Alex Smith
Boston at New Jersey
Play: Under 5
The Boston Bruins are looking to solidify a playoff spot with only two weeks left in the regular season. They snapped a season-worst five-game losing streak with a 3-1 victory over Toronto on Saturday night. Goaltender Tuukka Rask was solid in net with 25 saves and the Bruins’ power play unit picked up two goals -- their first multi-goal game with the man-advantage since February 20th. New Jersey heads into this contest still mathematically alive in the playoff race but a loss here would officially dash those hopes. The Devils are essentially just playing out the string and giving some of their younger players some ice time, most notably goalie Scott Wedgewood, who has started the last four contests. Starter Cory Schneider remains out with an undisclosed injury and will most likely be shut down for the year with just six games remaining. The 23-year-old Wedgewood has looked good with a 2-1-1 record and has allowed 1 goal or fewer in his first three starts. His strong finish to the season could solidify him as the backup for next season, making current backup Keith Kincaid expendable. This game is more important for the Bruins, who are trailing Tampa Bay by three points for the all-important second place spot in the Atlantic Division, which determines home ice for the first round. I think we see a tight game here from both clubs with the Bruins looking to not make any fatal mistakes against a defense-oriented squad like New Jersey. Play it under.
Wunderdog
Washington @ Golden State
Pick: Washington +13
The betting lines continue to be huge with Golden State. They appear to be in cruise control down the stretch, only covering one of the last five contests. They failed to cover against the hapless 76ers, allowing the NBA's worst team to shoot 46.7 percent while committing 18 turnovers. That followed an eight-point win against Dallas as -16.5 chalk. This is a tough situational spot, too, as Golden State has to head out on the road and play tomorrow at Utah. Into town comes a Washington squad that has won six of eight as they fight for a playoff berth. The Wizards are desperate for wins as they cling to hope of catching the Detroit Pistons for the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. Washington earned a 101-88 win over the Lakers on Sunday to draw within 2.5 games of the Pistons. All-Star point guard John Wall had 22 points and 13 assists for his ninth straight double-double. Wizards Center Marcin Gortat posted a double-double in five of the last six games and is shooting 66.7 percent from the field in that span. The Wizards are also 8-3 ATS when playing on one day of rest, so grab the motivated big dog and take Washington.
Jimmy Boyd
Thunder at Pistons
Play: Pistons +3.5
I was on the wrong end of Oklahoma City's 119-100 win at Toronto last night as a 3-point favorite, but that's not stopping me from going against the Thunder again tonight. The fact that Oklahoma City is almost an identical favorite at Detroit, who isn't considered to be as good as the Raptors is a good sign the books believe Detroit is the sharp play in this one. This is a bit of a letdown spot for OKC, as they really came out with a lot of energy against Toronto and have a huge home game on deck against the Clippers Thursday, which will be nationally televised on TNT. You also have to keep in mind that the Thunder were out for revenge last night against the Raptors, who had beat them on their home floor earlier this season. I just don't see Oklahoma City coming out with that same energy in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road against a Detroit team they beat by 16 in the previous matchup. The Pistons on the other hand are going to come out extremely motivated following an embarrassing 95-112 home loss to the Hawks. Detroit is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off an upset loss as a favorite and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Thunder on the other hand are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after playing a game as a road favorite and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points. Take the points!
Bruce Marshall
UC Irvine +1
After hosting an NJIT team with no starter taller than 6-6, Columbia has to now deal with an Anteater team that could more aptly be called the Giraffes, with a 7-6 C (Mamadou Ndiaye) and 6-10 F (Mike Best) in HC Russell Turner's lineup, along with a 7-2 C (Ioannis Dimakopoulos) and another 6-10 F (Jonathan Galloway) among the first options off the UCI bench. All that size unnerved semifinal foe Coastal Carolina, panicked into just 27% FG shooting while seeing five of its shots blocked (and several others altered) in a bludgeoning 66-47 romp by Eaters on Sunday. That loss coming after UCI blocked 8 shots on the road in a quarterfinal win at UL-Lafayette against what was considered the best big man in this tourney, 6-11 Ragin' Cajun star Shawn Long. The various UCI bigs contribute to suffocating 38.3% FG-percentage defense, which ranks fourth in the country.
