Wunderdog
San Jose @ St. Louis
Pick: San Jose +119
Talented San Jose gave it their all in Game 1, with an edge in shots 32-23, going 40-30 on face-offs with only two turnovers. The Sharks were the best road team in the NHL in the regular season at 28-10-3. San Jose has a strong defense and veteran stars Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. San Jose has great balance all around, fourth in goals scored, #10 in goals allowed and third on the power play. The Sharks are 16-5 after scoring two or fewer goals in their previous game, plus 19-7 against a team with a winning record. St. Louis is off a pair of Game 7s and they're just 4-4 at the Scottrade Center this postseason. In those four home losses they were favored -115, -125, -150 and -165. The Blues have averaged more than 10 minutes in penalties a game in these playoffs while the Sharks have averaged the fewest penalty minutes of any of the 16 playoff teams, having fewer penalty minutes in Game 1, as well (6-4). San Jose has more than enough to even the series, so take San Jose.
Kevin Rogers
Braves vs. Pirates
Play:Braves +175
For as bad as the Braves have been this season, Atlanta has one strong backing them. The Braves have won five consecutive road games after losing the series opener, as Atlanta fell to Pittsburgh last night, 8-5. Atlanta has been competitive away from Turner Field this season at 7-11, while Pittsburgh owns a mediocre 8-7 record at PNC Park after last night's win. Juan Nicasio takes the mound for Pittsburgh, as the righty hasn't been listed as a favorite of -150 or higher this season, while allowing 4 ER in each of his last two starts. Rookie Aaron Blair continues to search for his first win since getting traded to the Braves in the offseason, as his best start came at Wrigley Field, tossing six innings of two-hit ball in a 6-1 loss to the Cubs. I'll back the Braves to knock off the Pirates.
Steve Janus
Reds vs. Indians
Play: Under 8
Play Under - Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (CINCINNATI) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or more over his last 5 starts, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games. This system is 42-15 (74%) against the total since 1997.
Ray Monohan
Texas Rangers 113
The Rangers were shutdown on Monday, but can expect a bounce back game here with their ace on the hill. Cole Hamels has been stellar this year as he sits 4-0 with an ERA of just 2.95. Hamels is 11-1 in 19 starts as a member of the Rangers during the regular season and has just a 1.29 ERA in his career against Oakland.
Oakland will call up Jesse Hahn here, who has struggled against Texas in his career. Hahn has gone 0-1 with a 6.52 ERA in 2 starts against them. Don't disregard Oakland's struggles at home, as they have gone 6-11 SU while struggling to score as they have just 3 runs per game.
Some trends to consider. Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. Rangers are 9-2 in their last 11 Tuesday games.
Expect a solid bounce back here from Texas, as they even the series with the Athletics.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -116
The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the most underrated teams in baseball all season. They currently have the best record in the American League at 23-13 thanks to a torrid stretch of late in winning seven of their last eight games overall.
Ubaldo Jimenez is the better starter in this matchup despite his 4.87 ERA through seven starts. Jimenez is 2-1 with a 4.02 ERA in five career starts against Seattle, giving up exactly two earned runs in each of his last two starts against the Mariners.
Wade Miley sports a 4.91 ERA in seven starts this season, and a 5.48 ERA in four road starts. But the biggest knock on Miley heading in is that he's never beaten the Orioles, going 0-2 with a massive 10.13 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in three career starts against them.
Jimenez is 14-1 (+13.3 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. Jimenez is 12-1 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last two seasons. Baltimore is 15-3 (+10.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Orioles are 11-1 (+9.8 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.
Brandon Lee
Marlins -118
The fact that Miami is favored on the road against the Phillies here really says a lot about what the books think of Philadelphia. These two teams have almost identical records and Phillies starter Vincent Velasquez has the better overall numbers here against Wei-Yen Chen. The betting public will be on Philadelphia, but my money is on the Marlins. Miami is 16-6 over their last 22 and it's only a matter a time before the Phillies fall out of contention with that poor excuse of an offense. It's also worth noting that Chen is 2-0 with a 3.37 ERA and 0.975 WHIP over 2 road starts and is coming off a strong outing where he struck out 12 in 6 1/3 against the Brewers. Velasquez is trending in the wrong direction. He's given up 8 runs on 12 hits and 3 walks in his last 2 starts. One of those against the Marlins.
