DAVE COKIN
ASTROS AT WHITE SOX
PLAY: ASTROS +101
I don’t think it’s too early for Houston fans to be really worried about their team’s pitching staff, most notably the erstwhile ace. Dallas Keuchel has really been scuffling and if he can’t get things turned around, it’s tough to envision this team contending for a second straight appearance in the playoffs.
Keuchel’s problems are twofold. He’s not a hard thrower to begin with, and his velocity is down a tick from where it as last season. Worse, his mechanics have been lousy, and that’s straight from the horse’s mouth. That’s a bad combination and as a result, Keuchel is getting knocked around, and he absorbed a fearful beating at the hands of the Red Sox in his most recent start.
The second to last start for Keuchel was very good, on the other hand, and he appears to understand what his issue is and is working on repairing the problem. I can’t say I’m brimming with confidence, but knowing how Keuchel approaches his craft, I think there’s still ample reason to believe he can turn things around.
Carlos Rodon will pitch for the White Sox tonight, and this talented southpaw is still suffering growing pains as a professional. There are sone positive signs, as Rodon’s lapses in command are lessening. I think Rodon is a future All-Star if he maintains good health. He’s got terrific stuff and that Rodon slider is just plain nasty. But I wouldn’t put him in the go with category right now.
This is one of those games where the numbers I work with to put together my lines don’t jibe with the eye test. Let’s face it, backing the Astros right now is problematic, and that’s putting it mildly. But I’m also one who believes in trusting the data as over the long haul in baseball, it’ll be right more often than not in isolating value. I have the Astros garnering the check marks on that count this evening. So while it clearly is accompanied by a substantial gulp, I’ll be backing the Houston side as long as they’re plus anything tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Cubs -173
The Cubs are 7-0 off a loss and 18-2 on the road vs division opponents that are behind them in the standings. They have Hendricks going and he is 4-1 vs the Brewers. Milwaukee has C. Anderson and his 7.43 home Era on the mound. The Brewers have lost 3 of 4 as a home dog in this range and the Cubs are 16-3 at night and averaging over 6 runs on the road. The Cubs also fit a solid database system that pertains to road favorites off a 1 run home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs.
Scott Spreitzer
Red Sox vs. Royals
Play: Red Sox -123
Boston has won five of their last seven visits to Kauffman Stadium and will face a struggling Royals' rotation. One of the starters having problems through the first six weeks of the campaign is Yordano Ventura. The KC righty has a low strikeout rate, while handing out free passes galore. Ventura has walked 28 batters in 37 innings on the season, including 14 in his last three starts, spanning just 14 innings of work. Ventura has been smacked for am 8.36 ERA & 2.07 WHIP in his last three outings. I expect his troubles to continue against the red-hot Boston bats. The Sox will counter with Rick Porcello, who is firing some of his best stuff in 2016. Porcello owns a 3.11 ERA on the season, to go along with a 0.99 WHIP, and a .212 BAA. And while he faces a KC offense ranked in the bottom-third in MLB in OBP and OPS, Ventura will face a Boston offense that ranks 1st in team batting average and OPS, and second only to the Cubs in OBP. Boston has won five straight against pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher and they're on a 6-1 run when Porcello toes the rubber. Meanwhile, the defending champs are having a tough time stringing together wins, having lost seven in a row following a win.
Art Aronson
Giants vs. Padres
Play:Padres +155
We think San Diego and Colin Rea are definitely worth a second look in this matchup. Rea (3-1, 4.24 ERA) gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out three and walking four over five innings in the first game of a double header vs. Chicago last Wednesday (we had a play on San Diego in both games that day and each would go on to cash, +220 and +200). Since April 8th Rea has posted a very respectable 3.25 ERA over 36 innings and note that he’s been particularly effective in “night” games this season, going 3-1 with a 2.42 ERA in such instances. The visitors counter with one of the best, Madison Bumgarner (4-2, 2.72) gave up one run off three hits over 6.2 innings in a no-decision vs. the Blue Jays on Wednesday. Bumgarner owns a 3.94 ERA on the road, swinging the value to the underdog home side in our opinion.
Matt Josephs
Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Under 6½
It's a battle of aces in New York as the Mets host the Nationals. Noah Syndergaard is 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA and a WHIP of 1.036 in seven starts for the home team with four of them going under the total. Last year Thor faced Washington three times sporting a 1.80 ERA and a WHIP of 1.000 in those games. The Nats are hitting .228 in NL East games and .242 overall on the season. Max Scherzer's numbers aren't great with a 4.15 ERA, but he is coming off a 20 strikeout effort against the Tigers at home. Scherzer has allowed 46 hits in 52 innings. His last two starts in New York were fantastic allowing one run and five hits while striking out 27 batters. He has held David Wright hitless in nine at-bats. The Mets enter this one hitting .221 in their last seven games and .226 at home. They scored just nine runs in a three game series at Coors Field managing just 27 hits overall. These two have gone under in 12 of their last 20 meetings in NYC. I think that trend continues.
