Jack Brayman
The Washington Wizards are on a three-game win streak, and will be looking to keep things going tonight in Los Angeles, against the struggling Lakers. I'm a little hesitant to lay near double digits, cause I don't know if the Wizards rest players during garbage time, but I do think they'll dictate a fast-paced game.
Thus, my free play is on the Over in this game.
The Wizards, who have clinched a playoff berth, are in after a 127-115 victory at the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday. Washington is now 29-10 since Dec. 5, and come into this one riding a four-game win streak over the Lakers at Staples Center.
Los Angeles has lost seven of eight and 15 of 17, and its defense is horrendous, allowing an average of 112.1 points per game.
So why not take Washington? Again, garbage time is crucial to consider when the Wizards' four-game junket includes tomorrow's game against the Los Angeles Clippers, Friday's trip to high-altitude Salt Lake City, for a date with the Utah Jazz, and then Oaktown on Sunday to play the Golden State Warriors.
Let's play this one over and count on a high number.
1* Wizards/Lakers Over
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 71-50-2 run with free picks, including a 14-6 comp-pick streak with NBA freebies. I've also won three straight NHL plays: two freebies, with Saturday night's winner on the Washington Capitals on the puck line, and Sunday's free play on the Anaheim Ducks. Last night my premium play was on the St. Louis Blues on the puck line.
Tonight I go for No. 4 in a Row, as my free play is on the San Jose Sharks.
The San Jose Sharks have been struggling, and need a big statement win to get back on track with a little more than two weeks before the playoffs. Tonight could be that night, as the New York Rangers continue a west coast tour.
I gave you the Ducks the other night against the Rangers as a freebie, and now I'm taking the Sharks, as they should be able to take advantage of a tired New York team that just wants to get home.
San Jose has been outscored 23-7 over the past six games, but tonight it will take advantage of a team that is still trying to find chemistry now that goalie Henrik Lundqvist is back in the lineup.
The Rangers are playing their third game of a California road trip, after beating the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday and losing in Anaheim on Sunday.
This being their third road game in four days, I'll take the home team to get out of its funk.
5* SHARKS
Scott Rickenbach
Nuggets vs. Blazers
Play: Nuggets +2
The Nuggets and Trail Blazers are in a huge battle for the final playoff spot out west and this is a massive game as a result. With Denver off of an embarrassing home loss to New Orleans, I expect the Nuggets to respond here. Denver had been on a 7-1 ATS run prior to the ugly loss to the Pelicans. Also, the Nuggets are 13-5 ATS this season when they are off of a loss by a double digit margin. Portland is allowing 109 points per game on the season and Denver is on a 9-2 ATS run against teams that allow 106 points or more per game on the season. The Trail Blazers have won 3 straight games heading into this match-up but they are 1-5 (SU and ATS) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Nuggets won the most recent match-up between these teams and, prior to that, the road team had covered 4 straight in this match-up. In other words, it's looking up for the small road dog in this one!
Brandon Lee
CS Bakersfield vs. Georgia Tech
Play: CS Bakersfield +2½
The books are begging for you to take Georgia Tech at this line and the public is doing just that. I believe the real value here is with the Roadrunners, who won on the road in all 3 rounds to get here. Taking out the likes of Cal, Colorado St and UTSA. No disrespect to the Yellow Jackets, who have really had a remarkable season in the first year under head coach Josh Pastner. I just think they are going to be outmatched here by a very talented and experienced Bakersfield team. This is a good matchup for the Roadrunners against a defensive-minded Georgia Tech team, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field.
John Martin
Warriors vs. Rockets
Play: Under 234
One of the best-kept secrets in the NBA is how the Warriors have been an UNDER machine since losing Kevin Durant. The UNDER is 15-1 in their Warriors' last 16 games overall. Now we're seeing a massive total here of 234 points against the Houston Rockets. And get this, each of the last 11 meetings between the Warriors and Rockets have seen 233 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation. These teams will play just enough defense to keep the score UNDER the posted total of 234 today.