Brian Hay
San Diego Padres +160
The San Francisco Giants have looked very shaky so far this season. The bullpen has struggled quite a bit with a 4.01 ERA. Their defense rates towards the bottom in defensive efficiency after placing near the top last year. Today's starter Madison Bumgarner has not had the dominating performances that we've been accustomed to seeing. His walk rate is up considerably and it could be that the heavy workloads of years past are catching up with him. The San Diego Padres are playing hard and have bounced back after a really slow start to the season. Colin Rea get the start tonight and he came very close to a no-hitter a couple of starts ago. San Diego has the value on their side in the line being this high.
ASA
San Diego Padres +160
The Giants are a heavy road favorite here. Certainly that is somewhat understandable considering Madison Bumgarner is on the hill for San Francisco but, considering all circumstances here, this is offering tremendous line value to the underdog in this match-up. Bumgarner did lose in the most recent start he made at San Diego. Also, the Padres just had a look at him 3 weeks ago in San Francisco. Though the Giants southpaw fared well against San Diego, they should make the most of getting another look at him tonight in a span of less than a month. The big "X-factor" in this match-up is the fact that the Giants have never faced Colin Rea. The Padres right-hander has led his team to a 3-0 in his past three starts while compiling a 3.32 ERA. Rea also has a 3.00 ERA in his home starts this season. San Diego is 3-1 this season when playing with a day off and also 8-4 this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Giants are 1-3 this season in road games with a total set at 7 runs or less. That record is also a money-burning 37-48 the last three seasons combined. In other words, don't be surprised if Rea excels against the Giants in their first-ever look at him while the Padres lineup scratches enough off of Bumgarner to get the upset victory in this one.
Dave Price
Boston Red Sox -124
Rick Porcello has been the best starter for the Boston Red Sox this season. He has gone 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in seven starts this year with 46 strikeouts in 46 1/3 innings. The Red Sox come into this series as one of the hottest teams in baseball with a 7-1 record in their last eight games. They are simply hitting the cover off the ball right now, scoring at least 5 runs in eight straight. That should continue against Yordano Ventura, who is 3-2 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in 7 starts, including 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in his last three. Ventura is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in three lifetime starts against the Red Sox.
SPORTS WAGERS
Updated Series - San Jose +183 over ST. LOUIS
The Blues have been outshot in the past two playoff games by a count of 64-42 but have outscored the opposition 8-2 over that span. We often talk about puck luck but the Blue Notes’ puck luck has been off the charts in the postseason. Of course it can last another game, another series or for the rest of the playoffs but if all things are equal, St. Louis will not defeat San Jose again. In Game 1, St. Louis scored the cheapest goal that Martin Jones has allowed this entire series. It was a long distance shot right in his jersey logo but squeezed in behind him. Meanwhile, San Jose hit two goalposts and one crossbar with two of those occurring in the final two minutes. From the second period on, St. Louis was on their heels, getting outshot 24-12 in the final two periods.
Hockey is not always fair. The better team loses all the time and we completely understand that the Sharkies could lose here again because Brian Elliott has won about 10 of the Blues’ 15 playoff games completely on his own. At the end of the day, however, we’ll take our chances with the superior team taking back a tag and it really is that simple.
The line on tonight’s game is San Jose +110 or thereabouts and that is not a bad wager at all. However, we much prefer the adjusted Series line of +183 because if St. Louis does happen to win tonight, our wager is still alive. We highly doubt that the Blues are going to win any games in San Jose so even if the Sharks lose tonight, we trust them to extend this series far enough to allow them to take one game in St. Louis and finish the Blues off at home at some point. The Series wager has more appeal and more value.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT -108 over Minnesota
Mike Pelfrey brings a 0-4 record into this start with an ERA of 5.80 after seven starts. He also has a BB/K split of 17/20 in 36 frames. Pelfrey’s surface stats take another hit with a WHIP of 1.85 and an oppBA of .338. Mike Pelfrey has very little market appeal but under the hood, things are starting to improve greatly. Pelfrey’s average velocity is up to 92 MPH. He has an improving 10% swing and miss rate overall but that rate was 14% in his last start. There are other things to like about Pelfrey too. His 52% groundball rate is solid. His GB rate in his last start against the Orioles was 63%. Slowly but surely, Pelfrey is getting stronger and more effective. Pelfrey walked 12 batters in his first three starts over 14 innings. In two of his last four starts, he hasn’t walked anyone. Because all of his surface stats are horrible, Pelfrey’s stock is as low as any starter’s in the game but we don’t buy surface stats so this is a great opportunity to buy Pelfrey at a rock-bottom price against what might be the worst starter in baseball.
