Jeffrey James
Valparaiso +8.5
What the heck has Illinois done to earn being this big a favorite here??? The Illini went 8-11 SU in conference play and they hate Tuesday going 5-14-2 ATS on Tuesday night games. Statistically their offense and defense are pretty much equal which will make winning by almost double digits very difficult. Valpo has covered 7 of their last 10 road games and they will be in a fighting mad mood after losing in the first round of their conference tournament as 9 point favorites. Take the Crusaders and the points here as the play of the day.
Wunderdog
Oakland @ Clemson
Pick: Oakland +11
Up-tempo Oakland won 24 games and has won 10-of-12 straight-up on the road. The Golden Grizzlies averaged 87.1 points in their last seven games and boast three players scoring at least 13 per game, led by junior guard Martez Walker (17.4 ppg), junior forward Jalen Hayes (16.2 points, 8 rebounds per contest), and senior guard Sherron Dorsey-Walker (13.3 ppg). Oakland has reached the postseason eight of the last nine years, including two NCAA Tournament trips. Oakland is 9-1 ATS as a road dog and 33-16-2 ATS away from home. They are also 24-8-1 ATS away against a team with a winning home record. Clemson is two games over .500, never quite reaching their expected potential. The Tigers are 3-8-2 ATS when following a straight-up loss, so back the big dog in a close one and play Oakland
Ken Thomson
Illinois -8.5
I know Valparaiso will play with heart but this becomes a tough match-up without Alec Peters in the line-up. Had Peters not gotten hurt a few games back, the Crusaders are more than likely in the Big dance as winners of the Horizon League.
You are talking about ( 23 ppg / 10 RB ) per game from the big fellow.
For Illinois, this game could spark a new era if Interim HC Jamall Walker can get the guys on the same page during the NIT. Big men Maverick Morgan & Mike Thorne Jr. should have their way inside the paint with the absence of Peters.
Look for Malcolm Hill & Tracy Abrams to get the offense going and the Illini to roll at the State Farm center in Champaign, Illinois this evening. I expect Illinois to roll by double digits once they get it rolling!
Alex Smart
Lightning vs. Senators
Play: Under 5
Tampa Bay enters this game against their hosts Ottawa playing some top tier defensive hockey of late allowing 1,1,1,2,2 goals respectvely in their L/5 games (1.4 gpg), and will not prepared for a uptempo game as they conserve energy on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights. Meanwhile, Ottawa is off a perfect 3 game road trip, and have won 6 straight games overall allowing no more than 2 goals in any game, behind some top tier defensive and goaltending work. Ottawa's last loss came against these same Bolts back on Feb 27th by a 5-1 count, and Im betting they will now be prepared to play a better brand of defensive hockey this time around and most probably a more conservative game as they play their 4th game in 7 nights.
OTTAWA is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in home games revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 3 goals or more this season.TAMPA BAY is 6-0 UNDER after scoring 3 goals or more in 3 straight games this season.OTTAWA is 11-3 UNDER in home games when playing their 4th game in 7 days this season.TAMPA BAY is 21-12 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 5 days this season.
John Martin
Blazers vs. Pelicans
Play: Pelicans -4
The Pelicans will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days here tonight, so they'll be fresh and ready to go. They are starting to play better with DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis together, going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Now they'll be up against a Portland Trail Blazers team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. And the Blazers are just 12-22 SU & 13-21 ATS on the road this season. The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Brandon Lee
Kansas State vs. Wake Forest
Play: Kansas State -2
The public has been pounding Wake Forest since this line came out and it stayed right around a pick'em before jumping in favor of the Wildcats. That's a clear sign that the big money is on Kansas State and I completely agree. I just think defense is a major factor this time of year and Wake Forest doesn't play hardly any. The Demon Deacons allow a ridiculous 77.9 ppg (81.8 ppg on the road). K-State in comparison gives up just 66.9 ppg. I'll go with the team that can get stops and it's not like the Wildcats aren't capable of scoring with Wake.
Andrew Gold
Pacers vs. Knicks
Play: Pacers -3
I believe we are going to see a late surge here from the Pacers trying to improve their spot in the playoffs. The Knicks are in full tank mode they are just 4-12 SU their last 16 games and 1-5 their last 6 with that win coming over Orlando who is terrible. Knicks are also returning home here after playing their last 6 of 7 games on the road.