Andrew Gold
Wolves vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers -3½
The Timberwolves are now starting to tank as they have dropped 6 straight and 7 of 8. This game means a lot to the Pacers as they are in a 3 way tie in the Eastern Conference. The line is low here because of some injuries with Al Jefferson being out and Stuckey being questionable.
Dave Price
Charlotte Hornets -4.5
The Charlotte Hornets are fighting to stay alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They are 2 games back of the Miami Heat for the final playoff spot. The Milwaukee Bucks are safely in at this point and won't need this game as much as the Hornets. Charlotte has turned it on over late by going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall. The Hornets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Bucks with all 3 victories actually coming on the road, and the last 2 by double-digits. Milwaukee is 3-13 ATS against Southeast division opponents this season.
Teddy Davis
Heat vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons +3
The Pistons are in a downward fall right now, but if ever a time to respond it would be now. They are only 1.5 games behind the Heat for the 8th seed so tonight's game means a ton to them. The Pistons pounded them earlier this season @ home 104-87. While I know the Heat have a lot to play for also, I'm don't believe they deserve to be road favorites. A large part of the Pistons down fall is because they have been on the road. Tonight we see a big response
Jack Jones
Heat vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons +3
The Detroit Pistons are playing awful right now. They are just 1-7 in their last eight games overall. However, they are still just 1.5 games behind the Miami Heat for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
They will clearly be motivated here to pull within a half-game with a win. And because they have been playing poorly, they are undervalued now as 3-point home dogs. They shouldn't be dogs here considering they are 23-14 at home this season.
The Heat are starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the playoffs after making a huge run over the past couple months. They are just 1-3 in their last four games overall, which includes an 11-point home loss to the Blazers and a 17-point home loss to the Raptors. Their only win came against the lowly Phoenix Suns.
Bets against favorites (MIAMI) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1996. Detroit is 10-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Pistons are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Jimmy Boyd
Atlanta Hawks -8
I like Atlanta to win here by double-digits over the Suns. Booker's recent 70-point performance has drawn some attention to Phoenix, but don't let it fool you. The Suns are tanking to try an improve their lottery chances. Phoenix has lost 8 straight with each of the last 5 coming by double-digits. On op of that, this is the 6th and final stop of a 6-game road trip. The Suns are going to be more interested in returning back home than playing this game. Atlanta on the other hand is fighting for playoff position and know this is simply a game they can't afford to lose. I look for the Hawks to put this one out of reach early and cover this without much problem. Phoenix is just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and 2- ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Info Plays
Suns / Hawks Under 215
Here are some systems supporting our pick. Play the under when the total is greater than or equal to 200 when one of the teams is after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. This system is 53-19 (73.6%) over the last 5 seasons. Play the under when the total is greater than or equal to 200 when one of the teams is after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. This system is 90-47 (65.7%) over the last 5 seasons.
TJ Masterline
Milwaukee vs. Charlotte
Play: Charlotte -4
This is the seventh road game over the last nine contests for Milwaukee. The Bucks got blown out at home the last game by Chicago (109-94) as chalk and now head out on the road. They are 5-16 ATS against the NBA Southeast Division. Charlotte is on a 4-1 SU/ATS run and plays its third straight home game, as well as its fifth home game over the last six contests. Charlotte is ninth in the NBA in points allowed, #11 in field goal shooting defense, so the home team holds all the cards. Bucks are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Southeast. Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit +161 over CAROLINA
OT included. After picking up 17 out of a possible 20 points over their past 10 games, the Hurricanes suddenly got themselves back in the playoff picture. With back-to-back games both at home and both against Detroit, another couple of wins for the hottest team in the league looked incredibly attainable. In the first game of said set last night, Carolina trailed 2-1 and 3-2 before a late third period goal tied it to send the game into OT but it didn’t matter, as the ‘Canes left that invaluable point on the table in that “must win’ contest. Due to a postponed game earlier in the year, the Red Wings will play here again tonight and once again the Hurricanes are in a must win game. If the Hurricanes didn’t find the intensity, will or desire to win last night, what makes one think they’ll find it tonight? Any team can get hot for an extended period of time but a loss to Detroit last night tells us once again that the Hurricanes are not ready to prosper. A loss to Detroit last night reveals once again how Carolina cannot be trusted when expected to win. A team that was ready to take that next step to control its own destiny would have imposed their will last night, controlled the tempo and dictated the play. The Hurricanes did none of that.
