TONY GEORGE
Kansas State vs. Kansas
Play: Kansas St +13½
Kansas and K State renew the rivalry this year as usual, and red hot K State getting no love from oddsmakers here. Yes, The Jayhawks are #2 in the land, and are locked and loaded under Bill Self as usual, however K State is rolling and while not equally talented, I expect a showdown here and a good game.
K State is allowing just 58 ppg on defense, a full 10 points better than Kansas and Kansas is just 4-7 ATS in lined games this year and better yet, K State is allowing just 53 ppg on the road this year. While the Wildcats are not near as prolific on offense, I think their defense slows the pace enough to hang within this number, even at Phog Allen tonight.
BRANDON LEE
Grizzlies vs. Lakers
Play: Grizzlies -3½
We are catching a solid number here on Memphis as small road favorite Tuesday. There's a good chance the Grizzlies won't have big man Marc Gasol, which I think has created the value here. This Memphis team has battled through injuries all year and are still sitting at 22-14. They come in having won 2 straight after a rough 2-5 stretch and are poised to go on another nice run here. The Lakers on the other hand have lost 3 in a row and are just 2-15 over their last 17 games. Memphis is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs the Western Conference, while Los Angeles is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against the Western Conference and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games.
JACK JONES
Heat vs. Suns
Play: Suns -3
Few teams have been hit harder by injuries than the Miami Heat this season. As a result, they are just 10-25 on the year and well out of the playoff hunt. They have lost five straight and eight of their last nine coming into this game tonight.
The Heat are expected to be without their best player in Hassan Whiteside, who is doubtful. Not to mention both Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow are doubtful, Josh McRoberts is out, and Goran Dragic is questionable with a back injury. They just can't compete with all of these injuries right now.
I know the Phoenix Suns will be playing the second of a back-to-back here after losing to the Clippers last night, but this is one team that is built to handle it. The Suns have a ton of depth with 11 players averaging at least 12 minutes per game, plus Tyler Ulis who averages 9 minutes.
The Suns are 46-21-3 ATS in their last 70 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Phoenix is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss. The Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
JIMMY BOYD
Pacers vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -4
I like the value here with Detroit laying a relatively small number at home against the Pacers. Indiana comes in having won two straight, but both of those victories were on their home floor, where the Pacers have been tough to beat. Indiana is 13-5 at home on the season. It's been a completely different story on the road, as the Pacers are just 4-13 away from home.
It just so happens that one of those 4 road wins came at Detroit a few weeks back and I believe that only adds more value. The Pistons are going to want revenge against their division rivals and are 22-11 ATS in their last 33 when revenging a loss of 10 points or more. Indiana is 4-12 ATS after 1 or more wins this season, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after playing their previous game at home and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games off a home win.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Buffalo vs. Toledo
Play: Buffalo +2½
Coming into this season, Toledo's plans at the point guard position were critical. That's because Stucker Mosley transferred to James Madison. The Rockets hopes were centered on a trio of guards they brought. However, that really has not panned out as junior college transfer Daniel Dzierzawaski, who was playing the most among the trio, was dismissed from the team and the other juco transfer, Lucas Antunez, is averaging only 9 minutes a game. The other member of the trio is Justin Roberts and he is averaging only 7 minutes per game! The Bulls come into Toledo looking to attack the weakness at the point position and Buffalo is a solid team hoping for a 3rd straight trip to the Big Dance. The Bulls record may not look impressive but in their 9 lined games this season they were the dog in 6 of them. This is in direct contrast to the Rockets as Toledo was the favorite in more than half of their lined games so far this season. Now that conference play is getting underway I look for Buffalo to step it up. Keep in mind, CJ Massinburg did not play the first 8 games of the season but he averaged 11.3 ppg last season and has averaged 14.6 ppg in his first 5 games since returning to the floor. He combines with seniors Willie Connor and Blake Hamilton to arguably give the Bulls the best trio of perimeter players in the MAC. With 6'8 forward Nick Perkins really stepping up his game this season, the Bulls have enough inside to combat the Rockets strength (in the paint) and Buffalo's perimeter play rates them a huge edge over Toledo. The road team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. Also, the Bulls are 5-1 the last 3 seasons in games against teams who allow an average of 77 points or more per game. The Rockets are on a 4-12 ATS run against teams who score an average of 77 points or more per game. Toledo won't be able to keep up here.