Dave Price
Pacers vs. Knicks
Play: Pacers -3½
The Key: The Indiana Pacers are fighting for a playoff spot. They'll be hungry tonight, while the New York Knights appear to just be playing out the string with little motivation. The Knicks are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games overall, losing by 11 to Milwaukee, 20 to Detroit and 8 to Brooklyn. They are just 4-12 SU & 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games dating back further.
Jack Jones
Kansas State vs. Wake Forest
Play: Kansas State -2
It was nice to see the Kansas State Wildcats make a run at seasons' end to get into the NCAA Tournament. That's because they had awful luck in close games all season. Seven of their 13 losses came by 6 points or less.
But they went 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their final four games overall to finish. They beat TCU 75-74 as 2-point road dogs, thumped Texas Tech 61-48 as 3-point favorites, upset Baylor 70-64 as 4.5-point dogs, and should have beaten WVU in a 50-51 loss as 5.5-point dogs.
And I like the fact that Kansas State played its best basketball on the road this season. Those neutral court games against Baylor and WVU in the Big 12 tournament were very impressive. They went 9-8 SU & 11-6 ATS in all road games this year. That probably ultimately got them in the NCAA Tournament.
Wake Forest is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 NCAA Tournament games. Kansas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in road games versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.
Teddy Davis
Indiana vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech +3
There is no question that the ACC is the best conference in basketball this year. Also we have a young team vs a veteran team. So Georgia Tech is a team that will want to be here given their youth. I don't see Indiana being very interested at all. Also Tech has beat some very quality teams on their home court like Florida St Notre Dame North Carolina.
Jimmy Boyd
Valparaiso vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois -8½
I really like the value here with the Fighting Illini at home against the Crusaders. Valparaiso finished T-1st in the Horizon regular season and had expectations of making the Big Dance up until the time that they lost their best player and Horizon League Player of the Year in Alec Peters, who averaged a double-double with 23.0 ppg and 10.1 rpg. That kind of production is impossible to replace this time of year and it's also difficult for a team to bounce back from a big blow like this at this point in this season.
I know Illinois didn't have a great finish to the season, losing their regular season finale at Rutgers and getting blown out in the Big 10 tournament by Michigan. I just don't see this team laying down on their home court, where they went a respectable 12-5 this season. The Illini are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and Valpo is a mere 4-13 ATS in their last 17 1st round tournament games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto -109 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Panthers finally get healthy after months of playing without their best players and subsequently they get worse. Go figure. Florida has lost five in a row and eight of its last nine games. Seven of those nine games have been played at the BB&T Center in Sunrise. The question is why have the Panthers hit the skids? Well, first and foremost, just like Carolina, Dallas, Philadelphia, Winnipeg and last year’s Calgary Flames found out, without stable goaltending, winning consistently in this league is impossible. If the Flames had Jonas Hiller and Joni Ortio in goal again this year like they did last year, they would not be a playoff team. Everything starts with good goaltending. Weak goaltending means weak or soft goals and soft goals deflate the entire bench. Reimer, who is the main man now that starter Roberto Luongo (hip) is injured for at least another week, is 0-6-1 in his past seven decisions. Florida has picked up three out of a possible 18 points over its last nine games.
Not only has the goaltending been shaky but the Panthers have scored two goals or less in seven of their last eight games. The Panthers Corsi Against over their last 10 games ranks 27th out of 30 teams, which isn’t helping matters much either. Now things get even worse. The Panthers lost Aaron Ekblad to a concussion and he’s the QB of that defense. Ekblad is a factor on the PP and is the team’s best puck-moving defenseman. Keith Yandle’s name has been heard once or twice this entire season. Finally, for one of the rare times this season, the arena in Sunrise will be packed but the problem for the Panthers is that 75% of the fans will be wearing Blue and White because Florida is a haven for Toronto Snowbirds and vacationers and they can actually get a ticket to see their Maple Leafs play. No question that this one will have the feel of a home game for the Maple Leafs.
