DAVE COKIN
SAINT MARY’S VS VALPARAISO
PLAY: VALPARAISO -4.5
A pair of teams who might well feel as though they’re participating in the wrong tournament do battle tonight as Saint Mary’s travels to Valparaiso. Both the Gaels and Crusaders have strong cases to be made that they each should have gotten a Big Dance invite. Instead, they’re both now trying to get to New York City in the NIT.
This is really a big chance for the Gaels to make a statement. I don’t think there’s a shred of doubt that the main reason they didn’t get the NCAA bid was their schedule, and I really can’t argue with that being the culprit. Saint Mary’s played only one non-conference road game, and that was a loss at California. Plus, it’s not like the Gaels were beating up powerhouse entries at home, either. Their longest trip of the entire season was to BYU. Simply stated, if you’re a mid-major and you want to insure at-large consideration, the non-league slate has to be tougher than the one the Gaels enjoyed this season.
That lack of experience on the non-conference road is one reason I will be against them tonight. But there are a couple more worth noting. First off, Valparaiso could be the fresher team tonight. They’ve been off since Thursday. The Gaels had to get past Georgia on Sunday and will have to endure a much quicker turnaround here in addition to having to finally log some miles.
I also see the matchup being a potential problem for the visitors. Saint Mary’s is a very selective team when it comes to shooting the basketball. They’re extremely efficient, not a doubt about that. But they tend to milk the shot clock while searching for that good look, and Valpo has been very adept at forcing bad shots, or sometimes no shot at all when that shot clock approaches zero.
This is one of those games where for virtually every strength on Saint Mary’s, there’s a solid offset on the Crusaders side nearly right down the line. In terms of overall power ratings, it’s clearly a very close call. But for me it’s more about category duels and what Valpo does tends to nullify the Saint Mary’s assets. Add in the scheduling dynamics and I see enough of an edge to warrant a play on Valparaiso minus the reasonable number.
Ben Burns
Oilers vs. Coyotes
Play: Over 5
While they've been blanked in back-to-back games, the Coyotes should finally score some goals tonight. The Oilers allow 32.3 shots per game on the road, allowing an average of 3.1 goals in games away from Edmonton. Even though they've played better recently, they've still allowed three or more goals in four of their past five games. Nine of the past 14 meetings (and 25 of the past 36) have finished above the total. All this season's earlier meetings had an O/U line of 5.5. Tonight's is only five. While we have to lay a little extra juice to get that five, I feel its fair value. Consider the Over.
Marc Lawrence
Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets
Prediction: Brooklyn Nets
Edges -Nets: 9-5 ATS last 14 games in this series; and 13-7 ATS off a loss versus foe off a SUATS win this season. Hornets: 3-7 SUATS without rest in this series. With Charlotte in off a shocking home win over San Antonio last night, we recommend a 1* play on Brooklyn.
Jesse Schule
Anaheim Ducks vs. Montreal Canadiens
Play: Anaheim Ducks -165
The Ducks are in a heated battle in the Pacific Division, just four points back of first place Los Angeles, with the Sharks just one point back in third place. Every game from this point forward has to be treated like a must win game, and they should be able to make up ground with a win here against a banged up Habs team no longer in playoff contention. Montreal's season was derailed by an injury to star goaltender Carey Price, and rookie backup Mike Condon has really struggled since. Condon ranks near the botttom of the NHL with a .904 save percentage, and he's 1-5-1 with a 3.40 GAA in his last seven starts. In addition to the injury to Price, the Habs have eight position players on the injury list, most notably star defenseman P.K. Subban. The Ducks on the other hand are getting stellar goaltending from Jon Gibson, who is 5-2-1 with a 1.91 GAA over his last nine starts, and 2-0 with a 1.44 GAA in two career starts versus Montreal. The Ducks own the league's best special teams, ranking 1st in power-play percentage as well as penalty kill rate. They've also allowed fewer goals than any other team in the league. They've won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series, and four of their last five at the Bell Centre.
