Andrew Gold
Bulls vs. Raptors
Play: Bulls +6½
The Bulls showed enough life last time out to prove they haven't gave up on the season. They were 7 point underdogs @ home vs the Jazz and came away with a win. Now they are playing a division rival and are coming off 2 days rest. Both games this year have been decided by less than 10 points so you know it will be competitive.
Stephen Nover
Bucks vs. Blazers
Play: Bucks +4½
The small-market Bucks are below the radar screen having won eight of their last 10 while going 7-3 ATS. One of those defeats came to Golden State this past Saturday when Milwaukee ran out of gas playing for the third time in four days, sixth in nine days and without rest. The Warriors certainly can make a tired road team look terrible. The Bucks aren't nearly that bad. Milwaukee enters this matchup having been idle the past two days. So the Bucks should have their full energy. This spot is fraught with danger for Portland. The Trail Blazers are home for the first time in 10 days having gone an impressive 4-1 on their road trip that concluded Sunday at Miami. The Trail Blazers are coming off straight-up victories against the Spurs, Hawks and Heat. They were underdogs in all three of those games. Now the Trail Blazers have to adjust to being back home while avoid suffering a letdown after such heady road performances. Recent history is not on the Trail Blazers' side here. Portland is 1-5 ATS the past six times as a home favorite with the one cover occurring against the Nets, who have the worst record in the NBA by far. On the season, Portland is just 14-17 ATS at home. I find it hard to back Portland as home chalk when it gives up 110 points per game. Only four teams surrender more points per game. The Bucks, by contrast, rank 10th defensively allowing 5 1/2 fewer points per game than the Trail Blazers. Milwaukee has been playing excellent defense lately, too. If you discount the Warriors' game, the Bucks have held six of their last eight opponents to 98 or fewer points. The Bucks defeated the Trail Blazers, 115-107, at home on Dec. 7 in the previous meeting. It's not a fluke. The Bucks are active in the paint - where the Trail Blazers are vulnerable - and can match Portland's athleticism. I would take Giannis Antekokounmpo over Damian Lillard as the best player on the court. The Bucks outscored the Trail Blazers by 24 points in the paint during their earlier victory.
Black Widow
Bucks vs. Blazers
Play: Bucks +4½
Bets against any team (Portland) off two more more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, a tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 32-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. This is a bad spot for the Blazers as it's their first game back home following a 5-game road trip. They are playing their 7th game in 11 days as well. The Bucks have had two days off having last played on Saturday.
Dave Price
Richmond +7½
The Richmond Spiders are 22-12 on the season and one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10. They have closed the season very strong, going 7-1 in their last 8 games overall. They went on the road and beat Alabama 71-64 as 8-point dogs, then topped Oakland 87-83. I look for them to give TCU a fight here. The Horned Frogs only won by 7 at home over Fresno State in the NIT opener and then survived in OT against Iowa. There's a good chance this one goes down to the wire as well and this 7.5-point spread comes into play. Richmond is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win this season. Richmond is 7-0 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. The Horned Frogs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Jack Jones
Detroit Pistons -5.5
The Detroit Pistons are currently tied with the Miami Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot int he Eastern Conference at 34-36 on the season. It's safe to say they'll be motivated the rest of the way, and that should help them focus to put away the NBA's worst team in the Brooklyn Nets (13-56) tonight.
The Nets will be without three of their best players tonight in G Sean Kilpatrick, G Jeremy Lin and G Joe Harris tonight. Kilpatrick and Lin are the two best playmakers for this team, so their offense takes a big hit without either of them in the lineup, let alone both.
Detroit is 20-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Brooklyn is 11-27 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days over the past two seasons. The Pistons are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games playing on one days' rest. Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Nets are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games.
Mark Franco
Detroit Pistons -5
The Detroit Pistons are clinging to the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference and are hoping a win over the Phoenix Suns on Sunday was what the team needed to shake out of an offensive malaise that resulted in a three-game slide last week. The Pistons will try to prove Sunday's win wasn't a one-game fluke when they visit the NBA-worst Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday.
