Wunderdog
Saint Mary's @ Valparaiso
Pick: Valparaiso -3.5
St. Mary's is 28-5 on the season, and many feel they got slighted in the NCAA Tournament selection process. The Gaels' problem is scheduling an out-of-conference slate of opponents that was inferior to most they were weighed against, as well as a true lack of quality wins. This team started the season 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS, but finished just 5-12 ATS, which included an ugly 2-8 ATS on the road. Valparaiso is right there with them logging a 28-6 mark on the season. The Crusaders have been 16-2 SU at home winning on average here by 16 points per game. The difference here is the Valpo defense that has allowed 38% shooting against them on the season, and St. Mary's shoots 4.3% lower outside the confines of their own building, which will be enough to put Valpo over the top. Play on Valparaiso.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLUMBUS +100 over Philadelphia
OT included. There is no question that one has to respect what the Flyers have accomplished over the past few weeks. It’s no secret that the Flyers are one of the hottest teams in the NHL right now and they’re in the spotlight too. Philly is coming off an easy 4-1 win over the Islanders last night. The Flyers just beat the Blackhawks in Chicago the day after defeating Detroit in their biggest game of the year. The Flyers have picked up points in 13 of their last 16 games and a victory here combined with a Detroit loss in Tampa would vault the Flyers into a playoff spot. There is also no question that the Flyers have all the appeal here because of how hot they are while the Jackets have little appeal in comparison. We often suggest that the best time to jump off a team is when everyone is jumping off and we’re going to apply that for this one game.
The Jackets will have something to say about which teams get in and which teams do not. Columbus has been bringing their best game forward for the better pasrt of the past six weeks. While the Flyers are getting all the attention, the Jackets have quietly picked up points in 17 of their last 23 games. It’s is no coincidence that the Jackets play improved greatly since David Savard returned from injury to give the Jackets at least two very solid puck-moving defensemen with Seth Jones being the other. The Jackets are playing at an extremely high level right now. They’re winning games and they’re making life miserable for many. In other words, the Jackets are having fun and they’ll be extremely jacked up here at Nationwide to make life miserable for the Flyers too.
This one is all about recognizing an undervalued home team in a good spot. Philly is coming off a series of extremely important games against teams that are going to the playoffs or competing with them to get in (Tampa, Florida, Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh and the Islanders). The victories over Detroit last week and the Islanders last night were HUGE. The short price may seem attractive on Philadelphia but the toll those last few games figured to have taken on them means the short price on the Jackets is the only thing that is appealing in this game.
CHICAGO -½ +130 over Dallas
Regulation only. There are plenty of reasons for backing the Stars here and we’ll start with their recent dominance over this hated rival. Dallas has defeated Chicago three times this season already and in five of the past six games that they have played. Furthermore, the Stars are warm with two straight victories and points in seven of their last eight games overall. The only team that the Stars have lost to in regulation over their last eight games was the Los Angeles Kings. However, most of those games were at home. Dallas’ last two road games came in Montreal and Ottawa and they lost to the reeling Habs while just edging out Ottawa, 2-1. Over their past six road games, Dallas has lost to Montreal, Arizona, Nashville and St. Louis with only victories occurring in Winnipeg and Ottawa. So while the Stars appear to warm, they are not close to being warm on the road. Additionally, when you have two wildly inconsistent goaltenders, it’s near impossible to stay warm for an extended period of time. In other words, Dallas is capable of giving up five or six goals on any given night.
For the first time in a very long time, the Blackhawks are being asked questions they are rarely asked. Chicago has not been in a funk like this in a very long time, which allows us to buy them at a good price. Chicago has lost five of their last six games with only victory over that span occurring against Winnipeg. Against the West, the Blackhawks are 1-9 over their last 10 games, further decreasing their value. Lastly, the Blackhawks are forced to go with their backup goaltender Scott Darling and this market does not like to get behind backup goaltenders. We played the Blackhawks against Minnesota on Sunday and ripped up our ticket after they fell behind 2-0 and eventually lost, 3-2. That game was on NBC Sunday night so it didn’t exactly endear the Blackhawks to the audience but we’re not ready to bail on this team quite yet. Chicago is a monster at home that is just going through a difficult stretch right now. When they play to their capabilities, they should be able to bury a team with weak goaltending and a weak defense like the one they’ll face. Chicago will get their intensity back soon enough and this is a playoff team that they don't want to give any confidence to.