Detroit is not going to the playoffs but Henrik Zetterberg played like it was the seventh game of a playoff series. His inspirational play in a game that meant nothing for his team shows why he’s been one of the best leaders in the NHL over the past decade. Detroit is playing the role of the spoiler to perfection. They are not getting pushed around at all and in fact, a close look reveals that the Red Wings have been in every game they have played for weeks with the exception of a couple of bad losses.
The argument for betting the Hurricanes here is that Detroit will be playing its third game in three days and that is true. However, the Wings didn’t have to travel after last night’s win and they’ll get a good night’s sleep without having to travel for this game. Surely, the Red Wings are aware of Carolina’s quest and a win here all but knocks the Hurricanes out. After this game, Detroit will continue the spoiler role with games against Tampa and Toronto before ending the season with four meaningless games against Ottawa, Ottawa again, Montreal and New Jersey. So, this is it for the Red Wings. They have three games left in succession against Carolina, Tampa and Toronto in which they will have a major impact on who gets in and who does not. Detroit appears to be heavily invested in having a say. They could have laid down last night but didn’t and we wouldn’t bet against them lying down in this one either. Jimmy Howard is playing top-notch goal while Cam Ward is a potential big time liability on any given day.
The three games in three days here is being overplayed in the market because it rarely happens but again, Detroit did not have to travel to get here, which makes a big difference. What we know for sure is that Carolina can absolutely win this game but we also know they did not impose its will last night and they are simply not reliable enough to be priced in this range against a team that is focused and playing well. Misery loves company and Detroit is doing everything it can to bring misery to the ‘Canes. Perhaps, more noteworthy is that the ‘Canes allowed them to last night. That says all we need to know in order to get behind a big underdog in this one.
Ottawa +112 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. Sandwiched between three losses to the Canadiens over the past eight days, Ottawa defeated both Pittsburgh and Boston. The Senators obviously wanted to win at least one of those games against Montreal but it just didn’t happen. We’re not going to concern ourselves with that, as this wager is based strictly on fading the Flyers and Ottawa is a very decent team too.
The Flyers are six points back of the Bruins for the final playoff spot with seven games remaining but the bigger issue is that they have to leapfrog over four other teams to catch Boston. Philadelphia will make the playoffs this year if they run the table and four other teams, Carolina, the Islanders, Tampa Bay and Boston, all collapse. According to sportsclubstats.com Philadelphia’s chances of making the playoffs this year is 0.2%. The Flyers are now set up to fail again.
Philadelphia is coming off a 6-2 victory over Pittsburgh. 11 days prior, Philadelphia defeated Pittsburgh again (4-0) only to lose 6-2 to the Devils the very next game. Several players cited Brandon Manning’s fight against Cameron Gaunce on Sunday as the inspiration that led to their victory. The Flyers were down by a goal at that point. “It was huge and it always helps when you win the fight, too,” said Travis Konecny. “A fight gets the team going, but when you end up on the right side of it, it always helps the momentum of the game. Kudos to him; he finds ways to get us going. He’s done it throughout the year.”
“I think a lot of us, if we had the heart of Brandon Manning, maybe we’d be in a little different situation,” Gostisbehere said. “I think it really pumped our team up.”
From our perspective, the only thing that is going to do is prompt Manning to fight some more. He’ll be looking for it tonight and it’ll likely hurt the Flyers more than help them, just like Manning’s play has done all season long. To point to this useless player as the inspiration for a win should be of more concern. Furthermore, the Flyers are coming home from a four game trip after that big win over Pittsburgh so let’s have a closer look at that.
