast. One or two disturbing losses over the course of a season is common but the way that the Hawkeyes lose from time to time is not common from a Big-10 team. Iowa has losses of 33 and 35-points to Virginia and Northwestern respectively. They lost at home to Omaha and also have double digit losses to Notre Dame, Purdue and Illinois. The Hawkeyes are 4-5 in conference play and just 12-10 overall but many are about to trust them as a small road favorite. That is likely a mistake because the line says so and because the Hawkeyes are 0-5 on the road.
Iowa is coming off a big win against Ohio State while Rutgers has lost two straight and nine of its last 10. Making the Scarlet Knights even less appealing is their 1-8 conference mark, not to mention they haven’t had a winning season since 2006 when they qualified for the NIT but let’s rewind for a moment. Rutgers covered as a 10-point pup at Iowa three weeks ago, losing by just six. Despite its uphill battles, Rutgers appears to be on the right track as well and can rejoice in their 9-2 home record to complement their 12-10 record overall. While Rutgers may have lost their previous two, the last one came in OT against #15 Wisconsin and the other loss was to the 19-2 Terps. Rutgers quietly has made some major strides. That they competed against Wisky and could have won that game gives them a big boost of confidence heading into this one. The fan base for the Scarlet Knights is completely behind them. We trust that Piscataway will be rocking tonight, as this will undoubtedly be a game of importance to this emerging Rutgers bunch. Watching the Scarlet Knights play recently, one can sense their rising confidence and one can also sense that they’re on the verge of a win. With Iowa yet to prove itself in hostile environments all season long, that win likely occurs here. Rutgers outright gets this call.
N. ILLINOIS +3½ over Akron
The Zips have been a subject of conversation lately, as they currently sit at 18-3 atop the MAC East as the sole team in the conference that has yet to lose a game to a MAC opponent. The Zips have quickly emerged as the favorite to win the MAC, currently penciled in as a #13 seed in many bracketologist’s brackets. Given the astoundingly low RPI for this mid-major club, the Zips seem mouthwatering in this spot when you consider this is the least amount of points they have spotted all year long. It gets even better. The Zips have won 11 in a row while going 6-0 ATS when they were spotting seven points or less during that span. We have seen this team spot as much as 17 points to some opponents. The point is that with all the fanfare and pandemonium surrounding Akron’s stellar and meteoric rise, it doesn’t make any sense for this team to be spotting such a low amount of points to a perceived weaker opponent. However, we advise all to take a careful look at the fine print.
Akron is 3-3 on the road this year and while the Zips may have defeated UC Irvine and Air Force away from Ohio while falling to Gonzaga and Creighton on the road, let us bring you back to the very first game of the 2016-17 regular season. This “juggernaut” of the mid-majors was taken down by the most incredulous of foes, Youngstown State. The Penguins are a lowly 10-13 Horizon League outfit who just came off a hideous 11-21 record the season prior. The Zips were an eight-point favorite in that game and while it was a long time ago and much has happened since, it doesn’t change the fact that the Zips are beatable and the odds makers know it.
Northern Illinois came into this season off a 21-win effort in their 2015-16 campaign and they are striving to continue their progress after making it to the Vegas 16. NIU is coming off a road win at Toledo to improve its conference mark to 5-3. The Huskies have won their last two in DeKalb against the Zips and four of their last five overall so they are not going to be intimidated by this intruder for a second. NIU was taking back similar points in those aforementioned last three wins over Akron in DeKalb too. While NIU may be the dog yet again, they will certainly enter it feeling anything but that and will likely win again in the process. Sell high on the Zips here and if they win and cover, sell high on them again.
Larry Ness
Oklahoma City vs. San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio -8.5
The 28-20 OKC Thunder find themselves 1 1/2 games back of the Utah Jazz in the Northwest and in a battle with the 29-21 Grizzlies for the West's No. 6 seed. Russell Westbrook (30.8-10.8-10.2) is on a mission to become the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple-double over an entire season but all year long, the Thunder's problem has been that the team just doesn't have enough of a supporting cast behind Westbrook. Now that Enes Kanter (14.4-6.7) is expected to miss two months after breaking his right forearm by punching a chair during a timeout in a win over Dallas on Friday, those issues have become even more front-and-center!