The Anteaters thus loom as a very awkward challenge for a Lion side that certainly did not see a collection of bigs such as UCI's in this year's Ivy League. The Eaters also have decent size on the perimeter with savvy veteran Gs Luke Nelson and Alex Young, who are not going to give big Lion G Maodo Lo and Grant Mullins a lot of clear looks. And those defenders can afford to "cheat" on the Columbia gunners and overplay them because of all the tall trees behind them in the paint that are likely to also envelope the Lions' 6-7 F Alex Rosenberg, who likes to float to the perimeter anyway, but will have no choice vs. the UCI size.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +230 over FLORIDA
OT included. Florida returns home from a brief and easy traveling three-game trip through New York, Boston and Tampa Bay. The Panthers won two of those three games with only loss occurring in New York. Florida’s win over the Bolts on Saturday lifted them into a tie with Tampa for first overall in the Atlantic but Florida has a game in hand. Still, Florida has allowed 35 shots on net in two straight games. They have not held a team to under 30 shots in five straight games and that means they are playing with fire. The Panthers have played the Maple Leafs twice this year and they’re 2-0 in those games while outscoring Toronto, 9-2. After a big win over Tampa and returning home from that aforementioned trip, the Panthers just might be feeling a bit complacent here. Even if they’re not, this line is still way too high for a team that does not dominate games.
Our record in the NHL this year is not good. We are not going to make excuses because it is what it is but we’ll reiterate that goaltending, good or poor on a nightly basis, is the biggest factor in deciding the outcome of games. We mention this because the final scores are so misleading that it continues to provide us with great value almost nightly. It hasn’t worked out this year but we’ll stick to it and it will eventually come around. Perhaps not this year but it will come around eventually. If you didn’t watch the Maple Leafs last night against Tampa, you surely saw the final score and figured that the Leafs were predictably beaten as a huge underdog in Tampa Bay. What that final score doesn’t tell you is that Toronto was all over the Bolts from start to finish, outshooting them, 34-18 and spending most of the game in Tampa’s end. The Maple Leafs ran into a hot Ben Bishop and that’s the only story of that game. What we know for sure is that the Maple Leafs are not an easy out, despite having the NHL’s worst record (because of goaltending). What we also know for sure is that Jonathan Bernier is playing much better lately and if he has a decent game here, Toronto has a great chance to win. At the end of the day, we have no idea whether Roberto Luongo will be better than Bernier here or vice versa but that matters not because Florida is simply not good enough to be priced in this range.
MONTREAL +120 over Detroit
OT included. The Montreal Canadiens have no appeal whatsoever while the Red Wings are fighting like a pack of wolves to get into the playoffs. Montreal started the season 18-4-3 so it’s actually remarkable that they were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday night. The Canadiens season of disappointment is unofficially, officially over. The only thing left for the Habs to do is to is play out the string. Furthermore, the Habs went into Detroit last week and were down 4-0 before scoring some late goals to make it closer than it should have been. Montreal was outshot 40-29 at the Joe.
Meanwhile, Detroit won last night against Buffalo. The Red Wings have won four of their past six games and now every game from here on in is life or death. Detroit is loaded with brand name players and a pedigree that dates back 24 years, which was the last time the Red Wings missed the playoffs. The Red Wings look like the steal of the night at -135 to -145 depending on where you do your shopping but it just doesn’t work that way.
If the Sharks are -180 in Vancouver and Boston is -150 in New Jersey, why o’ why are the Red Wings just -135 (at Pinnacle) in Montreal? No team in the league has less appeal or points over the past 2½ months than the Habs. Montreal loses almost every night. They have allowed four goals or more in six of its past eight games but the oddsmakers are ignoring it all. Montreal now switches to the fun role of the spoiler and ironically, the first game in that role sees them playing a team that is on the bubble. Playing relaxed and without pressure for the first time in months, Montreal figures to play one of their best games in weeks. The line says so and that’s good enough for us.
ST. LOUIS -1½ +125 over Colorado
OT included. The Avs managed to sneak in an unlikely victory in Nashville last night but in no way is that going to deter us from fading them again. Colorado scored three times on three ugly goals on their first nine shots on net before Pekka Rinne was yanked in favor of Carl Hutton. For the Avs, Jack Skille scored his first goal in 27 games, Andrew Agozzino recorded his first point of the year, Cody McLeod recorded his first point in his last 11 games and Shawn Matthias netted one too. Matthias has averaged seven goals a year in his nine years in this league. The point is that the Avalanche got three very fortunate goals last night and they’re ill-equipped to compete with just one threatening line, especially against a Blues squad that has great goaltending and plays outstanding defense. Furthermore, the Avs continue to give up more scoring chances and shots on goal than any team in the NHL, meaning they are just so ripe to get beat.
