DAVE COKIN
ATHLETICS AT RED SOX
PLAY: ATHLETICS +125
Sean Manaea gets the call tonight for the A’s as they seek to even their series at Fenway Park against Sean O’Sullivan and the Red Sox.
Manaea is an impressive rookie southpaw who has a chance to be a good one for the A’s. He’s certainly got the arsenal of pitches. Manaea’s issues right now are mostly avoiding problems repeating his delivery, which can lead to command issues. But Manaea is already displaying stuff that indicates he could be a future ace, and at the very least a solid #2 starting pitcher.
O’Sullivan is the other end of the pitching spectrum. He’s been wearing the Quad-A label for several years, and I’ll need some convincing before I can believe O’Sullivan has a place in a major league rotation. I won’t deny that O’Sullivan put together some nice early season outings at AAA Pawtucket, which included a K rate I haven’t seen from him in the past. So perhaps there’s something new in what O”Sullivan is offering that I’m not familiar with. But based on past performances, he is not a go-with big league starter.
The Red Sox are absolutely hammering opposing righties. But the Sox have been strangely feeble against the southpaws they’ve seen so far this season, and that definitely enters the mix here. I’m feeling confident about Oakland’s chances of plating some early scores against O’Sullivan. I also believe that if Manaea doesn’t beat himself with walks, he’s got a reasonable expectation of registering a quality start at Fenway tonight.
The A’s have lost three straight so it’s not the ideal scenario from a streak standpoint. But that’s offset by what I see as a starting pitcher edge and a pretty good price. The line is too high based on my work, and I’m going to go with the underdog Athletics to put this one in the win column.
Sleepyj
Oklahoma City +7
I'm grabbing the points here...OKC hs made it now after Game 1 that they can hang around in this series...They also won Game 2 on this floor so that is good for them mentally...Spurs have show over the last few games that shutting down both Westbrook and Durant at the same time is tough....My only worry for the Spurs is age..Can they keep up as the playoffs intensify...7 points seems like enough for me here to bite on OKC.
Rob Vinciletti
Royals vs. Yankees
Play: Under 7½
The Yankees have had trouble scoring and have played under in 11 of 15 vs right handers. KC has played under the total in 7 of 10 vs losing teams. This game fits a solid 88% totals system from the database that plays to the under for home favorites in this range off a home favored win scoring 5+ runs vs a team off a road dog loss that scored 4 or less. Tanaka has pitched under in 5 of 6 with a 2.29 era. Medlen for KC has gone under in all 3 road starts and has a 2,29 era away. KC has a solid 2.-2 road bullpen era. Look for this one to stay under tonight.
Marc Lawrence
New York at Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles +115
Edges: Dodgers: Alex Wood 7-3 last ten overall home team starts; and 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home this season. Mets: Jacob DeGrom 1-2 with 5.45 ERA career away team starts during May. With Wood in fine KW form with 21 Ks and 4 BBs his last three starts, look for L.A. to improve to 9-5 as a host in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on the Dodgers.
Art Aronson
Pirates vs. Reds
Play: Over 9
Pittsburgh hands the ball to Juan Nicasio (3-3, 3.16 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off eight hits while striking out three and walking three in a 6-2 loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. Nicasio has looked brilliant at times this year, but also very pedestrian and note that he’s already a brutal 0-2 with a ballooned 6.75 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Alfredo Simon (1-3, 9.86 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the season, giving up three runs off seven hits and a walk over 7.2 innings in his first win over the Brewers on Thursday. We’re not reading too much into the decent outing though, Simon has been atrocious so far this year, previous to that he hadn’t lasted longer than five innings (and note that he owns a 7.04 ERA at home to date). With each of these starting pitchers struggling, the OVER is indeed worth a second look in this matchup.
Jim Feist
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Play: Over 11
Coors Field is tough on pitchers. the Arizona offense is talented, though having a tough week. But facing Colorado lefty Chris Rusin will get them out of a slump, off a game where he allowed 13 hits, 7 runs and 2 walks in 4 innings....and Colorado still won the game by 10 runs, 17-7! Arizona is 21-9-2 over the total against a lefty starter. These teams rank in the Top 7 in baseball in runs scored, with Colorado third. Arizona goes with Rubby De La Rosa (3-4, 4.60 ERA), who has a 6.00 ERA on the road with a 1-3 record. The Over is 6-1 in the Rockies last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Matt Josephs
Phillies vs. Braves
Play: Braves -112
Adam Morgan gets the call for the Phillies and the lefty is looking to go a little deeper in ballgames then he has in his first two starts. Morgan has gone just nine innings allowing six runs and 11 hits to the Cardinals and Indians. He lost three starts against the Braves last year sporting a 4.00 ERA and a WHIP of 1.278 in those games. Atlanta's offense isn't very good, but they should be able to get some hits off Morgan. Matt Wisler is 1-2 with a 3.34 ERA and a WHIP of 0.928 in five outings. He has pitched well in two of his last three starts allowing zero earned runs. The Phillies are 18-14, but they are hitting just .228 as a team and .220 in their last seven contests. There aren't a lot of good numbers on either side, but I like Wisler a lot more then Morgan.