John Ryan
Marlins vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies +103
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-19 mark good for 68% winners and has made 28.5 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) struggling NL offensive team scoring
Fundamental Discussion Points Phillies start Velasquez and he is the real deal posting a 4-1 record in 7 starts with a 2.70 ERA and a 0.992 WHIP. He has recorded 49 K’s with 13 BB in 43 1/3 innings of work. In 3 home starts he has posted a 0.93 ERA with a 0.724 WHIP recording 26 K’s with just 4 BB in 19 1/3 innings of work.
Marc Lawrence
Washington at New York
Pick: Washington
Edges - Nationals: Max Scherzer 16-5 last twenty-one team starts during May, including 12-4 away; and 12-9 last nineteen overall away team starts. NY Mets: 6-14 last twenty games as a host in this series. With Scherzer in strong KW form with 36 Ks and 3 BB’s his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Washington.
Jim Feist
Chicago at Milwaukee
Pick: Over
The Cubs have the best record in baseball as they sit atop the NL Central with a 27-9 record. Their road record is phenomenal at 13-3. The Cubs lost their final game of the three game set with Pittsburgh, 2-1. Today, Kyle Hendricks will start. Hendricks is 2-2 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Hendricks has pitched very well of late, allowing just three earned runs over his last 17.2 innings. The Brewers got off to that horrible start this year, and now have climbed out of last place to 16-22. The Brewers have allowed 205 runs this year. The pitching staff is 30th in the MLB in ERA, Quality Starts, WHIP and BAA. When they faced the Cubs back in April they allowed Chicago 11 runs over two games. The Cubs are 7-0-1 O/U their last eight road games. In addition, The Brewers have gone OVER in six of Chase Anderson's last seven starts. Anderson is 1-5 with a 6.11 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. Don't look for Anderson to stick around long today against a big hitting Cubs team.
Martin Griffiths
Olympiacos vs. AEK Athens
Play: Olympiacos -151
Olympiacos Piraeus will travel across the city to face rivals AEK Athens in today’s Greek Cup Final, with Piraeus expected to claim victory and the honours.
Olympiacos have been the dominating force in Greek football over the past couple of decades, earning 18 of the last 20 league titles. The Red-Whites have been just as overwhelming this season, topping the table by 30 points and winning their previous 10 consecutive matches. All the evidence indicates that Marco Silva’s side should be able to continue their form and easily beat rivals AEK tonight, capitalising on another excellent domestic campaign.
Although AEK won their last home encounter with Piraeus in February, the Yellow-Blacks have been struggling in their recent fixtures, earning just 4 wins in their past 10 games. Stelios Manolas’ squad faltered to defeat in their opening play-off match against PAOK last week, and will be distracted by the important upcoming weekend fixture with Panionios. AEK will not be entering the Greek Cup Final with much confidence or focus, and therefore cannot be considered with any confidence.
Olympiacos supporters should expect a comfortable derby victory tonight against their rivals, successfully retaining the cup and earning the domestic double.
Jimmy Boyd
Nationals +118
Washington is showing great value here as an underdog against the Mets on Tuesday. The Nationals wills send out their ace Max Scherzer, who is coming off a dominant performance against the Tigers. Scherzer struck out 20 while going the distance and I look for him to build off that outing. He's had more than his fair share of success against the Mets, posting a 2.33 ERA and 0.906 WHIP in 7 career starts against New York. He was especially dominant in his two road starts against the Mets last year, allowing 1 run over 16 innings, including his 17 strikeout no hitter in early October.
New York counters with the talented Noah Syndergaard. While he's a more than capable starter, he does have a not so great 3.66 ERA over his last 3 starts and New York has dropped 2 of his 3 career starts against Washington. The Mets also come into this game having lost 4 straight after getting swept by the Rockies in Colorado.
The Nationals had yesterday off an are a dominant 39-17 in their last 56 after not playing the previous day. Washington is also 4-1 in their last 5 during Game 1 of a series and 6-2 in Scherzer's last 8 road starts.
Ari Atari
Giants vs. Padres
Play; Giants -140
The Giants are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these 2 teams and 4-0 in Bumgarners last 4 starts. Bumgarner 3-0, 1.69 over the last five meetings.The Padres have allowed 11 runs in their last three games compared to the Giants who've only allowed 5 in the same span. The Giants have won 5 in a row overall and own a major edge here to grab a 6th win while they continue to be represented extremely well on the mound.