MATT JOSEPHS
Ball State vs. Kent State
Play: Ball State +6½
The Cardinals bring a five game win streak into their matchup with Kent State. Ball State has wins at North Florida and St. Louis already with a close six point loss at Valpo as well. They are a balanced bunch with all five starters averaging eight points per game or better. They have Franko House and Trey Moses inside to help handle Jimmy Hall who is KSU's first option. Kent State has lost two of their last three, but are coming off a win at Texas 63-58. KSU is in an offensive funk right now as they have failed to crack 65 points in each of their last three contests. Kent State has covered just 13 of their last 29 home games. I like Ball State's balance to keep things close.
RICKY TRAN
Oilers vs. Blue Jackets
Play: Oilers +145
Due for a Loss: Columbus made it 15 consecutive wins with a 4-2 victory at Minnesota on Saturday night. All streaks comes to an end eventually, and this is a great price on Edmonton to end Columbus' amazing winning streak.
Scoring Defense: The Oilers have limited their opponents to two regulation goals or fewer in eight of their last nine games. They should have a great chance of winning this game if they can limit the Blue Jackets to just a pair of goals as they average 3.15 goals per game on the road.
Edmonton on the Road: The Oilers are 10-5-3 on the road this season.
DAVE PRICE
Buffalo vs. Toledo
Play: Toledo -2
It's hard not to like Toledo here as only 2-point home favorites over the Buffalo Bulls. The Rockets are 5-1 at home this season and winning by 13.0 points per game on average. Their only loss came by a single point 77-78 to Wisconsin-Green Bay. Buffalo is just 1-4 in true road games this season with its only win coming at Alaska Anchridge by a final of 85-79. This is a team with a recent home loss to Canisius 87-94 as 7.5-point favorites, and a loss to Robert Morris 71-74 on a neutral court. The Bulls are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. The Rockets are 47-23-1 ATS in their last 71 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg +130 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. Tampa Bay is coming off a 3-1 home win over Carolina but this is still a team that is struggling to find any consistency. Over their past 20 games, the Bolts have won consecutive games just one time so a loss usually follows a victory. Tampa’s defense remains an untidy mess that continually has trouble clearing the puck. The Lightning rank 25th in face-offs in their own end, which is further proof of their difficulties in getting the puck out. The Bolts have fewer wins (2) against top-10 competition than any team in the NHL. Tampa is 2-8 against top-10 teams and 5-12 against top-16 teams. That truly reveals the risk of laying weight with this vulnerable bunch.
Winnipeg’s stock is way down after they were buried at home on New Year’s Eve by the Islanders, 6-2. Teams’ often respond well after a bad loss. More importantly, Winnipeg is too good to refuse taking back a tag like this. When the Jets show up and play to their potential, they are an extremely dangerous group. We’re not sure what’s holding this team back from thriving and being one of the best but we are sure that no team wants to face them in the first round of the playoffs. The Jets have one of the best lines in the NHL. Mark Scheifele would be a superstar if he played in New York, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Toronto, Montreal, Chicago, Pittsburgh or several other places. He’s a Hart Trophy candidate. Patrik Laine might even be a better consolation prize than Jack Eichel was a year earlier. The Jets have everyone back in the lineup besides Tyler Myers, which makes them very strong up the middle and deep on the wings. Winnipeg may not win here but you would be hard pressed to find a dog in this range with this much talent and profit potential. That prompts us to step in.
Montreal +109 over NASHVILLE
OT included. Nashville has three wins over its past eight games with two of those victories occurring against the Devils and Flyers. The other victory came in its last game against the Blues but St. Louis had the Winter Classic on deck and could have very well been looking ahead to that game. That said, Nashville has a great collection of skilled players and they should have a better record than its current 16-20 mark. However, the same thing that ailed them last year is ailing them again. In this league, goaltending is the #1 deciding factor in the outcome of games and that’s why Carey Price taking back a tag against Pekka Rinne must be played. Preds backup goaltender, Jusse Saros played in Nashville’s last game and the Preds won 4-0. It’s no coincidence. Rinne has posted save percentages of .870, .846, .824, .885, .882, .778 and .893 in seven of his last 10 starts. Dude is a HUGE risk in goal and it’s only a matter of time before he’s benched in favor of his superior backup. Until then, we’ll fade Rinne every chance we can.