St. Louis has a streak on the line here that will keep them motivated because it’s a streak they take great pride in and it’s also one that comes along once in a lifetime, if that. The Blues have recorded four straight shutouts and nothing more needs to be said about that. That spectacular shutout streak is part of a 10-2-0 stretch that has the surging Blues tied with Dallas for first place in the Central Division so the Blues have plenty left to play for. Aside from that, St. Louis has scored four goals or more in seven of its last 10 games so this is a team that is firing away on all cylinders. When a team is playing this well, they cannot wait to get back on the ice. The Blue Notes are rested (they’re 12-3 on two days rest) they’re peaking and they catch the Avalanche playing their third game in four days and tail-end of back-to-backs.
Big Al
Boston vs. New Jersey
Pick: New Jersey
The Bruins have had issues when playing at home all season, and right now the Boys from Beantown are poised to be the playoff team with worst home record in the entire league. But more recently, the Bruins have also had their problems on the road, having lost four of their last five away from TD Garden. And that lone road victory was against the lowly Maple Leafs in Toronto, 3-1 last Saturday. They will try their luck in the Meadowlands tonight against the Devils and rookie goaltender Scott Wedgewood. Wedgewood - who has stepped into the #1 netminder position with the injury to Cory Schneider - lost his first NHL game in his last start against the Hurricanes on Sunday, but the 23-year-old showed great poise by keeping his cool despite falling behind early 2-0 and he only allowed one goal after that (in the last 50 minutes). The Bruins have been having problems putting consecutive victories together as they are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win. Take the underdog Devils at home.
Power Sports
Charlotte vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
Endorsing the Sixers on any kind of regular basis won't get you anywhere, but they have covered three straight and this is a pretty hefty price range at home vs. Charlotte. Incredibly, Philly is 0-10 ATS this season as a home dog of 9.5 to 12 points, but that changes here with the Hornets laying near unprecedented weight.
Charlotte has been pretty incredible at home this season (27-11 straight up). But they are just 15-20 SU on the road. The most points they've been asked to lay in any road game this season came at, you guessed it, here in Philly. They were 9.5-point chalk in a 119-99 win earlier this month, their second double digit win over the Sixers this year. They did just cover in Milwaukee their last game, but the Hornets failed to cover the first two games of this trip and were dominated in one of those (at Detroit).
Philly comes off a four-game road trip of their own where they were generally competitive. They lost to Denver and Portland by a combined four points and then rather easily covered a monster 22-point spread at Golden State Sunday. However, the fact remains they've won just once since the All-Star Break and lost their last nine. The SU losing streak likely continues after tonight, but the points are too plentiful to pass up in what looks like a classic overlay.
Ray Monohan
Charlotte vs Philadelphia
Play: Charlotte -11.5
The Hornets get the benefit of playing a home and home with the Philadelphia 76ers and even laying this large number on the road is still valuable.
The 76ers have been horrible all year. Losers of 9 in a row, this team is mentally and physically not there. They have struggled in almost every aspect of the game and continue to get blown out on a regular occasion.
As for the Hornets, they are in scrap for the 3rd seed in the East and with just 1.5 games separating 4 teams, two games against the 76ers is a blessing. Charlotte has won both meetings this year by 22.5 points.
Some trends to consider. Hornets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win
of more than 10 points. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Look for Charlotte to really lay the hammer down here, and roll over
the 76ers on Tuesday night.
Brandon Lee
Rockets +2
With LeBron James sitting out this game to get some extra rest before the playoffs, I think we are seeing some big time value here with Houston as a dog. Cleveland is comfortably in the top spot in the east and by sitting James are essentially saying this game doesn't matter to them. When James hasn't played the Cavaliers have struggled. They are just 1-2 SU without him on the floor this season and 4-12 over the last 2 seasons. Houston has been inconsistent this year and underachieved, but we can expect a max effort from the Rockets in this one. Houston is currently tied with Dallas for the 8th and final playoff spot and are also just 1.5-games back of 6th place Portland.
