DAVE COKIN
UC IRVINE AT COLUMBIA
PLAY: COLUMBIA -1.5
If you’re into scheduling dynamics, this is one of the better spots you’re likely to find at any point in the college basketball season.
Irvine is playing its fourth straight road game, covering roughly 4800 miles of travel, in less than a one-week span. That’s not easy for a professional team, let alone a college squad that obviously isn’t used to enduring trips of this nature.
As for Columbia, they’re basking in the comfort of playing at home for the fourth straight game. Zero miles of travel, same bed every night, same routine every day.
Owning an advantage doesn’t automatically translate into a win, but it sure can’t hurt and the scheduling factors here clearly point to Columbia.
I also think it’s a decent style matchup for the Lions. Irvine is, as always, the much bigger team, and the Anteaters are really to tough to score against on the inside. But Columbia doesn’t play that type of game. Their offense is designed to generate open looks from beyond the arc, and Irvine can definitely be had by a team knocking down the three-ball.
I have to think all these home games is also a plus for Columbia in terms of their being able to knock down those treys. It has to be nice to have that comfort zone feeling of shooting at familiar targets.
I would put the magic number tonight at about ten. If Columbia generates 30 or more points on their threes, I like their chances. If they have an off night on those deep shots and don’t get to double figures on threes made, they’re likely in trouble. Under the conditions outlined here, I make the Lions a favorite to get to that goal. I’ll try Columbia as short home chalk tonight.
Sleepyj
UC Irvine / Columbia Under 139.5
I'm going under in this one...A few things I really like about this one here...First off both teams struggle from the free throw line..WE can make up points in that area...UCI is tough down low and that should limit the amount of baskets Columbia can get in the paint...That will open up Columbia from the outside, but UCI has a good defense....They defend the 3pt shot rather well and I feel Columbia will struggle to find it's niche early in this one....Also have to factor in these teams are playing for the championship here..So feeling each other out is definitely in the cards...This will slow the game down for sure to start this one out...I actually think both teams defend the other rather well...UIC is strong down low, but often times it takes time to get those guys involved..Columbia should play rough and tough down low early in this one...Both teams also take care of the ball rather well...This will limit fast break points also...Columbia cracks the top 50 with not turning the ball over....UCI ranks 282nd in turnovers forced...So we can expect them to really have limited success with big guys and lack of turning over Columbia...This will slow the game for sure...Another reason I like this under is blocked shots...These teams avg about 9 blocks per game..That alone can give us a break down low with points in the paint..Only take a few blocks and that swings in our direction a few points....Both teams also limit fouls...That's a good thing, but as I said above, these teams are not very good from the line the way it is...I like the fact that these teams keep the offense in front of them..This will again slow the game down.....His game should be razor close as well..This can will help with the possession for possession basketball flow...We might even see some of this throughout the entire first half...I see this one getting near 130, but 140 is a bit of a stretch IMO.
Scott Spreitzer
Thunder vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons +2½
The Thunder have kicked it into gear of late, winning eight straight games, including last night's 19 point win at Toronto. But while the Thunder have virtually nothing to gain or lose in the Western Conference playoff standings, the Pistons are playing to hold off Chicago and Washington for the final spot in the Eastern Conference, with a chance to catch the Pacers for the 7-seed. Detroit can't afford losses, but that's just what they did last time out. The Pistons lost by 17 to Atlanta, as a 1 1/2 point favorite. We should note that Detroit is 11-2 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. They're also 10-2 ATS if they're at home and in revenge of a double-digit loss. Detroit has won 12 of their last 18 outright, and just had a five game winning streak snapped last time out. But I expect the Pistons to land right back in the win column tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Bulls vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers -7
Edges - Pacers: 6-1 ATS in this series; and 11-2 ATS in division games this season. Bulls: 1-6 ATS away with no rest this season. With the Pacers out to avenge a 102-100 loss suffered at Chicago in late December, and 6-1-1 ATS with same season loss revenge against the Bulls, we recommend a 1* play on Indiana.