Jim Feist
Heat at Pelicans
Pick: Over
Miami has found the scoring touch of late, posting well over 100 points in each of their last 10 games. Not surprisingly, the Heat have gone OVER in six straight games. Surprisingly, New Orleans has also been a good over team of late. The Pelicans have gone over in four straight games and eight of the last 10. Moreover, the team is 23-7-1 O/U their last 31 overall. The Pelicans have been a very good over bet at home, posting a 39-17 O/U mark in their last 56 home games. These clubs have gone over in six of the last eight meetings and the last four in New Orleans.
Jimmy Boyd
BYU -4
I believe we are getting some great value here with BYU due to the fact that Kyle Collinsworth is listed on the injury report as questionable with the flu. Collinsworth has had a couple days to recover and his teammates are confident that he will be out there for this game. I expect the same from the senior standout. While there's a good chance Collinsworth plays, we know for sure that Creighton will be without guard Isaiah Zierden. That's a big loss. Zierden averages 10.2 ppg and is the Bluejays top 3-point threat. The other big key here is the game being played at BYU, where the Cougars are 15-2 on the season. Creighton on the other hand is just 6-9 on the road and have dropped 4 straight away from home. Both teams average right around 80.0 ppg offensively, but BYU allowed just 69.5 ppg at home and Creighton gives up 77.7 ppg on the road. BYU failed to cover the spread in their last game against Virginia Tech, but are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 following a game where they failed to beat the number. The Cougars are also 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games off a win by 6 points or less.
Power Sports
Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets
Pick: Brooklyn Nets
This seems like a pretty obvious fade spot to me, as far the Hornets are concerned after they pulled off an improbable come from behind victory last night at home against San Antonio. The Spurs jumped out to 28-7 lead after the 1st quarter, but incredibly were held to just 60 pts the rest of the way. Can you say letdown?
There's a real strong home vs. road dichotomy going on for Charlotte as they are an outstanding 27-11 SU at home (average 105.1 PPG), but on the road the record is only 13-19 SU and they are being outscored by 2.3 PPG. Thus, the idea of them as a road favorite is not all that appealing, especially when they're just one day removed from an improbable win over one of the best teams in the league. Sure enough, while the team is 5-4 SU and ATS in the road favorite road this season, they are outscoring opponents - on average - by about 2.5 points per game. This price range is just too rich for them.
Ever since the All-Star Break, Brooklyn has played most of its games on the road, and that's gone about as well as you might have expected. They come into tonight's game as losers in six of their last seven contests, including double digit losses at Detroit and Chicago their last two. But they are rested (last played Saturday) and are back at home. I just can't see the Hornets being able to follow up last night's performance with any kind of dominant effort here, so taking the points is the way to go.
Will Rogers
Edmonton Oilers at Arizona Coyotes
Pick: Arizona Coyotes
The Edmonton Oilers are back on the road after a 2-3-0 home-stand as they travel to Arizona for a match-up against the Coyotes Tuesday night. The Yotes will need a miracle finish to make it to the post-season, but I think they'll at least give themselves a chance with a victory tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Arizona's Offense - The Coyotes have been shut out in back-to-back defeats against Tampa Bay and San Jose, but they're averaging a healthy 3.00 goals per game at home in Glendale while Edmonton is scoring a poor 2.11 goals per game on the road.
2. Previous Meetings - The Coyotes have won 23 of the last 28 meetings overall and four straight at home at Gila River Arena. They've won three of four in the season series, the lone loss a 4-3 shootout defeat at Edmonton on Jan. 2.
3. X-Factor - Arizona's netminder Mike Smith shut out Edmonton in a 4-0 win at Edmonton only 10 days ago and he's 12-1-1 with a 2.36 GAA in his career versus Edmonton.
Larry Ness
Oilers at Coyotes
Pick: Coyotes
Arizona was blanked in back-to-back games by Tampa Bay (Saturday) and San Jose (Sunday), with those two shutout losses just about dooming any realistic chance the Coyotes have at making the postseason. Arizona now finds itself 11 points behind Colorado for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, having gone 9-18-3 in its last 30 games. Edmonton has won SEVEN of 12 but its record of 29-39-7 is even worse than Arizona’s, with the Oilers just trying to avoid finishing in the basement of the Western Conference (currently holds a a one-point edge over Winnipeg).