Brad Diamond
Royals vs. Yankees
Play: Royals +158
The Champs have come out of the box very slow 15-16 winning just 3-of-the-last-7 after failing versus home standing NY last night. The Yankees in last place via the American League East standings are awaiting the return of A-Rod to help solidify their stogy offense. They are on a 4-2 run of late, but in this situation we prefer the Royals who are looking to reverse their negative 15-46 run at Yankee Stadium. Granted Medlen is hitting the bump for KC, but the visitor does possess the value position here inside the number and rolling with a 4-1 record behind Medlen vs. losing entities. KC is off loss, but show 15-7 with that angle. Home standing Yankees 4-9 vs. RHP and 2-6 with Tanaka on grass.
Alex Smart
A's vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 9½
Sean Manaea the Athletics starting pitcher today, took a no-decision in his second big league start Wednesday, after giving up four runs on seven hits and a walk with six strikeouts in five innings against the Mariners. He’s allowed four runs in each of his two starts and could easily get lit up today in the unfriendly pitching confines of Fenway Park . Note:Oakland has lost seven of its last eight games while allowing a total of 25 runs in the last two tilts and an overall average of 7.1 rpg allowed in their last eight. Meanwhile, the Red Sox starting hurler O’Sullivan prepares to make his first start for the Red Sox today, as he takes the spot of demoted southpaw Henry Owens, who was sent to Triple-A Pawtucket after his last start. OSullivan a orthodox thrower has made 52 career starts, going a sub par 10-22 along with garnering a bloated 6.07 ERA and went 1-6 with a 6.08 ERA in 13 starts for the Philadelphia Phillies last season. Everything points to a fairly high scoring game that eclipses this number (total).
Over is 5-1 in Athletics last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 10-4-1 in Red Sox last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 7-1 in Red Sox last 8 vs. American League West. Over is 7-0-1 in home plate umpire Vanovers last 8 games behind home plate vs. Boston.
Larry Ness
Arizona at Colorado
Play: Colorado
Coors Field has been a haven for the Colorado Rockies in years past but tonight, they will look to avoid a SEVENTH consecutive loss in their home park. Colorado hit .292 with 16 HRs while averaging 6.7 runs in taking FIVE of the first six meetings with the D’backs, with all games being playing at Chase Field. Monday’s contest was the first time in 2016 the teams had met in Coors and it looked like more of the same when the Rockies built a three-run lead in the fourth inning. However, the D’backs, rallied for five in the fifth, two in the seventh and two in the ninth for a 10-5 win.
The victory marked Arizona’s FOURTH in a row overall, in which the D’backs have averaged 6.5 runs. Arizona looks to win a season high-tying fifth straight, as it faces the pitching-challenged Rockies. Colorado starters have posted a 9.69 ERA in the club's worst home skid since April 25-May 18, 2015. Chris Rusin (1-0, 4.43 ERA) will be making his third consecutive start after appearing out of the bullpen four times to begin the season. However, he was pounded in his last outing but escaped with a no-decision after surrendering SEVEN runs on 13 hits over just 4.1 innings at San Francisco on Thursday. Rubby De La Rosa (3-4, 4.60 ERA) had this start pushed back after Arizona recalled Archie Bradley to work the opener. De La Rosa had his three-start winning streak snapped Wednesday, as he allowed four ERs on eight hits in 5.2 innings at Miami. He is 3-1 with a 3.94 ERA in seven career games (including five starts /team is 3-2) against Colorado.
De La Rosa has struggled so far on the road (two starts / two relief appearances), going 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Rusin is coming off an awful outing but in four career starts vs the D’backs, the 29-year-old lefty is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA (team is 3-1). Yes, none of those starts came here at Coors but I think SIX straight home losses is enough for the Rockies. Take the home team.
Power Sports
Royals vs. Yankees
Pick: Yankees
After losing Sunday night, the Yanks bounced back to take the series opener from the Royals, 6-3, on Monday. It was the third win in the last four games for the team in Pinstripes after they'd dropped seven of eight prior to that. Meanwhile, the defending World Series champs just aren't very good right now (lost 10 of 13).