Phil “Fastball Down the Middle” Hughes will get paid 10M this season so unless he collapses on the field, the Twinkies will run him out there every fifth day. He does throw strikes though. In 2014, Hughes posted career-best hr/9 & hr/f rates and it looked as if his HR nightmares were left behind in New York. However, hitters had no problem taking Hughes deep in 2015, with monthly hr/9 rates of 1.5 or more until September. Opposing hitters slugged .605 off Hughes' fastball in 2015, to the point of a career high hr/f and hr/9. 2014’s hr/f and hr/9 look like outliers. Hughes' chronic back issues forced him to the DL in mid-August last year and may have been at least a contributing factor in the steady velocity decline that bottomed out at 89 mph in September. Hughes has a 5% swing and miss rate this year. His velocity tops out at 90.4 MPH but his average velocity is 89.2. Hughes is a two-pitch pitcher. He throws a fastball right down Broadway or a cutter right down Broadway. Hughes’ makes Bartolo Colon’s pitch mix look brilliant. If there is a worse pitcher or more hittable pitcher in baseball than Phil Hughes, we have not seen him yet. He’s been tagged for five bombs in his last 11 innings. The Twins have lost his last three starts by scores of 9-2, 16-4 and 9-2. He is batting practice out there and it’s getting worse. He does throw strikes though.
PHILADELPHIA +112 over Miami
Wei-Yin Chen is coming off a 12 strikeout game in six innings against the Brewers. 12 K’s in one game will never happen again for Chen because he’s never been a big strikeout guy and the Brewers have never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Take out those 12 K’s in six frames and Chen would have 24 K’s all year in 37 innings. Chen's greatest asset is his ability to limit the free pass, as his elite first-pitch strike rate and ball% will keep his control in tip-top shape. Chen's K-rate/swing and miss combo has remained relatively flat, which limits the odds for any overall gains. Outside of his pin-point control, all of Chen’s other skills remain below league average. If he had more to offer, a starting-pitching desperate team like the Orioles would not have let him walk. Chen faced the Phillies two starts ago in Miami and threw a four-run mess in five innings and didn’t strike out a single batter. He’ll now switch venues against the same team and this park is not close to being as pitcher-friendly as his own.
Meanwhile, Vincent Velasquez's skills are tantalizing. He consistently racks up a lot of strikeouts, and it's fully supported by a high rate of swings and misses. His control is a work in progress, as he's had two outings with no walks this year while in three others he's issued at least three free passes. He's trending in the right direction, though, and his first-pitch strike rate of 64% looks good. Velasquez got off to a ridiculous start, with 25 strikeouts and no runs allowed in his first two starts of the year, and while he's predictably fallen off of that pace, the overall line is still impressive. With 49 K’s in 43 innings (just 13 walks), and a groundball rate that is increasing every game, Velasquez is a far better option taking back a tag than Chen is spotting one. It’s a rare day when the Phillies don’t score four runs or more in a game and with Velasquez going it makes this wager a very worthy one.
ARIZONA -1½ +178 over N.Y. Yankees
The Yankees went into Arizona last night and got hammered 12-2. It was a rare opportunity for baseball fans in the region to see the Yanks and they came out in droves. The joint was packed and it was rocking, as the D-backs kept piling on the runs and we can absolutely see a carryover of that here. The Yanks are just not well-suited to play on a fast track like Chase Field and now they’ll have to deal with Zack Greinke.