The 36-11 San Antonio Spurs lead the Rockets by three games in the Southwest but like the rest of the conference, trail the 41-7 Warriors for the best record in the West. The Spurs come into this game off losses at New Orleans and at home to Mavs (are you kidding?), the team's first back-to-back losses since losing to the Clippers (Nov 5) and Rockets (Nov 9). The loss to the Mavs didn't sit well with All-Star small forward Kawhi Leonard. "It doesn't matter who we lose to," Leonard told reporters. "It's always tough losing. We want to win every game. We've got another one coming up and we have to be prepared. We have to go in with the same mentality -- play defense first and let the offense come."
Leonard averages 25.4 PPG but unlike Westbrook, gets plenty of help. PF Aldridge contributes a solid 17.7 PPG and 7.5 RPG, while seven others add between 6.3 and 11.7 PPG. Gasol leads the group with 11.7 PPG and adds a team-high 7.9 RPG. The Spurs tied a league record by going 40-1 SU at home but while they are just 16-6 SU this season (and a modest 12-10 ATS), catching them off back-to-back losses (most recently to the hated Mavs at home!), it's NOT a good spot to go against them. Lay the points.
Jesse Schule
Charlotte vs. Portland
Play: Portland -158
The Hornets are reeling, coming into Portland off four straight losses. Starting center Cody Zeller has missed all four of those games due to injury, and Charlotte has lost nine of 10 games without Zeller this season. They've struggled on defense in his absence, allowing over 110 points per game during their current losing skid. The Blazers have been a major disappointment this season, but they've won three of their last four, scoring an average of over 113 points in those games. The one loss came by just two points to defending Western Conference champs Golden State. Portland has won five straight home meetings with the Hornets, scoring an average of 115 points in those games.
Brandon Shively
Georgetown vs. DePaul
Pick: DePaul +7
Georgetown will be the ‘square’ side tonight. That’s because they just beat two ranked teams, Butler and Creighton. Against Butler they shot an insane 63.8% somehow which included 20-for-27 on 2 point field goals. Also note the fact that Georgetown allowed a season worst 1.21 points per possession in conference play against Butler. I feel has to be a natural letdown here and I can’t see them being overly motivated either against a DePaul team they beat 3 times last year.
So the Hoyas are playing a big role reversal role from road dog (+8)to road favorite (-7). After beating two ranked teams, the oddsmaker has made Georgetown a bigger favorite than I expected and the early ‘sharp ‘ money agrees.
I am not going to sugar coat things by saying DePaul is a decent team with potential. The truth is they are the worst team in the Big East. However, they showed fight in their last home game by taking Butler to overtime. They also beat Providence who beat Georgetown twice this year. DePaul’s biggest home loss this year is by only 7 points. Georgetown only has 2 wins on the road this year, by 4 and 7 points.
Given the fact Georgetown hasn’t won by more than 7 on the road and DePaul hasn’t lost by more than 7 at home, I feel that puts us where we need to be for this game. Look for Georgetown to have a natural letdown off the two big wins. DePaul does a few things decent like force turnovers with pressure defense and hit a slightly above average percentage of 3 pointers.
Will Rogers
Nashville vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -180
The set-up: The 24-17-8 Nashville Predators climbed back into contention in the Central Division on the strength of a 7-1-1 surge into the All-Star break. They get a real test right away on Tuesday, as they open play in Pittsburgh against the Penguins, who are 30-13-5.
Nashville: The Predators have earned a point in five straight games(current 7-1-1 overall) and goaltender Pekka Rinne told the Predators' website, "I think we've turned a corner here a little bit. I feel like throughout the season we've been finding consistency and, as of late, with the way we've been playing, even with our losses, I feel like we've been pretty happy with our games." Tuesday's game is the first of seven in 13 days for the Predators, before they reach their five-day bye week. If nothing else, the busy schedule between breaks offers them a chance to try to match their play in the nine games before last weekend. We'll see.
Pittsburgh: Unlike the Predators, it's been a streaky January for the Penguins. It's included a three-game losing streak, a four-game winning streak, and last week before the break, a two-game losing streak.Captain Sidney Crosby owns an NHL-best 28 goals but followed up his 11-goal December with just two here in January. The Pens need Crosby at his best while fellow star center Evgeni Malkin is out. Malkin has a lower-body injury and is expected to miss his second straight game Tuesday and it not skating yet. Malkin sits third in the league with 54 points, one behind Crosby.
The pick: Still, I look at Pittsburgh's 20-3-2 home record in which the team is averaging 4.00 GPG (while allowing just 2.60) and the Pens are the play.
