Andy Iskoe
Cubs -1.5 -123
The Cubs' run line performance this season has been extraordinary and represents a very attractive option to laying the huge prices the Cubs are forced to lay and likely will be for the rest of the season. Of their 24 wins to date, 21 of them have been by 2 runs or more. That's a success rate of 87.5 percent. Even when highly priced to win the game straight the Run Line price has been modest in comparison. Tonight, for example, the game is priced at roughly minus 240 with the minus 1 1/2 runs priced at roughly minus 110. To put things in better perspective, as I write about in this week's edition of Gaming Today, the Cubs have a runs differential of plus 102, scoring 184 runs (most in the majors) while allowing just 82 (least in the majors). That differential of plus 102 works out to an average of more than 3 runs per game! Jon Lester has started well this season, pitching to a 1.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 6 starts (averaging 6 2/3 innings per start). San Diego's Cesar Vargas has also put up solid stats in his 3 MLB starts but will face on of baseball's best lineups. Part of the handicap was that last night San Diego was playing less than 24 hours after having been on the west coast for almost 3 straight weeks. Whereas that is not the case tonight as the Padres will have had an extra 24 hours to become acclimated to the time change the extra 24 hours will also benefit the Cubs and have their bullpen even fresher so the play stands as solid as was the case Monday night.
Bruce Marshall
NY Mets +106
The Dodgers are not getting much good work from starter Alex Wood, who has allowed five-plus runs in four of his six starts. And the Blue continues to skid with losses in 9 of its last 13 after Monday's 4-2 setback vs. Steven Matz and the Mets. Tonight New York's Jacob de Grom and his 1.99 ERA look a worthy recommendation.
Bob Balfe
Spurs -7
It is hard to go against a team that only lost twice on this floor all season. This is why teams work all year for positioning. Home court means almost everything in this spot. Once the Spurs get rolling it is hard to stop them and the bench is almost as good as the starting 5. Take the Spurs.
Red Sox -115
The Red Sox have been hitting the ball very well at home this year and will face a struggling A’s team that has struggled to produce runs. O’Sullivan will get his first start of the year for the Red Sox. Teams struggling with the bat always have issues with pitchers they have not faced. Manaea has been brutal in his limited work this year. If this game turns into a shoot out then I favor the Red Sox who have better hitting. Take Boston.
King Creole
Royals / Yankees Under 7
The OU line in this game opened at 7.5 runs, and has since been bet DOWN to 7 runs. That's kind of surprising, considering that 80% to 83% of the public money in this game has actually been wagered on the OVER (as we type this at 12:00pm NOON ET). So what does that tell us? The squares are betting the OVER… probably based solely on yesterday's results (Yankees hit 5 HR's). But the sharps are betting the UNDER, as they are the ones that have actually moved this line down a full HALF run.
Kansas City has struggled on offense this season, and they're currently not playing with full deck either (Top HR guy Moustakas is on the DL). So it's no surprise to see the Royals as one of the best UNDER teams in all of Baseball already this season (10-19-2 O/U). KC's average of only 3.4 offensive run per game is third WORST in the entire league (begin only Atlanta and Philadelphia). To make matters worse, the Royals will be facing a hot DOMINANT starting pitcher tonight in Masahiro Tanaka. He's definitely come out of the gate in 2016 on his 'A-GAME'. Tanaka has allowed 2 or LESS earned runs in EVERY start this season. Since going OVER in start #1, he's gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in his last five starts with an ERA of only 2.14. And he's off his BEST start of the year (8 innings of SHUTOUT ball against a great Oriole offense on the road). Not only that, but Tanaka's career ERA in home starts in the month of May is a speaking 1.87. And to tidy things up, this is the FIRST time the Royals have every faced him… so we have THAT advantage as well.
On the flip side, we also have a pretty poor offense for the home team. The Yankees come in ranked #24 in the league with an average of only 3.6 runs per game on offense. They come in with a 11-16-3 O/U record on the year, but we must note that against RIGHT- handed pitchers… they've gone 5-11-2 O/U (69% Unders). Yes, they'll be facing what looks to be an ineffective starting pitcher in Kris Medlen (6.85 ERA). But check out Medlen's splits. His ERA at home this year is a whopping 20.63! But on his three road starts, he's actually been very effective… with an ERA of only 2.16. AND he's gone a PERFECT 0-3 O/U in those three road starts. That's certainly good enough for us to pull the trigger on the UNDER… particularly when we factor in tonight's 'Man in Blue'…
The home plate Umpire for tonight's game is ANGEL HERNANDEZ. There's currently only THREE Major League Baseball Umpires who have YET to go OVER in a game this 2016 season… and Hernandez is one of them (out of 81 total Umps). Heading into tonight's game. Hernandez has an overall record of 0-5-1 O/U… with an average if only 5.3 combined runs per game. He has yet to go OVER 7 runs in any game this season.