Tonight’s game is the the first of a four-game Arizona homestand and Edmonton, as it has so often for quite awhile now, should play the perfect foil. Arizona is 3-0-1 in the season series with Edmonton and the Coyotes are 23-1-4 in 28 meetings with the Oilers since January 2010 (Arizona is 18-0-4 vs Edmonton in the last 22 games). As Archie Bunker used to opine, “Case Closed!”
Jimmy Boyd
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Lakers. Despite being hit hard with injuries, the Grizzlies continue to play well. Memphis followed up a 113-102 win at home against the Clippers with a 103-97 victory at Phoenix last night.
Playing on the road in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, as well as their 5th game in 7 days, is typically a good time to fade a team. However, Memphis is 11-4 ATS this season when playing on no rest and a perfect 4-0 ATS when playing for the 5th time in 7 days.
The key here is they are taking on one of the worst teams in the league in the Lakers, who come in having lost 4 straight, all at home. Los Angeles has zero to play for down the stretch and the Grizzlies aren't exactly a team to get motivated for. At the same time, Memphis has owned the Lakers this season. They have won all 3 meetings by at least 9-points. They have also won 9 straight in the series overall.
Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games when facing a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record and 0-3 ATS after playing 4 straight at home.
Dave Price
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are an impressive 27-9 at home this season, while the Houston Rockets are just 16-20 on the road. The Rockets have been blown out by 16 at Charlotte and by 12 at Atlanta in their last two road games, and now they take an even bigger step up in competition against the Thunder. OKC has won four straight coming into this one with three of those victories coming by 14 points or more. It comes in on 2 days' rest and is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Rockets have a banged-up James Harden who is questionable to play tonight as well.
Jack Jones
Memphis Grizzlies -3
The Memphis Grizzlies continue to play well in spite of all their injuries right now. They still have Zach Randolph healthy, and Lance Stephenson has proven to be one of the best pickups prior to the trade deadline. Look for them to keep winning tonight against the lowly Los Angeles Lakers.
The Grizzlies are clearly playing with a chip on their shoulder right now as everyone has written them off due to the injuries. They beat the Clippers by 11 at home, and came back with a 6-point win at Phoenix in their last contest. They own the Lakers, going 9-0 in the last nine meetings, and 5-0 in their last five meetings in Los Angeles.
The Lakers haven't offers a lot of resistance here of late, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They have lost at home to the likes of the Knicks, Kings and Suns during this skid, so they have proven they can lose to anyone. None of those three teams are better than the Grizzlies.
Plays on road favorites (MEMPHIS) - poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (at least 102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more two straight games are 64-35 (64.6%) ATS since 1996. The Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Lakers are 22-45-1 ATS in their last 68 vs. Western Conference foes.
Brandon Lee
Heat/Pelicans Under 210
The books have set the total way too high for tonight's game between the Heat and Pelicans. New Orleans put up 109 points in a shocking 109-105 win over the Clippers at home in their last game, which saw the two teams eclipse the total of 209. The Pelicans have now went over the total in 4 straight games. Miami has also seen the over cash in 6 straight games. All of this has the total inflated. This is a tough spot for the Heat off a win at home against the Cavs and a huge road game on deck tomorrow against the Spurs. They aren't going to be interested in pushing the pace, as they want to save energy for San Antonio. Pelicans on the other hand are missing so many key pieces offensively right now and will be going up against a very good Miami defense.
Chase Diamond
Grizzlies vs. Lakers
Play: 202
This free premium winner features the 41-30 Grizzlies and the 14-55 Lakers. We played on and won on the Grizzlies last night and now today they are on their 3rd game in 4 nights and I think there will be tired legs and the Lakers will be fresh off 3 days rest and maybe there will be some rust there. I love the under in this game the total opened up at 204.5 and is at 202 in most spots.
Ray Monohan
Edmonton vs Arizona
Play: Arizona -119
The Coyotes welcome in the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday night and the value lies with the home team here. Arizona has really dug themselves a giant hole, now 11 points back of Colorado for a playoff spot.
They begin a 4 game home stand and this couldn't come at a better time, against a better team. Arizona is 3-0-1 this season against Edmonton and the Coyotes are 23-1-4 in 28 meetings with the Oilers.
Some trends to consider. Coyotes are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Oilers are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Arizona. Look for Arizona to continue their dominance here, as they roll over the Oilers once again.