Six years, $206.5 million, and a 5.26 ERA through his first eight starts. Zack Greinke obviously hasn't lived up to preseason expectations and he certainly won't be repeating his sub-2.00 ERA from 2015 but he can't suddenly be this bad, right? Well, 2015 isn't coming back but Greinke will be fine. A trifecta of bad fortune (hit%/strand%, hr/f) has wreaked havoc on Greinke's ERA. His xERA is a touch off from previous seasons, but ERA improvement is absolutely, 100% forthcoming. Greinke's command sub-indicators (first-pitch strike%, ball%, swing and miss rate) are all in fine shape so there is no reason to worry about a potential BB spike or drop in Ks. The velocity gap between Greinke's fastball and changeup (+3.3 mph) has been closing in recent seasons, but he's countered with an increasingly filthy slider (21% swing and miss rate in 2015; 23% in 2016). While Greinke's awful start may have bettors worried, things check out just fine under the hood and that puts us in a great position to buy him at an incredibly low price here. While a fourth straight sub-3.00 ERA might be too much to ask, Greinke's early-season struggles will likely be a distant memory by season's end and it very likely begins here against one of the more beatable teams in MLB. Invest.
Vegas Butcher
Philadelphia Phillies +115
A top-15 starter at home at plus odds? I have to take it. Throw in the fact that Miami’s key relievers have all pitched 3 straight games (and will very very likely not be available tonight), and you have to like Philly’s chances here.
Detroit Tigers -109
At these odds the bookmakers are saying that the Twins are a ‘better’ team in this matchup. Sure Pelfrey has been bad, but it’s not like Hughes is lighting it up (1.7 HR/9; 4.8 FIP, 6.4 ERA). Detroit is at home and their offense has a significant edge in this one. Lots of value on the kitties as I have them at -127.
Chicago White Sox -107
Keuchel still carries the ‘name recognition’ but not the production. Though his 5.6 ERA is inflated (4.1 SIERA), so is Rodon’s 5.0 mark (3.9 SIERA). Chicago should be around -117 here so I’ll grab them tonight.
Boston Red Sox -125
Something is really wrong with Ventura. His velocity is way down (over 2 MPH), his ERA of 4.6 is deflated due to a low 0.236 BABIP mark (SIERA of 6.0!), and he ranks 141st out of 145 qualified starters. Boston’s #2 ranked offense against righties could be very problematic here. I have Boston at -150 in this one.
Arizona Diamondbacks -121
Greinke at home against an offense that can’t hit, in a bounce-back spot for him. At these odds, it’s pretty much a no-brainer.
Texas Rangers -115
Hamels against a guy that’s been pitching in triple-A most of the year. Rangers have a much rested BP as well tonight. Plus Texas sports a #1 ranked fielding unit compared to #30 for the A’s. In a close game, a key defensive play could be the difference here.
GoodFella
Arizona -130 1st Half
A definite SP edge here IMO. NYY starter Pineda just a mess this season & I for sure trust Greinke (who's been much better of late) more than Pineda this evening. I fully expect these D-Backs to get to Pineda eventually. I also look for Greinke to limit this Yankees lineup (especially with no DH). There is a monster edge to the NYY bullpen wise and I shall simply take that bullpen edge out of the equation here. Bottom line for me is that I see good value on these D-Backs in this spot for the 1st 5 innings only & I'm on ARIZONA for the 1st 5 innings this evening.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON -130 over Kansas City
Got rained out of this one Monday but we will stick with it as the Red Sox are just crushing the ball right now. Bostons will start Rick Porcello and his 6-1 record and 3.11 ERA on the hill tonight. Yordano Ventura goes tonight for KC and he has struggled lately going 1-2 with a 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts. Boston has scored 73 runs over the last 10 games and Kansas City's offense isn't exactly sizzling right now so let's back the red hot Red Sox over the Royals tonight.
Bob Balfe
Raptors +11
The Cavs are the better team and probably will win this series, but they have been resting for over a week while Toronto has been in survival mode in every single game. I expect there to be a little bit of rust from Cleveland tonight. If the Raptors can win the first quarter we should be able to keep this game inside of this generous number.
Rangers -115
Cole Hamels has been awesome this year and even better when pitching on the road. The A’s made a pitching change today and will go with Jesse Hahn who has done very little work this year. Texas is great against right handed pitching and this will be a classic case of Oakland just not being able to produce enough runs to win this game. Oakland’s only shot is a low scoring 1-0 type game.