Philadelphia opened the year with a trip to Los Angeles, Arizona and Chicago before losing to Anaheim when they returned home. The Flyers next road trip of four games or more occurred in December when they traveled to New Jersey, St. Louis, San Jose and Anaheim. The Flyers returned home to play the Rangers and lost 5-2. From January 8 to January 15, Philadelphia played at Columbus, Buffalo, Boston and Washington and returned home to lose 4-1 to the Devils. The Flyers three-game jaunt through Western Canada happened in February and upon returning, they lost 4-1 to the Capitals. Earlier this month, Philly played four games on the road in succession at Washington, Buffalo, Toronto and Boston and when they returned home, they lost 5-3 to the Jackets. The Flyers have only had five road trips this season of three or more games. In their first game back of said trips, they are 0-5 and this one comes after four on the road and after a big win over Pittsburgh. Nuff said.
Dallas +170 over MONTREAL
OT included. Let’s not get crazy here, alright. While Montreal is going to the playoffs as one of the top seeds in the East, they’ve been playing around .500 hockey since mid-November. In other words, Montreal absolutely deserves to be favored here but in no way do they deserve this billing. Over their last eight games, Montreal is 4-4 and three of those victories occurred against Ottawa. When the Habs hired Claude Julien they went on a bit of a tear but take away those six games and they have been an average hockey team for weeks. This is the Canadiens final game of the season against an opponent from the West, as they’ll close out the season with six games against Eastern conference foes. Montreal is not playing poorly but they are not dominating either and they have much bigger things to focus on than a late season game against a team going nowhere.
That team going nowhere is last year’s President Trophy winner. The Stars have grossly underachieved this season but that doesn’t mean they have thrown in the towel. Dallas has picked up points in four straight, which included two wins over San Jose and an OT loss to the Blackhawks. The Stars have allowed 26 shots on net or less in six of their past eight games and have really thrived in its last two games by outscoring the opposition 8-2 and holding both teams to 21 shots on net each. Dallas is a dangerous team with the most talent of any team not going to the playoffs. Yeah, they’ve had a rough year but they are being sold extremely short in games they have just as good a chance of winning as the favorite does. This is a really good team that is having a really bad year but we’re not going to hold that against them when the price is so juicy in a winnable game. Big overlay here.
EDMONTON -½ +136 over Los Angeles
Regulation only. Edmonton was L.A.’s whipping boys for years and it continued the first time they met this season way back in mid-November when the Kings defeated the Oil, 4-2. That victory made it six straight for the Kings over the Oilers at the time and it was also the Kings’ 11th win in the previous 12 games against Edmonton. However, things are a little bit different now in late March. For one, Edmonton has won the past two games against L.A. while outscoring them 5-1. Los Angeles is about to miss the playoffs for the second straight year. One could attribute last year’s failure to burnout for a team that underachieved. This year, however, the Kings’ came in hungry and we can now attribute their failures to weak goaltending and not enough talent. Yeah, the Kings work hard and hard work counts for something but there is a hungrier and vastly superior team waiting for them and in position for the proverbial passing of the torch.
It was June 19, 2006. Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Edmonton Oilers 3-1. The Oilers got so close to winning their sixth Stanley Cup in franchise history but fell two goals short but surely there would be more for Oilers fans to cheer about. Their team was set to be dominant for years to come, right? It didn’t work out that way. Playoff miss after playoff miss was the rule, as the Oilers plummeted to the bottom of the league.
Now, a little more than a decade and seven head coaches later, the Oilers have a chance to return to the playoffs for the first time since that Stanley Cup Final appearance. If they beat the Kings here, they will clinch a spot in the postseason and long-suffering fans can begin exorcising the memories of last-place finishes and first-round draft-pick busts. With only one win needed to sew up the spot and seven games left on the schedule, the Oilers are a shoo-in for the playoffs at this point but to finally get that clinching “x” next to the team’s name in the standings will be hugely motivating and to do it against a team that has been abusing them for years would be extra gratifying but it’s more than that. Connor McDavid gives the Oilers that “it” factor and it is in precisely these types of games in which the best of the best shine and display that refuse to lose attitude. The arena will be electric tonight and the Oilers will be jacked up and raring to go. The Oilers are hot and getting hotter. They have scored seven goals three times over their past seven games and have also won six of their past seven. Since coming back from its bye week on Feb. 11, the Oilers have 16 power play goals in 50 opportunities, a 32% rating, which ranks first in the NHL over that time.