Brandon Shively
Houston at Cleveland
Play: Houston +1½
No Lebron James tonight for the Cavs and the line has been adjusted, but the Rockets are in position for a win tonight in my opinion based on the Cavaliers three games played this season without LeBron James as they are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS
Cleveland’s lone win without Lebron in the lineup this season came only by one point against Dallas. The Mavericks were in position to win the game or send it into overtime, but the refs missed a call and therefore they lost by a point.
This is a legit revenge game for Houston after Cleveland ran them out the gym in Houston a few months ago. Before that, Houston had won six straight against the Cavs. They beat them 105-93 last year in Cleveland and that was a game that LeBron did not play either. The Rockets were a 6 point road favorite in that game and even though that was last season, this is a big swing in the point spread for tonight’s game as we are seeing roughly a 7-8 point swing.
Motivation: The Rockets are clinging to the 8th seed in the West currently but nobody wants to play Golden State in the first round so they are looking to at least grab the No.7 or No.6 seed. I’ll put Cleveland on upset alert tonight and look for the Rockets to bring home the bacon for us. After Toronto lost last night, Cleveland has a 3 game lead in the Eastern Conference to claim the No.1 seed in the Playoffs. By resting Lebron, Head Coach Lue is basically saying they can afford to lose a game and I’m betting they do so.
Bob Harvey
Thunder vs. Pistons
Play: Thunder -140
The Oklahoma City Thunder look to extend the NBA's longest current winning streak when they visit the Detroit Pistons. The Thunder rolled to a 119-100 road win over the Toronto Raptors on Monday and have an average winning margin of 17.1 points during their eight-game winning streak.
Fueled by the play or Russell Westbrook, the Thunder (51-22, 32-40 ATS) are red hot. Westbrook has been sensational in March and posted his seventh triple-double of the month with 26 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds in Monday's victory in Toronto. Westbrook's triple-double count is the most in a single month since former Chicago Bulls star Michael Jordan had seven in April, 1989 and his 16 triple-doubles this season is the most by an NBA player since former Laker Magic Johnson had 17 during the 1988-89 campaign. Kevin Durant is on a superb run of his own as he scored 34 points against the Raptors for his 59th consecutive game of 20 or more points, the best streak since Kobe Bryant had a 63-game streak during the 2005-06 season.
The Pistons (39-35, 37-35 ATS) are 5-2 on their current nine-game homestand - with both losses coming against the Atlanta Hawks. Detroit, which is trying to cement its hold on the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, begins play with a 2.5 game lead over the Wizards and Bulls with eight games to go.
The Thunder have won in each of their past five visits to Detroit but are just Thunder are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The UNDER is 9-4-1 in the past 14 meetings in Detroit.
John Ryan
Cal-Irvine vs. Columbia
Play: Columbia -1½
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Columbia will win this game by at least 6 points.
Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UC-Irvine is just 48-77 ATS (-36.7 Units) when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997; Columbia is a stout 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game since 1997; 45-23 ATS (+19.7 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game since 1997. Although these metrics are based on 20 years of results and different styles of teams they still are quite valid. Many games are determined by points scored, rebounding/assist/turnover edges etc. More, the Algorithm uses many more metrics and extends and projects them for the current game. In this case, the pace of play (scoring) and the rebounding totals will be major factors in contributing to a Columbia Championship. In addition, the matchups also favor Columbia as Irvine has struggled against solid shooting teams. Irvine is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus good shooting teams making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games of a season spanning the last 3 seasons.
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers -7
The Pacers have covered 5 straight at home vs the Bulls and 11 of 13 vs divisional opponents. The Bulls are fading fast and are off another tough home Loss to the Hawks last night. Chicago has failed to cover 9 of 11 as a road dog in this range. The Pacers apply to a Solid 80% database system that pertains to conference home favorites off a home win and cover vs a team that is off a home dog loss like the Bulls.