Jack Jones
San Diego State -3.5
The San Diego State Aztecs are the best team left in the NIT. They certainly deserved to play in the NCAA Tournament, but they are making the most of this NIT experience by cruising into Madison Square Garden playing better than anyone.
It has been three straight blowouts for the Aztecs to get to this point. They beat IUPU-Fort Wayne by 24, Washington by 15, and Georgia Tech by 16. I would argue that Georgia Tech was the second-best team left in the tournament with the way they were playing heading into that 16-point loss.
George Washington is easily the worst of the four teams left in the NIT. It has squeaked by with a couple of narrow home wins over Hofstra (by 2) and Florida (by 5) by a combined 7 points. The Colonials will meet their match tonight in the Aztecs, who hold opponents to 60.5 points per game and 37.1% shooting on the season.
San Diego State is 10-3 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season. George Washington is 1-9 ATS versus very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Colonials are 0-7 ATS versus good defensive teams who allow 64 or fewer points per game after 15-plus games over the last two years.
Dave Price
BYU +2
The wrong team is favored in this NIT Final Four showdown between BYU and Valparaiso. I like the Cougars to get the job done and advance to the Championship Game despite being 2-point dogs to the Crusaders here. It's been a tough path for the Cougars to get here as they've had to beat UAB, VA Tech and Creighton. I believe Valpo's path was easier with Texas Southern, FSU and St. Mary's. That has been a theme for the season too as the Cougars have played a much tougher schedule than the Crusaders all year. BYU is 10-2 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 12-5 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game this season. They are simply the deeper, more talented team in this one, and that will show at Madison Square Garden tonight.
Mark Franco
San Diego State – 3.5
After opening the NIT with three impressive home wins, No. 2 seed San Diego State heads across the country Tuesday to face fourth-seeded George Washington in the semifinals at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Aztecs rolled past IPFW, Washington and Georgia Tech by a combined 55 points and will need another balanced effort to get past the Colonials, who averaged 83.7 points in wins over Hofstra, Monmouth and Florida.
The key matchup Tuesday will be in the frontcourt, where the Colonials’ tandem of Tyler Cavanaugh and Kevin Larsen needs another productive outing against the Aztecs’ athletic trio of Shepard, Skylar Spencer and Malik Pope.The Aztecs hold opponents to a 60.5 scoring average. The Aztecs are 26-1 when scoring at least 67 points.
Colonials are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Scott Rickenbach
BYU +2½
Waiting on this one paid off as it has moved up to a 2.5 as of late morning Tuesday and it's now "go time" with the Cougars. BYU is 8-4 ATS in non-conference games this season and also 8-3 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. In NIT action, Brigham Young has a long-term mark of 9-4 SU (and also has just 4 ATS losses in that span as well). In comparing these two teams the Cougars certainly have the much more explosive offense. Even though the Crusaders have better defensive numbers, Valparaiso has not played nearly the schedule that BYU did this season. That said, I feel strongly that value lies with the underdog in this match-up. Note also that Valparaiso is 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Crusaders are 3-6 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest. That ATS stat spans the last 3 seasons. The Cougars have shot at least 38% from three point land in each of their last five games and their hot outside shooting will be the difference maker in this match-up.
Harry Bondi
DETROIT +3.5 over Oklahoma City
Since the Pistons are the more rested team and have more motivation, we'll gladly jump on the home dog here tonight. OKC is rolling right now, winning eight in a row and has pretty much already wrapped up its playoff position. With a game on deck against the LA Clippers, we don't see the Thunder bringing a fully focused effort here tonight, especially when you consider they are playing on back-to-back nights and so far this season they are just 11-17 ATS in non-conference games. Meanwhile, the Pistons are in a battle for their playoff lives. They have been off since an upset loss to Atlanta on Saturday night and that puts them in a nice situation here tonight since they are 11-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite.
