Will Rogers
Denver vs. Portland
Pick: Denver
The set-up: Portland Trail Blazers have gone 11-3 record in March and have pulled into a tie with the Denver Nuggets (both teams are 35-38) for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Blazers welcome the Nuggets to Portland tonight, with the winner gaining a one game edge and both teams will then have eight games remaining in the regular season.
Denver: The Nuggets are coming off an 'ugly' 115-90 home loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday and this visit to Portland will open a five-game road trip (visits to Charlotte, Miami, New Orleans and Houston will follow). Denver head coach Michael Malone was highly agitated after the drubbing by the Pelicans and sharply criticized his club. "It was an awful effort but this is not who we've been, which gives me hope that we can turn the page and get back to being who we've been lately," Malone told reporters. "We've been a very good team lately, one of the best teams in the NBA. But (Sunday), obviously, for whatever reason, we just did not have that competitive fight, the energy, the sense of urgency that you really need to have right now." The rest of the Nuggets' road trip includes stops in
Portland: Guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have fueled the team's recent 11-3 surge. Lillard did see his streak of eight straight 25-point performances end with 22 points against the Lakers (Portland won 97-81) but he's averaging 26.8-4.9-5.8 on the season, including 36.3 points against the Nuggets this season. "McCollum is averaging 23.1 PPG on the season, making them the highest-scoring guard duo in the league.
The pick: It would be ironic if Portland earns the No. 8 seed over Denver, as the difference just could be the teams' trade deadline deal. Jusuf Nurkic was traded to the Blazers from Denver on Feb. 13 for center Mason Plumlee and a first-round draft choice. Since Nurkic joined the Blazers, they are 12-6 and he is averaging 14.0 points and 10.1 rebounds over that stretch! The Nuggets may have gotten the worst of that deal but note that the Blazers are a sub--.500 team at home ATS (16-18), while the Nuggets are 19-15 ATS on the road. I want any points available.
Mike Rose
Central Florida +2.5
UCF just might own the most impressive win of the NIT after going into Normal and taking down an Illinois State team that had been undefeated in front of the hometown faithful heading into that game. The Knights battled back from a 13 point halftime deficit to shock the Redbirds in the game’s closing stages. That win was then followed up with a commanding win against a surging Illinois team that trounced both Valpo and Boise State in its two previous NIT tilts.
This one all comes down to matchups for me, and I have a hard time seeing TCU running its offense successfully with Vladimir Brodziansky having all kinds of trouble getting his in the paint against Knights’ behemoth Tacko Fall who averages nearly 10 boards and 2.5 blocks per game. B.J. Taylor has been nothing if not consistently productive for a pedestrian UCF offense, but gets the benefit of leaning on one of the nastiest defenses in the country that allows just 61.0 PPG and limits opponents to just over 36% from the field (#1). The Horny Toads will have trouble scoring in transition against the unit, and once that occurs, they’ll have issues matching points. Look for UCF to advance, so take the points.
Harry Bondi
CENTRAL FLORIDA (+2.5) over TCU
Great match-up of Head Coaches trying to make their way back to major programs. Former Duke All American and Stanford Head Coach Johnny Dawkins leads the Knights of Central Florida who have won 9 of their last 10 games and have the nations 5th best defense allowing an average of just 61 points per game while holding opponents to a 39% shooting percentage. Jamie Dixon, formally of Pittsburgh, has done a nice job with the Horned Frogs of TCU who have played their best basketball at home but who are just 2-10 ATS their last 12 road games. In a match-up of dead even teams we will take the better defense. Take the Knights of Central Florida plus the points.