Ben Burns
Boston vs. New Jersey
Pick: Boston
Most teams in this league are better at home. Not these two though. The Bruins got back on track with a 3-1 win at Toronto on Saturday. They're now an impressive 24-14-3 on the road, compared to a poor 16-22-5 in games played at Boston. The Devils lost Sunday afternoon at Carolina. They're 19-20-3 on the road but just 17-20-5 at home. While the Bruins outscore teams by a 2.9 to 2.7 average score, the Devils get outscored by an average of 2.5 to 2.2. With the Bruins a perfect 5-0 the last five in this series and a dominating 17-3 the
Jesse Schule
Chicago vs. Indiana
Pick: Under
The Bulls are coming off a heartbreaking 102-100 home loss to Atlanta last night, which puts them 2.5 games back of the Pistons, who currently hold the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. They have nine games left two play, but six of those will be played on the road. Tonight's game at Indiana looks like a let down spot for the banged up Bulls, and the Pacers are one of the teams they are trying to catch. The Pacers have won three straight home games, limiting opponents to an average of just 86 points in those victories.
These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games, as five of the last six meetings have failed to reach the total. The one exception was a home win for the Bulls, winning by a score of 102-100 in overtime. They've failed to cover in five straight at Indianapolis, and all five of those games went under the total. The Bulls are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games, and they've failed to cover in four of their last five when playing in a back to back situation. The Pacers have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven home games, while the Bulls have gone under in seven of their last 10 road games.
Will Rogers
Houston vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
The Cleveland Cavaliers will host the Houston Rockets at Quicken Loans Arena tonight, but the Eastern Conference Player of the Week will be sitting out tonight's game to rest in preparation for the playoffs. The Rockets are coming in desperate for a win, as they are currently sitting in a tie with Dallas for the final playoff spot in the West. Even without James on the floor, I expect Houston to struggle here on the road, where they are just 16-22 this season.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - Houston has had plenty of success in this series in recent seasons, winning six of the last seven meetings. They haven't been a good bet at Cleveland though, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavs haven't had much trouble versus teams from the Western Conference, covering in nine of their last 13 versus the West.
2. Kyrie Irving - The last the Cavs rested LeBron was a home win over the Dallas Mavericks on March 16th. Irving carried the load in that game, scoring 33 points on 13-of-28 shooting. He's coming in with fresh legs after sitting out the last game versus the Knicks, and he scored 23 points on 9-of-17 shooting in a 91-77 win at Houston earlier this year.
3. X-Factor - Home court has been huge in this series, with the home team going 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
Larry Ness
Washington vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State
The Washington Wizards ended a five-year playoff drought by winning 44 and 46 games the last two seasons but currently, at 36-37, finds themselves in the midst of an Eastern Conference chase to get back to the playoffs. The Wizards and Bulls (also 36-37) are both 2 1/2 games back of the 39-35 Pistons, who currently own the East’s No. 8 seed. Washington opened a five-game road trip with Sunday's 101-88 win over the Los Angeles Lakers and will be seeking the team’s first four-game road winning streak of the season, tonight. However, there is a HUGE obstacle, namely the Golden St Warriors.
The 66-7 Warriors can match their single-season win record (set last year) and join Chicago as the only franchise to win at least 67 games in consecutive seasons with a win tonight. However, as all know, Chicago went a record-setting 72-10 in 1995-96 (were 65-8 through 73 games) and for the Warriors to NOT reach 73 wins this season, they'd have to lose at least THREE of their final nine. Note that Golden St has not lost three times in less than an 11-game span all season! The Warriors have long since passed Chicago's former record of 44 straight home wins, as Golden St is 35-0 at home this season and its home winning streak now stands at 53 in a row, after Sunday's 117-105 win over Philadelphia.