Vancouver +127 over WINNIPEG
OT included. Vancouver has lost four in a row and eight of its last 11 games. Included over that span was a recent 5-2 home loss to these same Jets just eight days ago. Vancouver has scored just three goals over its last four games and they have an injury list that stretches 10 deep coming into this game tonight. The point is that the Canucks have very little market appeal at the moment, which provides us with an opportunity to buy them at a very decent price in a winnable game. This is one of those games and it’s more about fading the Jets than it is about buying Vancouver anyway.
Winnipeg is coming off two home games against Anaheim and Chicago. The Jets lost them both but they played hard and the loss to the Ducks occurred in OT. Winnipeg takes a massive step down in class here after playing that pair but that actually works to our advantage. It’s simple to get jacked up for the best but it’s not so simple to get jacked up against the worst after playing consecutive games against those two beasts. Winnipeg has shown us all year long that they are in no way to be trusted in this price range against anyone. The Jets allow more goals than the Canucks, they take far more penalties than Vancouver does and they are also ranked below the Canucks in both the power-play and penalty kill. For those that want to apply the completely “banged up” angle on the Canucks here, how about we apply it to the Jets. On the rack for Winnipeg is Mathieu Perreault, Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers and Joel Armia, all impact players and let’s not forget that they traded Andrew Ladd at the deadline too. So, while the Canucks are missing a slew of players that are easily replaceable, Winnipeg is without irreplaceable players within the organization.
Now it all comes down to which team wants this one more and we’re betting that it’ll be the Canucks. Vancouver is 0-3 against the Jets this year and surely wants to avoid losing all four times to this familiar enemy. Winnipeg has no score to settle against Vancouver and has taken more nights off this season than any team in the NHL. We can’t think of a single reason why the Jets care much about this one and even if they do, they’ll still probably lose because that’s what Winnipeg does.
Ken Thomson
Creighton +4.5
Greg McDermott is a solid coach and even though his son, Doug has gone on to the NBA, Coach Mac continues to win at Creighton. The Blue Jays excel in hometown Omaha but should be ready tonight against Dave Rose and his BYU Cougars.
They'll be a lot of Blue & White all over the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah for tonight's game as is par for the course for Cougar home games. The Blue Jays also wear Blue & White and look to feel at home when they tangle with the Cougs in this NIT quarterfinal game with the winner heading off to NYC and Madison Square Garden.
Both teams have plenty of weapons on offense. The Cougars were tested big time in their last home game by Virginia Tech, a game won by the Cougars 80-77 down the stretch.
BYU will have the home court advantage as well as an altitude advantage against their opponents from Omaha. At over 4,500 feet above seas level in Provo, the endurance of Creighton will be tested. McDermott however has a deep squad and should be shuffling players in and out early & often.
Mo Watson, Cole Huff, Geoffrey Groselle, & James Milliken are all solid double digit scorers for the Jays. Several role players add to Creighton's depth in Khyri Thomas, Toby Hegner & Zach Hanson. All hands on deck for the Blue Jays to get to NYC.
BYU thrives on three go to guys on offense. The outside shooting of Chase Fischer is a must for the Cougs to hit their offensive stride. PG and Freshman Nick Emery is as solid a duel threat point guard as we've seen emerge on the west coast this season as he can put it on the floor and get to the rack as well as knock down the long range jumpers. Then there is Kyle Collinsworth, the NCAA all-time leader in College Basketball in the triple-double category. Collinsworth can drive it, shoot it consistently from 20 feet and in and also dish the rock with the best of them. Creighton will do what they can to slow down Fischer from deep and take away the wide open looks from deep that make the Cougs offense so lethal. Should be a good one if the Jays can take away one of the big three of the Cougars. If they cannot defuse one of the Big three, they could get blown off the court like they did in games against Villanova.
