Free Picks for Tuesday, March 14th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Red Dog Sports
Sevilla FC vs. Leicester
Play: Leicester +225
Nice value play on the home underdog in the Champions League on Tuesday. Sevilla won the first meeting 2-1. Leicester changed managers a few weeks ago and has won their last two home matches by 3-1. Jamie Vardy has been playing well for the home team.
DAVE COKIN
NC GREENSBORO AT SYRACUSE
PLAY: NC GREENSBORO +12.5
I’m of the very strong belief that motivation is the key to winning the opening round matchups in the minor college basketball tournaments. That being the case, I’m opting to side with what will clearly be the second best team on the court tonight at the Carrier Dome.
On paper, Syracuse can name the score here as they’re far more talented than Greensboro. But the Orange thought they were going to be participating in the main event, and instead are hosting a nobody from the Southern Conference. It’s therefore not a spot where ‘Cuse figures to be highly motivated. It’s also spring break at Syracuse so the Carrier Dome won’t be nearly as noisy and intimidating as would be the case under normal conditions.
Plus, there’s the Greensboro comments last week by Jim Boeheim. He took a shot at the city by offering that the ACC should not be playing its tournament there and should be in a more major major market locale. Highlighted quote: “There’s no value in playing in Greensboro. I’m saying this because I don’t give a shit. That’s what’s right.” Gotta love Boeheim.
Meanwhile, even though UNC-Greensboro has nothing to do with the ACC, the coach and the team are taking the comments personally and they are definitely heading to Syracuse with a chip on their collective shoulders. If ‘Cuse gets interested in this game, I might be in trouble, but I simply have to take double with Greensboro here.
Scott Spreitzer
Indiana vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech +3
The Hoosiers played a little better in winning three of their final five games, but both losses were by double digits. Indiana has won just one of their last seven road games outright, allowing nearly 80 ppg on the road this season. They average just 16 FTA per road game, 10 fewer attempts per game than their hosts, and IU is saddled with a 0.86 assists/turnovers ratio on the road. Ga Tech won 15 of 19 home games this season, including wins over Notre Dame & North Carolina, and a 22 point win over Florida State. The question is whether or not the Jackets want to play in the NIT and from all indications, they do. Ga Tech enters on a 12-4 ATS run, while the Hoosiers are on a 4-10-1 ATS slide as neutral court chalk.
Mike Lundin
Blazers vs. Pelicans
Play: Pelicans -2½
The Portland Trail Blazers have won five of their last six games as they're coming off a 110-101 win at Philadelphia on Sunday, but I think they're due for a let down game here at New Orleans Tuesday night. Note that the Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games playing on one days rest.
The Pelicans are 4-1-1 ATS so far in March and they're coming off a 125-122 OT win at Charlotte on Saturday as a 3.5-point underdog. No doubt great for the confidence, and I think we'll see a big performance from the otherwise struggling DeMarcus Cousins tonight as he averaged 38.7 points in three games against Portland with the Kings this season.
The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings and Portland is just 11-18 ATS as an underdog on the season. Let's go with the Pelicans as a rare 8*-rated free pick Tuesday night.
Stephen Nover
Indiana vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech +3
Back in November, Indiana was thought of as a possible Final Four contender after pulling off upsets of Kansas and North Carolina while Georgia Tech was considered a lower-rung ACC team. Rewind four months later to now. Georgia Tech has far exceeded expectations nearly making the NCAA Tournament. Indiana still has Final Four hopes - but for the NIT not NCAA. Of course that's disappointing for the Hoosiers. And it's likely they don't take this first-round NIT game as serious as Georgia Tech. Indiana declined to host this game even though it had the opportunity being the higher seed. The company line for turning down playing this matchup at home was renovations to Assembly Hall. The real reason, though, could be apathy and lack of good crowd support with the students off for spring break. The Hoosiers couldn't overcome injuries down the stretch. They lost six of their last eight regular-season games and were eliminated by Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. So not only is Indiana in bad form, but I can't see the Hoosiers caring much about this game. Another distraction are rumors coach Tom Crean is going to leave Indiana possibly for Missouri. Georgia Tech will be motivated. Yellow Jackets' first-year head coach, Josh Pastner, believes it's a tremendous opportunity not only to play in the postseason, but to defeat a name school with a great basketball tradition. It's a home game for the Yellow Jackets and it's going to be on national television. Pastner is so psyched for this game he's offered to pay for the tickets of any student wanting to attend. As added motivation, the Yellow Jackets want to win so they could meet in-state rival Georgia in the second round if the Bulldogs should beat Belmont on Wednesday as expected. Georgia Tech may have played its most embarrassing home game of the season when it lost to Georgia, 60-43, on Dec. 20. The Yellow Jackets want revenge. The motivation angle works for the Yellow Jackets here, but are they actually good enough to beat Indiana? I certainly believe so with the key being they are playing at McCamish Pavilion. Georgia Tech went 14-4 there against Division I opponents posting home victories against Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida State and Syracuse. Georgia Tech achieved its success with the nation's seventh most-efficient defense. The Yellow Jackets ranked 15th in defensive field goal percentage. They are led by 6-foot-10 junior center Ben Lammers, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. He averages 14.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game. Indiana is far more offensively inclined. The Hoosiers need to shoot well to win. They had problems with Wisconsin, the last strong defensive club they faced scoring just 60 points against the Badgers. Keep in mind, too, this was very much a down year in the Big Ten. The Yellow Jackets have been underrated all season. They've covered 12 of their last 16 games. They are a worthy underdog here.