Toronto is tried and tested after following up its biggest win of the year over Philadelphia with a gutty victory over Carolina on Saturday. The Leafs likely didn’t deserve to win in Carolina but they had solid goaltending while the Hurricanes did not (again) and that could come into play here. The Maple Leafs stood the test of pressure against Philadelphia and now have another opportunity here, as the Islanders lost to Carolina yesterday and Philly lost to Columbus. With a win here, the Leafs essentially put the proverbial nail in Philadelphia and Florida’s respective coffins. The Leafs are just one point ahead of both the Islanders and Lightning but have a game in hand on both. After five straight losses at such a crucial time, the Maple Leafs have responded with three straight wins when it looked the pressure was getting to them. Mike Babcock and his staff know a thing or two about playing pressure filled games in mid-March. The Maple Leafs are the superior team here that is playing with more confidence than this fragile host. If this game was in Toronto, the Leafs would be a -150 favorite. That’s significant because this will feel like home.
Chicago +109 over MONTREAL
OT included. Not the best spot for the Canadiens. Montreal returns home from a four-game trip that started in New York and ended with the last three games being on the Canadian West Coast. Up next for the Habs is a crucial game against the Senators on CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada this Saturday, Thus, this game is sandwiched between that aforementioned trip and a huge game against Ottawa. The Canadiens have their groove back with seven wins in their last eight games but four of those wins occurred in OT while two others were by a single goal. They were also blasted 5-0 by Calgary last Thursday. While we like the Habs as a whole, they are usually in a dogfight every time out and this is not a good situational spot for them.
The Blackhawks rarely get a chance to play in Montreal and that alone is enough to keep them motivated, as Montreal is one of hockey’s hotbeds and historical cities. It’s a game every player and team looks forward to playing in and you can times that by 10 for players that rarely play here. The Blackhawks are a powerhouse in their own right that is rounding into playoff form and peaking at the right time. Chicago has won 13 of its last 16 games while scoring four goals or more in 12 of its last 16. Those are some incredible and impressive numbers. It’s also worth noting that the Blackhawks are coming off a weak effort against Minnesota in a game in which they brought very little intensity. That effort surely can’t be sitting well with Joel Quenneville or anyone else on that team. We’re very likely going to get Chicago’s best effort here and should that come to fruition, one has to like their chances to emerge with a victory.
Minnesota +120 over WASHINGTON
OT included. When the Capitals picked up Kevin Shattenkirk at the deadline, the talking heads called Shattenkirk the missing piece to the puzzle. The Caps haven’t won since. Shattenkirk will be out tonight but the Capitals might just be feeling a little uneasy right now, as their playoff ghosts of the past start to hover around them. Washington has lost four straight. They have also lost five straight to teams’ from the West and they’ll return home from a West Coast trip to face another Western team here. The Capitals have allowed four goals or more in four straight games while only generating 27, 19 and 27 shots on net in three straight respectively. Is it a minor funk that should be of little concern? Maybe not. The Capitals are 16th in Corsi For and their third and fourth lines do not stack up well against the other contenders. Washington’s second and third set of defense pairs are average too. The Caps have victories and that’s all the market and experts see but they’ve won 17 one-goal games this season, which is a product of mostly luck.
By contrast, Minnesota rolls out four lines worthy of significant ice time. The Wilds’ third line consists of Erik Haula, Jason Pominville and Zach Parise while Washington’s third line consists of Habs’ castoff, Lars Eller, Bolts’ castoff, Brett Connelly and Jakob Vrana, a good looking home grown talent. The Wild are in a bit of a funk too by having lost three of their last four games but it’s not because they are in poor form. The Wild dominated the Blackhawks last game in a 4-2 loss. They outshot Chicago 44-22 and out-chanced them by a wide margin as well. In its recent 2-1 loss to St. Louis, Minnesota allowed 20 shots on net while blasting away 33 of its own. The Wild are still in excellent form while the Caps are returning home from a trip not in great form. Lastly, it need not be said in the locker room but these players appreciate what Bruce Boudreau has brought with him. Boudreau has allowed these talented players to be creative on the ice while making hockey fun again and they’re thriving. Those same players are surely aware that this was Boudreau’s old stomping grounds for years and it’s more than just another game to him. Expect a focused and strong effort from this live puppy.