Michael Alexander
Red Sox vs. Royals
Play: Red Sox -125
Boston Starter Porcello has gone at least six innings in 15 consecutive starts going back to last season and turned in a quality start in six straight. The New Jersey native scattered three runs and six hits across 6 2/3 innings against Oakland on Wednesday in a game Boston went on to win 13-3. Porcello has plenty of experience against Kansas City from his time in Detroit and is 8-6 with a 4.58 ERA in 20 career starts against the Royals.
Larry Ness
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have hit 55 HRs, 31 of which have come at home where they are a MLB-best 16-6.
The Seattle Mariners went 76-86 last season and finished 12 games back of the AL West-winning Texas Rangers. However, Seattle is currently 21-16 and .004 percentage points ahead of Texas for first-place in the AL West, as they get set to open a three-game series at Camden Yards against the Orioles. Baltimore was 81-81 last season (also 12 games back of AL East winner Toronto), after capturing the division in 2014 with 96 wins. Baltimore currently sits in first-place in the AL East (23-13) while leading the majors with 55 HRs, 31 of which have come at home where the Orioles are a MLB-best 16-6.
The Mariners own the AL’s best road record (13-6, plus-$816 vs the moneyline), having outscored opponents on average 5.16-to-3.53 RPG. Seattle is batting 268 and averaging 5.2 runs on the road, compared to hitting .218 and averaging 3.7 runs at home. Seattle visits Camden Yards off three consecutive home losses to the LA Angels, blowing ninth-inning leads in the first two and managing just two singles off Hector Santiago through eight of Sunday's 3-0 defeat. "We were right in every game, we just didn't get it done. It's going to happen," manager Scott Servais said. "As high as we were early in the week, to have it flip on us on the weekend is frustrating, but we've played well on the road."
Seattle had won EIGHT of 10 prior to the sweep and has won four straight started by Wade Miley (3-2, 4.91 ERA), who looks to reverse last season's struggles in Baltimore and against the AL East. Miley went 2-7 with a 5.38 ERA in 14 AL East starts with Boston in 2015 and was hit hard in two losses at Camden Yards, surrendering 14 hits and 11 ERs over just 6.1 innings (note: in three career starts vs Baltimore he owns a 10.13 ERA). However, he comes into this contest having held opponents to a .198 average while going 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA over his past four outings.
The Orioles saw their seven-game winning streak end with Sunday’s 6-5 loss to the Tigers, when J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera homered on consecutive pitches off Darren O'Day in the eighth inning. Baltimore is hoping for a bounce-back effort Tuesday from Ubaldo Jimenez (2-3, 4.87 ERA) in the erratic right-hander's first meeting with Seattle since 2013. After working a season-high eight innings in a 5-2 victory over Oakland on May 7, he allowed four ERs on nine hits and walked four in five-plus Thursday against Detroit. He’s made five career starts vs Seattle, going 2-1 with 4.02 ERA (teams are 3-2). I’m backing the home team here.
Jesse Schule
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals +15
The defending champions are 5.5 games out of first place in the AL Central, but they are coming off a 2-1 series win over the Braves this weekend. They host the Red Sox in Game 1 of a home series tonight, and I like the Royals as the underdog here. Yordano Ventura will toe the rubber for the Royals, and he's off to a fine start to the season. Ventura (3-2, 4.62 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits over six innings in a win over the Yankees in the Bronx his last time out. He's 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in three home starts in 2016. The Red Sox will counter with Rick Porcello, who is also pitching well this season. Porcello (6-1, 3.11 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits over six innings in a win over the A's his last time out. He hasn't really fooled Kansas City, going 2-3 with a 4.66 ERA in his last five starts versus the Royals.
Power Sports
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates
The price is a bit steep, but considering we're going against the Braves, why wouldn't it be? I was on Pittsburgh last night as they came through with a relatively easy 8-5 victory. It was a 3-0 lead after just one inning and 8-2 going into the eighth. Atlanta is now just 9-28 on the year and has been outscored by 67 runs
Again, while we're having to lay a lot of juice, it seems safe to do so considering the Bucs are 14-4 the L3 seasons at home in the -175 to -200 range on the money line. Last night was just the second time all year that situation presented itself and they're now 2 for 2. I actually like tonight's starter (Juan Nicasio) a little more than I did last night's (Jon Niese) even though Nicasio is coming off B2B shaky outings. But remember so was Niese.
Atlanta has lost 19 of its last 24 games overall and has not won a series against Pittsburgh since August of 2014. They are just 3-8 head to head and tonight they have a winless pitcher toeing the rubber as Aaron Blair gets the baseball. Blair didn't last very long his last time out, giving up four runs in just 3 2/3 innings and that was against the Phillies, who are MLB's second lowest scoring team. I should mention that Atlanta is the lowest scoring team in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's offense ranks 4th in batting average and 3rd in OBP, so we should start to see more runs out of them moving forward.