Tuesday's starting pitching battle shapes up as a total mismatch with Tanaka going for the Yanks and Kris Medlen going for the Royals. Tanaka deserves far better than his 3-3 TSR as he has a 2.29 ERA and 0.915 WHIP. Lately, he's been even sharper, including eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball at Baltimore his last time out. Medlen, on the other hand, has been tattooed in two of his last three outings. He gave up nine runs in just two innings his last time out.
Only five teams have scored fewer runs than the Yankees. One of them is the Royals. It's close, but KC has also played one more game. The Royals are also just 6-12 on the road. Look for Tanaka to earn a much deserved win here.
Scott Spreitzer
San Diego at Chicago
Pick: Chicago -1.5
Chicago is 24-6 on the season and 21 of the 24 wins covered the run line. All five of their wins with Jon Lester have also covered the 1 1/2 runs. The Cubs outscored the five opponents, 25 to 6! Lester has been tremendous for Chicago and he's had little trouble with the Padres in limited appearances against them. SDG will counter with Cesar Vargas, a right-hander off to a good start. But despite a solid ERA, he has a WHIP (1.35) that suggests it will head northward. He's also received just seven runs of support in three starts. It's highly unlikely his team will find the "sweet elixir" at the plate against Lester and the Cubs' bullpen. Meanwhile, when Vargas departs, he'll give way to a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA at 4.88. Vargas and the pen will face a Chicago offense averaging 6.13 rpg, tops in MLB. Finally, going back to last season, the Cubs have covered the run line in 26 of their last 29 wins and 42 of their last 50 wins. We feel the Cubs are in another winnable spot and we'll lay the 1 1/2 runs.
Marco D’Angelo
Cardinals at Angels
Play: Angels -123
The Angels play host to St Louis who has to travel west after a Big series against division rival Pittsburgh. St Louis has not been the same team this year that they have been in the past. St Louis will be facing lefty Hector Santiago. The Cardinals over the last several years have struggled when they have faced left handers. St Louis will send Mike Leake to the mound who has been a bust so far for the Cardinals. He’s made 6 starts and St Louis is just 2-4 in those 6 starts. His ERA is 6.03 this year with a WHIP of 1.34. If you look at just his road starts it’s even worse as his ERA is 6.75 and his WHIP is 2.03. Note the Angels in their last game lost 3-1 and when they have scored and allowed 3 runs or less in a game they are 31-16 in their next game. The Cardinals had yesterday off and over the last 3 seasons following a day off they when playing on the road they are just 9-20. Going back to the start of last season the Angels win when installed as a favorite as they are 47-24 as a home favorite of -110 or more. My numbers have The Angels winning 6-4.
Brandon Shively
Blue Jays at Giants
Play: Blue Jays
It’s just a matter of time before Matt Cain get’s pulled from the starting rotation and is auto fade material currently with a 1.71 WHIP/ 7.84 ERA. The Giants have lost his last five games. Cain has given up five home runs in his last three starts. He has given up 27 hits in his last 15.2 innings pitched. You get the idea...There are no positives for Matt Cain right now and I don’t see him getting any better. Even if he does miraculously throw a ‘decent’ game, I still have to believe the Blue Jays offense touches him up for 3-4 runs. I also think that will be enough as J.A. Happ gets the nod for Toronto. Happ has now allowed 3 earned runs or less in his last 16 starts dating back to last season. This year he has looked solid with a 1.18 WHIP. Given his streak of not allowing over 3 ER and what I have seen from him this season, I expect Happ to throw a ‘quality’ start tonight. Toronto’s bullpen has been solid over the last week also and has better numbers than the Giants bullpen does over the last week. San Francisco has now scored two runs or less in their last three games after scoring 24 in a stretch of two days. The bats have obviously cooled off.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Pick: Under 9
The Pirates have a strong pen and a strong starter with Juan Nicasio (3-3, 3.16 ERA) going, with 32 strikeouts in 31+ innings. He's allowed two earned runs or less in half his starts. Pittsburgh is 8-2 UNDER the total on the road against a team with a winning home record. They face a Cincinnati offense that is not impressive, #17 in baseball in runs scored, #29 in on base percentage. Cincy starter Alfredo Simon has some ugly overall numbers, but he comes off an impressive start in beating the Brewers, allowing three runs and one walk in 7+ innings. The Reds won a defensive duel yesterday, 3-2, and the UNDER is 9-3 in Simon's last 12 starts when the team allows two or fewer runs in their previous game.