Pass NCAAB
Larry Ness
Philadelphia vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State -16.5
The Golden State Warriors had to play eight games in eight cities over 13 days and in the process lost Kevin Durant for at least a month, while suffering through poor shooting and overall poor play. The result was a 3-5 record, including a two-game losing streak (team's first in 146 regular season games) and now a three-game losing streak (note: The last time Golden State lost three in a row was Nov. 20-23, 2013!). The 76ers are coming to the end of a four-game road trip and are looking to head home even after pulling out a 118-116 win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. Philadelphia (24-42) continues to get strong efforts from its young players despite the team being out of the race, and forward Dario Saric is rapidly becoming the favorite to win Rookie of the Year.
Joel Embiid was a shoo-in for the award but his season was cut short (just 31 games). The 6-11 Saric had a season-high 29 points and added seven rebounds and five assists in Sunday's win at LA and has now scored in double digits in 16th straight games, reaching at least 20 points in eight of them. Rookie SG Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot got a rare chance to start on Sunday and delivered a season-high 18 points, one night after second-year big man Richaun Holmes scored a career-high 24 points against the Clippers.
The Warriors are 2-5 since Durant went down with a knee injury and held out Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala on Saturday at San Antonio, losing 107-85. The good news for Golden State is that the Warriors will play 11 of their final 16 games at home. The Warriors earned a 119-108 win at Philadelphia on Feb 27, their seventh straight victory in the series. The Warriors had been 10-0 at home against Eastern teams before losing 99-86 to the Celtics last Wednesday, so expect them to get back on track here.
Golden State has averaged 120.3 PPG in its 30 home games this season (26-4 SU) and I'll lay the large price in this one..
Will Rogers
Detroit vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -8
The set-up: The Cavaliers lost 117-112 Sunday at Houston and the defending champs have now lost four of five, as well as six of their last nine. Cleveland's recent slump has brought both the Celtics and Wizards back into the 'hunt' for the East's No. 1 seed. Cleveland hosts the 33-33 Detroit Pistons tonight, who currently own the East's No. 7 seed and just recently beat the Cavs, 106-101 last Thursday in Detroit.
Detroit: The Pistons have had a solid seven-man rotation all season and leading scorer Tobias Harris (16.4 & 5.2) scored a season-best 28 points in Saturday's 112-92 rout of the New York Knicks. He has scored 20 or more points in three of the past five games. Harris lost his starting job six-plus weeks ago but returned to the lineup for Thursday's win over Cleveland. Standout center Andre Drummond (14.9 & 13.9) has recorded eight double-doubles in the past nine games, after having 20 points and 16 rebounds against the Cavaliers and 24 points and 15 boards versus the Knicks.
Cleveland: The Cavs' defense has let the team down lately, allowing an average of 113.8 points over the last six games. Cleveland had no answer for Houston's James Harden, who had 38 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists. Making matters worse, Houston held a 52-38 rebounding edge and collected 20 offensive boards. Cleveland's problems in the frontcourt right now are real. Love hasn't played since his minor knee surgery on Valentine's Day. The Cavs are 6-6 without him and his 20 points and 11.1 rebounds per night are sorely missed. Will signing Larry Sanders, who last played in the NBA in 2014-15 for the Milwaukee Bucks, really help?
The pick: Not sure what to make of Cleveland's recent slump but after the Cavs were outscored by 12 points in the fourth quarter last Thursday at Detroit, I expect them to be much more focused and deliver a much better performance in this one. Lay the points.
Bruce Marshall
Houston Baptist -1
Campbell's dramatic run from the 7th seed to the final of the Big South Tourney (where Winthrop ended the fun) helped it become qualified for this event. But, as mentioned, the Camels were the seven seed in their conference tourney, which explains why they're not favored in early action at the Nevada sports books against under-the-radar Houston Baptist, which caught fire down the stretch and had a nine-game win streak broken by Sam Houston in the Southland Tourney last week. The Huskies have plenty of offense (79 ppg), their bench (nine players averaging double-digit minutes) is deep, and they have a legit post scoring threat in 6-11 Josh Ibarra (12.1 ppg, 59% FGs). A meatgrinder non-league slate that sent HBU to places like Texas Tech, New Mexico, Marquette, and Indiana suggests HBU will not be intimidated by the Camels' Gore Arena, which barely seats 3000. Play Houston Baptist