Meanwhile, Montreal has one win over its last five games but two losses were in OT and the other two losses were to the two hottest teams in the NHL, Columbus and Minnesota. Montreal would lose by a goal to Columbus and by two goals to Minnesota but the Wild added an empty netter with 23 seconds left, essentially making that a one-goal loss too. We always discuss one-goal games being a product of luck and not skill. Thus, we could easily be discussing a Montreal team on a five-game winning streak. The return of Shea Weber to his former stomping ground is a motivating factor for the Habs, as they absolutely have a ton of respect and appreciation for Weber and they know how important the game is to him. Still, this one is all about betting the vastly superior goaltender. It doesn't guarantee a win but it dramatically increases our chances.
Edmonton +144 over COLUMBUS
OT included. 15 wins in a row and counting. While we do not support the "due to lose" or "due to win" angles that some employ, we understand how difficult it is to win one game in such a luck driven sport, let alone 15 games so the Jackets’ enormous puck luck lately cannot stand up much longer. Hockey is the only sport of the major four where teams that get dominated win almost every night. One can look over the box scores daily and find two games or more on a full card in which a team is outshot 2-1, out-chanced 2-1 and yet comes out on top because their deflections went in and superior teams' deflections did not. It’s that simple and in that regard, Columbus is walking a fine line lately. Over their past four games, the Jackets were outshot by Montreal, 37-24, Boston. 40-22, and Minnesota, 31-25 and won them all by scores of 2-1, 4-3 and 4-2 respectively. Six games ago, they were outshot 47-26 by the Kings and won that game too. Eventually, getting out-chanced and outshot will catch up to them and this could surely be that day.
The Jackets return home from a brief, two-game trip through Winnipeg and Minnesota. The game against Minnesota was a marquee matchup on New Year’s Eve that created quite a buzz. The Jackets also have the Capitals up next. Columbus is truly a legit team but even the best teams in history (which they are not) rarely won 15 straight because of the aforementioned luck factor. Chances are good that the Jackets intensity level for this one will not be as high as it was for the last one but more importantly is that their stock is through the roof and therefore the time is right to start selling. Lastly, the Oilers very quietly have just two regulation losses in their last 14 games and they have a sniper or two that you may have heard about. The Oil now become the perfect team to target to snap the Jackets unsustainable streak.
SPORTS WAGERS
MIAMI Ohio +3½ over Northern Illinois
In the previous six meetings between these two Mid-American foes, the underdog has not only covered but won outright. Most recently, Miami of Ohio wore the shoes of the pooch in this conference clash where as a 5½-point pup they would defeat the Huskies by 13 on January 30th, 2016. Miami comes into this contest with all seven of their wins coming at home this season while Northern Illinois has played under .500 on the road against some weak competition.
The Huskies strongest opponent this year has been Minnesota and they lost that game by 20 points. After Northern Illinois lost at Minnesota and Indiana State, the Huskies’ season could have gone off the rails but fortunately for them, four cupcakes followed and so did four wins. Two of NIU’s last four wins occurred against USF and FIU. That pair has a combined 10 wins in 28 games. The other two victories came against non-Division I schools in Olivet Nazarene and the Prairiestars of Illinois-Springfield. NIU has zero impressive wins because their schedule has been so bad and while the Redhawks schedule has also been weak, the Huskies cannot be road chalk to open conference play but 21 wins last year along with an 8-5 record this year has them grossly overvalued. That 21-13 record from last year is as misleading as their record this year. The Huskies went just 9-9 in conference play last season and have not been above .500 in league play since 2006. There is a price to pay for scheduling games against marshmallows and once again, the Huskies will likely pay those dues in conference play beginning with this one.