Joe Gavazzi
Cal-Irvine at Columbia (-1)
Must put aside my affection for this Columbia team, whom we used often with great profit in this year’s Ivy League season. Due to injuries last season, the Lions have, in effect, 6 returning starters on the court for HC Kyle Smith. Lo and Mullens are a premier Ivy backcourt, but they meet their match tonight in Irvine starters, Nelson and Young, an experienced duo who has started together for 3 seasons. If the Lions are to win this game, their bigs (Rosenberg, Petrasek and Meisner) will have to float to the perimeter, where Columbia connects on nearly 10 triples per game in their 26 attempts. Certainly, the smaller Lions, who took their lumps on the interior vs. Yale big men, Sears and Sherrod, will struggle on the defensive end. For, the Anteaters rotate 4 interior players ranging from the 6’10” Mike Best to the 7’6” Mamadou N’Diaye. While Columbia romped past smaller NJIT (80-65) on Sunday, Irvine was using their interior size (and the suspension of Coastal Carolina’s best boy, Wiggins, to dominate the Chants (66-47) in Conway. Anteaters have become road warriors in this event, winning three times at N. Dakota, LA Lafayette and CCU. Having traveled to numerous outposts in the West, it does not appear they will be overwhelmed by, tiny and largely uninhabited, Levien Gym on the upscale Columbia campus on the Upper West Side. Against arguably the best team Columbia has faced on this court all season, the Lions end their season at home 17-5 SU.
BYU vs. Valparaiso (-2)
In the NIT Semi-Final lid lifter, its offense vs. defense with the 94’ Cougars facing off against the Valpo defense that allows just 63 PPG on 38% shooting. With a +9.4 rebound margin, it could well be one and done for the up-tempo Cougars. Anyone who has watched BYU play in recent seasons must love their up-tempo game. They are one of the more improved teams from start to finish of this season, as they enter on a 12-3 SU run (12-1 SU excluding Gonzaga). With triple/double machine, Collinsworth, leading the way, the Cougars are explosive with veterans Fisher and Kaufusi. But, the real improvement comes with the maturation of 1st year players Emery, Davis and Seljaas. Valpo is the tortoise in the matchup. They are the more experienced team with all 5 starters back from a 28-6 SU team of last year. Their big man, Peters, is the best player on the floor, ably abetted by Carter, Hammink and Walker. Must note the strong tendencies of BYU 11th year HC Rose, whose teams are a perennial 60% plus ATS play as chalk, but continually falter in the underdog role, where they are just 26-47 ATS, including 3-8 ATS L2Y and stand just 23-40 ATS in competitively priced games, where the line is +3 to -3.
George Washington vs San Diego St. (-3)
The George Washington Colonials make the relatively short drive to New York City to face the San Diego St. Aztecs, who make the west to east journey for this NIT Semifinal matchup at Madison Square Garden. Tip time for the second half of the double header is at 9:30 ET as televised by ESPN. The game features A-10 member George Washington, who is 26-10 SU for the season vs San Diego St, who is 28-9 SU for the season. Though neither of these teams was good enough to qualify for the NCAA Tourney, they have taken advantage of this NIT event to further their progress this season and be one of 16 teams who are still playing this 2016 CBKB season.
George Washington was on the periphery of the bubble through the beginning of March, but a CCT loss to eventual A-10 Champion, St, Joes, ended their NCAA dreams. Yet, they have prospered in this event, beginning with a narrow (82-80) victory at home against Hofstra, followed by a solid road win at Monmouth, and a third victory again at home vs Florida. Concerns in today’s matchup against a quality San Diego St. team is that their only road win of note in the regular season was at VCU. In reality, this was a team that did not play to their potential. More was expected from the squad that added Wake transfer, Cavanaugh, to a front court that also featured Big Man Supreme, Kevin Larsen. Floor leader Joe McDonald returned to run the show with Dartmouth transfer, Alex Mitola, adding a three point threat. Then there was Glue Guy Patricio Garino, which figured to add cohesion that never evolved for 5th year HC Mike Lonergan. Hard to understand why this three star fundamental team that allows just 69 PPG could never accomplish more. Tonight they go up against an Aztec team, who has put it all together.
San Diego St. limped through the preseason with a record of 7-6 SU after a combined 58 wins the last two years and ascending to the 3rd Round of the NCAA last season. But under the tutelage of 17th year HC Fisher, the Aztecs have put it all together for this event. Before accepting this NIT bid, in the wake of a heartbreaking CCT Final loss to Fresno St., Fisher asked his troops what their level of commitment would be. To a man, they assured Fisher they were united in their goal to win the NIT title. With resounding home court victories by 24 over IPFW, by 15 over Washington, and 16 over Georgia Tech (combined coverage of 34 points), the Aztecs look like the team to beat in this event. If defense wins championships, they should be a lock. For along with a +5.6 rebound margin, San Diego St. allows just 60 PPG, 37% from the field, and 30% from the arc. That’s good enough for us to back them in this spot as the best remaining team in the Tourney.