UPDATE-
KYLE COLLINSWORTH is pretty sick but my sources in Provo tell me he will try and give it a go but will be nowhere near 100%. I have been burned by Jordan & Mullin in years past when they were extremely sick and both played one of the best games of their careers so there are no guarantees and many teams also play well that initial game without a star as the opponent has no film of them without him and has prepared the last few days to stop BYU with Collinsworth in the lineup.
Bruce Marshall
Creighton / BYU Under 166
High "total" tonight in Provo but have to wonder if it might be just a bit too high for the NIT quarterfinal. Creighton is comfy playing uptempo but not sure the Bluejays are simply going to want to run with the Cougars. To better utilize its quickness edge, and take advantage of BYU in halfcourt sets, Creighton might decide to slow the pace just enough to keep this game in the high 70s or low 80s and make the "under" worth a look.
Andy Iskoe
Brooklyn +6
This is a good spot to fade Charlotte following their win over powerful San Antonio at home last night in which the Hornets trailed 28-7 after the first quarter. They ultimately won 91-88 in what was an emotionally draining effort. Brooklyn is rested after having last played on Saturday. The Nets expect to have Brooke Lopez back tonight after missing Saturday's 115-103 road loss at Detroit. These teams have met twice previously this season with Charlotte winning both games -- by 5 at home in mid November and by 8 at Brooklyn in February. The Nets are playing with no pressure as they have long been out of the Playoff picture. Charlotte is ripe for a letdown following the big win over the Spurs and the manner in which it was achieved. There's sufficient room in this line for the Hornets to win while failing to cover.
Sleepyj
St. Mary's +5
I really like Valpo and I thought they deserved to be in the big dance....They are a very solid team this year...I can also make a solid argument for St. Mary's....Had they not lost to Gonzaga in the final, they might be sitting in the sweet 16 as well...Well all that's out the window and we get this game here tonight.....I made this line -3 for Valpo...This line sitting at -5 looks juicy to me here...I still think both teams are rather salty they got left out of the big dance after they lost the conf title games..Still the Gaels are a quality club and going on the road will be a tough challenge..If they bring a solid game +5 is just enough for me to bite here..I think they bring a good enough game in this one..
Harry Bondi
BYU -4.5 over Creighton
Their are 2 main reasons BYU will win and cover this game. First, the Cougars play fast and if Creighton can't slow them down or worse, tries to play BYU's style of offense, they will get blownout. Second, the Bluejays can't match the Cougars on the boards. BYU was the 6th best rebounding team in the nation while Creighton was #83. And that more than anything is why the Cougars cover tonight. Bluejays may be able to slow down BYU's run and gun ways but there is noway the can match the Cougars on the boards. Cougars head to Manhattan take BYU!
Scott Delaney
Do not count out this angry Saint Mary's team. The Gaels are still steamed about blowing their chances in the West Coast Conference championship, but it's becoming quite clear that Gonzaga is that good, after seeing how well it played in the first weekend of the dance. Saint Mary's now wants to prove itself - again - in the NIT tournament.
Tonight will be a major test, as top-seeded Valparaiso hosts Saint Mary's in a battle of mid-major regular-season champions. The Crusaders fell in the Horizon League semifinals, to Green Bay, and I just think they have more weaknesses than Saint Mary's, a team well-coached and that is fully capable of stealing this one on the road.
The one thing that stood out to me with this St. Mary's team, as I watched it two weeks ago here in Las Vegas, was how patient the team is, and how it makes it very efficient. That's probably why it leads the country in shooting percentage (50.9) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.75). This team also has the nation's third-longest possession average, allowing just 60.9 points, which ranks fifth in the country.
Expect coach Randy Bennett to be the better skipper in this one, as he will outsmart Valparaiso coach Bryce Drew.
Take the road pup in this one.
3* SAINT MARYS
Brad Wilton
Tuesday comp play is the Over in the quarterfinal meeting between Creighton and BYU.
The Blue Jays average a plump 79.6 points per game, while the Cougars go a little higher at 83.5 points per contest.
9 of Creighton's last 12 non-conference contests have landed Over the total. and the Jays have played 3 of their last 4 road/neutral site contests Over the posted price.
BYU comes into this home meeting with 2 of their last 3 games having played Over the posted total. The Cougars did not land Over in their last game against Virginia Tech, but they did net 80 points in the win.
Let's look for this game to be played at a brisk pace, and for the points to flow.