Detroit is tied with the Miami Heat for the eighth spot, one game ahead of the ninth-place Chicago Bulls and a half-game behind the seventh-place Milwaukee Bucks in a battle for the final two playoff spots in the East.
Brooklyn's season has been marred by a series of injuries to point guard Jeremy Lin, who played in only 12 of the first 56 games due to a pair of hamstring injuries. Lin was finally enjoying his first sustained run leading the team until Sunday, when he went down with an ankle sprain that will leave him doubtful tonight.
Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest. Nets are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games.
Teddy Davis
Warriors vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +5
The Mavs are worth a look here catching the Warriors on a back to back. The Warriors cared about last night's game a lot more than this one. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them sit either Klay or Steph here. The Mavs are a motivated team right now just 2 games out of the 8th spot. Mavs are now back at full strength and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win one here tonight.
RJ Robbins
Memphis vs. New Orleans
Play: New Orleans -2
Both teams are Red Hot going 4-1 both SU & ATS! However the Pelicans durning that span averaging 117ppg while allowing 106ppg. The Pelicans are reaping the awards for the DeMarcus Cousins teaming him with All-Star Anthony Davis, in the modern day version of 'The Towers'!
SPORTS WAGERS
Carolina +113 over FLORIDA
The downward spiral of the Panthers ended with a sickening thud in a 4-0 loss to the Penguins on Sunday. It's been a miserable run for Florida, especially when you consider they were in a Wild Card Playoff position just a month ago. The Panthers have won just three of their last 13 games since. Florida now sits 7th in the Eastern Conference and a full eight points back of Toronto for the final playoff spot. The fact the Panthers have to leapfrog five teams just to get in gives them only a 0.4% chance to make the postseason. Panthers' center Vincent Trocheck seemed resigned to his team's fate after that no-show in Pittsburgh, “I'm hoping we can turn things around and play the right way just for our team for the future”. It's not just the players that have seemingly given up either. Panthers' interim head coach Tom Rowe added, “We have a lot of good pieces. It's just we have to re-evaluate when the season's over.” Does that stock answer sound like a guy that's fighting for his job? With the Panthers collapse, Rowe is likely finished behind the bench. It's hard enough for a coach to get his message through to the players at the best of times but when he's a lame duck, it's nearly impossible, see Hitchcock, Ken. We wish Mr. Rowe all the best in his future endeavors.
While the Hurricane's playoffs hopes took a hit in a 4-3 overtime loss against the Flyers, Carolina has been playing damn good hockey lately. Unlike the Panthers, nobody had the Hurricanes sniffing the Wild Card picture a month ago. The Hurricanes basically have no shot at the postseason with just a 1.9% chance but misery loves company and Carolina is ruining dreams one game at a time and taking names in the process. The ‘Canes just beat the Islanders 8-4 and took three out of a possible four points in that crucial home-and home series. They just beat Nashville, 4-2 to make the Preds sweat for a couple of days. In a recent game against another playoff hopeful, the ‘Canes lost in OT to Toronto, 3-2, but were clearly the better team. Carolina is 4-0-3 in its last seven games and has picked up points in eight if its last nine games. No team has been more beatable than the Panthers over the past month and so team has had worse goaltending than the Panthers over that same stretch. We get the better everything plus a tag so yeah, we’ll bite.
Philadelphia +109 over WINNIPEG
OT included. The Flyers hit the road for their last real road trip of the season. After this one, Philadelphia heads to Minnesota on Thursday before a back-to-back Saturday and Sunday in Columbus and Pittsburgh. Mathematically, the Flyers are still in this. They are seven points out with 11 games remaining so 22 points are up for grabs. That absolutely gives them hope and hope is a beautiful (and motivating) thing. Philadelphia has won two of its last three games. The Flyers defeated Pittsburgh 4-0 last week and then beat a very warm Carolina squad on Sunday in OT but outshot the ‘Canes 44-22. The Flyers are in good form and while you may read about their “special teams” woes lately (4/46 on PP and 9/22 goals allowed on PK), that actually works in our favor because it evens out over time. Penalty killing and power-play numbers are a series of peaks and valleys all season long with no consistency whatsoever. The Flyers are due for big improvements both ways.