Miami of Ohio has won three of their last four with their sole defeat over that span occurring against an 11-3 UCF team that stands at 7-1 at home this season. While the Redhawks may have lost that contest, they came in as a 14-point pooch and took the Knights to overtime before a winner could be declared. Miami owns the most recent win in this series and one has to believe that the host is confident heading into this one given their strong record at home. The Redhawks are a far superior three-point shooting team, more efficient from the field overall and feature the deeper bench. The focal point of the RedHawks is Michael Weathers, a 6-2 freshman who leads in points per game at 19.2, assists at 5.0, rebounds at 5.5, steals at 1.8 and blocks at 1.7 per game. Weathers is the difference here and while Northern Illinois has won four straight, two were against non-Division I opponents and one was against a dreadful and dysfunctional South Florida team. Miami’s home court is worth at least the obligatory 3-point boost but in this case it has been ignored by a market that wants nothing to do with the Redhawks. That’s when we like to step in and try to take advantage.
Note: We're fairly confident that a better number (+4 or 4½) is forthcoming so we'll wait until later to pull the trigger here and will update this play once we do.
Buffalo +130 over TOLEDO
The Bulls will begin defense of their Mid-American Conference title when they travel to Toledo to open league play here. Buffalo comes in with a 6-7 record but has played the 57th toughest schedule in the country. The Bulls have already played #11 Xavier, #10 Creighton, Pittsburgh and St. Bonnies. Buffalo lost all four of those games but lost by just five at Pitt and by just six at St. Bonnies. On the 29th of November, the Bulls also hung up 72 points on Creighton. The Bulls can now reap the rewards of a tough out of conference schedule. Through the end of non-conference play, the Bulls are averaging 40.5 rebounds per game. That’s significant, as UB is currently in the top 30 nationally in rebounds per game and defensive rebounds per game.
Toledo completed non-league play with a 7-6 record and the Rockets are currently riding a three-game winning streak following a 98-58 win over Ohio Christian on Friday night. Toledo is in the midst of a five-game home stand. It is currently 5-1 at Savage Arena this season but the Bulls have won three of their last four games at this arena so UB is quite comfortable in this setting. Incredibly, five of Toledo’s 13 games this year have gone into OT. The Rockets are 2-3 in those games but the competition was comprised of Youngstown State, Evansville, Mid Tennessee State, Green Bay and Marshall. Toledo’s toughest opponent this year was St. Joseph’s in the season opener, a game they lost, 77-76. The Rockets struggled to beat Detroit Mercy by eight. They had a very tough time with a four-point win at Wright State. Toledo has had a bunch of close games against feeble opponents and things surely do not get easier here. We’re calling the upset and will therefore play the Bulls to win outright.
Larry Ness
Toronto vs. San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio
The Raptors are 12-5 SU & ATS on the road this season with only the Spurs (16-3) and Warriors (15-3) owning better away records. Toronto will cap its six-game road trip (began back on Dec 23rd) here in San Antonio, looking to head back home with a 4-2 mark. Nothing has coming easy for the Toronto Raptors, as they edged Utah and Portland before losing at Golden State and Phoenix. However, in danger of losing three straight for the first time this season in LA against the Lakers on Sunday, Kyle Lowry stepped up and delivered 20 of his season-high 41 points in the fourth quarter and finished 12-of-16 from the floor, including 6-of-7 from beyond the arc, to go along with nine rebounds and seven assists in Toronto’s 123-114 victory.
Lowry averaged 24.4 points on 54.0 percent shooting, including 50.4 from beyond the arc, in December and is improving steadily after a slow start. He’s at 22.7-4.0-4.9 for the season, teaming with DeMar DeRozan (27.5-4.1-5.1), who had 31 points on Sunday. The Raptors are easily one of the league's best offensive teams, ranking third in scoring at 111.2 PPG while connecting on 47.2 percent (4th), including 39.3 percent on threes (2nd). Toronto leads the Atlantic Division at 23-10 but trails the Cavs by three games for the East’s best record and the Raptors are also behind the West’s three-best teams record-wise (GS is 30-5, SA 27-7 and Hou 27-9).