Scott Rickenbach
Knicks vs. Wizards
Play: Under 217½
The posted total on this game has been on the rise this morning but the reason the Wizards have won 14 of their last 18 games has had to with some improved defense as well. This has been particularly true at home where Washington has allowed an average of 101 points per game in their last 9 games. They are catching the Knicks at a good time for a strong defensive effort as New York is off of that multiple-overtime marathon game at Atlanta on Sunday! New York may not have a lot of gas left in the tank and the Knicks have another game on deck for tomorrow night at Brooklyn so I expect the New York offense to be a little 'off' tonight. The Knicks points allowed per game certainly was impacted by the 4-OT game with the Hawks but, looking at regulation time only, they've been better on that end of the floor as they've allowed an average of 101.7 points per game in their last 12 games! The under was 4-1 in the Knicks 5 road games prior to Sunday's crazy finish. As for the Wizards, the under is a perfect 2-0 this season in home games where they a favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points.
Steve Janus
Maryland vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -2½
Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MARYLAND) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%). This system is 41-17 (71%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons.
Brandon Lee
Pelicans vs. Raptors
Play: Pelicans +7½
Toronto comes into this game off a 113-114 loss at home to the Magic as a 11-point favorite and are just 1-6 in their last 7 overall. Whenever a great team like the Raptors goes through a funk like this, the public loves to back them banking on them to bounce back. This is the time of year where teams go through funks, just look at the Cavaliers. New Orleans isn't a great team and have struggled on the road, but I expect the Pelicans to come out and give everything they have in this one. They also have a big time game changer inside in Anthony Davis. New Orleans did lose last time out, but are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after a SU loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. Toronto just 3-7 ATS last 10 vs Western Conference.
Ross Benjamin
Hornets vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -3
Portland is coming off a narrow 2-point home loss to Golden State which snapped a modest 3-game win streak. Portland is 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS at home this season following a loss in their previous game. Charlotte is 0-4 SU&ATS in their previous 4 games. The Hornets have also lost 7 straight road games.
Chip Chirimbes
Thunder vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -9
It is a amazing to me that Russell Westbrook has 24 triple-double and yet the Thunder have just 28 wins on the season. Oklahoma City is 18-6 when Westbrook does his thing while the Spurs are off a loss at Dallas Sunday night and tat doesn't sit well with the class of the NBA. When Kevin Durant was around the Thunder were 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and are 4-1 ATS in San Antonio. But, Durant isn't around and Oklahoma City lacks depth something the Spurs have.
Jimmy Boyd
Rutgers +2
I like the value here with the Scarlet Knights as a home dog against the Hawkeyes on Tuesday. Iowa comes in off a solid 85-72 win at home over Ohio State on Saturday, but now must hit the road where they are 1-7 overall and 0-4 in Big Ten play. The last two away from home have resulted in ugly blowout losses to Northwestern (54-89) and Illinois (64-76). On top of that, Iowa could be without their best player in Peter Jok, who is questionable with a back injury.
Even if Jok plays, I still like Rutgers in this one. The Scarlet Knights had Iowa on the ropes in Iowa City earlier this season. Rutgers led by as many as 9 and had a lead with less than 5 minutes to play. This Iowa team averages 80.6 ppg overall, but just 69.4 ppg on the road. At the same time they are giving up a ridiculous 82.4 ppg.
Hawkeyes are just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 overall and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 against the Big Ten. Iowa is also a mere 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite and 1-11 ATS in the last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Scarlet Knights 4-1-1 last 6 home games against a team that's lost more than 40% of their road games.
Teddy Davis
Boise St vs. Colorado St
Play: Colorado St -1
I will back the Rams here tonight as they are starting to play a lot better ball as of late. They have won and covered 3 straight and two of those SU underdog wins. Both of these teams sit @ 6-3 in the conference tied for 2nd place. The key for me is that Colorado St will want revenge from after leading by 7 @ half and losing by 1 the first go around this year. Lay the short number with a Rams team who is 10-3 @ home
Matt Josephs
Toledo vs. Ball State
Play: Ball State -145
Ball State is playing some of their best basketball as they have won two straight and five of their last six. They have defended home court well this season for the most part. The Cardinals offense is rolling right now and Toledo's lack of a defense won't stop them. The Rockets have lost four of their last six with three of those coming on the road. Toledo has allowed 70 points or more in seven straight games. They don't have the balance of the Cardinals who have seven players who average seven points or more per game. Ball State has covered in 13 of their last 19 home games in this series including an 87-69 win there last year. I like the Cardinals to win this one.