Then there’s the Winnipeg Jets, a team we have written about numerous times this season. Talent wise, Winnipeg is as good as any team in the NHL and then some. In fact, the Jets might own the best collection of forwards in the NHL and it might not be close. They scare the “you-know-what” out of us when we bet against them but we can’t worry about that. Despite having talent galore, it’s the intangibles that prevent Winnipeg from thriving and this is precisely the type of game they lose far more often than they win. Philadelphia is a team the Jets rarely see so there isn’t any bad blood here. The Jets head off to California to play the Kings on Thursday and then the Ducks on Friday. Knocking off the Kings on Thursday and essentially ending L.A.’s playoff hopes would give the Jets great pleasure. Winnipeg is coming off two straight wins but looked like a minor league team against Minnesota on Sunday. The Jets blew a 4-0 lead but won 5-4 in OT after being outshot 48-21. Running around for 60 minutes in your own end is tiring and now the Jets will play this one minus four or five regular defensemen. Toby Enstrom and Tyler Myers are still out. Jacob Trouba is day-to-day with an upper-body injury, Paul Postma and Mark Stuart missed Monday's practice and at least one won’t play and likely both. Ben Chiarot practiced yesterday but he’s hobbled. The Jets have called up a bunch of Manitoba Moose defensemen and if the Flyers can’t take advantage, shame on them.
Calgary +165 over WASHINGTON
OT included. Win or lose, this line is beyond nuts and is so high because of an overreaction that we’ll get to in a second. The Washington Capitals are not a better team than the Calgary Flames and if they are, it’s by the slimmest of margins. The Capitals may have more points than the Flames but it matters not, as Calgary has played a tougher schedule and they are in much better form too. The Caps have some really strong forwards and stable goaltending but so do the Flames. Where Calgary’s edge gets significant is on the third and fourth lines and on defense.
Michael Stone may turn out to be the best trade-deadline pickup of the year. After playing with the Coyotes and in the shadows of OEL, he is thriving in his new role. He looks so comfortable out there and that’s because he’s extremely talented and joins the NHL’s best group of defensemen. T.J Brodie, Dougie Hamilton, Mark Giordano and Stone make up the best blue-line foursome in the NHL.
That aside, Washington is overpriced here because they are Washington and because there is an overreaction to a couple of key forwards being out for the Flames. Michael Ferland is still in isolation and may have the mumps while Matthew Tkachuk will miss the next two games due to suspension. What that does is mess up the Flames top two lines of Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund, and Michael Frolik along with Johnny Gaudreau, Ferland and Sean Monahan. However, the Flames are so deep that any one of a number of players now gets an opportunity. Curtis Lazar looked great last game and could easily fill in while Sam Bennett, Lance Bouma, Troy Brouwer or Kris Versteeg are all capable of being first or second line replacements. Washington is laboring down the stretch while the Flames are thriving and now Calgary will have extra-motivated players filling in at the top while the rest of the team will also dig down deeper in support of their two missing pieces. Big overlay here.
San Jose +145 over MINNESOTA
OT included. San Jose played last night in Dallas and lost 1-0 but it wasn’t because they played poorly. Combine a loss to the Stars with playing the tail end of back-to-back games and there you have the overreaction. This is by far the biggest price that the Sharks have been offered all season long. They are usually favored in the -160 range and now they’re a dog in this range because of the above mentioned factors and because this market believes the Wild are long overdue for a victory after five straight losses. Incidentally, the Sharkies are feeling a bit hungry too after their third loss in a row last night. Furthermore, the Sharks are 9-3-1 this season in the second game of back-to-backs so the more they play, the better they are.