Over we go in tonight's Creighton-BYU game.
1* CREIGHTON-BYU OVER
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 31-20 run with complimentary plays: Houston at OKLAHOMA CITY (-9')
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets are both making late-season races toward the finish line, with hopes of bettering their playoff positions, while securing some momentum in what is sure to be a highly contested postseason in the Western Conference. Unfortunately for the Rockets, they'll be facing a stiff challenge in Oklahoma City, with their star's status uncertain for tonight.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The Thunder have seemed to put some problems aside, ones that had them mired in a 4-8 slide, as they've won their last four to solidify their hold on the Western Conference's third seed. Kevin Durant was brilliant on Saturday, with 33 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists in a 115-111 win at Indiana. Durant ranks third in the league with 28.0 points per game, and has emerged at the right time for the Thunder, averaging 29.5 points, 10.0 rebounds and 6.6 assists during his last 13 games. Even further, the All-Star forward has performed well against Houston, averaging 32.1 points while hitting 23 for 47 from 3-point range in his last seven meetings.
BOTTOM LINE is - To counter that, the Rockets would love to have a healthy James Harden, who may miss his first game due to injury in two seasons. Harden, ranked second in the NBA with 28.6 points per game, twisted his ankle Saturday when he stepped on a teammate's foot in the third quarter of a 109-97 loss at Atlanta. He wasn't able to practice Monday and is questionable for tonight.
2* THUNDER
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Los Angeles Lakers, plus the points against the Memphis Grizzlies, whether or not Kobe Bryant will play.
I know the Grizzlies have beaten the Lakers nine straight times and have had their way against Los Angeles' defense in three victories this season, but I'm no sure this is the right time for Memphis to visit.
While the Grizzlies have shot 54.4 percent against the Lakers this season - their best mark against anyone - they're also dealing with a depleted lineup. I know they've gotten healthier but they're still on a 2-4 slide.
The Grizzlies trailed by as many as 13 in last night's 103-97 victory over Phoenix, and I think they're coming in a bit tired for thsi game, and the Lakers will take advantage.
Memphis has also lost four of its last five in the second half of a back-to-back set, so I'm taking a shot here with the home pup.
2* LAKERS
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Under in Memphis at the L.A. Lakers.
Memphis just played an Under in their last game at Phoenix, as each of their last pair on the road, and 3 of their last 4 roadies have held Under the posted price.
The Lakers are wrapping up a 5 game home stand, and after an Over in the first of the five in a row at home, each of the Lakes last 3 games have held Under the posted price.
Los Angeles is now on a 6-1 Under clip their last 7 games, and an overall Under run of 8-2 their last 10 games played.
Series history shows 5 Unders in the last 6 meetings at the Staples Center.
Stick with trends just listed, and play the Grizzlies-Lakers to hold Under the total.
4* MEMPHIS-L.A. LAKERS UNDER
Dr. Bob
Opinion - Charlotte (-6) over BROOKLYN
Charlotte opened as a 7½ point favorite and the line has come down enough that there is value on the surging Hornets. I leaned against Charlotte last night because they had been playing defensive liability Troy Daniels off the bench in place of defensive ace Jeremy Lamb in the previous 4 games. Lamb was all of the sudden back in the rotation against the Spurs and Daniels didn’t see the court at all in Charlotte’s upset win over San Antonio. Lamb was +12 in plus-minus in last night’s game and he leads the Hornets at +6.2 points per 48 minutes for the season, so having Lamb back in the rotation instead of Daniels (-5.0 points per 48 minutes in plus-minus) is a significant plus for Charlotte. My ratings favor Charlotte by 8 points with current rotations for both teams (it’s the same with or without Marvin Williams for Charlotte; he’s listed as questionable and makes no difference as far as I’m concerned) and playing a 3rd game in 4 nights has not been an issue for the Hornets (5-1 ATS on the road in 3rd in 4 nights). It’s also not as tough facing Brooklyn when unrested as the Nets play at a slow pace. The Nets are just 5-12 ATS this season against unrested teams so the lack of rest isn’t too much of a factor in this game although I did include the normal adjustment in my ratings prediction. I’ll lean with Charlotte based on the line value.