Free Picks for Tuesday, March 21st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
WARRIORS AT MAVERICKS
PLAY: MAVERICKS +4.5
It’s never easy to fade Golden State, but I’ll take that chance here. The Warriors were revved up to face the Thunder last night, and I suspect they will be in rest mode tonight at Dallas. I have no info as to whether anyone will bet the night off, but I would be surprised if the stars log their usual minutes.
Golden State has been a pretty bad spread team this season when playing the second of back to back games. The Warriors are only 4-10 ATS in that scenario this year. I would expect Dallas to simply be more excited about this particular game. Apparently the oddsmakers feel the same way, as this spread is very low and it looks really easy to play the powerhouse here. I’ll opt for the underdog. Note once again this is not a personal service play, just an opinion, but my choice here would be the Mavericks plus the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Richmond +8
Certainly TCU comes from the tougher conference and has home court edge but Richmond definitely won't be intimidated. The Spiders can play with anyone and I feel we're getting solid line value here with Richmond as a big dog. TCU's defense hasn't exactly been stellar of late. In fact, the Horned Frogs have allowed 46.7% or better from three point land in their last 3 games. Overall from the field teams have averaged over 50% from the field against Texas Christian University in their last 3 games. Arguably, the only reason TCU is here is because their last two opponents have had horrible shooting games at the free throw line. Talk about leaving points off of the scoreboard, the Horned Frogs last two opponents have shot 42.1% and 52.6% from the free throw line. Also, lets not forget that TCU had lost 7 straight games before their recent stretch that has seen them win 4 of their last 5. As for Richmond, they are rolling into Fort Worth with confidence as they have won 7 of their last 8 games and, going further back, 16 of their last 22. Over their last 8 games, the Spiders have been shooting the ball very well (including from 3 point land) and before their win over Oakland Sunday, 5 of their last 6 games were away from home. In other words, the Spiders hot shooting has included plenty of action away from home. Richmond is 9-3 ATS on the road this season and 5-1 ATS when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Horned Frogs are on a 5-12 ATS run against teams with a winning record.
Jim Feist
Chicago vs. Toronto
Play: Under 201½
Chicago puts out a good defensive effort for this coaching staff, tied for #7 in the NBA -- with Toronto. Chicago is on an 8-2 run under the total. Toronto's offense is still trying to get along without star guard Kyle Lowry. The Raptors are 16-5 under the total against the Eastern Conference, part of an 11-5 run under the total overall.
Jesse Schule
Richmond vs. TCU
Play: Under 151½
The Horned Frogs are coming off a high scoring 94-92 overtime win over Iowa, but I expect a lower scored here at home versus Richmond. TCU has only given up 65.4 points on 42.6 percent shooting at home, which is quite impressive considering they play top BIG12 teams like Kansas, West Virginia and Baylor. Richmond has gone under in 14 of it's last 20 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. The Spiders last road game was a 71-64 win at Alabama. The Horned Frogs have gone under in 21 of their last 30 non-conference games, and five of their last seven home games. Nine of TCU's last 10 games have seen a total lower than the number for tonight's game, and the same can be said of Richmond.
Jimmy Boyd
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans
Play: Pelicans -2
I really like the value here with New Orleans at basically a pick'em at home against the Grizzlies. It was a rough go of things for the Pelicans after acquiring DeMarcus Cousins, as they went just 2-6 over their first 8 games. That was to be expected, as it was going to take some time for Cousins and Davis to learn to play together, as well as how the other role players would fit in. It's starting to click, as New Orleans has won 4 of 5 and 3 straight at home, which includes wins over the Timberwolves, Rockets and Blazers.
Memphis is getting a lot of respect here, as they have won 4 straight and are fresh off a win at home over the Spurs, but I think they struggle to handle the new look Pelicans in this one. Grizzlies are just 12-22 ATS in their last 34 after playing their previous game at home and a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when playing on 2 days of rest.
John Ryan
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans
Play: Over 205
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
New Orleans is 24-11 OVER (+11.9 Units) in home games when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 3 seasons.
New Orleans is 17-6 OVER (+10.4 Units) in home games when they allow 100 to 105 points in a game over the last 3 seasons.
New Orleans is 27-11 OVER (+14.9 Units) in home games in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
Memphis is 14-5 OVER (+8.5 Units) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams attempting less than 25 free throws/game this season.
Other Fundamental and Technical Discussion Points
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the ‘OVER’.
Sean Murphy
Hurricanes vs. Panthers
Play: Under 5½
The Panthers haven't been scoring with any consistency lately - a big reason they've fallen out of the playoff race in the Eastern Conference. Returning home following a three-game road trip, I'm not confident in their ability to break things open against the Hurricanes on Tuesday.