Marc Lawrence
Pistons vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -8
Edges - Cavaliers: 4-1 ATS off a loss when facing a foe off consecutive wins this season. Pistons: 0-4 ATS in this series following consecutive wins. With the Cavs off a loss and Detroit off a pair of wins we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Art Aronson
Minnesota at Washington
Play: Washington -145
It’s all hands on deck for Washington today as it’s lost four straight. And with games against Nashville, Tampa Bay, Calgary and Columbus upcoming respectively, it certainly isn’t going to get any easier for the Capitals any time soon. Minnesota is playing the fourth game of a five game trip and could be caught “looking ahead” to a much more winnable game at Carolina on Wednesday. Are the Capitals really as bad as their current four-game losing streak would indicate? Of course not. We’re expecting the home side to risk life and limb today in trying to secure a victory and all things considered, we feel this line could easily be higher. If you don’t mind laying some chalk, consider the desperate CAPITALS on Tuesday night.
Mike Anthony
Indiana vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Indiana -3
It's crazy that Indiana ended up on the road in the NIT after defeating Kansas and North Carolina this season. The Hoosiers visit a surprising Georgia Tech team that finished 17-15 overall. The Yellow Jackets faded at the end, though, dropping four of their last five. GT is solid at home but Indiana is the better team and they'll pull away in the 2nd half.
Rob Vincilett
Mississippi vs. Monmouth
Play: Monmouth -3
The Hawks are 13-1 at home this season and fit a nice opening round system that plays on teams that lost in the semi finals of the conference tournament if they are at home and the opponent lost by 8 or less last out.. This system has cashed 78% long term. Monmouth has covered the last 6 vs winning teams, 12 of 14 if the total is 160 to 170, 6 of 6 on Tuesdays, 3 of 4 vs the SEC and 17 of 22 vs teams that score 77 or more points per game. They have a better RPI Scale rank and Ole Miss is just 2-6 vs top 50 teams.
Jim Feist
Boise St at Utah
Pick: Under
Boise is 12-5 under the total in non-conference games, plus 19-7 under against a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Runnin' Utes earned a No. 3 seed in the NIT, and will open at the Huntsman Center where they play terrific defense. Utah is 4-1 under the total at home, 3-1-1 under at home against a team with a winning road record.
Scott Rickenbach
Pacers vs. Knicks
Play: Under 211
The key to an under, in addition to the pace/flow of the game, is defensive intensity and we should see plenty of that from the Pacers in this one. Indiana suffered a home loss versus the Knicks in their most recent meeting so that ensures proper focus from the Pacers in this one and the under is 10-1 in their last 11 games overall and 7-0 in their last 7 road games! The Knicks are coming off of an over at Brooklyn but that's because the Nets are horrible defensively and will "run and gun" with anyone. Prior to that game, New York's games were on an 8-1 run to the under. The under is a perfect 4-0 in the Knicks last 4 home games. Look for more of the same here as, believe it or not, the under is a perfect 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 games against teams that allow an average of 106 points or more per game. That said, even though New York is not known for their defense, Indiana will happily turn this into a grind it out half court style game. The under is 5-1 in Knicks games this season when they enter a match-up having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. Also, in March games, the Knicks are 27-10 to the under L3 seasons.
Buster Sports
NC Central at UC Davis
Play: NC Central -3.5
One of Wednesday's play-in games features UC Davis of the Big West and North Carolina Central of the MEAC. The MEAC Conference is one of the more interesting conferences in the country. In the history of the BIG DANCE this conference has pulled off two of the Number 15/2 upsets . The Eagles will not be an upset winner in their first game this year as they are a 3 1/2 point favorite at the time of this writing over the Aggies. Really like the Eagles here as they are 22nd in total defense and 41st in rebounding in the nation. We have said many times before it is all relative to your conference but we still know that this team can rebound and play some D. As for UC Davis they rank 240th in points per game and anyone who has watched them throughout the year knows that they can really struggle on offense. North Carolina Central has beat Missouri this year and played Ohio St. and LSU tough. UC Davis has won 6 out of 7 and come into this tourney playing some great D themselves. In the end we will take the team that can play some good offense and some good defense as we see this Eagles squad winning this game by 10 or more.
Bryan Leonard
Mount St Marys at New Orleans
Play: Mount St Marys +1.5
Somewhat surprised by this line as we had the dog actually as a slight favorite. The Mountaineers have posted an 18-4 SU run down the stretch with no loss coming by more than four points.
New Orleans reached 20 wins but a closer look at its effective field goal edge of 0.2% per game show the Privateers as more of a .500 ballclub. New Orleans has been more fortunate than good and its season ends on Tuesday.
Carmine Bianco
Blackburn at Fulham
Play: Fulham -1
Tuesday's Free Play is a selection on home side Fulham as they look to continue their recent good form and come off a win away to league leaders Newcastle United. They'll take on a Blackburn side that has only won 2 road contests this season while dropping 10 of 17 overall away from home. Lay the goal today here.