L.A. does not want the Oilers to clinch on its watch but this market has been saying similar things about the Kings for two years now. In must win games, the Kings have rolled snake-eyes too many times over the past two years to trust them to prevent the Oilers from clinching. Los Angeles is now the weaker team in this matchup that this determined Oilers’ bunch should be able to impose their will against. The Oil will not be denied, at least not by this visitor.
Pass NCAAB
Power Sports
Miami vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
The Pistons have been in a terrible way recently (lost 4 straight!), but are by no means out of contention for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. In fact, a win tonight would put them just one-half game back of Miami, who happens to hold that coveted eighth spot. While the Pistons have been floundering, the Heat have gone an astounding 23-8 SU/24-7 ATS their L31 games overall. However, they've lost two straight and I'm not sure about them being road favorites in this situation. So my recommendation is to take the points.
Detroit has not just lost four in a row, but they also failed to cover all four games. All four losses took place on the road and were to sub-.500 foes. They were actually favored in all four games too. While their road record might stink (now 11-26 straight up), at home the Pistons have been a much better team. Their SU record is 23-14 here and they're outscoring visitors by nearly five points per game. Interestingly, Miami is still only 14-22 SU on the road. This will be just the sixth time - all season - that they have been favored away from home. So there's some definite value here in a matchup where I believe the home court advantage matters.
Just to illustrate how the market has changed here, these teams met twice in January, both games in Miami. The Pistons were favored both times. One of them they covered, the other they lost outright. Still, as hot as the Heat have been, I'm not sure we should be seeing such a dramatic change in the line. Especially w/ Miami being w/o Dion Waiters. Detroit is a much better team defensively at home and eventually their shooting has to be improve on the offensive end. I'll bank on tonight being the night!
Larry Ness
Minnesota vs. Indiana
Pick: Minnesota
The 37-36 Indiana Pacers are are in a three-way tie with Atlanta and Milwaukee for the East's No. 5 seed. It's really a 'horse race' in the East as only 2 1/2 games separate the No. 5 team and the No. 9 team (Chicago), plus Detroit is one game back of Bulls at No. 10 and the No. 11 Hornets are just a half-game back of the Pistons. The Pacers are 26-11 SU on their home court after a 107-94 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday but open a difficult stretch of four contests in six days.
Minnesota has lost six in a row to take away any realistic chance at grabbing the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. "We have to get back to playing defense,” Minnesota head coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters. “If we want to win, that’s what you have to do. There’s no easy way out, no shortcuts. It’s about discipline. It’s about doing your job so everyone counts on you.” Thibodeau is known for his defensive-oriented approach but the T-wolves have never really caught on, ranking 17th in points allowed at 105.8 PPG. In fact, during the team's six-game slide, they've allowed an average of 117.5 points.
The Pacers are hoping to advantage of this contest, one of four home games in the final nine of the regular season. Paul George (22.6-6.4) is averaging 28.3 points over the last three games but Indiana lost two of those during a see-saw month in which it has dropped seven of 13 contests overall and gone 1-6 on the road. PG Jeff Teague (15.3-7.8 APG) has lifted his level of play, averaging 20.8 points the last four contests and draining 12-of-21 from behind the arc in a five-game span.
The Pacers have dominated the all-time series with Minnesota (35-18), especially at home where they are 21-5. However, now that the T-wolves playoff hopes have been all but squashed (Minnesota ranks among the most disappointing teams of the season), I expect this talented team to play loose down the stretch and we know that the Pacers are not to be trusted.