The Wizards own one of the league's best backcourt in Wall (20.2-4.9-10.2) and Beal (17.4) but NO team owns a backcourt better than the “Splash Brothers,” Curry (30.0-5.4-6.6) and Thompson (22.7). Golden St leads the NBA in scoring (115.1 PPG), while shooting 48.8 percent (2nd), including 41.6 percent on threes (1st). While the Warriors rank a modest 20th in points allowed (104.3 per), opposing teams need to work for those points, as Golden St’s defensive FG percentage of 43.5% ranks 3rd-best, while its three-point percentage ranks 4th-best (33.3%).
OK, Golden State has covered just ONE of its last five games, but the Wizards are winless against the Warriors since the start of last season, going 0-3 with an average losing margin of 17.0 PPG. That includes a 134-121 loss in Washington back on Feb 3, behind Curry's 51 points, which included him connecting on 11 of 15 threes. Draymon Green (13.8-9.6-7.4) posted a triple-double in that one as well (12-10-12), helping to overcome 41 points from John Wall. The Warriors are ‘feeling’ a 73-win season and I’m laying the points.
Teddy Davis
Houston at Cleveland
Play: Houston +2
Coach Lue has made it clear that he will be resting his guys going forward as long as it's clear they get the #1 seed. With the Raptors losing last night LeBron will be sitting this one out. I simply don't trust this Cavs team without LeBron period. The Rockets will be playing their hearts out as they are fighting for a playoff spot in the West. Cavs are 0-5 ATS L5 games following a SU win. Cavs 1-4 ATS L5 home games vs team with a losing record.
Jimmy Boyd
Nets +6½
I backed Brooklyn last night in a heartbreaking loss, as they fell to Miami by 11 as a 10-point dog. I'm back on the bandwagon again tonight, as the Nets are once again showing great value here against the spread. Orlando is simply getting way too much respect coming off a 111-89 home win over Chicago and the news that Victor Oladipo is set to return and potentially Nikola Vucevic as well.
What people are overlooking is that this game means little to the Magic, as there's not a lot to get excited about when playing Brooklyn. You also have to take into consideration that Orland had lost 6 straight and 10 of 12 overall prior that big win over the Bulls.
Brooklyn has continued to show a lot of fight down the stretch and are really clicking on the offensive side of the ball. The Nets shot an impressive 53.2% in Miami last night and have now eclipsed 50% from the field in 5 of their last 8 games. What did them in was 20 turnovers, something that can easily be fixed. Orlando is allowing 105.4 ppg over their last 5, with opposing teams shooting 47% from the field.
The Nets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games off a road loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU defeat by more than 10 points. Orlando on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win.
Nelly
Golden State Warriors - over Washington Wizards
Washington is currently the first team out of the Eastern Conference playoff field at 36-37 with the Wizards certainly among the biggest disappointments in the league this season. Washington is 2.5 games behind Detroit for the #8 spot with nine games to play. Washington lost home games to Atlanta and Minnesota last week before beating the Lakers on Sunday on the road and games with the Kings and Suns to close the week offer more promise than this difficult matchup in Oakland. Washington lost by 13 hosting the Warriors in February and the last trip to Oakland just over a year ago featured a 31-point defeat for a much stronger Wizards team than this year's version. Golden State has failed to cover in four of the last five games but they have faced inflated prices and this line looks reasonable as the Warriors were a 10-point favorite in D.C. less than two months ago. At 66-7 with nine games to go there is not much margin of error remaining for a Warriors team that sounds motivated to set the record to best a Bulls team that went 72-10 in the 1995-96 season. Golden State still has to play the Spurs twice and this looks like a spot on the schedule where the team will be sharp. Tomorrow's game at Utah may be the more dangerous spot for Golden State who is 11-5 ATS when favored by 10-14 points. Washington is just 17-24 ATS vs. winning teams this season and while it is not too late for the Wizards to make a late push, conserving for the winnable opportunities ahead makes more sense.