That brings us to goaltending. If we knew which goaltender was going to be better every game, we’d be giving out 85% winners. The better goaltending usually wins and it’s that simple. That brings us to Devan Dubnyk, a former castoff goaltender that transformed into a superstar overnight. Before catching fire with the Wild, Dubnyk was cut or traded by Arizona, Nashville and Edmonton after receiving numerous chances. Some guys take longer than others to live up to expectations (Dubnyk was a first round, 14th overall pick in 2004) but Dubnyk was weak for a much longer stretch than being good and we’re not talking about a few years either. Dubnyk was mired in mediocrity or worse for almost a decade and those ghosts of the past are rearing their ugly heads again.
In his first 27 starts through Dec. 29, Dubnyk was 18-6-3 and ranked first in the NHL with a 1.58 goals-against average and .947 save percentage. In 31 games and 29 starts since Dec. 29, Dubnyk is 18-12 with a 2.74 goals-against average and .908 save percentage. In that span, he ranks 22nd in GAA and 26th in save percentage among goalies who have played at least 16 games. He has given up four or more goals in a game nine times. In March, Dubnyk is 1-8 in nine starts and is 2-7 in 10 games with a 2.92 GAA and .899 save percentage. He has gone seven starts without a victory and aside from physically struggling, his mental state has to be fragile too. If Devan Dubnyk comes up with a beauty here and this turns out to be just a modest slump, we can live with that. However, if he’s as fragile and average right now as he looked in 11½ of the past 13 years, we’ll, this is bet might turn out to be a beauty. We’ll take that chance because even if Dubnyk plays well, the Sharkies can still win.
SPORTS WAGERS
TCU -7½ over Richmond
Richmond's road to the NCAA Tournament ended in the Atlantic 10 Championship game when they lost the semi-finals to VCU. The Spiders were thought to be a bubble team but likely lost their shot at an at-large bid after #4 seed, Rhode Island, won the A10 and the conference's automatic bid. That left #1 Dayton and #2 VCU receiving invitations to the Big Dance. Incidentally, all three teams from the A-10 are now watching the post-season from the rails and VCU looked pretty ugly in its defeat to St. Mary’s.
So far in this NIT, the Spiders are 2-0 with wins over Alabama and Oakland, but Richmond is about to take a big step up in competition tonight. Against major conference competition this season, the Spiders have not fared well by going just 1-3 against Power 5 conference teams this season. Their only win against a major conference power came against Boston College, who finished dead last in the ACC.
A 0-7 end to their regular season put an end to any “tournament” talk for the Horned Frogs. With the pressure off and a Big 12 Title being their only way to the Big Dance, TCU went on an improbable run to the semis that included a win over #3 Kansas, who now look like the best team in the country. TCU lost to eventual champion Iowa State. On paper, TCU's record does not look impressive, but a closer look at their competition reveals that the Frogs rarely got a night off in the brutal Big 12, a conference that sent six teams to the Main Event, half of which made it to the Sweet 16. The Horned Frogs have been playing some of the best teams in the nation night after night for months. They’re battle tested after playing the 9th toughest schedule in the nation. In its last game, TCU knocked off Iowa, who is another battle tested major conference power. Coming off a close game against Iowa, combined with an injury to starting guard Jaylen Fisher has created an underlay on the chalk here. The Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena is sold out and will be drenched in purple and enthusiasm. The Spiders are very simply not even close to being in the same class as the teams that TCU competed against and didn’t look a bit out of place against all season long. Swallow the deflated points.
Will Rogers
Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
Pick: Pittsburgh
The set-up: The 45-17-9 Pittsburgh Penguins can clinch a playoff spot with a road win over the 30-31-12 Buffalo Sabres Tuesday night. What's more, with some help from the Calgary Flames (who play at Washington), the Pens could find themselves in the lead for the Presidents' Trophy (more in a bit). The Sabres won 2-1 last night in Detroit but won't have any time to savor the victory, with this quick turnaround against the defending champs.
Pittsburgh: The Caps and Blue Jackets each own 100 points atop the 'loaded' Metropolitan Division, with the Penguins checking in with 99 points. The Caps host the red-hot Flames, winners of 12 of their last 13 tonight, while the Blue Jackets are idle. Therefore, a Pittsburgh win and a Washington loss would leave the Pens with 101 points and the Caps and Blue Jackets at 100. Pittsburgh has outscored its opponents 10-4 in the last two games as the Pens have moved closer to their franchise record-tying 11th straight postseason berth. Captain Sidney Crosby recorded half of those goals to raise his season total to a league-high 40 and move within two points of Edmonton's Connor McDavid (82) for first in the race for the Art Ross Trophy.