The Spurs stumbled out of the gate at home this season and but check in 1-4 SU (just 8-7 ATS) at home on the season. The Spurs suffered a rare road loss in a 114-112 overtime setback at Atlanta on Sunday but got Kawhi Leonard (illness) back from a two-game absence and let him work his way back into game shape. The star small forward admitted to being "weary" from all the medication he took while fighting the illness and was limited to 13 points on 3-of-12 shooting in 28 minutes. Leonard (24.0-6.0) is the team's best player and PF Aldridge (17.4-7.3) is now San Antonio’s “second guy.” Pau Gasol (14.-8.0) leads a group of seven players averaging between 6.0 and 12.4 PPG, as the Spurs still own as much depth as any team in the league. The Spurs rank third in points allowed, giving up 98.3 PPG on the season.
This marks the Raptors’ FIFTH game in seven days and with the Spurs off a loss (Sunday), it should be noted that San Antonio has followed up each of its last four losses with a winning streak of at least four games. The Raptors haven’t won in San Antonio's since 2007 and against the NBA’s elite, have gone 0-4 SU (0-3-1 ATS) against the Warriors and Cavs, lost to the Clippers when LA was still healthy and were able to beat only Houston, before the Rockets had jelled. Lay the points with the Spurs.
Power Sports
Utah vs Boston
Pick: Utah
A friendly schedule has helped turn things around for the Jazz. Their last four opponents were: the Lakers, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Brooklyn. It certainly gets no easier than that. Not surprisingly, Utah won all four games, though they were just 2-2 ATS (favored every time). I'm fairly shocked to find the team is 2-7 ATS and 1-8 SU as a dog so far, but this is a lot of points. With or without Hill, the team's defense will keep them in this game. The Jazz rank second in the league in defensive efficiency.
Expect the fact that Utah has lost eight straight here in Boston to be a key storyline heading into this game. But for handicapping purposes, it's not really relevant. This is the best team that Quinn Snider has brought to Beantwon - ever. Also, the Celtics are just 5-9 ATS in home games this year. They give up far too many points for my liking (114.4 L5 games). That number is not inspiring when favored. This should be a close game.
Alex Smith
Montreal at Nashville
Play: : Over 5
While they are still atop the Atlantic Division with 50 points, the Canadiens have been struggling recently, losing four of their last five contests. Since their 10-1 blowout victory over Colorado back on December 12, the Habs are just 3-6 SU and have scored three or fewer goals in eight of those nine contests. Goaltender Carey Price hasn't looked as sharp as usual, allowing four goals in three of his last five starts along with a .897 save pct. in his last 10 starts.
Nashville also has some goaltending issues to figure out as its usually steady netminder Pekka Rinne has been lackluster losing six of his last eight starts and yielding three or more goals in seven of those games. His fellow countryman backup, rookie Jussi Saros has won two of his last three and in the process picked up his first career shutout by, blanking division rival St. Louis on 25 shots in a 4-0 victory.
Both clubs have plenty of offensive talent. The Habs are led by Max Pacioretty who has seven goals and four assists over his last 10 contests. For the Preds, forwards Mike Fisher and Filip Forsberg have combined for 11 tallies in their last 10 games with center Ryan Johansen picking up eight assists in the same span.
The two names that were supposed to be the headliners of this match-up are Montreal's Shea Weber and Nashville's P.K. Subban. This is the first match-up against one another since they were swapped in a blockbuster trade this past offseason. Unfortunately, Subban was placed on injured reserve with an upper body injury and will not play. Both players have been posting solid numbers for their clubs, with Subban scoring seven goals and 10 assists in 29 games and Weber scoring nine goals and 12 assists, along with a club-leading plus/minus rating of +16 in 37 contests.
The focus here is the shaky goaltending by both squads. As mentioned, there is a slew of offensive talent on both clubs which has the potentia
Vegas Butcher
San Antonio Spurs -6.5
Raptors are ending their 6-game roadie tonight, which is never an easy spot to be in. It's even more difficult because they're playing a deep Spurs team. I'm not sure if DeRozan and Lowry have another 40-minutes each to keep this one competitive. No-one else is really picking up the scoring and Toronto will need to produce some offense to keep up with this efficient Spurs team. Matchup-wise and scheduling-wise, Spurs have a lot of advantages in this one.