Carolina is averaging just north of two goals per game on the road this season. The good news for them is they've managed to hold the Panthers to exactly two goals in regulation time in each of their previous two meetings this season.
Only two of the last nine meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total. I'll stick with the trend here.
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit vs. Brooklyn
Play: Over 215
The last 3 in the series have flown over and Detroit has posted over in 15 of 19 off 3 or more games that went under. Brooklyn plays up tempo and very little defense. Moving to the NBA League wide database we see that rested road teams with a total that is 200 or higher have played over the total over 85% of the time long term if they scored 110 or more as a home favorite of 10 or more like Detroit, if they are taking on a team that failed to cover as a home dog like Brooklyn. Play this game over the total.
Marc Lawrence
Chicago at Toronto
Pick: Chicago
Play - Chicago Bulls (Game 651). Edges - Bulls: 7-1 ATS away with 2 days of rest; and 6-2 ATS away as dogs against foes off back-to-back wins… Raptors: 0-11 ATS in this series. With Toronto just 3-5 ATS in games against foes off a SU underdog win this season, we recommend a 1* play on Chicago.
Wunderdog
Arizona @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Over 5.5
Seven of the last nine meetings have gone OVER, including Arizona's 5-3 win over the Lightning on Jan. 21. Five different players scored for the Coyotes in that game and Ben Bishop, who was later traded to Los Angeles, allowed five goals on 17 shots. Tampa Bay has allowed 10 goals its last two games, including a 5-3 loss to Washington on Saturday. Andrei Vasilevskiy gave up four goals on 34 shots and T.J. Oshie recorded a hat trick for the Capitals. Vasilevskiy has given up eight goals his last two games. Arizona was mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with its loss at Nashville last night. Mike Smith lost for the eighth time in his last 10 games and he has allowed nine goals his last three starts. The Coyotes are 6-1-1 OVER their last eight road games and eight of their last 10 games at Tampa Bay have gone OVER.
Scott Rickenbach
Bulls vs. Raptors
Play: Bulls +6.5
While the Raptors are very nearly locked into their playoff position - unlikely to catch Boston and unlikely to drop below Indiana - the Bulls are fighting for their playoff lives right now. Chicago is part of a grouping of 4 teams in the East - currently seeded from 7th to 10th - that are all only separated by 1.5 games in the standings. That makes this game critical for the Bulls and they are catching Toronto at a good time as the Raptors are off of a big win over the Pacers (the closest team to them in the standings). Chicago has certainly had the Raptors number with 11 straight wins over Toronto and an 11-0 ATS run for the Bulls in their match-ups. Chicago has had the past two days off and is 7-3 SU and ATS this season when they enter a game with two days of rest between games. The Bulls are also 24-14 ATS (and 27-11 ATS) the L3 seasons combined when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Chicago also now has a few games under their belt without Dwyane Wade as they adjust to life without the veteran player who is now out for the season with a fractured elbow. The Raptors are known for playing down to their level of competition and, off of that big win over Indiana, and with a strong Miami team on deck, don't be surprised if Toronto again falls short here. The Raptors are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record.
John Martin
Bulls vs. Raptors
Play: Bulls +7.5
The Bulls are in need of wins as they chase down the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. They picked up a huge won 95-86 over Utah on Saturday, and now they've had the last two days off to get ready for the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are very beatable right now without Kyle Lowry. They are just 5-5 in their last 10 games overall. The Bulls have the Raptors' number, going 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in the last 11 meetings. I think the value is with the road dog in this one.
Brandon Lee
Phoenix at Miami
Play: Miami -12
This is going to look like a huge number for Miami to be laying at home against the Suns. The Heat just lost 104-115 at home to the Trailblazers as a 6-point favorite and it came after the recent injury to Dion Waiters. I just don't think not having Waiters matters against the Suns, who have packed it in and are tanking to improve their lottery status. Phoenix has just shutdown Eric Bledsoe just because. Same thing with Tyslon Chandler. They are also without Brandon Knight and likely missing Devin Booker in this one. The Suns simply don't have the talent available to be competitive against a team like Miami, who is fighting for their playoff lives, especially on the road.
Ray Monohan
Milwaukee at Portland
Play: Portland -5
The Trail Blazers are hot right now and worthy of a free play on Tuesday. Portland has won 8 of their last 10 and it's Damien Lillard who is carrying this team right now.
Lillard has averaged 35.3 points per game over the last 4, as Portland has won 3 of them. He's been red hot from the field, shooting 55.1 percent in that span.
Some trends to note. Bucks are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Look for Portland to really dominate here. They're on fire and everyone is feeding of Lillard's play.