Buffalo: The Sabres are looking for their third consecutive victory, after concluding a four-game road trip with 2-1 triumphs in Anaheim and Detroit.However, it's no rest for the weary with this game tonight against the defending champs. Jack Eichel opened the scoring for Buffalo in Monday's win on the power play, with his 21st goal of the season. He missed the start of the season with a high ankle sprain but has been producing at a top-notch rate since returning; he has 50 points (21 goals, 29 assists) in 52 games. Goalie Robin Lehner turned away 34 shots in the win and has been one of the few positives for the Sabres through this trying season. He owns a 2.64 GGA & .922 save percentage in 52 games.
The pick:Pittsburgh can't control what happens in Washington with the Flames and Caps but expect them to win here, clinching that 11th straight playoff berth.
Buster Sports
Golden State at Dallas
Play: Dallas +4
The Golden St. Warriors went into OKC last night and gave them and old fashioned beat down and now all the talking heads say they are back after winning 4 in a row. We say they just stepped up their game last night for Durant as they looked how everyone expects them to play. They really can just go through the motions till the playoffs and that is what they will do tonight. The Warriors are still only 6-5 SU without Durant and now after all that emotion last night they play right back in Dallas tonight. Love that situation and the Warriors are just 3-9 ATS playing in back to backs. The reason this is not a premium pick for us is the fact that Dallas is just back from a 4 game road trip. The Mavericks however have been playing some nice basketball of late winning 6 out of their last 9 games. The line at the time of this writing is Golden St. minus 4 and we will side with the underdog here. Backing our selection is the fact that Dallas is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.
Stephen Nover
Rangers / Devils Over 5
The Rangers are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NHL. They have scored three or more goals in five of their last six games. The Devils are giving up an average of four goals per game during their last five games.
The Devils' defense has slipped and their goaltending has proven overrated this season.
New Jersey, though, should do its share of damage on the offensive end at home against Rangers backup goalie Antti Raanta. The Devils have scored a power play goal in each of the last four games while the Rangers have yielded a power play goal in six straight games.
There haven't been fewer than five goals scored during the past four meetings between the two teams.
Bruce Marshall
Milwaukee +5
Portland has gone to the whip in its attempt to collar Denver for the last West playoff berth, winning last 3, and 4 of 5 on just-completed road trip that featured unexpected wins at San Antonio, Atlanta, and Miami. Damian Lillard has shifted into overdrive, scoring 31.1 ppg in March to spark a Portland offense, along with impact C newcomer Jusuf Nurkic, who has looked as good as anyone in fueling the Blazers' 8-2 SU surge this month. Meanwhile, the Bucks' road-heavy schedule from here to the regular-season finish means a playoff berth will be a challenge. But a deliberate pace over the past 17 games in conjunction with Khris Middleton's return have turned this team around, resulting in a 12-5 uptick. Any price approaching two buckets gets us interested in Milwaukee.
OC Dooley
Suns +12.5
Even though Phoenix is on a nasty 1-12 "series" skid, the Suns did get some confidence WINNING their most recent clash against Miami where the DEFENSE held the Heat to just 90 points on the scoreboard. There is INJURY news regarding tonight's hosts at Miami lost in front of their fans back on Sunday in part due to the absence of starting guard Dion Waiters (ankle) who also has been ruled OUT tonight. The absence of Waiters is significant considering he is #2 in assists and #3 scoring on the team. I will admit Phoenix has been on a tailspin and just lost at Detroit back on Sunday Night by a whopping 17 point margin. But they fit a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (30-13 since 1996) which actually plays ON double-digit underdogs like Phoenix after a blowout loss of 15+ points against an opponent after a "combined" 215+ points have been tallied in consecutive outings