Will Rogers
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
The Reds won Game 1 of this home series versus Pittsburgh by a score of 3-2, and the Pirates are a favorite again in Game 2. I like the Reds as a home dog plus the runs.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Juan Nicasio will get the call for the Pirates, and he's been brutal on the road. Nicasio (3-3, 3.16 ERA) gave up four runs on eight hits and three walks in just 4.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs in his last outing. He's 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA on the road. The Reds hand the ball to Alfredo Simon, who is coming off his first "W" of the season after a rough start.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Brandon Phillips comes in swinging a hot bat, he's hitting .321 with five home runs and nine RBIs over the last seven days. The Reds second baseman is 5-for-11 with a home run lifetime versus Nicasio.
3. X-Factor - Nicasio is 0-2 with a 5.15 ERA in his last three starts versus the Reds.
Jeff Benton
Your Tuesday freebie is the Mets over the Dodgers.
New York got the better of Los Angeles last night, taking the opener 4-2, and I see a similar result in the cards tonight.
It all comes down to pitching, and tonight the advantage again belongs to the Mets, as they send Jacob de Grom and his 3-1 mark with a 1.99 season ERA to the hill. de Grom will be opposed by Alex Wood who just has not looked comfortable in a Dodgers uniform since coming over from Atlanta last season.
Wood is just 1-3 with a bloated 5.18 ERA for the season, so chances he cracks first tonight appear to be better than even money if you ask me!
de Grom is 2-2 with a 2.76 ERA in his 5 career starts against the Dodgers, while Wood is 0-3 with an over 5 ERA in his 8 career appearances (7 starts) against the Mets.
This line is likely to rise as the day wears on, so load up on New York now!
3* N.Y. METS
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 53-41 run with free picks: Oakland at BOSTON (-120)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Boston Red Sox host the struggling Oakland Athletics, and I think I like the cheap price with the Crimson Hose tonight. Boston is in after winning two straight. It avoided a sweep versus the New York Yankees by winning on Sunday night, then romped the A's, 14-7, last night. Tonight the Red Sox continue to roll and win for a third straight night.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - I am not listing pitchers, but I like going against Oakland's Sean Manaea. The Athletics southpaw's first two major league starts were plagued by a few big innings that left a lot to be desired. He's the team's No. 2 prospect, and is in a rough spot with this one, having to face a riled up Red Sox team, which over a 13-6 span is averaging 5.8 runs per game and batting .307. Again, don't worry about listing pitchers, but Manaea is in big trouble tonight since the A's have lost three straight and seven of eight with a 7.80 ERA.
BOTTOM LINE is - Also worth mentioning, David Ortiz was 3 for 5 with two doubles and two RBIs last night, and is heating up. The veteran designated hitter is batting .366 with six home runs and 13 RBIs in his last 10 games. Then you add in Jackie Bradley Jr., who extended his career-high hitting streak to 15 games with a two-run single in Boston's six-run fourth, then added a grand slam two innings later last night, and this could be another blowout. Oakland has lost the last five games against Boston with the Red Sox batting .327.
4* RED SOX
Brad Wilton
My comp play winner for Tuesday is the Angels over the Cardinals.
Both teams have been disappointing this season, and while the Angels remain and injury-plagued team, tonight at least they get to face a pitcher who has not been able to get going with his new team.
Mike Leake is winless in his first 6 starts for St. Louis, and sports an ERA just over 6 to go with that ledger.
Leake is also 0-4 in interleague action on the road, and just 1-5 with an over 7 ERA over his last 8 interleague starts.
Hector Santiago has not been much better in his recent interlague assignments, but does benefit from pitching at home where he has gone 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA in his 19 starts at The Big "A".
There may be a few runs tonight, but I am looking for the Angels to get most of them.
Take Los Angeles over St. Louis.
2* L.A. ANGELS
Harry Bondi
PITTSBURGH -130 over Cincinnati
Pirates are trying to avoid the sweep by what is at best a mediocre Cincinnati Reds squad. Juan Nicasio, who already shut out the Reds earlier this season, goes for Pittsburgh. Nicasio has pitched 12 straight scoreless innings against the Reds and will be oppossed by "Chicken" Alfredo Simon, who is 1-3 with a 9.86 ERA. Cincy also has the leagues worst bullpen so once Chicken's gone, Pirates should continue to feast on the Reds pitching.